Player Discussion Alexis Lafrenière

[2014nyr]

I recently watched a video on Laf's last year in the Q.

It's worth noting that he's an 11 Oct birthday. That means he's about as old as you can get relative to draft class. He was 19 before he hit NHL ice. Even without covid, he comes close to doing that anyway.

As such, he was a very old CHL player for a guy of his caliber. He played a whole ass CHL season at age 18. This is a league that top 5 picks, especially first overall picks, blow up at age 17.

What does this all mean? Well the video indicates that he outgrew the Q and developed a lot of lazy habits. This doesn't mean there's anything wrong with him -- it's human nature to go through the motions when you're no longer challenged.

This makes the NHL learning curve much starker on top of the fact that he had a long layoff, no camp, and skipped B-level pro men's hockey entirely.

He just may not be as ready as we thought he was because of a simple matter of astrology. That's not necessarily the end of the world. In fact, it may be a good thing that he's more or less treaded water as an NHL bottom sixer despite all that.

there might be something to this. he was definitely bored in the q last year...his numbers were pretty similar to the year prior. but then there's the world juniors. regardless of age in the tournament i don't recall anyone that dominant there. guys have had better numbers sure, but watching the games he was toying with that level. you he could do anything he wanted out there. and i've mentioned before but you also see the year over year performance there. its like he played a minor role, saw what it took, and destroyed it. for my money thats the single best measure of readiness and potential and he was off the charts. on the whole though i agree with your general point that a lot of coincidental realities conspired to deal him a sht sandwich for his nhl debut. btw not being challenged most of his draft year, having it ended in march and the time off btw games, the challenges covid presented for training for a while, the abbreviated camp, no preseason - he was not put in a good spot to walk in rolling. and too many are trying to break down whats wrong with him, or whats wrong with coaching or development to explain why he isn't meeting their personal expectations. don't get me wrong i would have expected more production to date, but that doesn't mean there's any issue with him or a coaching issue or any other quick solution. personally i have seen him come a long way, he's starting to use his skill more and more, instead of looking rushed, create carrying the puck. he made several very subtle but creative plays to get kakko pucks breaking out on the move last night and i liked those two together a lot. its just going to take more time than people were expecting to get to the player he's going to be. he's going to get more and more adjusted this year, at some point some of these chances will go and he'll get even more confident. but there's other areas he can't "fix" this year. he's not terribly quick from a stop right now and thats going to take offseason work, but there's no debilitating issue with his skating, he's just a teenager, and thats an area thats never been a calling card - but you can be sure he recognizes it. one of these nights he's going to have a 3 or 4 point game and it'll immediately calm the masses, but the bottom line is the finished product is still a ways away, and like you said, its a good thing - he looks like he belongs out there now, he's flashed elite skill...and there's a ton more to look forward to with a little time

 

[Synergy27]

Doing a little historical stat surfing to settle myself down. Here are some things I found interesting:

2008-09: Steven Stamkos was scoreless in hist first seven games, four points (2G, 2A) in the next two games; scoreless again in the next eight. So 4 points thru his first 17 games. He ended the season with 46 points in 79 games, so 0.58PPG. Went from 0.36PPG in hist first 20 games to 0.66PPG in the final 59 games. Arbitrary cutoff points obviously, but he didn't really pick it up until after the new year.

2009-10: John Tavares crushed it from day one.

2010-11:
Taylor Hall had 9 points in his first 20 games, ended the season at 0.65PG.
Seguin's struggles are well documented, but he had 8 points in his first 20 games before ending up with 22 in 74 (0.29PPG). Big jump to 0.83PPG in year two when they stopped playing him on the 4th line.

2011-12:
RNH started hot, with a goal in his first game, a hat trick in his third, and a 5 assist game in November. Ended the year at 0.84PPG.
Landeskog had 9 points in his first 20 and ended up at 0.63PPG.

2012-13: Yakupov had 12 points in his first 20 and ended the season at 0.65PPG

2013-14:
Mackinnon had 12 points in hist first 20 and ended the season at 0.77PPG.
Barkov had 8 points in his first 20 and ended the season at 0.44PPG.

2014-15: no forwards played full time right away. Let's hope 2019 and 2020 weren't like this draft.

2015-16: I'm not comparing our guys to McDavid and Eichel.

