GDT: All things training camp

[Mortimer Snerd]

I’ve got high hopes. I think Vilardi is exactly what they need. A big, defensively responsible winger. Sure, it didn’t work out last year but they didn’t really have much of a chance due to a couple of knee on knee hits.

I think that CSV has promise. But KC and Scheifele have played better without each other than they have played together. Adding Vilardi probably doesn't change that. And what are the odds of Vilardi playing more than 60 games?

Even if it works, it probably is < optimal deployment.

 

[Howard Chuck]

My hot take: Scheif signed on the condition he gets to play with players he chooses, which is probably Connor.

That's likely why Wheeler kept getting 1st line minutes - his or Scheif's hand shake agreement.

I guess I don’t understand that argument. If I got to play with anyone I wanted, I would want it to be the person I was most successful with, and that would take the team the furthest.

 

[Gm0ney]

I guess I don’t understand that argument. If I got to play with anyone I wanted, I would want it to be the person I was most successful with, and that would take the team the furthest.

They score lots together. Scheifele generally doesn't give a shit about goals against, only goals for.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

What does that look like in actual goals across the season though?

We've been through the "absolute vs relative difference" ad nauseum, so I won't rehash it

I'll leave it by sating that if we won a game 6-5 (or lost 6-5), nobody would be talking about one team dominating and one team getting crushed... yet that's about the largest margin that we talk about with regards to all these stats

You perceive GF% of 55% vs a GF% of 45% as being some huge difference, but in reality it's equivalent to losing a game 6-5 vs winning one 6-5. Both were competitive games and nobody got "caved"

Yes, exactly.
In one scenario, we lose. In the other we win. Nobody got caved.

What's wrong with trying to make the most of what we have?

 

[surixon]

They score lots together. Scheifele generally doesn't give a shit about goals against, only goals for.

Also how many of us really like change. People like to stay in their comfort zones. I'd imagine there is that as well. It's up to the coaches to convince them that the alternative is better for them.

 

[Buffdog]

Yes, exactly.
In one scenario, we lose. In the other we win. Nobody got caved.

What's wrong with trying to make the most of what we have?

There are three other lines that have input into the win or loss

And we'd be a lot less likely to win without Schief than with him. He likes playing with Connor, so they'll play together. Bitching about it won't change it or make it any better

 

[LowLefty]

I think that CSV has promise. But KC and Scheifele have played better without each other than they have played together. Adding Vilardi probably doesn't change that. And what are the odds of Vilardi playing more than 60 games?

Even if it works, it probably is < optimal deployment.

81 and 55 are probably the most dynamic pair of forwards we have - they can play very well together in creating offense - and can play well defensively if they want to.
It comes down to that and Arniel has noted that he wants more of a two way game from everyone.
So, I'll wait and see how that goes

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Stanley out atleast 4 weeks and underwent surgery on his knee.

Battle on defense should have just gotten a lot more intense.

Stan looked good in his one pre-season game. I feel sorry for him as well as for Heinola. It might have been a really interesting, season long battle for that 3LD spot.

Now it looks like Fleury is the only 3LD option and there might be a battle for the #7 spot. Might we pick up a LHD on waivers?

 

[voyageur]

I think that CSV has promise. But KC and Scheifele have played better without each other than they have played together. Adding Vilardi probably doesn't change that. And what are the odds of Vilardi playing more than 60 games?

Even if it works, it probably is < optimal deployment.

I think there are different combos to look at...KC/Scheif with Iafallo was a net positive, with Ehlers a positive, with Namestnikov a negative. With Appleton, negative. With Vilardi, it's even, but a relatively small sample size, and I think the end of the season was worse than the start, as the stars maybe got into a comfort zone of coasting a little, with the playoffs being solidified. Vilardi didn't come back the same as he started, after injury 3, either.

Now the one good month Ehlers had with Scheif is worth something (it was what 12 goals in 5 games for that line), but it's only a month, and maybe just maybe he and Namestnikov like playing together, and the 2nd line as structured was also a positive last year.

I think coaches generally have a feel for their team. And you do try to keep your star players happy. Since it is Winnipeg, and we don't grow them on trees.

