News Article: An analytical look at the upcoming season

[DaveMatthew]

Thought this was very well written piece: The Rudderless Ship that is the Ottawa Senators - The Point

Some highlights:

But the Senators clearly don’t know what they don’t know. It bit them last season and it’s going to bite them again this season.

Back to the recent quotes from Dorion, who said, “We’re going to be a more competitive defensive team and that comes from the players competing more. How we can be a better defensive team is you compete in your own end harder than anyone else.”

No, it’s not. You become a better defensive team by playing less in your own end, managing the puck effectively when you have it and getting it back when you don’t. As mentioned, the Senators spent the 2nd most amount of time of any team in their own end last season, had the highest turnover rate and also had the lowest defensive zone takeaway rate, at 24%. Call it a lack of effort if you want. I’ll call it a lack of talent.

Believe me, I would love nothing more than to be proven wrong. However, the decision-makers in Ottawa haven’t shown they understand what the team’s deficiencies are, how deep they run or how to fix them. These same people are the ones leading “the rebuild.” A rebuild that saw the most talented player in franchise history dealt to the Sharks for two depth players, two mid-level prospects, a 1st and a 2nd round pick. Underwhelming is an understatement.

Click to read more...

 

[Pangu]

Yeah - fair article

 

[The Lewler]

Ya he was on TGOR this morning saying same thing. Nailed it

 

[starling]

What's not to like? Looking at capfriendly, pretty sure Patrick f***ing Sieloff is the only player we signed to non-ELC 2+ year contract since the start of last season.
OTTAWA RISING my ass.

 

[slamigo]

I prefer that poster from the Oilers board. The 'rainman' guy who actually sees Ottawa poised to challenge in 2 years. Hopeful.

 

[Ouroboros]

Sounds like some nerd garbage to me.

Once Boro and Harpur get out there and start banging bodies, Ceci starts triple clutching on every decision with the puck, DeMelo starts doing whatever the f*** it is he's supposed to be good at - it's going to be fine. We're going to be more than the sum of our parts. A team.

 

[Karl Prime]

Pretty much spot on. The goaltending saved the team in 16-17 and last season it screwed the team.

 

[BondraTime]

I prefer that poster from the Oilers board. The 'rainman' guy who actually sees Ottawa poised to challenge in 2 years. Hopeful.

The guy who has Kris Russel as the #1 D in the league towards contending?

Wish him all the best in his health, but don't think his work is very reliable, to say the least

 

[slamigo]

The guy who has Kris Russel as the #1 D in the league towards contending?

Wish him all the best in his health, but don't think his work is very reliable, to say the least

Reminds me of this clip from Bob's Burgers.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

There's no advanced stat to measure being punched in the face by Mark Borowiecki

 

[Canadian Time]

Analytics can't predict the future, they can only analyze the past. You would have to assume that every single player remains the same, no new players or improvement from young ones. They don't take into account off years (ie goaltending) or system changes.

Therefore in no way can these stats give a look at an upcoming season. He's a fantasy writer.

 

[coladin]

I am slooooowly coming around to analytics, in a way. I just feel the eye test is pretty spot on for me.

Does it seem like a top notch goalie will be in front of a team that has bad analytics? Imagine, the Sabres analytics with Hasek. Colorado with Roy? Colorado was a great team, but what would analytics say ?

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

The first 4 letters of analytical sum up the article...

 

[CTC]

Analytics can't predict the future, they can only analyze the past. You would have to assume that every single player remains the same, no new players or improvement from young ones. They don't take into account off years (ie goaltending) or system changes.

Therefore in no way can these stats give a look at an upcoming season. He's a fantasy writer.

This is disingenuous...every fantasy player or HUT/BE a GM mode user out there uses previous/recent stats and line mates/news to build their daily/weekly/annually picks for points.
It's like saying that you can't know that TB is going to be good this year or that Toronto might not score a lot....you know they will be by past performances, current roster, projected schedule, etc...stats.
Even BM once said in an interview that he rather be the team with the puck then without it, why, because you can't get scored on if you have the puck.
Advanced stats miss out on the emotion of the game but for sure can be a precursor of what's to come...like literally this applies to all aspects of our society, hockey is not exempt.

 

[BondraTime]

Eye test is definitely more useful for me, and it will always be the most useful for scouting, but advanced stats definitely are useful when used appropriately. Very useful.

 

[BonkTastic]

We're going to be more than the sum of our parts........

.............................. A team.

Fixed that for you.

 

[Karl Prime]

Eye test is definitely more useful for me, and it will always be the most useful for scouting, but advanced stats definitely are useful when used appropriately. Very useful.

I mean, in the case of the Sens, the eye test and analytics do go hand-in-hand. It was painfully obvious the last two seasons that they didn't spend enough time in the offensive zone and spent too much time in the defensive zone. It was also clear that EK was the only guy that could consistently get the puck out with possession, and that goaltending was the biggest difference between the two seasons.

 

[Engineer]

ok

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Lets pray Anderson has another 16/17 season. Please please please.

 

[BondraTime]

I mean, in the case of the Sens, the eye test and analytics do go hand-in-hand. It was painfully obvious the last two seasons that they didn't spend enough time in the offensive zone and spent too much time in the defensive zone. It was also clear that EK was the only guy that could consistently get the puck out with possession, and that goaltending was the biggest difference between the two seasons.

Well, yeah. That's the eye test. You don't need any advanced stats to know that watching last year.

 

[BondraTime]

Analytics are used for predictions in every facet of the industrialized world. Your claim isn't based in reality.

Even if he was able to (very, very big if) we don't have the offence or defence to squeak out wins.

We are going to be out shot and our chanced in 80+% of our games. Even if Anderson bails us out like he did 2 years ago, we won't have the team to pounce (Karlsson and Hoffman with 17g, 71p and 26g, 61p to lead the team in points), especially without Karlsson having a Norris trophy calibre season.

 

[DueDiligence]

Pretty much spot on. The goaltending saved the team in 16-17 and last season it screwed the team.

Actually they were just as bad as everyone else. Screwing them would mean the team actually was OK defensively which they were not.

 

[Karl Prime]

Well, yeah. That's the eye test. You don't need any advanced stats to know that watching last year.

Unfortunately for us, if the guys in charge knew that, then they wouldn't have thought we were a Matt Duchene away from being a Stanley Cup contender and the mess this team is in wouldn't be half as bad. The numbers could have helped bring Dorion and company back to ground instead of thinking that the amazing playoff run they had was indicative of the type of team they had (thinking they were a top 10 team with no weaknesses instead of a middling team with amazing goaltending and the best blueliner).

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Lets pray Anderson has another 16/17 season. Please please please.

He’s gonna have to be closer to 12/13.

He can suck next year for all I care, unless we trade our 1st again.

 

[Countdown0]

tl;dr its gonna be ass, and we wont even get a lottery pick from it because our GM is incompetent.