2016-17: I'm not comparing our guys to Matthews. Laine had 18 points in his first 20 and ended the season at 0.88PPG.

2017-18:
Hischier had 15 points in his first 20 and ended the season at 0.63PPG.
Patrick had 6 points in his first 20 and ended the season at 0.41PPG.

2018-19: Svechnikov had 8 points in his first 20 and ended the season at 0.45PPG. Jumped up to 0.89PPG in year two.

We all know Alexis has 1 point in 13 games, and that it came during a 3-on-3 OT. There are 43 games left in the season.

In order to be better on a PPG basis than Seguin (the worst rookie season for a #1 or #2OA in this era, even worse than Hughes and Kakko on a PPG basis), he needs to score 16 points in the final 43 games (0.36PPG pace). In order to get into the Barkov/Patrick/Svech tier he needs to score 24 points in the final 43 games (0.56PPG pace).

One other thing that I found interesting while doing this is that I am old as f***.

 

[Hire Sather]

Doing a little historical stat surfing to settle myself down. Here are some things I found interesting:

In order to be better on a PPG basis than Seguin (the worst rookie season for a #1 or #2OA in this era, even worse than Hughes and Kakko on a PPG basis), he needs to score 16 points in the final 43 games (0.36PPG pace). In order to get into the Barkov/Patrick/Svech tier he needs to score 24 points in the final 43 games (0.56PPG pace).

One other thing that I found interesting while doing this is that I am old as f***.

Good job gathering this info. One thing I would say is why can't we compare them to Eichel and Matthews? I had been under the impression that our guys, especially Laf, were on that level.

McDavid is generational and will be one of the best of all time. So that's fine. But the other two, I think we're already admitting some defeat if we won't compare to them.

 

[Rangerfan4life90]

Good job gathering this info. One thing I would say is why can't we compare them to Eichel and Matthews? I had been under the impression that our guys, especially Laf, were on that level.

McDavid is generational and will be one of the best of all time. So that's fine. But the other two, I think we're already admitting some defeat if we won't compare to them.

I believe he was projected to be a Matthews like type talent, or at least around there (albeit, maybe a bit lower).

 

[BKGooner]

Kakko looked like a boy among men last year and is really starting to get his game going. Laf looks like an NHL player who can take a regular shift on any line. He needs to catch up to the speed of the game and start shooting more. If it takes him all of this season to learn the NHL game so be it, he looks like he will beast for years to come.

 

[Scott r]

1 point a goal in 13 games...is.not a superstar often

 

[SnowblindNYR]

1 point a goal in 13 games...is.not a superstar often

Dude, GTFO with your constant trolling. You post the exact same shit in every thread. Do you not have anything better to do in your life?

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Dude, GTFO with your constant trolling. You post the exact same shit in every thread. Do you not have anything better to do in your life?

#wenevergetagoodscott

 

[SnowblindNYR]

#wenevergetagoodscott

He'll soon get the same treatment as that dude (ignore) but I wanted to tell him he's a garbage poster before I did that.

 

[will1066]

#wenevergetagoodscott

John Scott says hi.

 

[DialUp]

He'll soon get the same treatment as that dude (ignore) but I wanted to tell him he's a garbage poster before I did that.

You think he doesn't already know that/is it's purpose?

If Kakko played like the way he is playing now last year, I don't think there would have been much worries about him. He improved, but as Brooks said the other week, he doesn't exactly wow anyone yet. But it's not wrong anymore to think that it won't come; it's exciting when he is on the ice now, as opposed to last year where we cringed and clenched our asses. I don't clench my ass when Laf is on the ice, it gets relaxed because I know nothing going to happen.

Next year is probably going to be more like a proper rookie year for Laf, like what Kakko is doing now. He appears "more ready" than Kakko did last year by the way he holds himself on the ice, but he is just not really doing much. Of course if a few of his glorious chances went in he would be at like 4 or 5 goals at this point and we would be discussing Calder possibilities. Anything better than 10 points this year should be a bonus. Next year, if playing with actual players and getting top minutes, 40 points.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

You think he doesn't already know that/is it's purpose?

If Kakko played like the way he is playing now last year, I don't think there would have been much worries about him. He improved, but as Brooks said the other week, he doesn't exactly wow anyone yet. But it's not wrong anymore to think that it won't come; it's exciting when he is on the ice now, as opposed to last year where we cringed and clenched our asses. I don't clench my ass when Laf is on the ice, it gets relaxed because I know nothing going to happen.