I hope Vilardi can stay healthy, this is a crucial year for him, to kind of set the bar higher.

 

[John Agar]

The Larch got limb surgery...

This is going to be interesting...

Who is HFJets going to dump on now... ?

 

[Guardian17]

Any streaming of tomorrow’s game in mini ?

Winnnipegjets.com.

 

[WolfHouse]

Lol that Fleury is more than waiver wire scrap

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

There are three other lines that have input into the win or loss

And we'd be a lot less likely to win without Schief than with him. He likes playing with Connor, so they'll play together. Bitching about it won't change it or make it any better

Hey, you said it.

That is true. It is like death and taxes.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

81 and 55 are probably the most dynamic pair of forwards we have - they can play very well together in creating offense - and can play well defensively if they want to.
It comes down to that and Arniel has noted that he wants more of a two way game from everyone.
So, I'll wait and see how that goes

Well, Scheifele and his #1 winger are going to be that, aren't they. But Ehlers is more dynamic than either of them.

We have a sample of them playing apart. Both had their highest scoring seasons. Of course there are always other factors involved but just swap Ehlers and Connor for 20 games or so and see how it works out.

But that is not going to happen so we just have to hope that they get a full season with Vilardi and Arniel's coaching gets them playing a little better defensively.

 

[voyageur]

Lol that Fleury is more than waiver wire scrap

I think the Jets expected him to be in the battle for a final roster spot. The two way suggests he wasn't guaranteed, as the Jets had 7 d-men signed to NHL contracts. By the sounds of Arniel's interview Stanley was the front runner for the 6 d spot. Ville I think still had to prove himself. Fleury was insurance on these guys, maybe somebody the team wanted to start with Salomonsson, since the Moose depth is suspect on the left side, but he would be the only guy called up on the left side in a PK role, if injury dictated the need.

He's mostly been a 7/8 for the last few years of his career. Probably where he was to start this year.

Next man up, that's a hockey tradition.

 

[JetsFan815]

Only thing that makes sense is the two insist on playing together and hold enough power in the org to make it happen year after year.

We're on our 4th head coach in that time and the duo is still together despite all the evidence supporting it being broken up.

Trying solve for the maximization of happiness of two guys who make a combined $16 million a year is definitely... one way to run an NHL franchise.

 

[LowLefty]

Well, Scheifele and his #1 winger are going to be that, aren't they. But Ehlers is more dynamic than either of them.

We have a sample of them playing apart. Both had their highest scoring seasons. Of course there are always other factors involved but just swap Ehlers and Connor for 20 games or so and see how it works out.

But that is not going to happen so we just have to hope that they get a full season with Vilardi and Arniel's coaching gets them playing a little better defensively.

I'm referring to how the two play together - they read off each other like very few players do.
Ehlers is electric to watch at times - but I don't see him at the same level as KC when it comes working with line mates - IMO

 

[JetsFan815]

81 and 55 are probably the most dynamic pair of forwards we have - they can play very well together in creating offense - and can play well defensively if they want to.
It comes down to that and Arniel has noted that he wants more of a two way game from everyone.
So, I'll wait and see how that goes

Ir is not about "wanting to play well defensively". It is who these players are at this point, they are trying their best and its their best, its not about "want". The coaches should be treating it like any other player with a weakness... we don't say "Lowry can score goals when he wants to play well offensively".

We have accepted that Lowry is never going to score 25 goals, similarly such defensive play from that combo should be an expectation from those 2. And just like the coach puts Nino on that Lowry line instead of Gus to help them score. It seems reasonable to try to do the same with the guys who eat a 3rd of the ice time each game and can't hold their nose above water.

 

[LowLefty]

Ir is not about "wanting to play well defensively". It is who these players are at this point, they are trying their best and its their best, its not about "want". The coaches should be treating it like any other player with a weakness... we don't say "Lowry can score goals when he wants to play well offensively".

We have accepted that Lowry is never going to score 25 goals, similarly such defensive play from that combo should be an expectation from those 2. And just like the coach puts Nino on that Lowry line instead of Gus to help them score. It seems reasonable to try to do the same with the guys who eat a 3rd of the ice time each game and can't hold their nose above water.

