Albert Johansson

[norrisnick]

Sprong and Raymond weren't that far apart, just swap their ice time and linemates.

See, I can do this too

You are more right than wrong. Opportunity is huge. And who you get to play with is huge. Hockey isn't a solo effort.

I still don't think it's close. There's really nothing Sprong does as well or better than Kane, except skating.

And that's fine. I fully get that people don't agree with me, but the names on the back of the jerseys matter far more than many want to admit.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Its funny because Wally seems like a massive boom or bust guy to me. Its a huge year for his development because we need to see the overall IQ start to at least somewhat match the toolset he has. I fully expect him to either be Sproul 2.0 and flame out completely or make a major impact with the Wings. I had honestly hoped to see a bit more out of him offensively last year, but PP time does have a major impact on dmen scoring.

With that said though I disagree about Pavel's statement. Last year it very much felt to me like it was an Ed vs Aljo competition and then you had a lower comp between Viro, Tuomisto, and Wallinder. The fact that Aljo played with Ed (a true blue chip prospect) and was compared favorably or better I think speaks volumes. (Size could still be a major factor at the next level, but it does speak a lot to his IQ and skating that he was even close to Ed at the AHL level) Viro largely fell off. Wally stayed the same and Tuo seemed to play himself back into legit prospect mode.

This year I think Wally, Tuo, and Buium are all in competition. Viro probably doesn't stay with the Wings much longer, as I think its going to be very hard for him to get playing time. There is an outside chance if the Griffs only go with 2 vets, but as we don't have clear 1st pair guys down there right night (ala Aljo and Ed) I don't see that happening.

I don't see Sproul at all with him. I think he is much better defensively, but the offense may not be as high. He is better defensively than I thought (and much better than Sproul), but probably not as good offensively as I was expecting. This doesn't bother me because I wasn't expecting a top pair defensemen from Wallinder.

Last season it was a conversation of one. Ed was the only thing in GR worth considering for a call up. AlJo was just a guy (and a very undersized one at that) adjusting to the NA game. There was nothing remarkable about his play. Viro has never been a viable NHL prospect, just a minor league guy. Sebrango was precocious but hit a wall early.

This year I think you could have made a case for Ed, Aljo, Wallinder and Tuo getting a call up. All four showed positive improvement. None, however, (apart from Ed) earned one in 22-23.

 

[jaster]

And that's fine. I fully get that people don't agree with me, but the names on the back of the jerseys matter far more than many want to admit.

I agree they matter. Kane had far more leverage, in terms of demands, when he signed compared to Sprong. However, I think that had as much to do with the player he actually is today, as the reputation he brought with him.

 

[norrisnick]

I agree they matter. Kane had far more leverage, in terms of demands, when he signed compared to Sprong. However, I think that had as much to do with the player he actually is today, as the reputation he brought with him.

And a lot of that's nostalgia. Opponents that played to his reputation did far worse than those that just attacked him because he is nowhere near as capable of beating people in close. Those that didn't respect him and give him time and space usually got the puck.

 

[jaster]

Last season it was a conversation of one. Ed was the only thing in GR worth considering for a call up. AlJo was just a guy (and a very undersized one at that) adjusting to the NA game. There was nothing remarkable about his play.

AlJo was not adjusting to the NA game last season, he made that adjustment the previous season. AlJo was ridiculously consistent and stable for GR last season, his all-around game was certainly remarkable. He was significantly better than any prospect in GR last season not named Edvinsson.

This year I think you could have made a case for Ed, Aljo, Wallinder and Tuo getting a call up. All four showed positive improvement. None, however, (apart from Ed) earned one in 22-23.

Ed didn't earn one in 22-23 either.

Last season, Ed and AlJo were both ready. Obviously only one got the call.

This season, Ed and AlJo are again both ready, and we'll see both play. Wallinder is not ready, still has a lot to work on, but could conceivably get there by the end of the season. I wouldn't bet on it though. He'll more likely get a look in 25-26. Tuomisto is a bit of a dark horse, he's put himself back on the map, but that combination of questionable skating and inability to defend well are rough in terms of NHL projection.

