Advanced Statistical Summation of the Bruins Vs. Eye Test

[Trap Jesus]

Here is a graphical representation of the Bruins this year, based on a number of different advanced statistics, essentially just trying to attach a value to a player's various contributions to the team above that of an average replacement-level player.

EVO = Even-Strength Offense
EVD = Even-Strength Defense
PPO = Powerplay Offense
DRAW = Drawing penalties
TAKE = Taking Penalties
FAC = Faceoffs

Here's a basic primer on the model: https://hockey-graphs.com/2016/10/24/a-primer-on-dtmabouthearts-war-model/#more-12307

What jumps out at you that you agree/disagree with based on your eye-test of the team?

Click to read more...

 

[Trap Jesus]

Vatrano being the 2nd best defensive player on the team doesn't make a lot of sense to me, and Spooner being one of the smallest contributers to offense makes less sense.

I think Bergeron being the catalyst for defense and Marchand being the catalyst for offense by such remarkable degrees over anyone else on the team adds up.

Jimmy Hayes and Matt Beleskey definitely checks out.

 

[bob27]

Riley Nash is a head scratcher, but aside from that seem to match eye test pretty well.

 

[LSCII]

Vatrano being the 2nd best defensive player on the team doesn't make a lot of sense to me, and Spooner being one of the smallest contributers to offense makes less sense.

I think Bergeron being the catalyst for defense and Marchand being the catalyst for offense by such remarkable degrees over anyone else on the team adds up.

Jimmy Hayes and Matt Beleskey definitely checks out.

And that's why advanced stats are only a small part of what should be considered when evaluating a player.

 

[wintersej]

Vatrano being the 2nd best defensive player on the team doesn't make a lot of sense to me, and Spooner being one of the smallest contributers to offense makes less sense.

I think Bergeron being the catalyst for defense and Marchand being the catalyst for offense by such remarkable degrees over anyone else on the team adds up.

Jimmy Hayes and Matt Beleskey definitely checks out.

To be fair, at 5 on 5 he isn't scoring any more points than Dominic Moore and PP is separate in this model.

I think advanced stats just haven't really figured out how to measure how difficult a players minutes are well, yet. Colin Miller always looks good on charts, but how much of that is the fact that you almost never ever see him on the ice against the other teams best players and he usually gets cushy offensive zone starts? They try to account for that, but its REALLY HARD.

 

[00BW]

My eye test agrees with Colin Miller's offense on this chart. The new coach letting him skate out of the zone is a nice change. His passing is off but I don't know if that is him or his teammates not knowing what to do or where to be when a dman can go back to retrieve the puck and skate it out of the zone. Krug has done it a couple times in recent games and those plays also stall unless he dumps it in. They will need to work that into practice next year with McAvoy joining them so every D pair will have someone that can do this.
To be fair, C Miller can get running around in his own zone so there is still a lot more work to be done there--and that is reflected in the numbers too. However I don't recall watching him make tape to tape passes to an opponent in the slot like K Miller and Chara both did in the last game. I can understand better, looking at a chart like this showing Offensive and Defensive 'Goals Above Replacement' numbers, how Erik Karlsson won the Norris. At some point, your offense can become so overwhelming that just above average defense is all you need to contribute.

Interesting to see this chart exposed Bergeron's one weakness, drawing penalties.

Surprising to see Krug's Goals Above Replacement is slight higher than Pastas. I would guess that must be a D vs O comparison.

 

[JOKER 192]

And that's why advanced stats are only a small part of what should be considered when evaluating a player.

Exactly , look what buying to much into advanced stats did for the Panthers. It convinced them to fire a coach who didn't care for them because he knew they don't help as much as some like to believe. Just another tool among the many and definitely a way over-rated one.

 

[Pia8988]

Exactly , look what buying to much into advanced stats did for the Panthers. It convinced them to fire a coach who didn't care for them because he knew they don't help as much as some like to believe. Just another tool among the many and definitely a way over-rated one.

