Prospect Info: All-Purpose 2024 Draft Thread & Celebrini discussion (also the 14th pick and whatever else is draft related)

[Star Platinum]

I wouldn't be surprised if Buium and Parekh are #2 and 3 D-men to go.

I would fall out of my chair if Levshunov, Silayev, and Buium aren't the first 3 defensemen taken. But Parekh is going to be a huge wild card in the draft.

 

[Juxtaposer]

What makes Solberg a "reach"?

The fact that he’s not as good as other prospects that will be available at 14.

Hope that helps!

 

[Hodge]

The fact that he’s not as good as other prospects that will be available at 14.

Hope that helps!

How can you be certain of that without knowing who is available at 14?

If it's Solberg vs. MBN vs. Eiserman is that really so clear cut?

A "reach" would be drafting Adam Kleber 14th overall. Solberg is not a reach.

 

[TealManV]

What makes Solberg a "reach"?

There is a pretty clear consensus from a majority of the scouting community/prospect people that there are 14 higher level quality prospects in this draft. (In no particular order)

Celebrini
Levshunov
Silayev
Demidov
Lidstrom
Buium
Parekh
Sennecke
Catton
Iginla
Dickinson
Yakemchuk
Helenius
Eiserman

So, mathematically, one of those 14 will still be there for the Sharks at 14.

Yes, the Sharks need to add some quality defensive prospects to their pipeline, so hopefully one of those 6 dmen fall. If they don’t, there’s no need to “reach” for a bottom 4 LD with a higher quality prospect still available.

If Grier decides to “reach” at 14 and passes up on an Eiserman or Helenius, my preference would be MBN. Not Solberg. Not Jiricek.

And I can save a lot of time on this discussion by saying Grier and his staff have yet to earn my trust that they know who the BPA are. Time will tell on that front.

And I do not subscribe to the idea that bigger is better. So trying to sway my opinion would be moot. I’d more open to Solberg if he had a longer track record and was right handed.

 

[Hodge]

There is a pretty clear consensus from a majority of the scouting community/prospect people that there are 14 higher level quality prospects in this draft. (In no particular order)

Celebrini
Levshunov
Silayev
Demidov
Lidstrom
Buium
Parekh
Sennecke
Catton
Iginla
Dickinson
Yakemchuk
Helenius
Eiserman

So, mathematically, one of those 14 will still be there for the Sharks at 14.

Yes, the Sharks need to add some quality defensive prospects to their pipeline, so hopefully one of those 6 dmen fall. If they don’t, there’s no need to “reach” for a bottom 4 LD with a higher quality prospect still available.

If Grier decides to “reach” at 14 and passes up on an Eiserman or Helenius, my preference would be MBN. Not Solberg. Not Jiricek.

And I can save a lot of time on this discussion by saying Grier and his staff have yet to earn my trust that they know who the BPA are. Time will tell on that front.

And I do not subscribe to the idea that bigger is better. So trying to sway my opinion would be moot. I’d more open to Solberg if he had a longer track record and was right handed.

Oh well if the "scouting community/prospect people" aka internet nerds who offer their unqualified prospect opinions for free or poverty wages say so...

 

[tahoesharksfan]

Wow, this is the week isn't it!?

The last couple of years of Sharks Hockey has been so painful and slow. Glad to have something to look forward to again!!

 

[Erep]

There is a pretty clear consensus from a majority of the scouting community/prospect people that there are 14 higher level quality prospects in this draft. (In no particular order)

Celebrini
Levshunov
Silayev
Demidov
Lidstrom
Buium
Parekh
Sennecke
Catton
Iginla
Dickinson
Yakemchuk
Helenius
Eiserman

So, mathematically, one of those 14 will still be there for the Sharks at 14.

Yes, the Sharks need to add some quality defensive prospects to their pipeline, so hopefully one of those 6 dmen fall. If they don’t, there’s no need to “reach” for a bottom 4 LD with a higher quality prospect still available.

If Grier decides to “reach” at 14 and passes up on an Eiserman or Helenius, my preference would be MBN. Not Solberg. Not Jiricek.

And I can save a lot of time on this discussion by saying Grier and his staff have yet to earn my trust that they know who the BPA are. Time will tell on that front.

And I do not subscribe to the idea that bigger is better. So trying to sway my opinion would be moot. I’d more open to Solberg if he had a longer track record and was right handed.

