Active Leafs creeping up into franchise's all-time top-50?

[seventieslord]

Nearly five years ago, about halfway through the rookie seasons of Marner, Matthews and Nylander, I contributed to a THN special edition that was released that Autumn: The Top 50 Players of All-Time By Franchise.

The list that was the nearest and dearest to me was the Leafs list, of course. I spent so long helping them fine-tune those rankings. In the end it was a REALLY tough list to crack. After all, the Arenas/St. Pats/Leafs had been around for 100 years, and had plenty of success, though none significant in the past 50.

Let's presume that the list is definitive - it's not, reasonable people can disagree - but let's presume it is for the purposes of this exercise. I'm wondering which Leafs have made their way into this top-50 and how high they've gotten. Here's the list and some candidates:

1. Syl Apps
2. Charlie Conacher
3. Tim Horton
4. Ted Kennedy
5. Dave Keon
6. Borje Salming
7. King Clancy
8. Turk Broda
9. Busher Jackson
10. Mats Sundin
11. Darry Sittler
12. George Armstrong
13. Frank Mahovlich
14. Johnny Bower
15. Allan Stanley
16. Joe Primeau
17. Babe Dye
18. Bob Pulford
19. Doug Gilmour
20. Gordie Drillon
21. Carl Brewer
22. Jimmy Thomson
23. Norm Ullman
24. Hap Day
25. Red Kelly
26. Harry Lumley
27. Phil Kessel
28. Harry Watson
29. Bob Baun
30. Red Horner
31. Ron Ellis
32. Rick Vaive
33. Sid Smith
34. Ace Bailey
35. Tomas Kaberle
36. Curtis Joseph
37. Bryan McCabe
38. Babe Pratt
39. Lanny McDonald
40. Wendel Clark
41. Max Bentley
42. Tod Sloan
43. Reg Noble
44. Gus Mortson
45. Dick Duff
46. Wally Stanowski
47. Ian Turnbull
48. Felix Potvin
49. Dmitry Yushkevich
50. Paul Henderson

So, here are the players who put in significant time since then, or added to a resume that was already significant as of 2017:

FORWARDS:
Auston Matthews
Mitch Marner
William Nylander
Tyler Bozak
Nazem Kadri
James Van Riemsdyk

DEFENSEMEN:
Morgan Rielly
Jake Gardiner

GOALTENDERS:
Fredrik Andersen

Let's start with the goalie - Freddie Andersen. This one is relatively straightforward because the bar to clear is another modern goalie at #48 - Felix Potvin. If he can't pass him, then he can't make the list.

Potvin, until the time he was traded, was 7th in sv% in the NHL among the 32 goalies with at least 200+ GP. Andersen was 16th out of 36 goalies with at least 150 GP in the last 5 seasons. Both finished 4th in Vezina voting once. In the playoffs, Potvin won 4 rounds, ended up with a 25-27 record and 12.5 GSAA. Andersen was 10-14 with -0.3 GSAA.

Conclusion:

This is no contest. Potvin did more for this franchise; Andersen didn't stick around long enough to compile his way past him.

OK, so as for the defensemen, we all agree that Rielly has been significantly better than Gardiner, right? So if Rielly can make it, maybe Jake can, too. But if he can't, then neither can Jake. So let's start with Rielly.

There are a couple of defensemen worth comparing him to right at the bottom - both of whom are very offensively-oriented: Wally Stanowski and Ian Turnbull. Stanowski played in the 40s so I'll stick to Turnbull at this time. At this time, Turnbull and Rielly have been Leafs for 8 full seasons, at almost the exact same ages: 20-27 for Turnbull, and 19-26 for Rielly.

Both are known for their offense. Turnbull was a huge point producer but was also known as a real risk-taker, and his points never translated into a single vote for the Norris or the postseason all-stars. Rielly has played passable defense for a new-age #1 defenseman but is far from the elites (analytics seem to agree). He did earn significant votes three seasons ago (5th in Norris and AS) but, it seems to be mostly from an unsustainably high shooting percentage. The seasons surrounding it have shown that he's just not that caliber of player.

During his 8 seasons, Rielly is the 19th highest-scoring defenseman in the NHL (32nd per-game). Turnbull was 5th in his 8 seasons (13th per-game). It seems clear that Turnbull has been the more significant offensive producer, in both the regular season and playoffs (he helped the Leafs through 55 playoff games, scoring 45 points - Reilly has 19 in 32). And I don't know that either has made any significant needle-moving defensive contributions in an all-time sense.

So it should be easily in favour of Turnbull, right? Not so fast. Rielly has a couple of key factors in his favour: 1) he has been the Leafs best defenseman, a clear #1 in terms of TOI and overall value for three consecutive seasons. Turnbull never was, not with Salming on the roster. 2) Turnbull was almost always paired with Borje Salming. This inflated his point totals, and I believe it also inflated his TOI totals - he could not have handled the minutes he did (an estimated 24-25) if his partner wasn't an all-time great. It's great to score 412 points and be +30 over 8 seasons, but is it that great if your partner has 497 points and is +182 in the same period? Kinda makes it look like he was along for the ride, to some extent. On the other hand, if Salming was not there, Turnbull probably would have been the Leafs' #1 defenseman and probably would have scored a lot of points - just not as many. The Leafs would have been considerably less successful, and his playoff career would look a lot closer to Rielly's 19-in-32 than his actual 45-in-55.

I think for the most part they are similar and equal talents in an all-time sense. It's nearly a draw. We could speculate that if Rielly had a partner like Drew Doughty stapled to him the last 8 years, his results might have been as good as Turnbull's. But he didn't. So in that case, you need to go with the one who actually did it, over the what-if. That said, it's close enough that Rielly could pass Turnbull with a strong 9th season before leaving as a UFA.

This means Jake Gardiner has no hope.

I'll do the forwards later.

Click to read more...

