Rumor: Aho extension close: Expected ~$9.5M-$10M

[robbieberns]

I think a lot of non Canes fans in here are unfairly judging him based on the point totals he’s achieved without understanding how that fits in with the system he plays in and arguably the talent he’s played with. If he had a Tkachuk/Kucherov/Pastrnak on his wing and/or was given the freedom to play a full fledged offensive game outside of Rod’s strict defensive responsibility focused parameters I think he’d be closer to a 90 pt guy with a chance at cracking 100.

Does that mean I think he’s a solidified top 10 center in this league? No. Do I think he’s absolutely worth 9.5-10 even if he tops out as a PPG guy? Absolutely.

 

[Svechhammer]

If Aho was playing on a team like the Canucks, Sabres, Panthers, he would be sniffing around or above 100 points each year, and non-hurricanes fans would think 9.5-10 is a steal.

As a Hurricane's fan, this is a great price to have Aho signed long term.

Its very interesting. In general, the Canes ask players to play a style that doesn't get you the recognition around the league that they probably deserve (that is, a defensively sound game, at times sacrificing offensive opportunities to prevent the chance of a high danger opportunity against) but then are surprised when we are willing to pay those same players a little bit more than everyone thinks they are worth. Guys like Jordan Staal and Slavin should be finalists for defensive awards every year, but they don't produce enough offense to even show up on the radar, and Aho's career is going down a similar path where his defensive responsibilities are helping us win a lot games but hold back the offensive stats he really could have elsewhere.

 

[Derailed75]

What's your data to back up that assertion? Earlier in the thread, I stated Eichel is better than Aho, and someone (non Canes fan) provided data to dispute my statement. I couldn't argue with his facts. I'm curious what data backs up the "significantly better" statement you made. I was unable find find data to back up my earlier statement, so if you have that data, I'd like to see it so I can use it.

Muh eye test, derp!

 

[StormCast]

I think a lot of non Canes fans in here are unfairly judging him based on the point totals he’s achieved without understanding how that fits in with the system he plays in and arguably the talent he’s played with. If he had a Tkachuk/Kucherov/Pastrnak on his wing and/or was given the freedom to play a full fledged offensive game outside of Rod’s strict defensive responsibility focused parameters I think he’d be closer to a 90 pt guy with a chance at cracking 100.

Does that mean I think he’s a solidified top 10 center in this league? No. Do I think he’s absolutely worth 9.5-10 even if he tops out as a PPG guy? Absolutely.

He does have the freedom to play a full-fledged offensive game, as does every Canes forward, he just hasn't had the luxury of playing with two top end wings.

 

[StormCast]

Its very interesting. In general, the Canes ask players to play a style that doesn't get you the recognition around the league that they probably deserve (that is, a defensively sound game, at times sacrificing offensive opportunities to prevent the chance of a high danger opportunity against) but then are surprised when we are willing to pay those same players a little bit more than everyone thinks they are worth. Guys like Jordan Staal and Slavin should be finalists for defensive awards every year, but they don't produce enough offense to even show up on the radar, and Aho's career is going down a similar path where his defensive responsibilities are helping us win a lot games but hold back the offensive stats he really could have elsewhere.

No, they aren't sacrificing offense, that's just and oft-repeated false narrative.

 

[Ole Gil]

No, they aren't sacrificing offense, that's just and oft-repeated false narrative.

"Not making high risk/high reward plays hurts your offensive numbers" seems like a pretty straight forward line of thinking, no?

 

[Derailed75]

No, they aren't sacrificing offense, that's just and oft-repeated false narrative.

Well that is true however every Canes forward has to play a defensively responsible game first and foremost or they don't get to skate. Yes that takes away from their offensive game if nothing more then the energy left to push offense. Its by no means a knock on any of the skaters just points out they would most likely score a little more in a different system

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

I don’t know if it’s a conscious thing. They’re almost too effective in retrieval and possession. It cuts off the counterattack. They were bottom in the league in rush chances at one point, IIRC.

 

[StormCast]

"Not making high risk/high reward plays hurts your offensive numbers" seems like a pretty straight forward line of thinking, no?

Yes, straight forward line of thinking but the simple point is the Canes just don't play that way. Every D has the green light to pinch, they have an aggressive two-man forecheck at all times, the system calls for them to play with energy and at a high pace. The most common reason cited is dumping the puck so much. Ok and? That's what they do when they can't carry it in the zone, which happens a lot due to current roster configuration. They don't have those elusive players outside of Necas.

 

[StormCast]

Well that is true however every Canes forward has to play a defensively responsible game first and foremost or they don't get to skate. Yes that takes away from their offensive game if nothing more then the energy left to push offense. Its by no means a knock on any of the skaters just points out they would most likely score a little more in a different system

They are required to be defensively responsible but that doesn't make it a defense-first system. Neither Svech nor Necas are particularly good without the puck, but that doesn't hurt their ice time. Their puck possession system on offense is a part of being defensively responsible. Puck possession teams create more chances but they lack finishers and snipers. It's a personnel issue, not a system issue.

 

[Derailed75]

They are required to be defensively responsible but that doesn't make it a defense-first system. Neither Svech nor Necas are particularly good without the puck, but that doesn't hurt their ice time. Their puck possession system on offense is a part of being defensively responsible. Puck possession teams create more chances but they lack finishers and snipers. It's a personnel issue, not a system issue.

