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Player Discussion Adam Fox

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Amazing Kreiderman said:
In a year where we were contending it makes no sense to trade a roster player for futures. In 2018, 2019, sure. But in 2014 it would have been the wrong move.

I feel the price for St Louis was steep, but the Rangers going for it is not something I feel bad about. The 2nd round pick we got in the Callahan trade was later used in the Yandle trade. It was clear the Rangers were ready to compete and go for it. A Cup final appearance, a President's Trophy and ECF appearance in the span of 12 months proves that they made the right call.

Coming up short doesn't make it a bad trade, just like winning the Cup in 1994 didn't make the deadline trades that season good trades.
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Agree with most of this — except Sather paid way too much for St. Louis. Said it then and still believe it now.
 
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Brooklyn Rangers Fan said:
Agree with most of this — except Sather paid way too much for St. Louis. Said it then and still believe it now.
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Maybe, but the Callahan portion of the trade was arguably the biggest win for the Rangers long term.

Could you imagine if they had extended him? It would have been another disaster contract on top of Girardi and Staal.
 
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MSL was supposed to be a big scorer, because he wasn't much of anything else. But all he did was score a whopping 82 points in 137 games for us. That is only 49 point pace over 82 games.

He scored a whopping 15 points in 25 playoff games that season. Callahan would have scored probably about 10 if he remained on the team. So we essentially gave up a 1st rounder + 2nd rounder for 5 more points in a 25 game playoff run and lost the physical and PK presence of Callahan.
 
Kakko Schmakko said:
MSL was supposed to be a big scorer, because he wasn't much of anything else. But all he did was score a whopping 82 points in 137 games for us. That is only 49 point pace over 82 games.

He scored a whopping 15 points in 25 playoff games that season. Callahan would have scored probably about 10 if he remained on the team. So we essentially gave up a 1st rounder + 2nd rounder for 5 more points in a 25 game playoff run and lost the physical and PK presence of Callahan.
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With the power of hindsight, everyone is a HOF general manager.

Martin St Louis was a year removed from winning the Art Ross, and was a P/GP with Tampa the year we traded for him. Nothing indicated his production would dip that quickly.
 
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Kakko Schmakko said:
MSL was supposed to be a big scorer, because he wasn't much of anything else. But all he did was score a whopping 82 points in 137 games for us. That is only 49 point pace over 82 games.

He scored a whopping 15 points in 25 playoff games that season. Callahan would have scored probably about 10 if he remained on the team. So we essentially gave up a 1st rounder + 2nd rounder for 5 more points in a 25 game playoff run and lost the physical and PK presence of Callahan.
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#WeNeverGetAPostWithoutHyperbole
 
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Yeah I wouldn't say our trades have been bad, at least we had all the right intentions even if some didn't work out well. The issues were the deals Staal and Girardi got.
 
Leetch3 said:
so is he going to tell us the few things that make fox unique?
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His answer was fox made the nhl after he stopped tracking him, and the model assumed something was wrong with him not in the nhl after d+2.
its a bad answer, and it’ll get exposed by other players who don’t leave school early, or players who leave school early but then don’t thrive after one good year.
 
slater417 said:
His answer was fox made the nhl after he stopped tracking him, and the model assumed something was wrong with him not in the nhl after d+2.
its a bad answer, and it’ll get exposed by other players who don’t leave school early, or players who leave school early but then don’t thrive after one good year.
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pretty dumb reason. first off tons of, if not the majority, of players don't play in the NHL till d+2. second fox didn't want to sign with the flames and then carolina, so its not simply a case of not being good enough. Fox had 40 points in 35 games as a freshman. if we had drafted him, he might have turned pro after that year who knows.
 
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aufheben said:
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The statistician in me loved that thread. Not only does it give a glimpse of how their model works, but it highlights the inherent flaws of any such model and a reminder not to trust predictions blindly.

For those wondering about the thread, he is not talking about what makes Adam Fox the hockey player unique, but rather what makes Fox's route to NHL unique in the sense that due to lack of data(*) and similar situations his model was unable to predict Fox's success. Out of the 6000 players in their data, nobody had a similar route to Fox... pretty interesting if ultimately useless knowledge.