 

[seventieslord]

James Van Riemsdyk. Can he make it? At first glance it seems ridiculous, but six very solid offensive seasons as a Leaf puts him in relatively rare company.

Over the course of his six seasons, JVR was 50th in the NHL in points. He did nothing else to move the needle - he was a "power forward" who didn't impose his will on anyone, played bad defense, and frustrated the fans with inconsistent efforts all the time. He did manage to give the team some decent playoff performances, with 14 points in 20 games.

Henderson was 3oth in the NHL in points during his six seasons as a Leaf. He was decent with 12 points in 19 games in the playoffs, which looks bad until you see how the rest of the team was over that period.

All in all, being 30th just following expansion is about the same as being 50th in the modern era. It really comes down to intangibles. JVR had none. Henderson was at least a pretty decent defensive forward. It's close but JVR doesn't have what it takes to crack 50th.

 

[seventieslord]

Kadri is next. He had a solid 7 consecutive seasons as a Leaf. He was the 50th highest-scoring player in the NHL over that time. This is a slight advantage over JVR because it was maintained over a longer period. He also has an intangibles edge over JVR. He started off as a one-dimensional hotshot, but developed into a really gritty, heart-and-soul center who could be matched up against top centers. He was no selke candidate or legendary warrior, but he had hints of that kind of game, at least.

But then, there's the playoffs. Where JVR did his job decently in the playoffs, Kadri's legacy as a leaf is always going to be two stupid suspensions that fans will always speculate cost them two series. And he had just 10 points in 19 games, too. Not only does his playoff resume not add to his case, it subtracts from it. Solely on the basis of his poor playoff legacy, I can't say he helped this franchise any more than JVR did, and JVR just missed the cut.

Conclusion: No to Kadri.

 

[seventieslord]

Tyler Bozak: He gave the Leafs parts of 9 solid seasons as a good foot-soldier. Can we honestly say he was a more significant piece in the team's history than 6 seasons of JVR or 7 seasons of Kadri? Just because he played longer than them? I'm thinking no. He just wasn't the caliber of player they were.

No to Bozak.

 

[seventieslord]

William Nylander: now this is where it gets interesting.

He's a very good player, but there are a lot of very good players in the NHL. Since joining the Leafs full-time, he's 68th in the NHL in points and has not done anything significant in the playoffs or areas outside of offense. He's still trending up. By the end of his contract he will be a 10-year Leaf veteran and will have a good basis on which to challenge the likes of Dick Duff, Tod Sloan, and maybe even Lanny McDonald.

No to Nylander.

 

[seventieslord]

Matthews and Marner have both obviously made this list - they have some of the finest regular season peaks ever put up by Leafs forwards, but their lack of a playoff legacy drags them down. I'll explore these two later and see just how far up they've already risen.

 

[Jeypic]

Nearly five years ago, about halfway through the rookie seasons of Marner, Matthews and Nylander, I contributed to a THN special edition that was released that Autumn: The Top 50 Players of All-Time By Franchise.

The list that was the nearest and dearest to me was the Leafs list, of course. I spent so long helping them fine-tune those rankings. In the end it was a REALLY tough list to crack. After all, the Arenas/St. Pats/Leafs had been around for 100 years, and had plenty of success, though none significant in the past 50.

Let's presume that the list is definitive - it's not, reasonable people can disagree - but let's presume it is for the purposes of this exercise. I'm wondering which Leafs have made their way into this top-50 and how high they've gotten. Here's the list and some candidates:

1. Syl Apps
2. Charlie Conacher
3. Tim Horton
4. Ted Kennedy
5. Dave Keon
6. Borje Salming
7. King Clancy
8. Turk Broda
9. Busher Jackson
10. Mats Sundin
11. Darry Sittler
12. George Armstrong
13. Frank Mahovlich
14. Johnny Bower
15. Allan Stanley
16. Joe Primeau
17. Babe Dye
18. Bob Pulford
19. Doug Gilmour
20. Gordie Drillon
21. Carl Brewer
22. Jimmy Thomson
23. Norm Ullman
24. Hap Day
25. Red Kelly
26. Harry Lumley
27. Phil Kessel
28. Harry Watson
29. Bob Baun
30. Red Horner
31. Ron Ellis
32. Rick Vaive
33. Sid Smith
34. Ace Bailey
35. Tomas Kaberle
36. Curtis Joseph
37. Bryan McCabe
38. Babe Pratt
39. Lanny McDonald
40. Wendel Clark
41. Max Bentley
42. Tod Sloan
43. Reg Noble
44. Gus Mortson
45. Dick Duff
46. Wally Stanowski
47. Ian Turnbull
48. Felix Potvin
49. Dmitry Yushkevich
50. Paul Henderson

So, here are the players who put in significant time since then, or added to a resume that was already significant as of 2017:

FORWARDS:
Auston Matthews
Mitch Marner
William Nylander
Tyler Bozak
Nazem Kadri
James Van Riemsdyk

DEFENSEMEN:
Morgan Rielly
Jake Gardiner

GOALTENDERS:
Fredrik Andersen

Let's start with the goalie - Freddie Andersen. This one is relatively straightforward because the bar to clear is another modern goalie at #48 - Felix Potvin. If he can't pass him, then he can't make the list.

Potvin, until the time he was traded, was 7th in sv% in the NHL among the 32 goalies with at least 200+ GP. Andersen was 16th out of 36 goalies with at least 150 GP in the last 5 seasons. Both finished 4th in Vezina voting once. In the playoffs, Potvin won 4 rounds, ended up with a 25-27 record and 12.5 GSAA. Andersen was 10-14 with -0.3 GSAA.

Conclusion:

This is no contest. Potvin did more for this franchise; Andersen didn't stick around long enough to compile his way past him.

OK, so as for the defensemen, we all agree that Rielly has been significantly better than Gardiner, right? So if Rielly can make it, maybe Jake can, too. But if he can't, then neither can Jake. So let's start with Rielly.

