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Buffalo Bills AFCCG: (2) Buffalo at (1) Kansas City; Sunday 1/26 @ 6:30 PM ET, CBS

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I really hate this week.

I think the Bills are a better team than the Chiefs.
I think Josh Allen is better than Patrick Mahomes.

The problem is, my years of Buffalo fandom and "we don't get nice things" mindset, says:
  • The Bills won't get to the Super Bowl
  • The Chiefs will always find a way to beat us in the playoffs.
If we played the Chiefs last week without the Super Bowl on the line, I would be confident in our ability to finally overcome them in the playoffs. If we made it to the AFC Championship without having to face Kansas City, I would feel confident about our chances about getting to another Super Bowl. But, to accomplish both in one game? Its tough for my (lived through 4 Super Bowl losses and a playoff drought) to BILLIEVE both could be vanquished on Sunday. I have set my expectations very low. Very, very cautiously optimistic but doubtful (if both of those feelings can be had simultaneously).
 
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I think the same thing I thought about the Ravens game:

- This is Buffalo's rebuild year, and they are already playing with house money
- I do not expect them to win
- The experience gained with be huge to this very young group of Bills.
 
Digable5 said:
I really hate this week.

I think the Bills are a better team than the Chiefs.
I think Josh Allen is better than Patrick Mahomes.

The problem is, my years of Buffalo fandom and "we don't get nice things" mindset, says:
  • The Bills won't get to the Super Bowl
  • The Chiefs will always find a way to beat us in the playoffs.
If we played the Chiefs last week without the Super Bowl on the line, I would be confident in our ability to finally overcome them in the playoffs. If we made it to the AFC Championship without having to face Kansas City, I would feel confident about our chances about getting to another Super Bowl. But, to accomplish both in one game? Its tough for my (lived through 4 Super Bowl losses and a playoff drought) to BILLIEVE both could be vanquished on Sunday. I have set my expectations very low. Very, very cautiously optimistic but doubtful (if both of those feelings can be had simultaneously).
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I think you summed up the Buffalo mindset pretty well. Actually winning the big one just feels so out of the realm of something that could possibly happen as a Buffalo fan.

But like I said earlier, this year just has a vibe to it where things feel a bit different. I can't really explain it. All I can say is I really hope they can get over the hump this year and get it done. We don't get these chances often.
 
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Digable5 said:
I really hate this week.

I think the Bills are a better team than the Chiefs.
I think Josh Allen is better than Patrick Mahomes.

The problem is, my years of Buffalo fandom and "we don't get nice things" mindset, says:
  • The Bills won't get to the Super Bowl
  • The Chiefs will always find a way to beat us in the playoffs.
If we played the Chiefs last week without the Super Bowl on the line, I would be confident in our ability to finally overcome them in the playoffs. If we made it to the AFC Championship without having to face Kansas City, I would feel confident about our chances about getting to another Super Bowl. But, to accomplish both in one game? Its tough for my (lived through 4 Super Bowl losses and a playoff drought) to BILLIEVE both could be vanquished on Sunday. I have set my expectations very low. Very, very cautiously optimistic but doubtful (if both of those feelings can be had simultaneously).
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I think everyone who has been a long time buffalo fan has this exact mentality!
 
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sabresfan129103 said:
I think you summed up the Buffalo mindset pretty well. Actually winning the big one just feels so out of the realm of something that could possibly happen as a Buffalo fan.

But like I said earlier this year just has a vibe to it where things feel a bit different. I can't really explain it. All I can say is I really hope they can get over the hump this year and get it done. We don't get these chances often.
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It reminds me of 2020 in terms of no one expected them to get here--albeit for different reasons--except the team and a lot of the coaching staff have more experience and perspective on what goes into finding success and how they can all work/learn well together.
 
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Der Jaeger said:
The rare egoless #1 receiver. He's worth resigning, even though I think Coleman will be the #1 next year.
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Man, I don't know. I like the size he has and the hands but for what he may be offered in free agency, I'd have liked to see him make a few more plays in the stretch run here.