Next year is probably going to be more like a proper rookie year for Laf, like what Kakko is doing now. He appears "more ready" than Kakko did last year by the way he holds himself on the ice, but he is just not really doing much. Of course if a few of his glorious chances went in he would be at like 4 or 5 goals at this point and we would be discussing Calder possibilities. Anything better than 10 points this year should be a bonus. Next year, if playing with actual players and getting top minutes, 40 points.

Laf has had a number of great chances, he hasn't been a dominant force but he's had his chances and the line with Kakko looked great last game in the first period. I don't understand the panic.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

John Scott says hi.

That's NHL All Star MVP John Scott

 

[Rongomania]

Not even close to concerned.

every other #1 and past years #2's never played in the MF'ing coronavirus years.

 

[HonestGabe]

I’d like to see them try Laf and Kakko with Zibanejad. Those two showed some chemistry together last game and maybe sticking Zibby with them, they can get all 3 going.

Lafreniere Zibanejad Kakko
Panarin Strome PDG/Blackwell
Kreider Chytil Buchnevich
Lemieux Rooney Howden

If those three can get going and we get everyone healthy we could build some decent depth with 3 balanced lines.

Obviously in a perfect world, Gauthier could slot in and play on that second line (or swap Buch on the second line) but I don’t think he’s ready for those minutes yet

 

[will1066]

Has he given any interviews? How does he grade himself so far?

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Not even close to concerned.

every other #1 and past years #2's never played in the MF'ing coronavirus years.

Theres 100 excuses for this team. Everyone else lives in the same world, and they're managing to get better results.

 

[Rongomania]

Theres 100 excuses for this team. Everyone else lives in the same world, and they're managing to get better results.

Think this is the only year I'd disagree with you. That garden crowd I feel would honestly pull some different results.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Theres 100 excuses for this team. Everyone else lives in the same world, and they're managing to get better results.

You're right Laf's a bust.

 

[mike14]

You're right Laf's a bust.

There's probably quite a vast distance between "Laf's a bust" and "Laf has had a disappointing start to his pro career, even factoring in current world circumstances"...

 

[Sayba]

Good job gathering this info. One thing I would say is why can't we compare them to Eichel and Matthews? I had been under the impression that our guys, especially Laf, were on that level.

McDavid is generational and will be one of the best of all time. So that's fine. But the other two, I think we're already admitting some defeat if we won't compare to them.

You have seen him play and seen those guys play. What do you think? I don't see the speed and puck carrying of Eichel or the skill and scoring of Matthews. I don't think it's defeat and he will be a very good player but he's not going to be an elite goal scorer and he isn't a puck carrying center.

It's also a weird season and we are playing all good defensive teams. I'm happy with the jump Kakko has made this year and expect the same from Lafreniere later in the season or next year. We just need to find another center, if only we could have pulled off getting Zegras last year as well.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

There's probably quite a vast distance between "Laf's a bust" and "Laf has had a disappointing start to his pro career, even factoring in current world circumstances"...

If he'll be fine, I don't understand the bellyaching. Everyone but Panarin has looked like shit this year, you expect a 19 year old to rise above a terrible offensive team?

 

[broadwayblue]

There's probably quite a vast distance between "Laf's a bust" and "Laf has had a disappointing start to his pro career, even factoring in current world circumstances"...

Fortunately he's having a disappointing start to his pro career during a shortened season during a pandemic on a rebuilding team that was unlikely to make the playoffs because the team has no cap space, is the youngest in the league and is playing in the toughest division. All in all I'm not really upset about it.

 

[mike14]

If he'll be fine, I don't understand the bellyaching. Everyone but Panarin has looked like shit this year, you expect a 19 year old to rise above a terrible offensive team?

Probably not that hard to understand. #1 overall picks have certain expectations, if they aren't being met there'll be short-term disappointment, even if there's less concern over long term success.
Looking at the stats posted previously, a lot of that was done on pretty terrible teams (that's why they're picking at #1). So, while no, I don't expect our 19 y/o to have the team first in the division, I don't really see there being an issue being disappointed that he's only featured in 1 of the 31 goals we've scored this season

 

[RangersFan1994]

anyone thinks Quinn would scratch him? maybe he needs a mental break. has he ever played this many games in a short period of time. something to consider