There are a couple of defensemen worth comparing him to right at the bottom - both of whom are very offensively-oriented: Wally Stanowski and Ian Turnbull. Stanowski played in the 40s so I'll stick to Turnbull at this time. At this time, Turnbull and Rielly have been Leafs for 8 full seasons, at almost the exact same ages: 20-27 for Turnbull, and 19-26 for Rielly.

Both are known for their offense. Turnbull was a huge point producer but was also known as a real risk-taker, and his points never translated into a single vote for the Norris or the postseason all-stars. Rielly has played passable defense for a new-age #1 defenseman but is far from the elites (analytics seem to agree). He did earn significant votes three seasons ago (5th in Norris and AS) but, it seems to be mostly from an unsustainably high shooting percentage. The seasons surrounding it have shown that he's just not that caliber of player.

During his 8 seasons, Rielly is the 19th highest-scoring defenseman in the NHL (32nd per-game). Turnbull was 5th in his 8 seasons (13th per-game). It seems clear that Turnbull has been the more significant offensive producer, in both the regular season and playoffs (he helped the Leafs through 55 playoff games, scoring 45 points - Reilly has 19 in 32). And I don't know that either has made any significant needle-moving defensive contributions in an all-time sense.

So it should be easily in favour of Turnbull, right? Not so fast. Rielly has a couple of key factors in his favour: 1) he has been the Leafs best defenseman, a clear #1 in terms of TOI and overall value for three consecutive seasons. Turnbull never was, not with Salming on the roster. 2) Turnbull was almost always paired with Borje Salming. This inflated his point totals, and I believe it also inflated his TOI totals - he could not have handled the minutes he did (an estimated 24-25) if his partner wasn't an all-time great. It's great to score 412 points and be +30 over 8 seasons, but is it that great if your partner has 497 points and is +182 in the same period? Kinda makes it look like he was along for the ride, to some extent. On the other hand, if Salming was not there, Turnbull probably would have been the Leafs' #1 defenseman and probably would have scored a lot of points - just not as many. The Leafs would have been considerably less successful, and his playoff career would look a lot closer to Rielly's 19-in-32 than his actual 45-in-55.

I think for the most part they are similar and equal talents in an all-time sense. It's nearly a draw. We could speculate that if Rielly had a partner like Drew Doughty stapled to him the last 8 years, his results might have been as good as Turnbull's. But he didn't. So in that case, you need to go with the one who actually did it, over the what-if. That said, it's close enough that Rielly could pass Turnbull with a strong 9th season before leaving as a UFA.

This means Jake Gardiner has no hope.

I'll do the forwards later.

I don’t know the defenseman you’re comparing Rielly to, but I was around for Kaberle and Mccabe, who are ranked higher then Turnbull. I think Rielly’s done enough to be on this list if McCabe is ranked 37.

More regular season points, and a better ppg in the playoffs. Actually very similar stats between the two…. McCabe also had Kaberle. He was tougher then Reilly though

 

[seventieslord]

I don’t know the defenseman you’re comparing Rielly to, but I was around for Kaberle and Mccabe, who are ranked higher then Turnbull. I think Rielly’s done enough to be on this list if McCabe is ranked 37.

More regular season points, and a better ppg in the playoffs. Actually very similar stats between the two…. McCabe also had Kaberle. He was tougher then Reilly though

Yeah, I don't know about that. We're talking about two completely different classes of player in terms of where they ranked in the pecking order, both on the team and in the league, and how they were used.

I realize it's an unfair comparison because McCabe came to the Leafs a seasoned veteran at 25, and gave them the best 7 years of his career. And Rielly's 8-year career currently only includes three prime seasons and the rest developmental/improvement time.

But:

- McCabe was 9th and 4th in Norris voting as a Leaf, and was a midseason injury away from a potential second 2nd all-star team nomination in 2005-06
- McCabe was ranked 14th, 11th, 17th, 11th and 15th by THN in their preseason defense rankings during his time as a Leaf. Rielly was ranked 8th, following his unsustainable peak offensive season, but that's it. He might rank this season (rankings haven't come out yet), but that's not a guarantee.
- McCabe played an incredible 25:30 per game in his regular season career as a Leaf - on average. Rielly hasn't even had a single season where the Leafs used him that heavily. His career high is 24:12 and his average is just 21:51; again, mainly because he played his developmental years here. McCabe's TOI profile is that of a heavily used all-situations #1 defenseman, Rielly's, if averaged over his career, is that of a standard #2. McCabe was actually the 5th most heavily-used defenseman in the NHL as a Leaf, and Rielly is just 54th in the past 8 years.
- You see a guy with a "lower playoff ppg", I see a guy who became even more important when the chips were down and the going got tough. McCabe played a remarkable 27:51 per game in the playoffs during his time as a Leaf. Yes, overtimes inflate that number, but just to illustrate, he played 0:30 more than the next-highest (Kaberle) in the regular season, but 2:40 more than him per game in the playoffs. During that time, among D-men with over 50 GP, only Pronger and Lidstrom were more heavily used per game. McCabe played nearly twice as many Leaf playoff games as Rielly, winning four playoff rounds as their most important defenseman.
- The leafs changed a lot during those 8 years but generally speaking, they were not a weak team and they didn't have a poor defense corps. It wasn't just a case of there being no one else to play. He had big names to compete with for ice time during his tenure here, including Yushkevich, Svehla, Kaberle and Kubina. It's not a murderer's row but all of them were past or future #1 defensemen. Rielly's top competition for minutes came from Phaneuf (a default #1 during Rielly's formative years), Gardiner and Zaitsev.
- To illustrate this further, McCabe averaged that 25:30 on a team that was, over that entire time (after averaging out some good years and some bad), the 9th-best in the NHL. Rielly's Leafs are just the 20th-best team of the last 8 seasons (again, averaging out some good and some bad) - and he's only been important enough to get into 21:51 a game for that team in that time.
- Speaking of offense, you may think it looks like Rielly has outperformed McCabe on the surface, but times were different. McCabe was the 11th-highest scoring defenseman in the NHL over his 7 seasons as a leaf. Rielly is just 19th.