And the Blackhawks are one of the top teams when it comes to analytics. Goes both ways.

In 2009, shortly after Stan Bowman was promoted to general manager of the Blackhawks, he was approached by an analytics company that presented a compelling case as to why he should place value in what they were saying. He bought in.

"We've sort of enhanced it and honed it," Bowman said. "We're much better at coming up with conclusions."

One of those conclusions has made the Blackhawks a leading puck-possession team. While Joel Quenneville is an old-school coach, the Blackhawks use analytics to find players who might be undervalued elsewhere but fit exactly what Quenneville and the Blackhawks try to do on the ice systematically. It's been a great combination, with Bowman and Quenneville teaming up to win two Stanley Cups.

"I don't claim to have the answers -- we have a formula that works for us," Bowman said. "We're always trying to expand and add a new component each year that we do a little more with."

The biggest issue is proprietary and public advanced stats. Most of the ones used by fans are basic and are open because they are not as highly valued. I would absolutely love to be able to look at what teams themselves use and setup for themselves.

 

[JOKER 192]

And the Blackhawks are one of the top teams when it comes to analytics. Goes both ways.

In 2009, shortly after Stan Bowman was promoted to general manager of the Blackhawks, he was approached by an analytics company that presented a compelling case as to why he should place value in what they were saying. He bought in.

"We've sort of enhanced it and honed it," Bowman said. "We're much better at coming up with conclusions."

One of those conclusions has made the Blackhawks a leading puck-possession team. While Joel Quenneville is an old-school coach, the Blackhawks use analytics to find players who might be undervalued elsewhere but fit exactly what Quenneville and the Blackhawks try to do on the ice systematically. It's been a great combination, with Bowman and Quenneville teaming up to win two Stanley Cups.

"I don't claim to have the answers -- we have a formula that works for us," Bowman said. "We're always trying to expand and add a new component each year that we do a little more with."

The biggest issue is proprietary and public advanced stats. Most of the ones used by fans are basic and are open because they are not as highly valued. I would absolutely love to be able to look at what teams themselves use and setup for themselves.

I call BS . The Hawks success can be attributed to Cap circumvention (case and point the contracts of Duncan Keith and Marian Hossa) so Bowman can BS all he wants but essentially that's what is. Analytics my ass.

Also getting a player like Panarin for free doesn't hurt. Don't think analytics came into play with him, do you?

 

[Pia8988]

I call BS . The Hawks success can be attributed to Cap circumvention (case and point the contracts of Duncan Keith and Marian Hossa) so Bowman can BS all he wants but essentially that's what is. Analytics my ass.

Also getting a player like Panarin for free doesn't hurt. Don't think analytics came into play with him, do you?

Yep, Bowman is full of ****. I bet when he talks with ownership about the budget they spend on this, he says it's all ********, but lets do it anyways.

 

[finchster]

The problem with the eye test is that people are emotional and sometimes see what they want to see. One needs to look no further than the shear amount of prospects that people were convinced to be stars that ended up pumping gas.

Analytics are tools in player evaluation and they measure small specific things; one advanced stat shouldn't be used to make the claim "This player is great!" or "This player is bad!". When used in context, they are useful tools in evaluation.

 

[Pia8988]

The problem with the eye test is that people are emotional and sometimes see what they want to see. One needs to look no further than the shear amount of prospects that people were convinced to be stars that ended up pumping gas.

Analytics are tools in player evaluation and they measure small specific things; one advanced stat shouldn't be used to make the claim "This player is great!" or "This player is bad!". When used in context, they are useful tools in evaluation.

Too many people on both sides want to herald their side and demean the other. Both have their uses.

 

[JOKER 192]

Yep, Bowman is full of ****. I bet when he talks with ownership about the budget they spend on this, he says it's all ********, but lets do it anyways.

How about you address the points I made instead of this ridiculous easy -out you've opted for.

 

[Pia8988]

How about you address the points I made instead of this ridiculous easy -out you've opted for.