(*) his model lacked the context of Fox's actions and lumped him in with the spare toys
 
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AntNYR said:
The statistician in me loved that thread. Not only does it give a glimpse of how their model works, but it highlights the inherent flaws of any such model and a reminder not to trust predictions blindly.

For those wondering about the thread, he is not talking about what makes Adam Fox the hockey player unique, but rather what makes Fox's route to NHL unique in the sense that due to lack of data(*) and similar situations his model was unable to predict Fox's success. Out of the 6000 players in their data, nobody had a similar route to Fox... pretty interesting if ultimately useless knowledge.

(*) his model lacked the context of Fox's actions and lumped him in with the spare toys
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That's a computational output. It's interesting but I've built more useful ones. What they are doing is trying to apply financial analysis to hockey, and it just doesn't work across the board. It's not a true hockey analysis if it doesn't understand the game. There are certain predictions that are safer bets than others, but I think there is a real lack of sophistication if you don't apply the context of the game itself versus not. I'm getting to a point where I can tell which teams have aces and which ones don't. It's pretty funny :).

There's something you can do to really jack up the corsi numbers. Three teams in the league do it and I'm 99% certain they all have one thing in common. There was one team that was confounded about something and to me it's obvious, but if you look at the publicly accepted take on analytics, it will tell you the diametric opposite.

Team level analytics are something else. Pierre was on Chiclets asking for an equation, and I already built it. The player he mentioned right after saying that is number 1 on my list. Most feared in the game. Bar none. Why does a grown man sporting the finest swag jackets cry on national TV about re-signing a player like Gallagher? He's a true top line player. Shows up in the guy you win with category.
 
Not sure what you mean by "context of the game" that's fairly vague especially when talking about this particular instance.

Fox is unique in his particular model because he is a true top talent and was from his first D+1 season, but basically all of those guys turn pro immediately whereas Fox is the only one who didn't. So, he was just a weird outlier because of his decisions to stay in college instead of turning pro. There's context there but ultimately I'm not sure that's something you can work into a model that doesn't involve some kind of "manual" editing.
That said I'm no statistician, maybe his model is just pretty dumb since it seems to ignore Fox's crazy good college career after he didn't turn pro quickly. Everyone is trying to come up with their own formula that makes them unique. If you've got one that is amazingly better then you should start selling that shit to make yourself a lot of money
 
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Levitate said:
Not sure what you mean by "context of the game" that's fairly vague especially when talking about this particular instance.

Fox is unique in his particular model because he is a true top talent and was from his first D+1 season, but basically all of those guys turn pro immediately whereas Fox is the only one who didn't. So, he was just a weird outlier because of his decisions to stay in college instead of turning pro. There's context there but ultimately I'm not sure that's something you can work into a model that doesn't involve some kind of "manual" editing.
That said I'm no statistician, maybe his model is just pretty dumb since it seems to ignore Fox's crazy good college career after he didn't turn pro quickly. Everyone is trying to come up with their own formula that makes them unique. If you've got one that is amazingly better then you should start selling that shit to make yourself a lot of money
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Who says I don't? - It's what you can do with it that matters.

And models are static, there are more advanced outputs than just opening a file and looking at rank. Hockey context is about player utilization, makes a huge difference in winning and losing.
 
I'll throw another one out there. A team- perhaps out west, or in the east- has one measure that they use. You can call it effort. I know the guy whose dead last. If he's not scoring that night, you're on the losing end when he's out there.
 
Though crowd. :laugh:

It's just a Tweet FFS.
Leetch3 said:
so is he going to tell us the few things that make fox unique?
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It's not a scouting report. We've seen Fox play a full season in the NHL, we already know what makes him unique. I essentially only use Twitter to follow hockey nerds, and when they make a fuss about a Ranger, I usually share it here. :dunno:
 
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Adam, if you're reading this thread, chin up. Don't let doubters bring you down.
 
Dom Luszczyszyn’s 2021 player predictions up on The Athletic.

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