So, for now, comparing Rielly to McCabe is nothing short of unfair. Turnbull is a much closer comparison but IMO he's not quite there, either.

 

[zeke]

Yeah my gut reaction is that I take Rielly over both Kaberle and McCabe but I realize I'll have to back that up with some evidence.

 

[studebaker17]

Yeah, I don't know about that. We're talking about two completely different classes of player in terms of where they ranked in the pecking order, both on the team and in the league, and how they were used.

I realize it's an unfair comparison because McCabe came to the Leafs a seasoned veteran at 25, and gave them the best 7 years of his career. And Rielly's 8-year career currently only includes three prime seasons and the rest developmental/improvement time.

But:

- McCabe was 9th and 4th in Norris voting as a Leaf, and was a midseason injury away from a potential second 2nd all-star team nomination in 2005-06
- McCabe was ranked 14th, 11th, 17th, 11th and 15th by THN in their preseason defense rankings during his time as a Leaf. Rielly was ranked 8th, following his unsustainable peak offensive season, but that's it. He might rank this season (rankings haven't come out yet), but that's not a guarantee.
- McCabe played an incredible 25:30 per game in his regular season career as a Leaf - on average. Rielly hasn't even had a single season where the Leafs used him that heavily. His career high is 24:12 and his average is just 21:51; again, mainly because he played his developmental years here. McCabe's TOI profile is that of a heavily used all-situations #1 defenseman, Rielly's, if averaged over his career, is that of a standard #2. He was actually the 5th most heavily-used defenseman in the NHL as a Leaf, and Rielly is just 54th in the past 8 years.
- You see a guy with a "lower playoff ppg", I see a guy who became even more important when the chips were down and the going got tough. McCabe played a remarkable 27:51 per game in the playoffs during his time as a Leaf. Yes, overtimes inflate that number, but just to illustrate, he played 0:30 more than the next-highest (Kaberle) in the regular season, but 2:40 more than him per game in the playoffs. During that time, among D-men with over 50 GP, only Pronger and Lidstrom were more heavily used per game. McCabe played nearly twice as many Leaf playoff games as Rielly, winning four playoff rounds as their most important defenseman.
- The leafs changed a lot during those 8 years but generally speaking, they were not a weak team and they didn't have a poor defense corps. It wasn't just a case of there being no one else to play. He had big names to compete with over his time there, including Yushkevich, Svehla, Kaberle and Kubina. It's not a murderer's row but all of them were past or future #1 defensemen. Rielly's top competition for minutes came from Phaneuf (a default #1 during Rielly's formative years), Gardiner and Zaitsev.
- To illustrate this further, McCabe averaged that 25:30 on a team that was, over that entire time (after averaging out some good years and some bad), the 9th-best in the NHL. Rielly's Leafs are just the 20th-best team of the last 8 seasons (again, averaging out some good and some bad) - and he's only been important enough to get into 21:51 a game for that team in that time.
- Speaking of offense, you may think it looks like Rielly has outperformed McCabe on the surface, but times were different. McCabe was the 11th-highest scoring defenseman in the NHL over his 7 seasons as a leaf. Rielly is just 19th.

So, for now, comparing Rielly to McCabe is nothing short of unfair. Turnbull is a much closer comparison but IMO he's not quite there, either.

I agree with all this . Should also mention McCabes career was played in the dead puck era with the fewest average goals scored per game of any era. To me Rielly is more comparable to Kaberle than McCabe .

 

[seventieslord]

Matthews and Marner:

OK, for starters, we all generally agree that wherever they end up, Matthews should be a little ahead of Marner, right?

They've both played 5 full seasons. Marner is 12th in the NHL in scoring over a 5-year period including his rookie year, which is pretty amazing. He's 17th in points per game. Matthews, due to some games missed, is 14th and 12th. Not only that, (and not to downplay how elite a playmaking winger Marner really is), but included in Matthews point totals are borderline generational goal numbers.

Matthews has been 1st, 2nd, 3rd in the league in goals, and 5th, 9th & 20th in points.
Marner has been 4th, 4th, 9th in assists, and 4th, 11th, 18th in points.

With 5 full seasons as excellent to elite producers, my first thought is to compare them to Dougie Gilmour (#19), who also played pretty much 5 calendar years as a Leaf.

During Gilmour's time as a Leaf he was 12th in the NHL in points, and 23rd in points per game. He finished 2nd, 2nd and 6th in assists, and 4th, 7th and 17th in points. Interestingly, he's a center like Matthews but has a statistical profile more like Marner's.

Gilmour of course had a couple of really gaudy point totals in 93 and 94, but times were different. I don't know that these were any better peak offensive seasons than Matthews and Marner have already posted. Given the points per game rank difference between him and the two youngsters (23rd vs. 12th & 17th), I think it would be reasonable to say they have a superior regular season offensive resume than he does at this point.

But "regular season offense" is pretty much the one and only way to compare Matthews and Marner favourably to Gilmour at this point. Gilmour, of course, was an elite defensive player, winning a Selke as a Leaf and finishing 2nd another time. He also scored a remarkable 77 playoff points in 52 games as bar-none, the Leafs' MVP through four playoff series wins. Matthews and Marner couldn't close the deal against a weak Habs team, never mind the repeated losses to Boston.

For that reason, I definitely prefer Gilmour's legacy to the youngsters. If they only had some playoff success by now, they'd already be ahead. In a couple more years, even without any playoff success, they will be, simply by compiling so many consecutive elite seasons. Phil Kessel, after all, made it to 27th doing pretty much what they did - being elite offensively and taking the team nowhere. (Kessel, as it happens, was 16th in points and 21st in points per game during his six-season Leafs tenure).

