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(Almost) all big $$$ goalies suck

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I think you need to evaluate goalies on more then just stats, you also need the ability to evaluate their skill, talent, and potential to help you win games or play better when the game is on the line, especially come playoff time. Regardless of whatever Bobrovsky's regular season stats have been he has always been an extremely talented and skilled goalie. Does that mean he is worth his contract or I would want a 10 million dollar goalie? Not necessarily but I would rather have a really talented goalie that is maybe overpaid based on their overall stats then some very average skilled goalie like Stuart Skinner for example that makes a much lower salary but the guy will often be the second best goalie on the ice in any particular game. Not saying you need a 10 million dollar goalie but I would rather have a goalie with the talent and potential to play great in big games then a very average goalie that rarely will. I would bet my money on guys like Bobrovsky, Binnington, Vasilevsky, Gibson, Swayman, Hellebuyck, Shesterkin, Oettinger etc. to come up big when needed then I would an average goalie even if their regular season stats are similar. Those are the X factors that you need to have to ability to determine though.
 
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FWIW, there's really no correlation between spending a lot or a little on a goalie and winning the Cup. There have been 12 Cups awarded in the 50/50 cap split world. At the time of their contract signings, the distribution of the cap hit percentages of Cup winning goalies looks like:

0-2%: 3 (Murray x 2, Binnington)
2-4%: 1 (Hill)
4-6%: 3 (Crawford '13, Vasilevskiy '20, Kuemper)
6-8%: 0
8-10%: 3 (Quick '14, Crawford '15, Holtby)
10%+: 2 (Vasilevskiy '21, Bobrovsky)
 
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Tawnos said:
FWIW, there's really no correlation between spending a lot or a little on a goalie and winning the Cup. There have been 12 Cups awarded in the 50/50 cap split world. At the time of their contract signings, the distribution of the cap hit percentages of Cup winning goalies looks like:

0-2%: 3 (Murray x 2, Binnington)
2-4%: 1 (Hill)
4-6%: 3 (Crawford '13, Vasilevskiy '20, Kuemper)
6-8%: 0
8-10%: 3 (Quick '14, Crawford '15, Holtby)
10%+: 2 (Vasilevskiy '21, Bobrovsky)
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And at the end of the day, this distribution is really just saying that it's great if one of your best players is young and hasn't gotten paid yet. Murray has lost his shine, but he was going to get PAID had he not gotten injured and fallen off the map. He was an exceptional goalie his last year in juniors, in the AHL, and then his first years in the NHL.
 
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2028 7th said:
Swayman, Vasilevsky, Shesterkin, all shitting the bed this year and/or recent playoffs. Gibson is still an anchor and Grubauer is a nightmare. Bobrovsky is meh at best, and Sorokin is underwhelming, as is non-4 Nations Bennington. Markstrom es no bueno anymore and neither is Merzlikins. The list goes on. Don't spend money on goalies. Only exception is Hellebuyck.
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Merely noting that some of these goalies have some pretty average defenses in front of them, due to either quality defensive players being injured or now playing elsewhere.

It's a team sport.

The post seems like another one that is aimed more at fantasty hockey than reality.
 
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Romang67 said:
And at the end of the day, this distribution is really just saying that it's great if one of your best players is young and hasn't gotten paid yet. Murray has lost his shine, but he was going to get PAID had he not gotten injured and fallen off the map. He was an exceptional goalie his last year in juniors, in the AHL, and then his first years in the NHL.
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It's probably worth mentioning that, while Murray didn't get paid a lot, the Penguins were paying Fleury in the 8-10% bracket.
 
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Toby91ca said:
My point is, you might want to pay a goalie big time $$$ if he is able to cover up for the bad D the rest of the team plays, otherwise, perhaps not worth the big $$$. Clearly players, in all positions, are impacted by their teammates performances, but the guys that should get paid the most are the ones that perform best regardless.
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In my opinion, goalies earn their paychecks in the post season. The regular season grind might lead one to believe that the difference between a goalie or another is slim, but every year during the playoffs teams get goalied and they show us why you want a poised, confident elite goalie when it matters.

I think if Toronto had a (10m/aav) prime Carey Price level goalie instead of Nylander or Tavares they already have their cup. No player can be more clutch than a goaltender.
 
ijuka said:
... And wasn't worth his contract.
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...and Lord Stanley proves that to be false...facts... :teach:


knowlegepower.gif
 
Oilslick941611 said:
i have no dog in this fight, as i dont care to have an opinion on it, but whats the point of dropping annonymous stats in the thread

like Who the f*** do these numbers belong to? what point are trying to prove?

you can't just leave unfinished thoughts and then say someones post is bad.
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Fair point, accidentally cropped out the name, but thats Vasi this season. If thats bad, give me some bad goaltending baby!
 
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BigDaddyLurch said:
...cuz YOU say so...the Florida Panthers disagree...and they would be correct... :thumbu:
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Well and at the end of the day, it's not as if most teams have the choice between a great goalie or a merely good one. A lot of times it's all or nothing, because a team with a lesser paid but also Cup capable goalie ain't trading him for a more expensive one.

If finding an affordable guy who can be "good enough" as a substitute were easy, then every playoff team would have one.
 
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Either way, gone are the days where an elite starter would play 65-70 (or more) games in the regular season and then ideally start every playoff game. While there might be some goaltenders in the league who could shoulder that kind of workload, coaching theory has shifted away from that. Only three goaltenders last season had 60 or more starts. Bobrovsky himself started 58 on the way to a cup with Florida.

