Blue Jays Discussion: Alright, no more discontent. Just baseball | ST in Mtl: StL @ Tor | Mar 26/27 7pm ET/4pm PT

[BlueForever75]

Nah, Stroman is better. Im not sure people realize how good he actually is.

Severino showed what he could do in the playoffs last season, NOTHING. Stroman was our best pitcher in our playoff seasons. Just saying.

 

[TF97]

Severino showed what he could do in the playoffs last season, NOTHING. Stroman was our best pitcher in our playoff seasons. Just saying.

Nothing against Stroman, but for me, Estrada was the best pitcher for the team during those playoff seasons.

 

[BlueForever75]

Nothing against Stroman, but for me, Estrada was the best pitcher for the team during those playoff seasons.

Case in point we had at least 2 starters Estrada and Stroman that were better then Severino was last season.

Point is I am not afraid of the Yankees pitching staff. I am afraid of the potential that their starting 9 possesses but I think there are just as many what-ifs in Yankee land as in Jays land. But because they are the Yankees everyone cringes. Not me!!

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Nah, Stroman is better. Im not sure people realize how good he actually is.

It depends what one values in starting pitchers. If they value strikeouts, and place a premium on getting batters out independent of contact, then Severino was better in 2017. If they think the ability to generate groundballs, and efficiently navigate through lineps by getting outs in different ways, then Stroman was better 2017.

Its an interesting comparison!

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Severino showed what he could do in the playoffs last season, NOTHING. Stroman was our best pitcher in our playoff seasons. Just saying.

This is silly.

 

[Discoverer]

This is silly.

Are you suggesting it's better to evaluate a pitcher based on 200 major league IP over the course of a full season instead of a few crappy starts in the playoffs? Are you insane???

 

[BlueForever75]

Are you suggesting it's better to evaluate a pitcher based on 200 major league IP over the course of a full season instead of a few crappy starts in the playoffs? Are you insane???

Then I guess your in the bunch that was behind David Price being electric getting us to the playoffs but falling flat on his face after we got there!!!

Stroman was fantastic in both regular season and playoffs back-to-back seasons, not to mention last season had a fantastic season. If and when Severino can put together back-to-back seasons like last year but produce in playoffs as well, then I will give kudos where it is due. But not even slightly afraid of what he brings to the Yankees rotation. Gray and Tanaka is more of a given then anyone on that staff.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Are you suggesting it's better to evaluate a pitcher based on 200 major league IP over the course of a full season instead of a few crappy starts in the playoffs? Are you insane???

I've been known to lose my mind from time to time, yes.

Then I guess your in the bunch that was behind David Price being electric getting us to the playoffs but falling flat on his face after we got there!!!

Stroman was fantastic in both regular season and playoffs back-to-back seasons, not to mention last season had a fantastic season. If and when Severino can put together back-to-back seasons like last year but produce in playoffs as well, then I will give kudos where it is due. But not even slightly afraid of what he brings to the Yankees rotation. Gray and Tanaka is more of a given then anyone on that staff.

This is silly.

 

[BlueForever75]

Is Severino another Hideki Irabu or Dontrell Willis?

Is Aaron Judge another Kevin Maas?

Time will tell.

 

[zeke]

Braves want Ronald Acuna to wear his hat straight; here's why that's dumb

I dont believe this is coming from AA but you have to think this concept cant be pushed without AA's approval.

I knew Travis Snider was a bad apple the first time I saw him wear his hat crooked.

 

[Nineteen67]

The key for our lineup is not to have a black hole. Health is a no brainer but they need production too.

The importance of a wRC+ of 150-160 for Donaldson, 120+ for Smoak and 115+ for Travis is key as they will be the drivers. Need at least 95+ from Martin, Tulo and Pillar. Ideally you are getting better than league average from Morales. The wildcards and difference makers will be Grichuk and Granderson/Pearce. Ideally you get 100-110 wRC+ from them but i think they have the strong potential to do more. If you get those numbers the Jays should be fine. 100-105 from Solarte and 100 Diaz would be suitable as well. If not those exact numbers from those exact players but some variation of that.

Smoak is my biggest concern in this equation.

 

[The Nemesis]

Is Severino another Hideki Irabu or Dontrell Willis?

Is Aaron Judge another Kevin Maas?

Time will tell.

Severino's 2017 is already basically more impactful than the entirety of Irabu's career.