Pretty comfortable making the prediction that Eiserman will not be top 14 on Bob's list tomorrow.

 

[TealManV]

Oh well if the "scouting community/prospect people" aka internet nerds who offer their unqualified prospect opinions for free or poverty wages say so...

Yeah, that nerd Scott Wheeler from The Athletic is pretty unqualified.

Pretty comfortable making the prediction that Eiserman will not be top 14 on Bob's list tomorrow.

Excited to find out tomorrow!

 

[Hodge]

Yeah, that nerd Scott Wheeler from The Athletic is pretty unqualified.

Which NHL teams has he worked as an amateur scout for again? What's his hockey playing or coaching background?

I think Bob McKenzie's list comes out tomorrow. If Solberg is ranked outside the top 20 I'll happily concede that he's a reach at 14.

 

[GRANdSharks]

I don't think Solberg is a reach at 14 at all, most people in the scouting community have him in the top 20 at this point is he an exciting pick compared to some other guys debatable but I'd most certainly take him over eiserman or mbn just based on team need and I view those guys in a similar range with Solberg playing the premium position

 

[Juxtaposer]

How can you be certain of that without knowing who is available at 14?

If it's Solberg vs. MBN vs. Eiserman is that really so clear cut?

A "reach" would be drafting Adam Kleber 14th overall. Solberg is not a reach.

Because I have 15 players that I like more than Solberg and feel there is a tier break after those players. Solberg is the “best of the rest” and no amount of positional need is enough to break that tier. He wouldn’t be a catastrophic pick by any means but he would qualify as “reach”.

Solberg is an intriguing prospect and ultimately I’ve made peace with the fact that he’s almost certainly going to be our pick. But he will not be the BPA at 14 under any circumstances.

Oh well if the "scouting community/prospect people" aka internet nerds who offer their unqualified prospect opinions for free or poverty wages say so...

Pot, meet kettle.

I suppose Solberg does meet your only qualification, which is being over 6’2”.

Let me turn this around. What makes you think that Solberg wouldn’t be a reach? I’m gonna assume it’s because you’ve watched him play extensively, otherwise…

 

[TealManV]

Which NHL teams has he worked as an amateur scout for again? What's his hockey playing or coaching background?

I think Bob McKenzie's list comes out tomorrow. If Solberg is ranked outside the top 20 I'll happily concede that he's a reach at 14.

I appreciate the offer but it’s unnecessary. You conceding anything has no bearing on my opinions.

Having worked for an NHL team shouldn’t be a prerequisite for knowledge. Bob McKenzie hasn’t worked for an NHL team. He didn’t play or coach. Yet people value his insights and rankings. Eric Tulsky had no background in hockey. He started a blog and focused on player analytics. Now he’s a GM of an NHL team. There is no linear path for any of this.

For example, Doug Wilson and Doug Wilson Jr have both worked for NHL teams. Yet you don’t value or respect their work. So that point is moot.

 

[Hodge]

Because I have 15 players that I like more than Solberg and feel there is a tier break after those players. Solberg is the “best of the rest” and no amount of positional need is enough to break that tier. He wouldn’t be a catastrophic pick by any means but he would qualify as “reach”.

Solberg is an intriguing prospect and ultimately I’ve made peace with the fact that he’s almost certainly going to be our pick. But he will not be the BPA at 14 under any circumstances.


Pot, meet kettle.

I suppose Solberg does meet your only qualification, which is being over 6’2”.

Let me turn this around. What makes you think that Solberg wouldn’t be a reach? I’m gonna assume it’s because you’ve watched him play extensively, otherwise…

The entire discourse around draft reaches is stupid because the reach is usually defined based on some completely worthless ranking.

Solberg at 14 seems defensible to me based on many factors including, yes, his size which does matter no matter how much you want to pretend it doesn't.

I appreciate the offer but it’s unnecessary. You conceding anything has no bearing on my opinions.

Having worked for an NHL team shouldn’t be a prerequisite for knowledge. Bob McKenzie hasn’t worked for an NHL team. He didn’t play or coach. Yet people value his insights and rankings. Eric Tulsky had no background in hockey. He started a blog and focused on player analytics. Now he’s a GM of an NHL team. There is no linear path for any of this.