 

[jaster]

I don't see Sproul at all with him. I think he is much better defensively, but the offense may not be as high. He is better defensively than I thought (and much better than Sproul), but probably not as good offensively as I was expecting. This doesn't bother me because I wasn't expecting a top pair defensemen from Wallinder.

Wallinder may not have the box of rocks brain that Sproul did, but there is still Sproul-risk here in terms of people dreaming on the size-skating combo while being blind to the rest of his game. Wallinder is a very incomplete player, and while he has the potential to develop into a more complete player, people often seem to want to skip over that part with him. He still needs to learn how to defend for instance. That's a critical step in getting to the NHL.

 

[norrisnick]

Wally always struck me as a physical middle ground between Ed and Al but without the defensive acumin. He looks like a player on the surface, but what's underneath?

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

AlJo was not adjusting to the NA game last season, he made that adjustment the previous season. AlJo was ridiculously consistent and stable for GR last season, his all-around game was certainly remarkable. He was significantly better than any prospect in GR last season not named Edvinsson.


Ed didn't earn one in 22-23 either.

Last season, Ed and AlJo were both ready. Obviously only one got the call.

This season, Ed and AlJo are again both ready, and we'll see both play. Wallinder is not ready, still has a lot to work on, but could conceivably get there by the end of the season. I wouldn't bet on it though. He'll more likely get a look in 25-26. Tuomisto is a bit of a dark horse, he's put himself back on the map, but that combination of questionable skating and inability to defend well are rough in terms of NHL projection.

Last season being 22-23
This season being 23-24

Truthfully, I think all are pretty imperfect prospects. Ed still needs to close quicker defensively, Aljo can defend transition and retrieve pucks but loses a lot of his effectiveness once the opposition establishes possession in the defensive zone, He doesn't make a lot of one-on-one stops and isn't much of a shot blocker. Tuo still needs tighter gaps and needs to close faster (question as to whether his feet will allow it) and Wallinder still chases the play a bit too much (but has gotten much better in terms of one-on-one defending in the last twelve months). I personally would like to see him be more aggressive.

If I had to put money on it, my guess is that we get two NHLers out of the bunch (one being Ed for sure). Unlike you, I am worried about Aljo's size and strength at the next level. This leaves me hedging towards one of the other two.

 

[jaster]

Last season being 22-23
This season being 23-24

Truthfully, I think all are pretty imperfect prospects. Ed still needs to close quicker defensively, Aljo can defend transition and retrieve pucks but loses a lot of his effectiveness once the opposition establishes possession in the defensive zone, He doesn't make a lot of one-on-one stops and isn't much of a shot blocker. Tuo still needs tighter gaps and needs to close faster (question as to whether his feet will allow it) and Wallinder still chases the play a bit too much (but has gotten much better in terms of one-on-one defending in the last twelve months). I personally would like to see him be more aggressive.

If I had to put money on it, my guess is that we get two NHLers out of the bunch (one being Ed for sure). Unlike you, I am worried about Aljo's size and strength at the next level. This leaves me hedging towards one of the other two.

I've repeatedly mentioned AlJo's size and strength as my only concern with him, so it doesn't appear we disagree on him in terms of that. I think the difference here is that you are expecting him not to make it, and I'm not setting any expectations on him making it or not making it at all. My approach to him is that I do really love his makeup, and so if he makes it, I'll be a big fan. But I also acknowledge he may not make it at all, because his size at the NHL level doesn't allow his game to translate.

We all have our biases with players, and mine, when it comes to defensemen, are high IQ, high panic threshold, good work ethic, and good skater, in no real order. So that's why I like him. But I don't presume that that particular makeup is necessarily more likely to produce an NHLer than someone else's preference of some other set of abilities.