Kessel at 27th should be seen as the floor for them. They've both met or exceeded his offensive exploits and they've done so for a team that has been infinitely more successful (simply by repeatedly making the playoffs). They're both already better all-around players than he was, as well.

Up the list from there, we have Norm Ullman at 23rd. Now, Ullman was an excellent two-way player, but can't match these guys offensively. Over the course of his 6 seasons, he was 13th in the post-expansion NHL in points while being 32nd in Points per game. He was, at that point in his career (age 32-39), simply not the caliber of player they are, defense or not. And it's not like he or the Leafs did anything in the playoffs those years. So I'm comfortable with them over Ullman.

Finally we come to perhaps the most apt comparison of all - Gordie Drillon. Drillon was an offense-only winger who played six full seasons as a leaf. It was during a bit of a lull in high-end historical talent at forward, but it should be noted that it was before WW2 had depleted the NHL. During his time with the leafs, Drillon was 3rd in the NHL in both points and points per game. This is watered down slightly by the fact that the player in 1st in both categories was his usual linemate, Syl Apps. Drillon finished 1st, 4th, 4th, 5th and 7th in goals as a leaf, and 1st, 3rd, 4th and 8th in points. Comparing points finishes raw across eras with vastly different league sizes is not fair, though - using VsX, a measure of how close he was to the top scorer in the league, Drillon had a score of 87 over 6 seasons. Marner and Matthews are a 78 and 77, respectively, over 5 seasons - so they haven't yet matched Drillon's offensive exploits.

Drillon was also excellent in the playoffs, for the most part. He had 35 points in 45 playoff games - playoffs were just two rounds long, and yet he played in significantly more of them than these two have. He led the 1938 and 1939 playoffs in goals, and played in four finals, winning one cup. During his time as a Leaf, he was by far the league's highest playoff goal scorer and 2nd highest playoff point producer, behind only Syl Apps. I could not put Matthews and Marner ahead of Drillon, yet.

So, they belong between Drillon (#20) and Ullman (#23). there are two defensemen between them - Brewer gave the Leafs 7 full seasons with three postseason all-star teams. Thomson, more years of service (11 seasons), lower peak (2 all-star teams). If Matthews and marner were traded today and we were historians looking back at the team 100 years from now, who would we think was more significant? Tough to say. Just to put some separation between the two, I'd slot Matthews in after Brewer, and Marner after Thomson.

This effectively knocks Yushkevich and Henderson out of the top-50 leafs of all-time, with Rielly and Nylander likely to knock Turnbull and Potvin out in the coming seasons. If Tavares plays his whole 7-year deal with the leafs and declines as gradually as expected into his 30s, he'll be a top-50 Leaf, too. Should pass Kessel on the basis of regular season offense, provided he takes them somewhere in the postseason.

 

[Jeypic]

Great thread. It’d be interesting to revisit this yearly and see how our current players climb the ranks. Your evaluations seem pretty fair all things considered.

 

[zeke]

Matthews and Marner:

OK, for starters, we all generally agree that wherever they end up, Matthews should be a little ahead of Marner, right?

They've both played 5 full seasons. Marner is 12th in the NHL in scoring over a 5-year period including his rookie year, which is pretty amazing. He's 17th in points per game. Matthews, due to some games missed, is 14th and 12th. Not only that, (and not to downplay how elite a playmaking winger Marner really is), but included in Matthews point totals are borderline generational goal numbers.

Matthews has been 1st, 2nd, 3rd in the league in goals, and 5th, 9th & 20th in points.
Marner has been 4th, 4th, 9th in assists, and 4th, 11th, 18th in points.

With 5 full seasons as excellent to elite producers, my first thought is to compare them to Dougie Gilmour (#19), who also played pretty much 5 calendar years as a Leaf.

During Gilmour's time as a Leaf he was 12th in the NHL in points, and 23rd in points per game. He finished 2nd, 2nd and 6th in assists, and 4th, 7th and 17th in points. Interestingly, he's a center like Matthews but has a statistical profile more like Marner's.

Gilmour of course had a couple of really gaudy point totals in 93 and 94, but times were different. I don't know that these were any better peak offensive seasons than Matthews and Marner have already posted. Given the points per game rank difference between him and the two youngsters (23rd vs. 12th & 17th), I think it would be reasonable to say they have a superior regular season offensive resume than he does at this point.

But "regular season offense" is pretty much the one and only way to compare Matthews and Marner favourably to Gilmour at this point. Gilmour, of course, was an elite defensive player, winning a Selke as a Leaf and finishing 2nd another time. He also scored a remarkable 77 playoff points in 52 games as bar-none, the Leafs' MVP through four playoff series wins. Matthews and Marner couldn't close the deal against a weak Habs team, never mind the repeated losses to Boston.

For that reason, I definitely prefer Gilmour's legacy to the youngsters. If they only had some playoff success by now, they'd already be ahead. In a couple more years, even without any playoff success, they will be, simply by compiling so many consecutive elite seasons. Phil Kessel, after all, made it to 27th doing pretty much what they did - being elite offensively and taking the team nowhere. (Kessel, as it happens, was 16th in points and 21st in points per game during his six-season Leafs tenure).

Kessel at 27th should be seen as the floor for them. They've both met or exceeded his offensive exploits and they've done so for a team that has been infinitely more successful (simply by repeatedly making the playoffs). They're both already better all-around players than he was, as well.

Up the list from there, we have Norm Ullman at 23rd. Now, Ullman was an excellent two-way player, but can't match these guys offensively. Over the course of his 6 seasons, he was 13th in the post-expansion NHL in points while being 32nd in Points per game. He was, at that point in his career (age 32-39), simply not the caliber of player they are, defense or not. And it's not like he or the Leafs did anything in the playoffs those years. So I'm comfortable with them over Ullman.