There's a reason Aho leads the league in short handed goals. Its because he is a terrific finisher that doesn't get break away chances often 5v5 because he is being defensively responsible.

Personally I dont understand the logic in him having a greener light on the kill then 5v5 but it works.

If you really think the Canes get the best offensive versions of Aho Svech and Necas im not really sure what to tell you.

I will admit though I dont believe Svech or Necas would score a lot more but there's doubt in my mind Aho would be a regular 50 goal scorer

 

[StormCast]

There's a reason Aho leads the league in short handed goals. Its because he is a terrific finisher that doesn't get break away chances often 5v5 because he is being defensively responsible.

Personally I dont understand the logic in him having a greener light on the kill then 5v5 but it works.

If you really think the Canes get the best offensive versions of Aho Svech and Necas im not really sure what to tell you.

I will admit though I dont believe Svech or Necas would score a lot more but there's doubt in my mind Aho would be a regular 50 goal scorer

They aren't the best offensive versions of Aho, Svech and Necas because of the supporting cast among forwards, not because of the system restricting them.

The Aho logic on PK vs. 5v5 misses a key point. At 5v5, Aho is down low not flying the zone like a high forward. Surely, you aren't suggesting your C flies the zone routinely? On the PK, he is high and his chances often result from picking off D-to-D passes with only one guy to beat. Two very different scenarios.

In an outlier year, Aho could hit 50 goas but not regularly. He'd need to a sniper to hit that level consistently and he is not. Great overall player but, let's not get carried away.

 

[Ole Gil]

In the Ozone, the Canes offense goes through the defense so much, that has to skew scoring away from the forwards as well.

But for me, the big difference is Aho is not Jeff Skinner or Jack Hughes floating around the neutral zone hoping the Canes win possession and can get it to him.

And to the Canes credit, I'd assume the reasoning is that they can score through possession, rather than transition.

 

[CapSpace]

Per Adam Gold who is the local radio guy that covers the Canes. He has some insight to the Canes, but also speculates with his own thoughts sometimes. He seems pretty bullish on this though.

"Sacrificing" Kotkaniemi.

Lol.

 

[EverTheCynic]

If Bo Horvat got $8.5m long term, Aho is at the very least worthy of $9-10.

 

[Nico13]

Not bad. Would be better a 11 or 12 AAV but still ok.

 

[kevsh]

I think a lot of non Canes fans in here are unfairly judging him

Let me just chime in that I'm not one of them.

Big fan of Aho's game and a deal in this rumored range seems absolutely fair given the current market and expected cap increase.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

9.5 seems like a bargain, but I want to see term first. I would hope they get at least 5 years.

Canes should be in full court press mode with Slavin's deal expiring the year after next.

 

[StreetHawk]

9.5 seems like a bargain, but I want to see term first. I would hope they get at least 5 years.

Canes should be in full court press mode with Slavin's deal expiring the year after next.

Relative to Horvat and PLD at $8.5 mill, Larkin at $8.7 mill and Barzal at $9.15 mill. Barkov is at $10 mill if comparing vs the higher end. Points wise, Aho has been better than all 4 and is considered better defensively than them as well. He should definitely be pushing as close to $10 mill as he can.

He would begin the deal at 27. Barzal starts at 26, Larkin at 27, Horvat at 28, and PLD at 25. Barkov starts his at 27 as well as a point of reference.

 

[Cardiac Jerks]

9.5 seems like a bargain, but I want to see term first. I would hope they get at least 5 years.

Canes should be in full court press mode with Slavin's deal expiring the year after next.

This is a ufa deal for a top talent. Why would it be a shorter term? Surely it’s going to be 8 years as he’s only 25. He can still sign another nice UFA contract when it expires.

 

[PromisedLand]

Perhaps, but other than tanking and drafting such player as a 1C, it's rare that it happens. Yes, Eichel is 1 example, but looking at the recent SC champs:

VGN: Eichel (Traded for)
COL: MacKinnon (drafted)
TBL: Stamkos/Point (drafted)
TBL: Stamkos/Point (drafted)
STL: ROR (Traded for)
WSH: Backstrom (drafted)
PIT: Crosby/Malkin (drafted)
PIT: Crosby/Malkin (drafted)
CHI: Toews (Drafted)
LAK: Kopitar (Drafted)
CHI: Toews (Drafted)
LAK: Koptar (Drafted)
BOS: Bergeron (Drafted)
CHI: Toews (Drafted)
PIT: Crosby/Malkin (Drafted)
DET: Datsyuk/Zetterberg (Drafted)
ANA: Getzlaf (Drafted)
CAR: Staal (Drafted)

So it's fine to say "maybe they need someone better", but in reality it's not common for a team to get a 1C other than drafting one and win a Stanley cup. I see 2 in the last 18(ish) years.

Datsyuk and Zetterberg for where they were picked is really an outlier. has there mean many such picks in recent past? IMO Detroit jsut got lucky with those picks

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Anyone who doesn't think Aho is worth 1.5M more than what he's currently making is out to lunch or has never seen a Caroline game + judging him on box scores

 

[Tryamw]

I'm sure Carolina fans will be thrilled that people are making JT Miller proposals in a thread about an Aho contract extension

Let's us know we are on HFBoards

 

[TBF1972]

And not in Canadian dollars either. I could have sworn he was destined for Montreal when he was FA eligible. At least that is what i was told.

he would have.

but then they focussed more on dubois.

 

[Coffees]

Hang on bud, wait and see if the Habs draft a C or W first.

They drafted a D