Shakir and Coleman should be getting plenty of targets next year and I think Hollins is something resembling another red-zone threat. I'm not giving up on Kincaid yet, either.

For what Cooper may command on the market, is it worth it for that production? He's got a great attitude, I totally love the guy, I just don't know that he's a luxury we need.
 
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I know that no one wants to talk draft except me. I'm at work in South Carolina managing a snow-mergency. Or what Buffalo would call any Wednesday during winter.

I've run a TON of mock drafts. I think Shavon Revel could be the pick. He would've went a lot higher but got hurt, and he projects as a CB with man type tools who has zone IQ. He needs to pass his medical exams and perform well at the combine and his pro day.

He's constantly available when the Bills pick in round 1, all the 1DT are gone (Grant, Williams), and he sticks out as easily the BPA.
 
Der Jaeger said:
I know that no one wants to talk draft except me. I'm at work in South Carolina managing a snow-mergency. Or what Buffalo would call any Wednesday during winter.

I've run a TON of mock drafts. I think Shavon Revel could be the pick. He would've went a lot higher but got hurt, and he projects as a CB with man type tools who has zone IQ. He needs to pass his medical exams and perform well at the combine and his pro day.

He's constantly available when the Bills pick in round 1, all the 1DT are gone (Grant, Williams), and he sticks out as easily the BPA.
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Boooooooooo!
 
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buffalowing88 said:
Man, I don't know. I like the size he has and the hands but for what he may be offered in free agency, I'd have liked to see him make a few more plays in the stretch run here.

Shakir and Coleman should be getting plenty of targets next year and I think Hollins is something resembling another red-zone threat. I'm not giving up on Kincaid yet, either.

For what Cooper may command on the market, is it worth it for that production? He's got a great attitude, I totally love the guy, I just don't know that he's a luxury we need.
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Yea I'm not sure investing what's projected to be around $14m/y for Amari is the way. Love the guy, but I'm looking at Coleman 'replacing' Amari while on his rookie deal. You re-up Mack, who won't command a huge raise. Hope Samuel rebounds a bit and can start the year healthy. I'd then think about sorta replacing Colemans role from this year with another depth vet who can get deep who won't command a big deal, maybe a Slayton or Demar Robinson type. Everybodies still gonna eat.
 
Digable5 said:
I really hate this week.

I think the Bills are a better team than the Chiefs.
Click to expand...

Eh. I think KC has an elite defense. They have an outstanding D-line and secondary. A little weakness at the LB core, but overall, a top tier defense, as good at the Ravens defense we saw last week.

Their special teams is also top notch.

The weak link is on offense, but honestly, that has been mostly injury related. Now, they are fully healthy now and haven't really blown anyone out...but that is mostly because they haven't had to. If anything, I wouldn't characterize their offense as bad but rather risk adverse. Its the reason they haven't turned the ball over since the bills game.

The chiefs play to win games, not to throttle anyone. And they are great at it.

I also think their offense has a gear they simply haven't used yet.

The key is very simple: you have to score enough on them their offense has to be aggressive and that can (not will) lead to them making mistakes.

I think this week will be our biggest test yet.


Digable5 said:
I think Josh Allen is better than Patrick Mahomes.
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I love Josh Allen, but Mahommes has 2 MVPs and 3 super bowl titles and 4 conference championships. I get he's had better teams around him, but I don't think its a conversation, especially with Allen being 0 and 3 against him in the playoffs.

Until Allen has some hardware to backup the eye test that we all see, it can't be a serious conversation.

I think you can make a case that Allen has had a better season than Mahommes so far, but, if we lose on Sunday, I don't think it matters much.