55 / 81 are both extremely talented players that can do a lot of things they might not be showing us at this point.
It's no secret they don't like the defense like the offense - but if they wanted to be better defensively, they certainly could.
Lowry can't make that same step on the offensive side - doesn't have the talent.

 

[voyageur]

Ir is not about "wanting to play well defensively". It is who these players are at this point, they are trying their best and its their best, its not about "want". The coaches should be treating it like any other player with a weakness... we don't say "Lowry can score goals when he wants to play well offensively".

We have accepted that Lowry is never going to score 25 goals, similarly such defensive play from that combo should be an expectation from those 2. And just like the coach puts Nino on that Lowry line instead of Gus to help them score. It seems reasonable to try to do the same with the guys who eat a 3rd of the ice time each game and can't hold their nose above water.

I would just point out that at the time of KC's knee injury last season, he had 17 goals, and the Jets were 15-8-2. With Scheif, and an inefficient PP. Valardi had just come back and hadn't got on the top line, Ehlers was there, after Iafallo got demoted.

Connor's injury was Vilardi's opportunity to get back up there.

I think you have to take the KC/Scheif stats in stride, because for at least 2 years, if not more, Blake Wheeler was an anchor to that line, having lost a step. And the replacement for Wheeler was Appleton, more often than not.

 

[DRW204]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1839345538560635388

I know some posters scoff at xGF%, and that's fine.
But GF vs GA, I know that's the ultimate argument for those too.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'm referring to how the two play together - they read off each other like very few players do.
Ehlers is electric to watch at times - but I don't see him at the same level as KC when it comes working with line mates - IMO

Again, the sample we have says that Scheifele/Ehlers is better than Scheifele/Connor.

Connor has been good without Scheifele too.

The line of Connor/Scheifele/Ehlers was very good. IIRC that was a pretty small sample though.

I think it might go beyond Scheifele wanting to play with Connor (I think Scheif is the player who gets that choice). I suspect that Scheifele does not like playing with Ehlers. Ehlers takes him by surprise. Even though he might manage to react enough of the time for it to be successful I think it is harder for him to play that way. He just doesn't like it. Of course I can't know this for certain. It is just my suspicion.

 

[surixon]

I'm referring to how the two play together - they read off each other like very few players do.
Ehlers is electric to watch at times - but I don't see him at the same level as KC when it comes working with line mates - IMO

I think this is view quite overstated and mostly due to the fact they play significantly more minutes then anyone else on the team and in all the prime offensive situations. They are actually among the least efficient duos we run.

They score at a 2.67 vs an expected goals per 60 of 2.52.

Fly and Mark - Actual 3.52 vs expected of 3.33

Perfetti and Name Actual 3.68 vs expected of 2.68

Perfetti and KC actual 4.93 vs expected of 3.56

So in actuality they are much more efficient at not only generating chances but scoring actual goals away from each other.

This would dispute the notion that they read off of each other in the way few do. They tend to read better off of other players on the team.

 

[LowLefty]

Again, the sample we have says that Scheifele/Ehlers is better than Scheifele/Connor.

Connor has been good without Scheifele too.

The line of Connor/Scheifele/Ehlers was very good. IIRC that was a pretty small sample though.

I think it might go beyond Scheifele wanting to play with Connor (I think Scheif is the player who gets that choice). I suspect that Scheifele does not like playing with Ehlers. Ehlers takes him by surprise. Even though he might manage to react enough of the time for it to be successful I think it is harder for him to play that way. He just doesn't like it. Of course I can't know this for certain. It is just my suspicion.

A agree on the bold - which is where I was going with my post.
I guess you could say Ehlers takes him by surprise - which is pretty much the opposite of reading off each other.

 

[surixon]

A agree on the bold - which is where I was going with my post.
I guess you could say Ehlers takes him by surprise - which is pretty much the opposite of reading off each other.

I'd argue that not being complacent with your linemate is actually a good thing for this team. The fact it doesn't come easy means the player has to work harder to make it work.

Isn't that one of the big issues with this group in the playoffs, they don't know how to up their work rate?

Making our top players uncomfortable is good thing imo, it forces them to change from a status quo that is quite frankly not good enough. The proof is in numbers, them being uncomfortable leads to improved performance.