Player Discussion Alexis Lafrenière

[IDvsEGO]

Or I don't simply accept that formula or the data source utilized, and seriously kiddo... your faith in that metric has yet to be proven.

2 things.
1. I don’t have blanket faith in the metric, The Metric should always be judged and scrutinized. But at this point the metric is a solid judge of where someone is getting opportunities. The metric has flaws, and a better one will come out. Until then it’s the best we’ve got.
2. Calling someone “kiddo” is the most condescending boomer crap ever. I avoided taking any personal shot at you and went to your argument, you condescending to me in that manner is just pathetic.

 

[Mikos87]

And this is my last post on this before more clarity is needed, I work with analytics, and I see plenty of value in data, and have weaponized in other industries, and investments and yeah I still stand by it, and will repeat it if it didn't register properly:

xGF is one of the most entitled metrics out there. Goals are earned in this league, not expected. It's like lauding a fictional statistic that didn't result in actual productivity.

This is what you get for all those participation trophies.

 

[SA16]

xGF is a good concept that, for the most part on the player level, is extremely poorly executed. Whether that is due to the ability of the designers or the available data I don't know but even a cursory look at individual xGF shows you there are some extremely severe flaws that invalidate a lot of the date. Almost all models I've seen both severely compress the data to the middle and have it incredibly correlated to shot rate. For example over the last 3 years every single one of the top 50 players in 5v5 goals except Brady Tkachuk have Goals > xG. Those 60 have an average of 38 goals and 27 xG. The league as a whole has scored 8% more goals than expected. (All data from NST).

 

[Mikos87]

2 things.
1. I don’t have blanket faith in the metric, The Metric should always be judged and scrutinized. But at this point the metric is a solid judge of where someone is getting opportunities. The metric has flaws, and a better one will come out. Until then it’s the best we’ve got.
2. Calling someone “kiddo” is the most condescending boomer crap ever. I avoided taking any personal shot at you and went to your argument, you condescending to me in that manner is just pathetic.

Well well well, sounds like that ego got a little bruised, if your wounded that easily well, there are ways to that without any directed terminology.

Like I said earlier, this is what you get for all those participation trophies.

 

[IDvsEGO]

Well well well, sounds like that ego got a little bruised, if your wounded that easily well, there are ways to that without any directed terminology.

Like I said earlier, this is what you get for all those participation trophies.

Thank you for proving my point.

 

[Mikos87]

Thank you for proving my point.

You as well. Hahahaaha

 

[SA16]

The fact that I can make an basic xG model in Excel in 5 minutes that provides a higher correlation of Goals to xGoals for a player tells you all you need to know about most of these models. They aren't any good. The are better than just purely using shots but whatever fancy math they are doing does not work. Note: By "They" I am solely referring to NST.

 

[Mikos87]

Speaking of earning things, below are the accolades that the man in the thread title has earned so far. Just be you kiddo:

• 2015-2016
  • QBAAA Coupe Dodge (League Champions)
  • QBAAA Most Assists (34)
  • QBAAA Most Goals (35)
  • QBAAA Most Points (69)
• 2016-2017
  • QGC-16 Silver Medal
  • QMAAA First All-Star Team
  • QMAAA Most Assists (50)
  • QMAAA Most Goals (33)
  • QMAAA Most Points (83)
  • QMAAA Most Valuable Player
  • QMAAA Prospect Award
• 2017-2018
  • CHL Rookie of the Year
  • QMJHL All-Rookie Team
  • QMJHL First All-Star Team
  • QMJHL Offensive Rookie of the Year (Michel Bergeron Trophy)
  • QMJHL Rookie of the Year
  • U17 Dev Camp Tournament Champion
  • U17 WHC All-Star Team
  • U17 WHC Silver Medal
• 2018-2019
  • CHL Player of the Year
  • Hlinka Memorial Gold Medal
  • QMJHL First All-Star Team
  • QMJHL Most Valuable Player (Michel Brière Trophy)
  • QMJHL Personality of the Year (Paul Dumont Trophy)
• 2019-2020
  • CHL Player of the Year
  • QMJHL Best Professional Prospect (Mike Bossy Trophy)
  • QMJHL First All-Star Team
  • QMJHL Most Assists (77)
  • QMJHL Most Points (Jean Beliveau Trophy) (112)
  • QMJHL Most Valuable Player (Michel Brière Trophy)
  • QMJHL Personality of the Year (Paul Dumont Trophy)
  • U20 WJC All-Star Team
  • U20 WJC Best Forward
  • U20 WJC Gold Medal
  • U20 WJC Most Valuable Player
  • U20 WJC Top 3 Player on Team