And Dontrelle Willis had 3 very good years and 1 great year before his arm blew up and he could no longer hide his flaws behind his 90+ FB and funky mechanics. If Severino were to go that path that ends with him wrecking on an arm injury, he could probably do worse than emulating Willis' career trajectory up to that point.

Kevin Maas also was only good for part of a season, not even a whole one. You might as well be comparing Judge to Josh Phelps.

Your comparisons aren't really all that apt. And it still dodges the issue that significantly weighting playoff performance in player evaluation is at best a minefield and at worst grossly misleading because of the small sample sizes. You can likely take any player in baseball and pull out a month's worth of games and find a point in an otherwise sterling season where they were bad or disappointing.

Chris Sale was probably the best pitcher in baseball last year, but oh ****, he had a garbage run May and August with ERAs above 4 in each. Corey Kluber was the wins leader last year (for whatever that matters (hint: it's not much)) but he was horriawful to start the year, with a nearly 40-inning run of batters hitting north of .260 off of him with an ERA above 5. Even Stroman wasn't immune, as his may had batters hitting almost .290 with an OPS near .800 off him in May.

Playoff performance is a breeding ground of randomness. Just like the clutchness arguments, players in the playoffs or 'crunch time' or whatever tend to be whoever they are the rest of the time as well. That doesn't mean they always are, and sometimes you're going to get a guy who has a great playoff run out of absolutely nowhere (*cough*Eckstein*cough) and sometimes you're going to get a guy who falls apart in a series. But especially with pitchers, the playoffs are a super dangerous thing to be evaluating on. Just looking at Price for example, he has 17 career playoff GP (9 starts) and 73.1 IP. That's like 4% of his career IP total to suddenly be weighting as super important in evaluating him as a player. For comparison's sake, that's basically equivalent to cherry picking a single start of a whole season's work and saying "well, he was damn good in the other 200ish IP he threw this year, but I didn't like that one start at the end, so his whole season is a failure and he's not a worthwhile player."

DJQ is right. That's silly.

 

[zeke]

2yr Stats

Tanaka (29): 61gs, 6.2ip/gs, 89era-, 87fip-, 82xfip-, 3.8awar32
Happ (35): 57gs, 6.0ip/gs, 77era-, 89fip-, 95xfip-, 4.1awar32

Severino (24): 42gs, 5.7ip/gs, 94era-, 79fip-, 75xfip-, 3.7awar32
Sanchez (25): 38gs, 6.0ip/gs, 75era-, 90fip-, 93xfip-, 3.9awar32

Monty (25): 29gs, 5.4ip/gs, 88era-, 89fip-, 101xfip-, 3.2awar32
Stroman (27): 65gs, 6.2ip/gs, 86era-, 87fip-, 81xfip-, 3.6awar32

Sabathia (37): 57gs, 5.8ip/gs, 88era-, 98fip-, 98xfip-, 3.1awar32
Estrada (34): 62gs, 5.8ip/gs, 98era-, 100fip-, 113xfip-, 2.9awar32

Gray (28): 49gs, 5.7ip/gs, 105era-, 98fip-, 90xfip-, 1.8awar32
Garcia (31): 57gs, 5.7ip/gs, 109era-, 105fip-, 95xfip-, 1.5awar32

Cessa (26): 14gs, 5.2ip/gs, 105era-, 123fip-, 104xfip-, 0.9awar32
Biagini (28): 18gs, 4.9ip/gs, 129era-, 98fip-, 96xfip-, 0.6awar32

 

[Nineteen67]

Braves want Ronald Acuna to wear his hat straight; here's why that's dumb

I dont believe this is coming from AA but you have to think this concept cant be pushed without AA's approval.

I don’t think it’s too much to ask.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins said Tuesday his club is likely to carry two backup infielders on opening day, which would presumably be Yangervis Solarte and Aledmys Diaz if Troy Tulowitzki is healthy and ready to play at the beginning of the season.

However, Tulowitzki has yet to appear in a Grapefruit League game and isn’t scheduled to do so anytime soon. He’s been fielding groundballs and hitting batting practice regularly. But, with each passing day that he isn’t in an actual game, it’s increasingly likely he begins the season on the disabled list. That would open the door for Gift Ngoepe or Richard Urena to sneak onto the roster in one of those two backup infielder roles.

