Player Discussion Alexis Lafrenière

[IDvsEGO]

He was that bad. Better this year.

Lafreniere has been much better than Stützle, actually.

Offense is about the same but Stützle has been a nuke defensively. He's managed to go -7 despite having 6 points in 9 games. He's also shooting 30%.

As much as I think laf has played better overall as well, that whole team is a disaster defensively and +/- is not a great stat.

 

[Rempe73]

Can't believe how little patience some people have

Well when your 1OA pick is not producing like other 1OA picks before him (not even close actually), in addition to other high draft picks on this team not living up to expectations, in addition to the #3 pick producing much more, it’s starting to get concerning. I wasn’t going to say much until we got to 10 games but yea. Not to mention the hype that Lafreniere got. I don’t blame this team for choosing Lafreniere and I’m not saying I would have chosen anyone else. But the “no preseason,” “he’s only 19,” and “no player picked after him is doing much better” arguments get thrown out the window if Stutzle is playing better than him. And I wasn’t sure if he was or not. Maybe Lafreniere is playing better, but production matters too.

I’m just tired of our prospects always falling short of the hype, except for Miller and Fox. All the experts said Kakko was NHL ready. Most experts had Lafreniere winning the Calder or getting 2nd place after Igor. I heard some say he’s going to get 60 points. I’m starting to think this is an internal problem, but at the same time, Miller and Fox look like they’re going to be elite, if they aren’t already.

 

[Rempe73]

He was that bad. Better this year.

Lafreniere has been much better than Stützle, actually.

Offense is about the same but Stützle has been a nuke defensively. He's managed to go -7 despite having 6 points in 9 games. He's also shooting 30%.

Thank you very much Machinehead

 

[2014nyr]

while stutzle has had the bigger impact on the scoresheet i don't think that says much. contextually speaking their situations are so different. more than their ice time/pp mins, its about the locker room. ott is a team where their best players are around his age and theyre horrendous....our best are several years older, we have some high end talent, and we're far more competitive. the situations are just so different mentally. but for anyone who for some reason is already on the ledge with him...just look at his wjc's. made it as an underager...didn't have much of a role. came back a year later in his draft year and embarassed the tournament. he's played 10 games in the nhl. he's 19. its not quinns fault he hasn't taken off yet. its not any reflection on his potential. just give him some time

 

[jay from jersey]

while stutzle has had the bigger impact on the scoresheet i don't think that says much. contextually speaking their situations are so different. more than their ice time/pp mins, its about the locker room. ott is a team where their best players are around his age and theyre horrendous....our best are several years older, we have some high end talent, and we're far more competitive. the situations are just so different mentally. but for anyone who for some reason is already on the ledge with him...just look at his wjc's. made it as an underager...didn't have much of a role. came back a year later in his draft year and embarassed the tournament. he's played 10 games in the nhl. he's 19. its not quinns fault he hasn't taken off yet. its not any reflection on his potential. just give him some time

This. And when it clicks for him he’s going to erupt. This kid is gonna be special. Very special. Only thing I wish is that he stop getting bounce around. Feed him steady minutes and let him develop some chemistry with his line mates and the points will come. You see the explosiveness and the mind he has for that game and he’s still a teenager.!

 

[Cag29]

Well when your 1OA pick is not producing like other 1OA picks before him (not even close actually), in addition to other high draft picks on this team not living up to expectations, in addition to the #3 pick producing much more, it’s starting to get concerning. I wasn’t going to say much until we got to 10 games but yea. Not to mention the hype that Lafreniere got. I don’t blame this team for choosing Lafreniere and I’m not saying I would have chosen anyone else. But the “no preseason,” “he’s only 19,” and “no player picked after him is doing much better” arguments get thrown out the window if Stutzle is playing better than him. And I wasn’t sure if he was or not. Maybe Lafreniere is playing better, but production matters too.

I’m just tired of our prospects always falling short of the hype, except for Miller and Fox. All the experts said Kakko was NHL ready. Most experts had Lafreniere winning the Calder or getting 2nd place after Igor. I heard some say he’s going to get 60 points. I’m starting to think this is an internal problem, but at the same time, Miller and Fox look like they’re going to be elite, if they aren’t already.