Digable5 said:
The problem is, my years of Buffalo fandom and "we don't get nice things" mindset, says:
  • The Bills won't get to the Super Bowl
  • The Chiefs will always find a way to beat us in the playoffs.
If we played the Chiefs last week without the Super Bowl on the line, I would be confident in our ability to finally overcome them in the playoffs. If we made it to the AFC Championship without having to face Kansas City, I would feel confident about our chances about getting to another Super Bowl. But, to accomplish both in one game? Its tough for my (lived through 4 Super Bowl losses and a playoff drought) to BILLIEVE both could be vanquished on Sunday. I have set my expectations very low. Very, very cautiously optimistic but doubtful (if both of those feelings can be had simultaneously).
Click to expand...

Your feelings are 100% valid. Until we go out there and BEAT Mahommes and the Chiefs, its not going to matter. They go to the conference finals every year. Realistically, there isn't a path for us winning a championship that doesn't involve us beating the chiefs eventually. Maybe one year there will have a fluky loss in the wild card round, but that hasn't happened.

While I personally think we will win on Sunday, it wouldn't be shocking if we lost. I think this is hope for the best and plan for the worse.

In the end, its a single game elimination. We can play perfect on sunday, and still lose on some dumb bounce at the end of the game. Conversely, we could play poorly and still get the win.

Baltimore played well enough to win last week and didn't because they made 2-3 crucial mistakes. We played well enough to win and didn't make those mistakes. NFL is probably the most heart breaking sport because 8 months of hype and work can go up in flames in 3 hours.

But....I think this falls under its better to have loved and lost and not loved at all. lets get our hopes up and get some of that hopium, even if it means we might get hurt again. Life is f***ing short.
 
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Waterfowlist said:
I think people are living in a fear bunker on KCs offense. All year they have won because of their defense. They have not scored more than 30 points all season.

If we lose, I suspect it will be because of spagnola shutting down the offense, not the KC offense steamrolling us.
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I think I’m just a lot more pessimistic about our defense than most. I don’t think they’ve put up any resistance against a decent offense all year, and I think KC’s offense is playing a lot better now than when we played them earlier.

I believe Allen can match them score for score though.
 
So I was thinking about this - since McDermott took over the Bills, how many franchises' results would you take over what the Bills have done? So I determined a scale for playoff results: 1 for making it, +2 for a WC win (or bye through that round), +3 for a DIV win, +4 for a CG win, +5 for a SB W. So the points end up like this:
1st round exit - 1 point
DIV round exit - 3 points
Conf Champ exit - 6 points
SB Loss - 10 points
SB win - 15 points

Under this scale, since McDermott took over in 2017, the Bills rank T-6th, behind KC, PHI, LAR, SF, and NE. We will pass NE with a win Sunday and tie San Francisco with a SB win. (would remain a single point behind LAR)

Since 2020, we are 5th on that scale, behind KC, TB, SF, and LAR. We will finish this playoffs somewhere between 3rd and 6th, as Philly will pass us if they progress further than us (or beat us in the SB) and we will pass Tampa and San Fran if we beat KC.

All of this to say - even if you buy into the narrative that the Bills have been underachieving in the playoffs, this is still an exceptional run using a metric that heavily relies on playoff results. Consistency wise, not only are KC and Buffalo the only teams to make the Divisional Round in each of the last 5 years, every other team has failed to do so TWICE over that span. Tampa Bay is the only other team to have even made the playoffs in each of the last 5 years, and they were 8-9 once and 9-8 once while doing it.

Enjoy the ride.

(Here's the google sheets link I used to calculate this: EDIT: Or apparently just the document. Neat.
 
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buffalowing88 said:
Man, I don't know. I like the size he has and the hands but for what he may be offered in free agency, I'd have liked to see him make a few more plays in the stretch run here.

Shakir and Coleman should be getting plenty of targets next year and I think Hollins is something resembling another red-zone threat. I'm not giving up on Kincaid yet, either.

For what Cooper may command on the market, is it worth it for that production? He's got a great attitude, I totally love the guy, I just don't know that he's a luxury we need.
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He’s worth re-signing if it’s not breaking the bank. Buffalo really needs a boundary receiver with speed, and Cooper really isn’t that guy anymore. But if he wanted back on a reasonable, short deal, why not? He can still give you games like the LA game.
 
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