I never said analytics were the only reason they won. It is possible for analytics to be used as a tool of many in making decisions. Bowman clearly uses them. You say he doesn't with your infinite wisdom. There really is no discussion to have.

Fact is the Chicago Blackhawks DO use analytics. They were one of the first and very much invested in them. He even specifically said they use them to help identify players who would fit into Q's system. Maybe they used them along with the eye test to think Panarin would be a huge boon for them?

Even with the Hossa and Keith contracts they've had to make numerous decisions on current players on who to keep and who to move on from. They most likely used analytics as a partial tool in those decisions.

 

[DKH]

And that's why advanced stats are only a small part of what should be considered when evaluating a player.

Yes - Lonnie always said when you are serious and not messing around you know your stuff as much as anyone

Analytics is a nice tool or slice to the pie but when people think it is the pie is the problem

What a joke Moneyball was

Watch that movie and count how much they mention- Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, and Barry Zito. That's why they won

The way that movie was done the only thing missing was Walter Matthau looking at a tablet and telling Scott Hatteberg this pitcher likes to throw 2-1 change ups in this spot

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

Yes - Lonnie always said when you are serious and not messing around you know your stuff as much as anyone

Analytics is a nice tool or slice to the pie but when people think it is the pie is the problem

What a joke Moneyball was

Watch that movie and count how much they mention- Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, and Barry Zito. That's why they won

The way that movie was done the only thing missing was Walter Matthau looking at a tablet and telling Scott Hatteberg this pitcher likes to throw 2-1 change ups in this spot

Not sure how this helps anything, though.

Is there really anything in these type of numbers that tell management anything they wouldn't know already?

 

[Trap Jesus]

Not sure how this helps anything, though.

Is there really anything in these type of numbers that tell management anything they wouldn't know already?

For their own team probably not, for other teams, yes. I think advanced stats are a good tool to get some insight into other teams you don't see as much, and are good for comparing different players/teams.

 

[JOKER 192]

I never said analytics were the only reason they won. It is possible for analytics to be used as a tool of many in making decisions. Bowman clearly uses them. You say he doesn't with your infinite wisdom. There really is no discussion to have.

Fact is the Chicago Blackhawks DO use analytics. They were one of the first and very much invested in them. He even specifically said they use them to help identify players who would fit into Q's system. Maybe they used them along with the eye test to think Panarin would be a huge boon for them?

Even with the Hossa and Keith contracts they've had to make numerous decisions on current players on who to keep and who to move on from. They most likely used analytics as a partial tool in those decisions.

I didn't say he doesn't use them I said it's not the main reason for the Hawks success. They get a free high level player with the advantage that comes through those contracts . It's like they have 4-5M more to spend than every other team. So analytics may help them but the key is the cap circumvention and a free top 10 player . Analytics had nothing to do with any of those things.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

For their own team probably not, for other teams, yes. I think advanced stats are a good tool to get some insight into other teams you don't see as much, and are good for comparing different players/teams.

Good point.

Once again, my limited thought process is exposed.

 

[DKH]

Not sure how this helps anything, though.

Is there really anything in these type of numbers that tell management anything they wouldn't know already?

Analytics is much more valuable in baseball but that movie forgot to not even mention let alone stress that pitching and talent is more important

I am well aware of VORP, FRR, WARP but that's fine for baseball but in hockey I find measurements statistics having a place but I would put 75% or more on viewing via tape or live

You can and should have the analytics as part of information but we are talking hockey here

 

[missingchicklet]

Too many people on both sides want to herald their side and demean the other. Both have their uses.

That's pretty much the way I see it as well. I've read as much as I can on advanced stats and find them to be very interesting. By the same token I can recognize how flawed they can be as well, especially concerning d-men and goalies. There are just too many unaccounted for variables at this point to put too much stock in them for d-men and goalies. Doesn't mean they aren't useful, but the eye test and normal stats also have to be a large factor in evaluating players of all positions. It's still very early in the game when it comes to advanced stats. At some point in the future when teams track more things than are tracked currently then advanced stats will be more valuable. If I were a GM I would be doing everything I could to bring in people who could help me develop increasingly better systems for tracking player stats. Every little edge is helpful.