Give him time. He’s played 9 games. Jesus.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Love the stat sheet surfers who are exposing themselves in here.

 

[Irishguy42]

*Sigh*

It needs to be said again: McDavid and Matthews really screwed up the expectations for the capabilities of a 1OA pick, especially ones that go into the NHL immediately post-draft.

 

[will1066]

Just produce. It's not that difficult.

 

[Smart Alek]

while stutzle has had the bigger impact on the scoresheet i don't think that says much. contextually speaking their situations are so different.

It says a great deal. Stutzle is head and shoulders above Lafreniere right now... we're talking 1st liner vs. 3rd liner.

Everyone develops at a different rate. Lafreniere will one day dominate in the NHL similar to how he dominated the Q. He'll get there but sometimes it takes time. MacKinnon hardly set the world on fire his first couple years.

This is a case of another player (Stutzle) just getting better than anyone had expected. It was obvious during the World Juniors that he'd step in right away and produce. Laf is going to have competition in his draft class, and that may turn out to be a good thing.

 

[The New Russian Five]

Well when your 1OA pick is not producing like other 1OA picks before him (not even close actually), in addition to other high draft picks on this team not living up to expectations, in addition to the #3 pick producing much more, it’s starting to get concerning. I wasn’t going to say much until we got to 10 games but yea. Not to mention the hype that Lafreniere got. I don’t blame this team for choosing Lafreniere and I’m not saying I would have chosen anyone else. But the “no preseason,” “he’s only 19,” and “no player picked after him is doing much better” arguments get thrown out the window if Stutzle is playing better than him. And I wasn’t sure if he was or not. Maybe Lafreniere is playing better, but production matters too.

I’m just tired of our prospects always falling short of the hype, except for Miller and Fox. All the experts said Kakko was NHL ready. Most experts had Lafreniere winning the Calder or getting 2nd place after Igor. I heard some say he’s going to get 60 points. I’m starting to think this is an internal problem, but at the same time, Miller and Fox look like they’re going to be elite, if they aren’t already.

Stutzle is getting 20 mins a game and PP1 time on a team so bad that he's being made to be the go to guy. Not to mention he got a head start by playing in the WJC this year. Totally different situations.

 

[LokiDog]

Laf is going to be fine. You can see it. Last year with Kakko was a lot more distressing because it was long stretches of not seeing much of anything that looked like a star talent. With Laf it’s visible. Patience is really all that’s required.

Stuetzle is special. Not saying more special than Laf, but he’s definitely a great young player and will be quite good. He also played the WJC so his last meaningful hockey was much more recent.

 

[charliemurphy]

while stutzle has had the bigger impact on the scoresheet i don't think that says much. contextually speaking their situations are so different. more than their ice time/pp mins, its about the locker room. ott is a team where their best players are around his age and theyre horrendous....our best are several years older, we have some high end talent, and we're far more competitive. the situations are just so different mentally. but for anyone who for some reason is already on the ledge with him...just look at his wjc's. made it as an underager...didn't have much of a role. came back a year later in his draft year and embarassed the tournament. he's played 10 games in the nhl. he's 19. its not quinns fault he hasn't taken off yet. its not any reflection on his potential. just give him some time

Quiet down now... you're making sense.

 

[LokiDog]

*Sigh*

It needs to be said again: McDavid and Matthews really screwed up the expectations for the capabilities of a 1OA pick, especially ones that go into the NHL immediately post-draft.

Eh, thats only partially true. Dahlin had 44 points as an 18 year old Dman. Hischier had 52 points as an 18 year old. MacKinnon had 63 as an 18 year old. Even Yakupov had 31 points in 48 games (which is a 53 pace). RNH had 52 in 62. Hall had 42 in 65. Tavares had 54.

Basically every #1OA forward in the last 10 years has put up or easily paced for 50+ points.

 

[jay from jersey]

Eh, thats only partially true. Dahlin had 44 points as an 18 year old Dman. Hischier had 52 points as an 18 year old. MacKinnon had 63 as an 18 year old. Even Yakupov had 31 points in 48 games (which is a 53 pace). RNH had 52 in 62. Hall had 42 in 65. Tavares had 54.