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Stuzle has been on PP1 for exactly two games the whole season.

Ok?
That’s 2 more games than Lafreniere and he’s seen more PP time this year overall.

 

[aufheben]

The fact that I can make an basic xG model in Excel in 5 minutes that provides a higher correlation of Goals to xGoals for a player tells you all you need to know about most of these models. They aren't any good. The are better than just purely using shots but whatever fancy math they are doing does not work. Note: By "They" I am solely referring to NST.

Yeah NST’s model for it is...wonky.

 

[Harbour Dog]

Has the NHL implemented pucks and equipment with trackers in them yet?

They were saying last season that it was going to start this year, but I haven't heard anything about it.

 

[aufheben]

Ok?
That’s 2 more games than Lafreniere and he’s seen more PP time this year overall.

Is this what we’re doing now?

 

[SA16]

Ok?
That’s 2 more games than Lafreniere and he’s seen more PP time this year overall.

Is your point that it is easier for young players to get PP time on bad teams without much established talent? This should be expected. The Rangers have 4 guys who are locked into PP1 in Panarin, Zibanejad, Fox, Kreider. The Senators have only Chabot. It is obvious that we should get expect Stutzle to have more PP time early in the year.

Also three days ago this statement was barely even true. Stutzle had got 27.5% of the Senators PP time. Lafreniere got 26.3%. Then he got moved onto PP1 the last two games and got more time. So if you're using a number that can fluctuate based on usage in...three days it's probably worth not even referencing at all. The Senators also had an average of 7.75 mins/game on 5v4 when Stutzle was PP2 and the Rangers average 6.8 minutes.

 

[Irishguy42]

Has the NHL implemented pucks and equipment with trackers in them yet?

They were saying last season that it was going to start this year, but I haven't heard anything about it.

They removed them shortly after the season started (like...within a week), as the pucks weren't performing as well as the ones used previously in the playoffs that had tracking tech in it.

 

[Gargyn]

You as well. Hahahaaha

What are you 12? You’re acting like a spoiled brat. Grow up.

 

[MysticLeviathan]

View attachment 393786

yeah, well, that’s just, like, your opinion, man...

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

The guy is a real stud. I was skeptical because the DEL isn’t exactly the most competitive league overseas, but the kid seems to be the real deal.

He was great in the 2 CHL games he played last season against Djurgården. He really surprised me throughout the season and I honestly felt he should be the 2nd overall selection.

 

[aufheben]

 

[GoAwayGiannone]

We're gonna same this same picture when he's doing the same pose before a cup clinching game.

 

[LiveLongandProspal]

I just want him to score regularly

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

I just want him to score regularly

he will score once every ten games for his entire 20 year career

 

[aufheben]

Kid is going to destroy people in his prime lol.

 

[Kakko Schmakko]

Is 1 assist too much to ask of a 1st overall pick?

 

[Kakko Schmakko]

Kid is going to destroy people in his prime lol.

yeah on another team most likely.

 

[BroadwayStorm]

The fact someone like Kreider is ahead of him and blocking his development is an insult. Quinn man... but seriously the front office has no backbone or doesn't give a shit. Or its delusional enough to believe it has a chance to compete in this division. It's on JD and Gorton as much as Quinn as to why this kid has been wrecked on the Rangers.