For example, Doug Wilson and Doug Wilson Jr have both worked for NHL teams. Yet you don’t value or respect their work. So that point is moot.

I don't give a shit about Bob McKenzie's personal opinions on prospects either. His list polls people who are actually making the draft day decisions for NHL teams so it would at least be reasonable (although still a stupid and pointless exercise IMO) to define "reaches" based on that ranking.

To call Solberg a reach because some idiot's model or some website trying to sell subscriptions doesn't like him is nonsensical.

 

[coooldude]

I just can't get excited about a guy where all his highlights are about him checking other players. There's a lot more to playing defense than just hitting people. I want somebody who can at least skate the puck up the ice aggressively and if we can't get that, I'd rather get a forward with some skill and draft defense with the later picks.

I am a Solberg fan, but I am realistic. His ceiling is probably pick 13 or 14 given what we all know about everything. Pronman has him at 12, which is the highest anyone has seen him. You could characterize him as a reach on many draft boards if we pick him at 14, but I'd be happy with the pick.

I am also realistic -- the narrative is that he's a "checking D only" guy but that's not actually the reality of his play this year. He was pretty decent in breakouts and break-ins, and he flashed some offensive creativity at the NHL-level of play at Worlds. Here's a longer series of highlights, and here's a shorter one from World Champs only which shows some awesome hits (Parayko hip check) and also some pretty nifty handles, passes, and his goal v Canada.

I'm actually resigned to the idea that we're likely to pick Eiserman.

 

[Juxtaposer]

The entire discourse around draft reaches is stupid because the reach is defined based on some completely worthless ranking.

Solberg at 14 seems defensible to me based on many factors including, yes, his size which does matter no matter how much you want to pretend it doesn't.

Straw man. I didn’t say size doesn’t matter, I’m saying that disqualifying a player because they don’t reach some arbitrary size requirement is stupid and there are a lot of factors other than size that are just as important. Passing on Berkley Catton for Stian Solberg just because we need D and Catton is a small winger would be indefensible. Catton’s upside is star, Solberg’s is middle pairing defensive D.

 

[Hodge]

Straw man. I didn’t say size doesn’t matter, I’m saying that disqualifying a player because they don’t reach some arbitrary size requirement is stupid and there are a lot of factors other than size that are just as important. Passing on Berkley Catton for Stian Solberg just because we need D and Catton is a small winger would be indefensible. Catton’s upside is star, Solberg’s is middle pairing defensive D.

And Solberg's downside is a bottom pairing defensive D while Catton's downside is captain of the Kunlun Red Star.

 

[hohosaregood]

I think Solberg has the likely potential to be a good #2/#3 minute muncher like an Esa Lindell or a plus version of Zadorov. While not as sexy as one of the more offensive guys at the top, it's still a worthwhile gamble at 14 in a vacuum. Might be better to target that over some of the forward options that have top 6 potential. Catton and Helenius are probably the only 2 forwards that would need strong consideration over him as BPAs

 

[Juxtaposer]

And Solberg's downside is a bottom pairing defensive D while Catton's downside is captain of the Kunlun Red Star.

That’s right. And bottom pairing defensemen are easily acquirable in trades and free agency, which makes Solberg’s floor just as worthless as Catton’s when we’re talking 14th overall.

“Safe players” with high floors are only valuable or when that high floor is still a valuable player. Like Michael Brandsegg-Nygard whose downside is excellent crash-and-bang two-way third liner who can pop 20 goals or Konsta Helenius who would be an elite 3C. A guy with a bottom-pairing defenseman floor is no more useful than a guy like Carter Yakemchuk, who has the same floor as Berkly Catton but has legit top pairing upside.

 

[Hodge]

That’s right. And bottom pairing defensemen are easily acquirable in trades and free agency, which makes Solberg’s floor just as worthless as Catton’s when we’re talking 14th overall.

“Safe players” with high floors are only valuable or when that high floor is still a valuable player. Like Michael Brandsegg-Nygard whose downside is excellent crash-and-bang two-way third liner who can pop 20 goals or Konsta Helenius who would be an elite 3C. A guy with a bottom-pairing defenseman floor is no more useful than a guy like Carter Yakemchuk, who has the same floor as Berkly Catton but has legit top pairing upside.

And small soft one-dimensional wingers aren't easy to acquire in trades and free agency?