Finally we come to perhaps the most apt comparison of all - Gordie Drillon. Drillon was an offense-only winger who played six full seasons as a leaf. It was during a bit of a lull in high-end historical talent at forward, but it should be noted that it was before WW2 had depleted the NHL. During his time with the leafs, Drillon was 3rd in the NHL in both points and points per game. This is watered down slightly by the fact that the player in 1st in both categories was his usual linemate, Syl Apps. Drillon finished 1st, 4th, 4th, 5th and 7th in goals as a leaf, and 1st, 3rd, 4th and 8th in points. Comparing points finishes raw across eras with vastly different league sizes is not fair, though - using VsX, a measure of how close he was to the top scorer in the league, Drillon had a score of 87 over 6 seasons. Marner and Matthews are a 78 and 77, respectively, over 5 seasons - so they haven't yet matched Drillon's offensive exploits.

Drillon was also excellent in the playoffs, for the most part. He had 35 points in 45 playoff games - playoffs were just two rounds long, and yet he played in significantly more of them than these two have. He led the 1938 and 1939 playoffs in goals, and played in four finals, winning one cup. During his time as a Leaf, he was by far the highest playoff goal scorer and 2nd highest playoff point producer, behind only Syl Apps. I could not put Matthews and Marner ahead of Drillon, yet.

So, they belong between Drillon (#20) and Ullman (#23). there are two defensemen between them - Brewer gave the Leafs 7 full seasons with three postseason all-star teams. Thomson, more years of service (11 seasons), lower peak (2 all-star teams). If Matthews and marner were traded today and we were historians looking back at the team 100 years from now, who would we think was more significant? Tough to say. Just to put some separation between the two, I'd slot Matthews in after Brewer, and Marner after Thomson.

This effectively knocks Yushkevich and Henderson out of the top-50 leafs of all-time, with Rielly and Nylander likely to knock Turnbull and Potvin out in the coming seasons. If Tavares plays his whole 7-year deal with the leafs and declines as gradually as expected into his 30s, he'll be a top-50 Leaf, too. Should pass Kessel on the basis of regular season offense, provided he takes them somewhere in the postseason.

Eh Matthews is already 14th in leafs goals scored and will be likely 9th by the end of the year. He's already got a rocket Richard. Of leafs with 200gms played he's 3rd in PPG and 2nd in GPG.

He's easily top 20 in my books.

 

[seventieslord]

Eh Matthews is already 14th in leafs goals scored and will be likely 9th by the end of the year. He's already got a rocket Richard. Of leafs with 200gms played he's 3rd in PPG and 2nd in GPG.

He's easily top 20 in my books.

That's, like, an extremely superficial case compared to what I just put together. For starters, the modern 82 game schedule allows more recent players to add to their career totals. It's not Drillon's fault that the seasons were just 40 games long. And the league scoring environment matters greatly as well. Drillon was, compared to Matthews at this point, a more dominant and significant player to his era, both in the regular season and the playoffs. That's surely about to change, but it hasn't yet.

(Drillon has a "Rocket Richard" too, ya know...)

 

[zeke]

That's, like, an extremely superficial case compared to what I just put together. For starters, the modern 82 game schedule allows more recent players to add to their career totals. It's not Drillon's fault that the seasons were just 40 games long. And the league scoring environment matters greatly as well. Drillon was, compared to Matthews at this point, a more dominant and significant player to his era, both in the regular season and the playoffs. That's surely about to change, but it hasn't yet.

(Drillon has a "Rocket Richard" too, ya know...)

Sure, but as you said - Drillon was a) a winger, b) the 2nd best player on his line by a healthy margin.

Moreover, finishing 1st in goals and top 5 in points in a 6 team league is not nearly as impressive as in a 31 team league.

 

[seventieslord]

Sure, but as you said - Drillon was a) a winger, b) the 2nd best player on his line by a healthy margin.

Moreover, finishing 1st in goals and top 5 in points in a 6 team league is not nearly as impressive as in a 31 team league.

No, it's not, but finishing top-7 five times is more impressive. He averaged 87% of the point total of the league's #2 scorer over six years - Matthews has averaged 77% over just five years. I'll make allowances for modern players who did close to what an older player did, but at this time that's not close.

Granted, Drillon was the 2nd best player on his line. But Matthews also has more help than a typical superstar forward. He's the best player on his line, but not by a 'healthy' margin. His linemate is nearly his equal.

And let's not make him something he's not. He hasn't shown to be some generationally dominant offensive weapon. He's 14th in points and 12th in points per game the past 5 years.

And then there's the playoffs....

 

[zeke]

Sure, but as you said - Drillon was a) a winger, b) the 2nd best player on his line by a healthy margin.

Moreover, finishing 1st in goals and top 5 in points in a 6 team league is not nearly as impressive as in a 31 team league.

Or put it another way.

Since Matthews entered the league, over 5 seasons, he is #1 in the league in goals per game - 5% better than the next best goalscorer (ovy) and 22.5% better than the next best center (mcD).

12th in PPG but 6th in even strength PPG.

No leaf has ever been that dominant I don't think.

 

[seventieslord]

Or put it another way.

Since Matthews entered the league, over 5 seasons, he is #1 in the league in goals per game - 5% better than the next best goalscorer (ovy) and 22.5% better than the next best center (mcD).

No leaf has ever been that dominant I don't think.

That's taking an entire offensive picture and distilling it to only goals for some reason, and then focusing only on per-game for his benefit. I mean great, he has good regular season goals per game over a five-season period. You think Drillon doesn't?

NHL Stats

During his time as a Leaf he scored 14% more goals than anyone else in the NHL.

Also - Babe Dye and Charlie Conacher were even more dominant goal scorers. This isn't some unprecedented territory here.

NHL Stats

NHL Stats

 

[zeke]

That's taking an entire offensive picture and distilling it to only goals for some reason, and then focusing only on per-game for his benefit. I mean great, he has good regular season goals per game over a five-season period. You think Drillon doesn't?