I largely agree with your scouting notes, although I've watched AlJo repeatedly make one-on-one stops, so I see that as a strength of his, not a weakness.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Why are Swedish prospects beyond reproach around here. Serious question.

They aren't? Plenty of them suck. Niederbach. The Dower Nilssons aren't trending all that well. Gustav Berglund and Gustav Lindström were busts. Anton Johansson has some promise but also a lot of warts. Pellikka gets a bit overhyped. None of that has to do with their nationality though.

 

[HisNoodliness]

I've repeatedly mentioned AlJo's size and strength as my only concern with him, so it doesn't appear we disagree on him in terms of that. I think the difference here is that you are expecting him not to make it, and I'm not setting any expectations on him making it or not making it at all. My approach to him is that I do really love his makeup, and so if he makes it, I'll be a big fan. But I also acknowledge he may not make it at all, because his size at the NHL level doesn't allow his game to translate.

We all have our biases with players, and mine, when it comes to defensemen, are high IQ, high panic threshold, good work ethic, and good skater, in no real order. So that's why I like him. But I don't presume that that particular makeup is necessarily more likely to produce an NHLer than someone else's preference of some other set of abilities.

I largely agree with your scouting notes, although I've watched AlJo repeatedly make one-on-one stops, so I see that as a strength of his, not a weakness.

Honestly my biggest problem with AlJo is just that he's too old to be seeing NHL ice for the first time. Obviously there's a selection effect there, but I think anyone that doesn't have at least a partial season of NHL competition at this point is unlikely to learn how to play against NHL competition competently. Even this year, he's slated to be competing just to be in the lineup. He'll be making rookie mistakes still for a couple seasons and there's not much patience in NHL coaches for 25 year olds making rookie mistakes.

I think it's okay for forwards because picking apart a defensive system at the AHL level is qualitatively the same as at the NHL level. Trying to stop top level NHL forwards is fundamentally different than AHL all stars.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

Honestly my biggest problem with AlJo is just that he's too old to be seeing NHL ice for the first time. Obviously there's a selection effect there, but I think anyone that doesn't have at least a partial season of NHL competition at this point is unlikely to learn how to play against NHL competition competently. Even this year, he's slated to be competing just to be in the lineup. He'll be making rookie mistakes still for a couple seasons and there's not much patience in NHL coaches for 25 year olds making rookie mistakes.

I think it's okay for forwards because picking apart a defensive system at the AHL level is qualitatively the same as at the NHL level. Trying to stop top level NHL forwards is fundamentally different than AHL all stars.

I've not really seen Johansson play so take this with a major grain of salt, but unlike say Ed, it sounds like Johansson would be more of a lower pairing guy.

In that regard I think coaches and GM's are more tolerant of mistakes from young players, especially considering the cap space it saves to have a young guy there versus a bottom pairing vet who will also make mistakes (think Maatta at $3 million).

Another concern is he's still listed at 168 lbs. I'm hoping that's his draft weight and not accurate anymore as a 23 yr old otherwise the kid will get knocked down by an aggressive fart.

 

[jaster]

Honestly my biggest problem with AlJo is just that he's too old to be seeing NHL ice for the first time. Obviously there's a selection effect there, but I think anyone that doesn't have at least a partial season of NHL competition at this point is unlikely to learn how to play against NHL competition competently. Even this year, he's slated to be competing just to be in the lineup. He'll be making rookie mistakes still for a couple seasons and there's not much patience in NHL coaches for 25 year olds making rookie mistakes.

I think it's okay for forwards because picking apart a defensive system at the AHL level is qualitatively the same as at the NHL level. Trying to stop top level NHL forwards is fundamentally different than AHL all stars.

I don't have numbers in front of me, but how many current NHL defensemen were breaking into the league at age 22 or younger? I have to guess it's a minority. I don't know, I see what you're saying, but I can't say that factor is a concern for me.

I would certainly liked to have seen AlJo get a look this past season, I think he earned it and I think he was ready. But I don't think the fact that he didn't will impact his long-term value much at all. He's either got the ability to be an NHLer or he does not. This level of nuance in terms of development I believe is somewhat overrated.