If Solberg is a Radko Gudas or Nikita Zadorov style bottom pairing defenseman that other teams fear I think that's not only a win at 14th overall but preferable to every Catton outcome short of him developing into a high-end first line winger.

 

[TealManV]

I don't think Solberg is a reach at 14 at all, most people in the scouting community have him in the top 20 at this point is he an exciting pick compared to some other guys debatable but I'd most certainly take him over eiserman or mbn just based on team need and I view those guys in a similar range with Solberg playing the premium position

Personally, I don’t view LD as a premium position at this juncture in the Sharks rebuild (unless it’s Buium). And Solberg doesn’t sound like he’s projected to be a top pairing guy.

The Sharks currently have Mukhamadullin, Thrun, Cagnoni, and Furlong in the system. All are LD and 23 and younger.

This year alone in FA there are top 4 LD like Skjei and Zadorov available. Further down this list are guys like Dillon, Grzelcyk and OEL available. So, Grier can more easily find those guys in FA down the line if/when needed.

Lastly, the Sharks drafted Vlasic in the 2nd round. Same with Ferraro. So you don’t need to use a premium pick for that position. It seems like it would be wasting a shot at something better to invest in Solberg at 14 simply because he plays defense and the Sharks need more defensemen in the pipeline.

 

[Hodge]

The Sharks currently have Mukhamadullin, Thrun, Cagnoni, and Furlong in the system. All are LD and 23 and younger.

How does the old saying go again? "Counting chickens before they hatch is a smart thing to do"?

 

[Juxtaposer]

And small soft one-dimensional wingers aren't easy to acquire in trades and free agency?

If Solberg is a Radko Gudas or Nikita Zadorov style bottom pairing defenseman that other teams fear I think that's not only a win at 14th overall but preferable to every Catton outcome short of him developing into a high-end first line winger.

90 point scoring wingers, which is Catton’s ceiling, are not easy to acquire via trade or free agency, actually.

What do Radko Gudas and Nikita Zadorov have in common? They’ve both been traded for and signed in free agency multiple times!

 

[TealManV]

How does the old saying go again? "Counting chickens before they hatch is a smart thing to do"?

I don’t know, I think that saying came from some internet nerds who offer their unqualified opinions for free or poverty wages.

 

[Hodge]

90 point scoring wingers, which is Catton’s ceiling, are not easy to acquire via trade or free agency, actually.

What do Radko Gudas and Nikita Zadorov have in common? They’ve both been traded for and signed in free agency multiple times!

How many 90 point scoring wingers are there in the entire NHL? Maybe five who do it consistently? Yeah I'll bet those guys are hard to acquire. If scouts actually believe Catton will develop into one of them he should be a slam dunk top 5 pick.

 

[Star Platinum]

Personally, I don’t view LD as a premium position at this juncture in the Sharks rebuild (unless it’s Buium). And Solberg doesn’t sound like he’s projected to be a top pairing guy.

The Sharks currently have Mukhamadullin, Thrun, Cagnoni, and Furlong in the system. All are LD and 23 and younger.

This year alone in FA there are top 4 LD like Skjei and Zadorov available. Further down this list are guys like Dillon, Grzelcyk and OEL available. So, Grier can more easily find those guys in FA down the line if/when needed.

Lastly, the Sharks drafted Vlasic in the 2nd round. Same with Ferraro. So you don’t need to use a premium pick for that position. It seems like it would be wasting a shot at something better to invest in Solberg at 14 simply because he plays defense and the Sharks need more defensemen in the pipeline.

It's pretty simple. The Sharks need defensemen, but they also need high-end talent. Solberg looks like he's got a good chance to be a solid defensive defenseman with not a lot of apparent offensive upside. Meanwhile, there's a very good chance that someone who would be a bigger impact player (probably forward, but small chance of it being one of the Top 6 defensemen) falls to the 14 pick or that they could move up to take that guy. I'm more on board to do one of those two things.

If it comes to the Sharks' pick and all the Top 6 defensemen are gone and nobody has picked Eiserman yet and nothing else has pushed anybody else down, I'd be inclined to see if they can trade down a little and chances are you can trade down and still get Solberg if that's what you want to do. You could even pick Eiserman with a later pick if he drops further. But in the process, you pick up something in addition - either a player that can help us out this year when we need competent bodies or a pick that is good enough to motivate us to trade down.