all the excitement of drafting 1st overall and prior to that 2nd overall has pretty much been neutered by Quinn and his clowns. Great job, awesome rebuild.
Player Discussion Alexis Lafrenière
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Also something else that needs to be kept in context. While we we absolutely want to develop superstars, we more than anything want to develop a top team. That likely means easing kids in and sheltering them so they aren’t learning to just be superstars, they learn to be superstars that win.
Usually teams that get young superstars are bottom feeders who have no one else to give the minutes to. Well, despite how good Barkov, McDavid and Eichel look, how well has it been working out for FL, EDM and BUF? Even TOR w/ their embarrassment of riches can’t do all that much w/ it.
A team like the Rangers with playoff aspirations isn’t going to play 19y olds 18 mins a game when they have proven veterans to lean on, unless said 19y olds force them to. You might not like that answer and what it means for Laf’s rookie numbers, but it has the potential to yield much bigger benefits in the long run.
Usually teams that get young superstars are bottom feeders who have no one else to give the minutes to. Well, despite how good Barkov, McDavid and Eichel look, how well has it been working out for FL, EDM and BUF? Even TOR w/ their embarrassment of riches can’t do all that much w/ it.
A team like the Rangers with playoff aspirations isn’t going to play 19y olds 18 mins a game when they have proven veterans to lean on, unless said 19y olds force them to. You might not like that answer and what it means for Laf’s rookie numbers, but it has the potential to yield much bigger benefits in the long run.
broadwayblue
Registered User
Rebuild is going quite well. "The Letter" is about to be 3 years old. The future is bright. My excitement hasn't been neutered, as I expect this team to be a contender quite soon. Maybe even next year. That's pretty incredible if you asked me.
Really the rebuild began with Stepan/Raanta trade.
I predict this rebuild will be a big failure if they don't hire good coaches.
Rempe73
RIP King of Pop
Agreed. I’m calling on Jesus to help this kid too.
SingnBluesOnBroadway
Retired
SA16
Sixstring
The east has been the second highest scoring division in the league this year after the North. It's not just a bunch of 3-1 games.
- Jan 18, 2012
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I'm not worried about Laf.
He has no space and/or time . We're dumping and chasing, haven't seen much on the rush. No help from his center. Very limited PP time.
Even then, he's had a bunch of scoring opportunities but he's Buch'ed it. It'll come.
He has no space and/or time . We're dumping and chasing, haven't seen much on the rush. No help from his center. Very limited PP time.
Even then, he's had a bunch of scoring opportunities but he's Buch'ed it. It'll come.
BondraTime
Registered User
Stutzle is averaging 14:06 per game, and has been on PP1 in one game. Laf is averaging 14:27
- Jul 6, 2017
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The guy is a real stud. I was skeptical because the DEL isn’t exactly the most competitive league overseas, but the kid seems to be the real deal.
Gotta change his number. Something in the 80s or 90s. Just not 93 or 99.
The North is an absolute Joke. 6 of the top 10 teams in xGF this year reside in the north (Ottawa is one of these teams btw). The East may be the "2nd" highest scoring division, but its nothing compared to the North.
TS is great, but his team gets killed out there harder than they normally do when hes playing and hes shooting like 69%.
TS is great, but his team gets killed out there harder than they normally do when hes playing and hes shooting like 69%.
Shesterkybomb
Registered User
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aufheben
#Norris4Fox
TS had almost as much PP time in his last game against Montreal as Lafreniere has had in his last 4 games combined.
PP 1 or what ever, the usage (in this aspect) has definitely been different.
Statistical regression is coming for both of them though.
PP 1 or what ever, the usage (in this aspect) has definitely been different.
Statistical regression is coming for both of them though.
aufheben
#Norris4Fox
That’s one game and Stutzle scored 0 points during it. He scored 1G 2A the previous game against Montreal 14:51 TOI. The assists were even strength.
What regression is coming for Lafreniere? I feel like he should have more goals.
Or it could be that the more shots you take from certain areas of the ice tend to equal more goals. So you look at whats above expectation because it shows a team that sometimes runs into a hot goalie or gets unlucky.
I can respect the intent, and there are variations of said intent that can be modeled, but I still stand by my statement.
Regression to the mean works in both directions. He should have more assists too, he's set up at least a half dozen chances which have been completely beefed on. I wouldn't expect all of them to go in, but at least a few of them should have.
Also it isn't just one game in regards to PP usage. TS has yet to have a single game where hes seen less than a minute of PP time and has been over 2 in almost every single game. Laf has been under a minute 3 times already.
His 2 even strength assists were both secondary and not really overly noteworthy. The first one was a medium difficulty stretch pass through the NZ - these are more meaningful than the ones you get for touching a puck while existing (these aren't repeatable) but that exactly what the 2nd one was.
One guy has had good puck luck and a wild shot percentage while getting pretty significant PP usage, the other hasn't. Stutzle's underlying numbers are actually pretty bad. Not 2019-20 Kakko bad, but bad relative to his team.
So you understand what the stat is measuring. And you simply refuse to change your opinion because “goals are earned” even though the stat measures exactly that.
This is such an old head take.
All it does is measure how often a team is generating chances from areas where goals are commonly scored. The more you generate from these areas, the higher your goal totals are likely to be.
It's not perfect as it doesn't take into account the talent of the shooter amongst other things (A shot from a high danger area from OV and Howden should not have the same value), but its not like its some fancy schmancy things that some twitter geeks made up out of thin air, it's an attempt at quantifying something that we already know and assigning a value to it. Even if we leave the numbers out of it, it doesn't take a genius to see that games played in the north division have mostly been defense optional free for alls.
It isn't just the twitter peeps either. Vally's analytics service (whose clients include several NHL teams) also measures xGF and xGA. I imagine his criteria are probably better than what the public has access to, but these teams obviously care enough to spend money into looking at these things.
Or I don't simply accept that formula or the data source utilized, and seriously kiddo... your faith in that metric has yet to be proven.
SA16
Sixstring
Stuzle has been on PP1 for exactly two games the whole season.
They also have teams of trackers for games. There are variations I've run, if they have all the placement and conversion tracking of shots, which they do, you can run the formulas far more accurately. But if you try and validate those xGF figures out there publicly.... luck and mean regression?
Some players are better than others.
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