 

[Dr Hook]

I didn't say he doesn't use them I said it's not the main reason for the Hawks success. They get a free high level player with the advantage that comes through those contracts . It's like they have 4-5M more to spend than every other team. So analytics may help them but the key is the cap circumvention and a free top 10 player . Analytics had nothing to do with any of those things.

This actually has nothing to do with the analytics, but how do get to a free high level player with those two contract? Keith might be somewhat underpaid at $6m (I realize cap hit is a bit under that), but do you pay him what Kane is getting? If so, then you get 2m more to spend, but Hossa's cap hit is 5.2m, salary is 4m. At 37 does he get much more than that than another team? I am curious how you get 4-5m extra to spend based on those contracts.

And I want to put out there that I am not taking a shot at you or trying to start an argument, but am genuinely curious how it plays out that those two deals are that big of a cap advantage for Chicago.

 

[JOKER 192]

This actually has nothing to do with the analytics, but how do get to a free high level player with those two contract? Keith might be somewhat underpaid at $6m (I realize cap hit is a bit under that), but do you pay him what Kane is getting? If so, then you get 2m more to spend, but Hossa's cap hit is 5.2m, salary is 4m. At 37 does he get much more than that than another team? I am curious how you get 4-5m extra to spend based on those contracts.

And I want to put out there that I am not taking a shot at you or trying to start an argument, but am genuinely curious how it plays out that those two deals are that big of a cap advantage for Chicago.

1st of all I don't take your post as a shot or an attempt to start an argument, I take it for genuine trying to understand what I'm getting at. Now that that is out of the way.

If you were to take the 1st 8 years of Hossa salary and work out the average you 6.55M which is roughly 1.4 more than what it stands at now. If you take the 1st 8 years of Keith's contract it works out to about 7.25 which is roughly 1.75 less than what it stands at now. That makes roughly 3.15M of cap circumvention. Add a 1M or so of your own and you got yourself a player.

Getting Panarin for free, and let's not understate that, a free top 10. That's what keeps the Hawks competitive. Do they use analytics? I'm sure they do. Is it the main reason for their success, I beg to differ.

It allows them to have a player like Hjalmarsson on their second pairing instaed of having to opt for someone like McQuaid or Miller like we have to do.

 

[wintersej]

1st of all I don't take your post as a shot or an attempt to start an argument, I take it for genuine trying to understand what I'm getting at. Now that that is out of the way.

If you were to take the 1st 8 years of Hossa salary and work out the average you 6.55M which is roughly 1.4 more than what it stands at now. If you take the 1st 8 years of Keith's contract it works out to about 7.25 which is roughly 1.75 less than what it stands at now. That makes roughly 3.15M of cap circumvention. Add a 1M or so of your own and you got yourself a player.

Getting Panarin for free, and let's not understate that, a free top 10. That's what keeps the Hawks competitive. Do they use analytics? I'm sure they do. Is it the main reason for their success, I beg to differ.

It allows them to have a player like Hjalmarsson on their second pairing instaed of having to opt for someone like McQuaid or Miller like we have to do.

I wouldn't argue that Florida is a great example against analytics either, though. They got hit hard with injuries and saw Bjugstad, Ekblad and Smith (surprise!) take big steps backwards. Every team uses analytics. Some use more than other. I doubt many use the public ones at all.

 

[JOKER 192]

I wouldn't argue that Florida is a great example against analytics either, though. They got hit hard with injuries and saw Bjugstad, Ekblad and Smith (surprise!) take big steps backwards. Every team uses analytics. Some use more than other. I doubt many use the public ones at all.

those are definitely factors. The reason I used the Panthers as an example is that they are very big on analytics and Gallant wasn't which is what lead to his firing. While the factors you mention come into play they were factors that were present when Gallant was there. The Panthers fell off the map after his dismissal.