NHL Stats

During his time as a Leaf he scored 14% more goals than anyone else in the NHL.

Also - Babe Dye and Charlie Conacher were even more dominant goal scorers. This isn't some unprecedented territory here.

NHL Stats

NHL Stats

Hmm I thought you wanted discussion?

Anyways - Roy Conacher had Drillon beat in goals per game over that time frame, and again, none of them were centers.

Maybe to get a sense of how impressive this is we can note that of all players in NHL history to play 200gms, only 2 centers have a higher GPG than Matthews does.

Their names are Mario and Wayne.

 

[tmlms13]

Reilly is a lock to be a Top 50 leaf. Assuming AM, MM, WN all play out their contract in Toronto they will be locks.

Bozak - meh no
Kadri - meh
Gardiner - no
Andersen - no
JVR - he was #100 in 2016, and had 65 goals and 116 points since. To move up 50 spots... nah

 

[diceman934]

Nearly five years ago, about halfway through the rookie seasons of Marner, Matthews and Nylander, I contributed to a THN special edition that was released that Autumn: The Top 50 Players of All-Time By Franchise.

The list that was the nearest and dearest to me was the Leafs list, of course. I spent so long helping them fine-tune those rankings. In the end it was a REALLY tough list to crack. After all, the Arenas/St. Pats/Leafs had been around for 100 years, and had plenty of success, though none significant in the past 50.

Let's presume that the list is definitive - it's not, reasonable people can disagree - but let's presume it is for the purposes of this exercise. I'm wondering which Leafs have made their way into this top-50 and how high they've gotten. Here's the list and some candidates:

1. Syl Apps
2. Charlie Conacher
3. Tim Horton
4. Ted Kennedy
5. Dave Keon
6. Borje Salming
7. King Clancy
8. Turk Broda
9. Busher Jackson
10. Mats Sundin
11. Darry Sittler
12. George Armstrong
13. Frank Mahovlich
14. Johnny Bower
15. Allan Stanley
16. Joe Primeau
17. Babe Dye
18. Bob Pulford
19. Doug Gilmour
20. Gordie Drillon
21. Carl Brewer
22. Jimmy Thomson
23. Norm Ullman
24. Hap Day
25. Red Kelly
26. Harry Lumley
27. Phil Kessel
28. Harry Watson
29. Bob Baun
30. Red Horner
31. Ron Ellis
32. Rick Vaive
33. Sid Smith
34. Ace Bailey
35. Tomas Kaberle
36. Curtis Joseph
37. Bryan McCabe
38. Babe Pratt
39. Lanny McDonald
40. Wendel Clark
41. Max Bentley
42. Tod Sloan
43. Reg Noble
44. Gus Mortson
45. Dick Duff
46. Wally Stanowski
47. Ian Turnbull
48. Felix Potvin
49. Dmitry Yushkevich
50. Paul Henderson

So, here are the players who put in significant time since then, or added to a resume that was already significant as of 2017:

FORWARDS:
Auston Matthews
Mitch Marner
William Nylander
Tyler Bozak
Nazem Kadri
James Van Riemsdyk

DEFENSEMEN:
Morgan Rielly
Jake Gardiner

GOALTENDERS:
Fredrik Andersen

Let's start with the goalie - Freddie Andersen. This one is relatively straightforward because the bar to clear is another modern goalie at #48 - Felix Potvin. If he can't pass him, then he can't make the list.

Potvin, until the time he was traded, was 7th in sv% in the NHL among the 32 goalies with at least 200+ GP. Andersen was 16th out of 36 goalies with at least 150 GP in the last 5 seasons. Both finished 4th in Vezina voting once. In the playoffs, Potvin won 4 rounds, ended up with a 25-27 record and 12.5 GSAA. Andersen was 10-14 with -0.3 GSAA.

Conclusion:

This is no contest. Potvin did more for this franchise; Andersen didn't stick around long enough to compile his way past him.

OK, so as for the defensemen, we all agree that Rielly has been significantly better than Gardiner, right? So if Rielly can make it, maybe Jake can, too. But if he can't, then neither can Jake. So let's start with Rielly.

There are a couple of defensemen worth comparing him to right at the bottom - both of whom are very offensively-oriented: Wally Stanowski and Ian Turnbull. Stanowski played in the 40s so I'll stick to Turnbull at this time. At this time, Turnbull and Rielly have been Leafs for 8 full seasons, at almost the exact same ages: 20-27 for Turnbull, and 19-26 for Rielly.

Both are known for their offense. Turnbull was a huge point producer but was also known as a real risk-taker, and his points never translated into a single vote for the Norris or the postseason all-stars. Rielly has played passable defense for a new-age #1 defenseman but is far from the elites (analytics seem to agree). He did earn significant votes three seasons ago (5th in Norris and AS) but, it seems to be mostly from an unsustainably high shooting percentage. The seasons surrounding it have shown that he's just not that caliber of player.

During his 8 seasons, Rielly is the 19th highest-scoring defenseman in the NHL (32nd per-game). Turnbull was 5th in his 8 seasons (13th per-game). It seems clear that Turnbull has been the more significant offensive producer, in both the regular season and playoffs (he helped the Leafs through 55 playoff games, scoring 45 points - Reilly has 19 in 32). And I don't know that either has made any significant needle-moving defensive contributions in an all-time sense.

So it should be easily in favour of Turnbull, right? Not so fast. Rielly has a couple of key factors in his favour: 1) he has been the Leafs best defenseman, a clear #1 in terms of TOI and overall value for three consecutive seasons. Turnbull never was, not with Salming on the roster. 2) Turnbull was almost always paired with Borje Salming. This inflated his point totals, and I believe it also inflated his TOI totals - he could not have handled the minutes he did (an estimated 24-25) if his partner wasn't an all-time great. It's great to score 412 points and be +30 over 8 seasons, but is it that great if your partner has 497 points and is +182 in the same period? Kinda makes it look like he was along for the ride, to some extent. On the other hand, if Salming was not there, Turnbull probably would have been the Leafs' #1 defenseman and probably would have scored a lot of points - just not as many. The Leafs would have been considerably less successful, and his playoff career would look a lot closer to Rielly's 19-in-32 than his actual 45-in-55.