It's almost, but not quite, entirely unlike baseball's theory of pulling the starter earlier than managers used to. Clayton Kershaw was rather notoriously pulled after 7 innings and 80 pitches despite the fact that he had a perfect game going at that point back in 2022.
 
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2028 7th said:
Swayman, Vasilevsky, Shesterkin, all shitting the bed this year and/or recent playoffs. Gibson is still an anchor and Grubauer is a nightmare. Bobrovsky is meh at best, and Sorokin is underwhelming, as is non-4 Nations Bennington. Markstrom es no bueno anymore and neither is Merzlikins. The list goes on. Don't spend money on goalies. Only exception is Hellebuyck.
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I agree with A LOT of this, but I'm bummed you left out the most overrated one in Oettinger.

You're wrong on Vasilevskiy and Shesterkin though. Analytically, both are having pretty good seasons. Igor wasn't gonna be a .930%-something goalie his entire career. Markstrom was also having a fine season as of his last game, but has been injured for the last 5 weeks and hasn't played since. He's getting ready to come back. Sorokin has had a pretty average season, but just average at best.

Bob has been a pretty pedestrian goalie for probably half the time he's been with Florida, at least regular season only. I think he's probably had as many meh regular seasons there as good ones, if not even more.

Gibson is having his first good season in 6 years, but he's done this before a few times and by season's end his numbers regress back to being in the toilet again. He probably won't play enough games this season for it to really happen by the end of this one, due to all the time he's missed injured and Dostal getting a lot of games.

Grubauer has been hilariously awful since getting that contract. The difference between him and Daccord the last two years behind the same team is like if it were really a retired 50-something year old goalie playing his games.

One name on a big contract that you're missing is that BUM Jarry lol.
 
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1989 said:
Vasilevskiy already won a couple so he's off the hook. Bobrovsky won but not with his original team on the big contract so it's kind of 50/50 but the Panthers and their fans don't care, I'm sure. Binnington won his Cup and the 4 Nations so it's not like he needs to prove that much more.

I'm gonna get a shitload of hate but Hellebuyck, aside from Vezina contention/wins, has won shit all. It's not his fault specifically, but it's not like the Jets have seen anything past the second round in this current iteration. I like what he brings skills/numbers-wise but I'm not pretending he's lifting teams to greatness yet either.

OP is all over the place. Exactly what else does a goalie need to do but win?
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Helly up until recent (last 2 playoffs) wasn't the issue for the Jets in the playoffs, but even his last 2yrs he's been awful for them. So yeah, he shouldn't be off the hook at all. Great season numbers and then awful playoff ones don't take a player off the hook at all.

When his team is scoring 3 goals per game but allowing 4.8, it's a combination of bad goaltending and defense.
 
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2028 7th said:
Swayman, Vasilevsky, Shesterkin, all shitting the bed this year and/or recent playoffs. Gibson is still an anchor and Grubauer is a nightmare. Bobrovsky is meh at best, and Sorokin is underwhelming, as is non-4 Nations Bennington. Markstrom es no bueno anymore and neither is Merzlikins. The list goes on. Don't spend money on goalies. Only exception is Hellebuyck.
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1000068822.jpg


Vasilevsky is shitting the bed this year! (5th in GSAA) Gibson is an anchor! (7th in GSAA this year)

Lol. Great OP.
 
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LevelingSolo said:
Certainly aren’t in a golden era of goalies right now
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Might not be for a long time.

Stick technology has progressed to the point it's not humanly possible to be a reflex goalie in the NHL anymore. Goalies play the percentages and try to put themselves in the spot where it's most statistically likely the puck will hit them. This is vulnerable to bad luck and the shooter happening to make the perfect shot. If goalies get bad luck they get in their own heads and start chasing and it goes downhill from there.

Goalies seem unpredictable because it's a luck based position. If the shooter makes the perfect shot there is zero even the best goalie in the league can do about it. Goaltenders are differentiated by their anticipation of the play and ability to get into position.

Didn't used to be this way even 30 years ago. At one time only a couple guys on a team had 100mph shots, now it's the entire team down to the 6th defenceman and stick technology makes shots so much more accurate.
 
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LTIR Trickery said:
View attachment 983020
This isn't bad, but your post is
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Vasilevskiy's atrocious play is by far the biggest reason why Tampa has been garbage in the playoffs the last few years.
Bleedred said:
I agree with A LOT of this, but I'm bummed you left out the most overrated one in Oettinger.

You're wrong on Vasilevskiy and Shesterkin though. Analytically, both are having pretty good seasons. Igor wasn't gonna be a .930%-something goalie his entire career. Markstrom was also having a fine season as of his last game, but has been injured for the last 5 weeks and hasn't played since. He's getting ready to come back. Sorokin has had a pretty average season, but just average at best.

Bob has been a pretty pedestrian goalie for probably half the time he's been with Florida, at least regular season only. I think he's probably had as many meh regular seasons there as good ones, if not even more.

Gibson is having his first good season in 6 years, but he's done this before a few times and by season's end his numbers regress back to being in the toilet again. He probably won't play enough games this season for it to really happen by the end of this one, due to all the time he's missed injured and Dostal getting a lot of games.

Grubauer has been hilariously awful since getting that contract. The difference between him and Daccord the last two years behind the same team is like if it were really a retired 50-something year old goalie playing his games.

One name on a big contract that you're missing is that BUM Jarry lol.
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Yep, Oettinger and Jarry most definitely, and can also throw in Ullmark as well.
 
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