 

[schuelma24]

I'm not going to claim I'm an expert, but I saw him with the Griffins multiple times this year and 1- he looked great. Not just solid, but great, and 2- while he's not huge, he didn't seem tiny and weak by any stretch.

 

[jaster]

Another concern is he's still listed at 168 lbs. I'm hoping that's his draft weight and not accurate anymore as a 23 yr old otherwise the kid will get knocked down by an aggressive fart.

That's an old weight, Griffins had him listed at 185 this year.

I'm not going to claim I'm an expert, but I saw him with the Griffins multiple times this year and 1- he looked great. Not just solid, but great, and 2- while he's not huge, he didn't seem tiny and weak by any stretch.

Yeah, he often gets painted into this corner of "small defenseman," which, if this is a binary thing and every defenseman is either big or small, sure I guess he's small. But he shouldn't be categorized with the real midget defensemen in the NHL, he's a bit bigger than that. And I agree, when I watched him this year, size-wise, he just looked like a guy out there, he didn't look small and he wasn't getting pushed around.

 

[HisNoodliness]

I don't have numbers in front of me, but how many current NHL defensemen were breaking into the league at age 22 or younger? I have to guess it's a minority. I don't know, I see what you're saying, but I can't say that factor is a concern for me.

I would certainly liked to have seen AlJo get a look this past season, I think he earned it and I think he was ready. But I don't think the fact that he didn't will impact his long-term value much at all. He's either got the ability to be an NHLer or he does not. This level of nuance in terms of development I believe is somewhat overrated.

Honestly, you'd be surprised. I don't know where I can look this up for around the league, but the vast majority at least have a cup of coffee by 22. For example, on the Wings last year, only Holl made it later and Walman at 23 (he played 1 game at 22 which I won't count). Walman only had 25 games at 23, so he is the example of a guy that even at this point, found a way to turn it around. But Walman is pretty well known for making bone-headed mistakes all these years later and the Blues clearly didn't think he was ever going to amount to anything. He's a 'found gold, late bloomer' exception. Holl clearly sucks.

For the quick search I did of better teams, it's essentially only their bad bottom pairing fighting types that make it this late for the first time. Florida, for example, has 11 defenseman listed on their roster and only 2 irrelevant guys that I don't recognize made it at 23 or later. I didn't find any top 4 D outside of Walman that started this late on the 4 teams that I checked. I'm sure there are a few counter examples, but unless there's a website that would let me search for this, I'm not spending the time on an exhaustive search.

There is a selection effect there though that skews the number. Better players make it earlier because they're better and teams want to utilize them. They end up being good and sticking around not only because they had a better development path, but also just because they're better to begin with. I don't think that selection effect is near enough to explain the data, but that's debatable.

It's also not that 23 is some magical cutoff. AlJo could still be fine, but I think if he can't play a lot of NHL hockey this year, the path only gets tougher. We're also working in Edvinsson as a rookie at the same time with more prospects close behind. He doesn't have much runway and opportunity to use what runway he does have.

 

[norrisnick]

Toews is probably the biggest example of an older rookie ending up solidly in the top 4. He didn't play in the NHL until 24 after 3 full years in the AHL. He's also probably the pie in the sky ceiling of a decidedly average statured defenseman without elite offense. AlJo should focus on a guy like JJ Moser first.

 

[izlez]

Honestly, you'd be surprised. I don't know where I can look this up for around the league, but the vast majority at least have a cup of coffee by 22. For example, on the Wings last year, only Holl made it later and Walman at 23 (he played 1 game at 22 which I won't count). Walman only had 25 games at 23, so he is the example of a guy that even at this point, found a way to turn it around. But Walman is pretty well known for making bone-headed mistakes all these years later and the Blues clearly didn't think he was ever going to amount to anything. He's a 'found gold, late bloomer' exception. Holl clearly sucks.