Basically every #1OA forward in the last 10 years has put up or easily paced for 50+ points.

All above given heavy minutes on primarily poor teams. Give LAF 20 min a night and no doubt he will score more, but the team might not win as much yet. I’m all for it. When Chytil comes back role 3 lines with equal minutes, whatever line that seems to be hottest that given night should be given the bulk of the “extra time”

 

[Baby Duck Homme]

Eh, thats only partially true. Dahlin had 44 points as an 18 year old Dman. Hischier had 52 points as an 18 year old. MacKinnon had 63 as an 18 year old. Even Yakupov had 31 points in 48 games (which is a 53 pace). RNH had 52 in 62. Hall had 42 in 65. Tavares had 54.

Basically every #1OA forward in the last 10 years has put up or easily paced for 50+ points.

It has mentioned before here but no rookie has played exclusively in the toughest division in the league in any of those seasons. This year will be an outlier in many different ways. Comparisons will be very difficult due to the current circumstances.

 

[LokiDog]

All above given heavy minutes on primarily poor teams. Give LAF 20 min a night and no doubt he will score more, but the team might not win as much yet. I’m all for it. When Chytil comes back role 3 lines with equal minutes, whatever line that seems to be hottest that given night should be given the bulk of the “extra time”

I’m not arguing that or diving into minutes and usage. I’m just saying the narrative that McDavid and Matthews screwed up expectations for 1OAs is wrong. You’d have to go back to Rick Nash in 2002 to find a 1OA forward who paced for less than 50 points in his rookie season, and the year before him Kovalchuk put up 51 in 65. It’s basically been two decades of #1OA picked forward stepping in producing at 50+ point paces. Rick Nash in 2002 and Jack Hughes in 2020 are the only forwards who didn’t.

 

[will1066]

The universe gifted us Adam Fox and threw in K'Andre Miller evidently. Laf's slow development is the universe's way of balancing things out.

 

[IDvsEGO]

I’m not arguing that or diving into minutes and usage. I’m just saying the narrative that McDavid and Matthews screwed up expectations for 1OAs is wrong. You’d have to go back to Rick Nash in 2002 to find a 1OA forward who paced for less than 50 points in his rookie season, and the year before him Kovalchuk put up 51 in 65. It’s basically been two decades of #1OA picked forward stepping in producing at 50+ point paces. Rick Nash in 2002 and Jack Hughes in 2020 are the only forwards who didn’t.

There’s also been very few 1OA’s that entered as deep a team in that position.

 

[LokiDog]

It has mentioned before here but no rookie has played exclusively in the toughest division in the league in any of those seasons. This year will be an outlier in many different ways. Comparisons will be very difficult due to the current circumstances.

My post one above the one you’re responding to said Laf is going to be fine. I was really just refuting the narrative that only McDavid and Matthews set the bar for highly selected rookie expectations. Over the past 2 decades only two rookie forwards that were #1OA produced or paced for less than 50 points. Rick Nash and Jack Hughes.

 

[LokiDog]

There’s also been very few 1OA’s that entered as deep a team in that position.

See my last post. I’m not complaining about Laf. Just talking about the narrative that most 1OAs don’t have an immediate impact.

 

[Baby Duck Homme]

My post one above the one you’re responding to said Laf is going to be fine. I was really just refuting the narrative that only McDavid and Matthews set the bar for highly selected rookie expectations. Over the past 2 decades only two rookie forwards that were #1OA produced or paced for less than 50 points. Rick Nash and Jack Hughes.

Fair enough. No real training camp, no preseason, playing against teams in our division only, getting 3rd line minutes... there is context here. I do hope he picks it up soon and gets some multi point games to get more confidence and yes I will be a bit worried at the end of the season of Laf has numbers like Hughes and Kakko. Laf does look like he belongs out there though. He isn’t behind the play too often.