Blue Jays manager John Gibbons says Ngoepe has been particularly impressive this spring, especially in his opportunities at shortstop.

"I love him — he’s done a great job," Gibbons said. "He’s got great hands. He can play anywhere out there. You just watch him move around as an infielder, and something jumps out at you. He’s better than most."

The 28-year-old South African is primarily known for his defence, and hit just .222/.323/.296 in his 28-game MLB debut with the Pittsburgh Pirates last season. His .231/.320/.351 line over more than 700 minor-league games isn’t much better, but Gibbons believes Ngoepe has some untapped offensive potential.

"You know what, I’ll tell you, I see something in his bat. He’s stronger than I thought he was going to be," Gibbons said. "I’ve got to be honest, I like everything that I’ve seen. How everything shakes out, I’m not sure. But I think he’s a good pick-up for us."

 

[zeke]

at the least, playoff stats should be folded in with regular season stats.

 

[Kurtz]

2yr Stats

Tanaka (29): 61gs, 6.2ip/gs, 89era-, 87fip-, 82xfip-, 3.8awar32
Happ (35): 57gs, 6.0ip/gs, 77era-, 89fip-, 95xfip-, 4.1awar32

Severino (24): 42gs, 5.7ip/gs, 94era-, 79fip-, 75xfip-, 3.7awar32
Sanchez (25): 38gs, 6.0ip/gs, 75era-, 90fip-, 93xfip-, 3.9awar32

Monty (25): 29gs, 5.4ip/gs, 88era-, 89fip-, 101xfip-, 3.2awar32
Stroman (27): 65gs, 6.2ip/gs, 86era-, 87fip-, 81xfip-, 3.6awar32

Sabathia (37): 57gs, 5.8ip/gs, 88era-, 98fip-, 98xfip-, 3.1awar32
Estrada (34): 62gs, 5.8ip/gs, 98era-, 100fip-, 113xfip-, 2.9awar32

Gray (28): 49gs, 5.7ip/gs, 105era-, 98fip-, 90xfip-, 1.8awar32
Garcia (31): 57gs, 5.7ip/gs, 109era-, 105fip-, 95xfip-, 1.5awar32

Cessa (26): 14gs, 5.2ip/gs, 105era-, 123fip-, 104xfip-, 0.9awar32
Biagini (28): 18gs, 4.9ip/gs, 129era-, 98fip-, 96xfip-, 0.6awar32

Our starting rotations are about even (assuming Sanchez and Stroshow are healthy this year). Now add bullpens and starting lineups.

It's not particularly close.

 

[Kurtz]

Nah, Stroman is better. Im not sure people realize how good he actually is.

I love Stro, and there are only a handful of pitchers I'd trade him for...but Severino would be one of them. It's hard to make single-season predictions for pitchers, but I expect Severino to be in the CY race this year.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[The Nemesis]

Carrera back to Jays camp as a non-roster invitee.


NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Kurtz]

Carrera back to Jays camp as a non-roster invitee.


NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Nineteen67]

Carrera back to Jays camp as a non-roster invitee.


NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

What happened here?

This makes no sense!

 

[hockeywiz542]

The Blue Jays are said to be the front-runners in the Orelvis Martinez sweepstakes, the Dominican SS who will likely receive the highest bonus on the July 2nd opening of the international free agent signing period.

Martinez will likely command a bonus of more than $3 million, soaking up much of the Blue Jays’ $4.75 million bonus pool allotment. This is the first year of new rules regarding exceeding pool limits. In the past, teams could blow past their limit, and pay a penalty, and have their bonuses limited the following season (as the Jays did when they signed Vladimir Guerrero Jr). A hard cap is now in place. Teams can increase their pool through trades, or by competitive balance means.

Ben Badler of Baseball America was in the Domincian Republic this week to catch MLB’s Showcase of top international talent, who notes Martinez:

Has fast hands and a calm, easy swing that generates power and loft from right-center over to his pull side.

At 5’11″/180, the 16 year old still has plenty of room for growth, and is not projected to stay at SS in the long term. His bat and body seem to indicate an ultimate landing at 3B.

 

[Woodman19]

It seems like Atkins brings has a tradition of bringing in 1 premier prospect each year. Bichette, Pearson and now Martinez?..

 

[Anthrax442]

Gregg Zaun launches Manalyst TV on YouTube