I think for the most part they are similar and equal talents in an all-time sense. It's nearly a draw. We could speculate that if Rielly had a partner like Drew Doughty stapled to him the last 8 years, his results might have been as good as Turnbull's. But he didn't. So in that case, you need to go with the one who actually did it, over the what-if. That said, it's close enough that Rielly could pass Turnbull with a strong 9th season before leaving as a UFA.

This means Jake Gardiner has no hope.

I'll do the forwards later.

Rielly is easily better.

 

[seventieslord]

Hmm I thought you wanted discussion?

Anyways - Roy Conacher had Drillon beat in goals per game over that time frame, and again, none of them were centers.

Who really cares if any of them were centers? Is a center a better player just because he's a center?

This is the kind of analysis where you really have to squint to believe it. Conacher had a higher GPG average over those six years, sure, but he only played 4 of those 6 years, and his assist totals were so weak that Drillon still had a higher PPG than him.

Maybe to get a sense of how impressive this is we can note that of all players in NHL history to play 200gms, only 2 centers have a higher GPG than Matthews does.

Their names are Mario and Wayne.

Again, so. focused. on. goals. Why? Goals aren't everything. The point of hockey is to win games any way possible, and him scoring the goals himself is just one of a few key ways he can help.

Centers are also supposed to distribute the puck and create chances for their wingers. Where does Matthews rank all-time in assists per game by centers? You have to look pretty far down the list I'm sure. But hey, I don't care, as long as the puck goes from his stick into the net somehow, it's all good. That's why points are a better indicator of offensive production than goals by themselves. And as already established, Matthews is a good, even great, point producer, and still improving, surely on track for a HHOF career, but he hasn't proven he's some special generational producer that only has to play a few seasons to be one of the top Leafs of all-time. He still has to put the time in and pile up more strong seasons. The Leafs have been around 100 years, and for the first half of that period, won a lot of cups because they often had a lot of the league's best players - the top-50 all-time is a tough list to crack, and the top-20 is even tougher. He'll surely be there by the end of this contract but per-game averages don't win you anything.

Reilly is a lock to be a Top 50 leaf. Assuming AM, MM, WN all play out their contract in Toronto they will be locks.

Bozak - meh no
Kadri - meh
Gardiner - no
Andersen - no
JVR - he was #100 in 2016, and had 65 goals and 116 points since. To move up 50 spots... nah

Yep pretty much my thoughts. Rielly might be in by the end of this season (really depends what kind of season he has) but if he re-signs then he'll be a lock. Also, you forgot JT. Seven years of play at a reasonably high level will get him to at least the Kessel zone.

Rielly is easily better.

Quinn, Maurice, Carlyle, Babcock, Keefe..... idiots, all of 'em. Their job is to win hockey games, and to play McCabe over 4 minutes a game more than they played Rielly, is obviously stupid. How else can we explain the 2001-2008 leafs being so terrible (and going nowhere in the playoffs) and the 2014-2021 Leafs were so awesome and going on multiple deep runs???

(contributing significantly more to a significantly better team is a good thing)

 

[tmlms13]

Yep pretty much my thoughts. Rielly might be in by the end of this season (really depends what kind of season he has) but if he re-signs then he'll be a lock. Also, you forgot JT. Seven years of play at a reasonably high level will get him to at least the Kessel zone.

I just have this sinking feeling every year that he is going to go full Patrick Marleau in years 5,6,7

 

[Johnny Engine]

Quinn, Maurice, Carlyle, Babcock, Keefe..... idiots, all of 'em. Their job is to win hockey games, and to play McCabe over 4 minutes a game more than they played Rielly, is obviously stupid. How else can we explain the 2001-2008 leafs being so terrible (and going nowhere in the playoffs) and the 2014-2021 Leafs were so awesome and going on multiple deep runs???

(contributing significantly more to a significantly better team is a good thing)

Not disagreeing with you here really, but it's worth noting that coaches as a whole have cut the top end off of what they're willing the play a top defenseman in recent years. As in, the baseline for a run-of-the-mill #1 is still around 24 minutes, but 28 minute guys don't exist now.
Since Rielly took over as the Leafs #1 in 2018*, only a handful have even cracked 26 minutes over a season, compared to a few dozen over McCabes 2003-07 peak with the Leafs. So even if Rielly was the league's most heavily used workhorse today, he'd still likely be 2 minutes behind McCabe. It's also worth noting that McCabe and Kaberle have the #1 and #3 TOI seasons in that period, which is in their favour for sure, but also says something about that awesome supporting cast of Klee, Berg, and 3 lucky winners from 93.7 The Hammer's Rock The Ice contest they had in 2006.

*Rielly was easily the Leafs' most popular and respected defenseman in the immediate post-Phaneuf era, and did have the highest overall TOI, but he'd slip behind Gardiner and Zaitsev in usage for periods of time, and Gardiner was their even strength leader over that stretch (he may have even played more than Rielly overall if he could kill a penalty to save his life).

 

[zeke]

Who really cares if any of them were centers? Is a center a better player just because he's a center?

Absolutely. And obviously.

Maybe to get a sense of how impressive this is we can note that of all players in NHL history to play 200gms, only 2 centers have a higher GPG than Matthews does.

Their names are Mario and Wayne.

Again, so. focused. on. goals. Why? Goals aren't everything. The point of hockey is to win games any way possible, and him scoring the goals himself is just one of a few key ways he can help.

They aren't everything, but they are a very very important thing.

Also, I pointed out his impressive points production rate as well.

But again - only Mario and Wayne.