For the quick search I did of better teams, it's essentially only their bad bottom pairing fighting types that make it this late for the first time. Florida, for example, has 11 defenseman listed on their roster and only 2 irrelevant guys that I don't recognize made it at 23 or later. I didn't find any top 4 D outside of Walman that started this late on the 4 teams that I checked. I'm sure there are a few counter examples, but unless there's a website that would let me search for this, I'm not spending the time on an exhaustive search.

There is a selection effect there though that skews the number. Better players make it earlier because they're better and teams want to utilize them. They end up being good and sticking around not only because they had a better development path, but also just because they're better to begin with. I don't think that selection effect is near enough to explain the data, but that's debatable.

It's also not that 23 is some magical cutoff. AlJo could still be fine, but I think if he can't play a lot of NHL hockey this year, the path only gets tougher. We're also working in Edvinsson as a rookie at the same time with more prospects close behind. He doesn't have much runway and opportunity to use what runway he does have.

Do you believe if Yzerman arbitrarily gave him a cup of coffee last year it would meaningfully change the outlook of his NHL career?

Virtually no later draft picks from that year are playing meaningful hockey in the NHL at this point. They all need to grow as players. I don't think putting them in the NHL for the sake of putting them in the NHL has any more merit than the classic Red Wings strategy of overripening and dominating the league you're in

 

[Winger98]

Do you believe if Yzerman arbitrarily gave him a cup of coffee last year it would meaningfully change the outlook of his NHL career?

Virtually no later draft picks from that year are playing meaningful hockey in the NHL at this point. They all need to grow as players. I don't think putting them in the NHL for the sake of putting them in the NHL has any more merit than the classic Red Wings strategy of overripening and dominating the league you're in

I think he's saying that players who are legitimately good enough for the NHL push their way into the league in that time frame, not that they are gifted minutes. If there are remarkably fewer players from this draft year than others that are doing that...it might just point to a poor draft overall.

Or have to wonder if covid didn't screw with their developments, and we'll see a wave of guys making it later. Or never making it.

 

[izlez]

I think he's saying that players who are legitimately good enough for the NHL push their way into the league in that time frame, not that they are gifted minutes. If there are remarkably fewer players from this draft year than others that are doing that...it might just point to a poor draft overall.

Or have to wonder if covid didn't screw with their developments, and we'll see a wave of guys making it later. Or never making it.

I get that is what he is probably actually saying... My point is that he's wrong. That's why I included the bit about overripening and dominating the league your in.

It's not remarkably fewer players. It's not a poor draft overall. Players just need more time.

Look at the 2018, 2019, 2020 drafts and tell me how many players drafted beyond ~50th or so you would accept on to your team today if you were gunning for a Stanley Cup today. 3 or 4?

Look at the 2014, 2015, 2016 drafts and tell me how many players drafted beyond ~50th or so you would accept on to your team today if you were gunning for a Stanley Cup today. Lots. Because they continued to get better after 23

Most 23 year old's need to improve if they are going to have successful NHL careers. The fact that Yzerman signed Holl and Johansson doesn't have 17 NHL games played doesn't change his outlook

 

[jaster]

Honestly, you'd be surprised. I don't know where I can look this up for around the league, but the vast majority at least have a cup of coffee by 22. For example, on the Wings last year, only Holl made it later and Walman at 23 (he played 1 game at 22 which I won't count). Walman only had 25 games at 23, so he is the example of a guy that even at this point, found a way to turn it around. But Walman is pretty well known for making bone-headed mistakes all these years later and the Blues clearly didn't think he was ever going to amount to anything. He's a 'found gold, late bloomer' exception. Holl clearly sucks.

For the quick search I did of better teams, it's essentially only their bad bottom pairing fighting types that make it this late for the first time. Florida, for example, has 11 defenseman listed on their roster and only 2 irrelevant guys that I don't recognize made it at 23 or later. I didn't find any top 4 D outside of Walman that started this late on the 4 teams that I checked. I'm sure there are a few counter examples, but unless there's a website that would let me search for this, I'm not spending the time on an exhaustive search.