 

[jay from jersey]

I’m not arguing that or diving into minutes and usage. I’m just saying the narrative that McDavid and Matthews screwed up expectations for 1OAs is wrong. You’d have to go back to Rick Nash in 2002 to find a 1OA forward who paced for less than 50 points in his rookie season, and the year before him Kovalchuk put up 51 in 65. It’s basically been two decades of #1OA picked forward stepping in producing at 50+ point paces. Rick Nash in 2002 and Jack Hughes in 2020 are the only forwards who didn’t.

Oh yea it definitely has merit. LaF has to do better at seizing his chances as well. I’m just not on the ledge yet lol. Some can’t wait to blast him. Not you but there are a few

 

[LokiDog]

Fair enough. No real training camp, no preseason, playing against teams in our division only, getting 3rd line minutes... there is context here. I do hope he picks it up soon and gets some multi point games to get more confidence and yes I will be a bit worried at the end of the season of Laf has numbers like Hughes and Kakko. Pad does look like he belongs out there though. He isn’t behind the play too often.

I’ve been vocal about the lack of camp, preseason, super long layoff between the last time he played in any games and then jumping right into meaningful NHL games and agree that he looks like he fits and shows flashes regularly. I have argued there’s nothing to worry about with Laf.

I’m responding to the concept of high expectations on high selections completely outside the context of a Laf comparison. I’m just saying that, outside of this bizarre season, it isn’t really at all unrealistic to hope for your #1 pick to pace for about 50-60 points. It’s essentially the norm.

In fact, since 2001:

#1OA selected forwards have played 997 games in their D+1 season and scored 848 points. That’s a 69.7 point pace over 20 years for forward. This is including Jack Hughes last year.

If you take Sid and Ovie out it’s 835 games and 640 points for a 62.8 point pace. If you take out McDavid and Matthews as well it goes to 708 games and 523 points for a 60.6 pace.

Even if you add in the defenseman that were drafted during those 20 years, and keep McDavid, Matthews, Ovie and Crosby out of the equation, it’s 940 games and 639 points, which comes out to a 55.7 point pace.

So basically, #1OA forwards since 2001 have averaged 69.7 points as rookies. Without Sid and a Ovie it’s 62.8 points. Without McDavid and Matthews it’s 60.6. Even with defenseman included and the big 4 excluded, it’s 55.7 points as the average over 2 decades for a #1 pick. If you include the big 4 and defenseman, it’s 1,229 games and 964 points for an averaged of 64.3 points.

 

[Baby Duck Homme]

I’ve been vocal about the lack of camp, preseason, super long layoff between the last time he played in any games and then jumping right into meaningful NHL games and agree that he looks like he fits and shows flashes regularly. I have argued there’s nothing to worry about with Laf.
I’m responding to the concept of high expectations on high selections completely outside the context of a Laf comparison. I’m just saying that, outside of this bizarre season, it isn’t really at all unrealistic to hope for your #1 pick to pace for about 50-60 points. It’s essentially the norm.

In fact, since 2001:

#1OA selected forwards have played 997 games in their D+1 season and scored 848 points. That’s a 69.7 point pace over 20 years for forward.

If you take Sid and Ovie out it’s 835 games and 640 points for a 62.8 point pace. If you take out McDavid and Matthews as well it goes to 708 games and 523 points for a 60.6 pace.

Even if you add in the defenseman that were drafted during those 20 years, and keep McDavid, Matthews, Ovie and Crosby out of the equation, it’s 940 games and 639 points, which comes out to a 55.7 point pace.

So basically, #1OA forwards since 2001 have averaged 69.7 points as rookies. Without Sid and a Ovie it’s 62.8 points. Without McDavid and Matthews it’s 60.6. Even with defenseman included and the big 4 excluded, it’s 55.7 points as the average over 2 decades for a #1 pick. If you include the big 4 and defenseman, it’s 1,229 games and 964 points for an averaged of 64.3 points.

Fair enough. Not disagreeing here. Laf is off to a slow start. Hopefully he can earn more ice time and chip in some points. The Rangers have good offensive team and is below average defensively as a team although Igor can mask some of that. I am sure some 1OA players got off to slow starts and then scored more as they adjusted as the season went on. None of are really worried about Laf, we just want to see more points from him soon for him and for us.