1. Alexis Lafreniere, LW, 19 (New York Rangers)
Let’s face it: This probably isn’t the start to his career that Lafreniere envisioned for himself. But there’s also a lot at play in his low counting stats, including the second-worst PDO (.933) among all Rangers forwards so far this season (only Chris Kreider has had worse on-ice luck than Lafreniere at 5-on-5).
I wouldn’t worry. Jack Hughes and Andrei Svechnikov didn’t have picture-perfect rookie seasons either and I’m extremely confident Lafreniere ends up closer to their stratosphere than to the level that top picks like Jesse Puljujarvi and Nail Yakupov settled into.
As I wrote after the draft, Lafreniere was always going to be a little slower to that top-of-the-lineup role he’ll need to really thrive because of the Rangers’ organizational depth at left wing. Lafreniere was the best player in the CHL at 17 and 18 (on a bum ankle). His age-adjusted track record to this point places him in truly elite NHL company.
If there’s a tier between Yakupov and Hughes that includes names like Nico Hischier, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Aaron Ekblad, Lafreniere’s career to this point has followed a better trajectory than theirs too. He had a better junior career than Nathan McKinnon. He was never going to be Connor McDavid or Auston Matthews, 10 games hasn’t changed his all-star level expectations.
That’s still the end game. He’s got the strength over pucks. He’s got the touch, and finesse, and stickhandling skill to play through layers. He’s got the power through his skating stride to play around them (though his acceleration will need to continue to improve, which it has). He understands spacing and how to use it to his advantage.
His wrister pops (he doesn’t really have a one-timer) and he makes his linemates better as a playmaker, the latter of which is a side of him we really haven’t seen blossom in the NHL just yet. He doesn’t panic under pressure and will learn to play with more poise as he gets more comfortable in the NHL. He’s going to be awesome.