There is a selection effect there though that skews the number. Better players make it earlier because they're better and teams want to utilize them. They end up being good and sticking around not only because they had a better development path, but also just because they're better to begin with. I don't think that selection effect is near enough to explain the data, but that's debatable.

It's also not that 23 is some magical cutoff. AlJo could still be fine, but I think if he can't play a lot of NHL hockey this year, the path only gets tougher. We're also working in Edvinsson as a rookie at the same time with more prospects close behind. He doesn't have much runway and opportunity to use what runway he does have.

I don't know, I'm still not convinced the vast majority of NHL defensemen are breaking into the league as young as you're saying.

Looking at current Red Wings defensemen and when they started breaking into the NHL (I'm not counting 1- or 2-game cups of coffee):

Holl - 27 and 2mo
Petry - 25 and 10mo
Walman - 25 and 1mo
Chiarot - 23 and 7mo
Ghost - 22 and 7mo
Seider - 20 and 6mo
Maatta - 19 and 2mo
Ed - 19 and 1mo

AlJo will be 23 and 9mo when next season gets underway. If he gets used semi-regularly, that puts him pretty close to middle of the pack here, closest to Chiarot. He's really not that old for a defenseman, and I just don't see him as the outlier that is being described.

I think he's saying that players who are legitimately good enough for the NHL push their way into the league in that time frame, not that they are gifted minutes. If there are remarkably fewer players from this draft year than others that are doing that...it might just point to a poor draft overall.

Or have to wonder if covid didn't screw with their developments, and we'll see a wave of guys making it later. Or never making it.

Good point about Covid, we're probably still seeing some effects there. Maybe not for AlJo in this particular case, but in general.

But to the bold... if that's the case, then I'm even less worried about AlJo in regards to this age argument. He was ready for at least a cup of coffee last season, and only didn't get that because of the Petry-Holl fiasco effect.

 

[Frk It]

I don't know, I'm still not convinced the vast majority of NHL defensemen are breaking into the league as young as you're saying. Forwards don't even break in that young generally, and defensemen take longer.

Looking at current Red Wings defensemen and when they started breaking into the NHL (I'm not counting 1- or 2-game cups of coffee):

Holl - 27 and 2mo
Petry - 25 and 10mo
Walman - 25 and 1mo
Chiarot - 23 and 7mo
Ghost - 22 and 7mo
Seider - 20 and 6mo
Maatta - 19 and 2mo
Ed - 19 and 1mo

AlJo will be 23 and 9mo when next season gets underway. If he gets used semi-regularly, that puts him pretty close to middle of the pack here, closest to Chiarot. He's really not that old for a defenseman, and I just don't see him as the outlier that is being described.


Good point about Covid, we're probably still seeing some effects there. Maybe not for AlJo in this particular case, but in general.

But to the bold... if that's the case, then I'm even less worried about AlJo in regards to this age argument. He was ready for at least a cup of coffee last season, and only didn't get that because of the Petry-Holl fiasco effect.

How many teams have 3 defenseman that broke into the league at 25 or older?

I’d guess most teams wouldn’t.

 

[jaster]

How many teams have 3 defenseman that broke into the league at 25 or older?

I’d guess most teams wouldn’t.

That's not the right question. How many teams have 3 defensemen who broke into the league at 23 or older?

I'd guess most teams.

 

[Henkka]

How many teams have 3 defenseman that broke into the league at 25 or older?

I’d guess most teams wouldn’t.

Nashville once was and we had that Nashville scout drafting these guys.

How many of teams have had three 6'6 and 6'4 great skating young defencemen at same time?

We could maybe be the only one ever.

 

[Frk It]

That's not the right question. How many teams have 3 defensemen who broke into the league at 23 or older?

I'd guess most teams.

Well he’s only “middle of the pack” for us because we have a bunch of those guys. If you take them out he could be all the way on the end.