Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXXIV -- The Doggiest Days (Woof!) 2017

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SpinningEdge

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Feb 12, 2015
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I'm actually more excited about this season than the last two...I felt like through the regular season we were just going through the motions to get to the playoffs. Don't get me wrong I enjoyed us winning a lot of games but at the same time the regular season didn't feel real to me anymore. They were all like exhibition games. I just didn't care. As awesome as the team was they were probably some of the least exciting seasons of my life as a Caps fan. I'm looking forward to getting back to feeling like the regular season matters again and hopefully battling through some adversity.

I almost feel the opposite. It's going to be really hard for me to care about much until next April again. This team with Ovi/Backstrom/Carlson/Holtby/etc only care about one thing at this point - the playoff demons. Until that top core isn't around my mind isn't going to change much. It's still the Ovi/Backstroms Caps IMO
 

CapitalsCupReality

It’s Go Time!!
Feb 27, 2002
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You know how many dimes I would have for every person in this thread that said luck was the only impact on the games? Exactly ZERO DIMES!!!:laugh: seriously why does the anti - "we're screwed by bad luck" side keep repeating that nonsense? Nobody has said luck was the only impact.

This goes both ways, boyo.

Luck is certainly a factor, and it's a pretty large one, IMO, when it pertains to some of the Caps playoff failures...especially against the Pens. But it's not the only one. I think it's been worse for the last 2 years vs the Pens than at other times. I also do not dismiss that the Caps have failed in game 7's for reasons other than luck. It's true, the seem to choke on that stage. BUT, if they had even a smidgen of puck luck beforehand, they wouldn't have needed to be in game 7.

We all see what we want to see.

Again stating things that haven't been said. "Major" and "only" are not the same.

When you guys get the basics of the debate correct, come back and respond.
 

g00n

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Nov 22, 2007
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Luck plays no part = unrealistic
Luck is everything = unrealistic
Luck plays a major part = unlikely
Luck plays some part = reasonable


The last two are where this discussion should remain focused but the terms are muddy. The divergence probably comes from the fact that when you say luck is a major element in winning a Cup-- and then go to great lengths to describe hockey as a lucky game with lucky Cup winners-- it may appear you're saying the difference between winning and losing the Cup is simply luck. For practical purposes that's almost the same as saying luck is everything, even if you're only using the words "major" or "huge role/factor" or "heavily influenced" etc. Any player or coach or tactic who is similarly described in those terms will be considered the deciding factor in a Cup run and probably awarded the Conn Smythe.

So an argument that's "unlikely" then appears completely unrealistic.

Is it possible that for 10 or 40 years the Capitals have been on the losing side of countless coin flips, despite the odds? And the Penguins, along with other teams, have simply been the benefactors of odds-defying luck time and again? It's not impossible, but it's not likely (the published "probabilities" for each team are not facts, they are statistical novelties). There are much more realistic explanations that involve the players, coaches, and tactics; which is why blaming luck after so many years, coaches, systems, slogans, etc seems ridiculous.
 

CapitalsCupReality

It’s Go Time!!
Feb 27, 2002
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I think it's easier for some fans to cope with all the losing by saying it's the "Cosmos" or "we're unlucky". Might as well blame the magic 8-ball instead of looking at the real issues, players, coaches, tactics, etc...
 

RandyHolt

Keep truckin'
Nov 3, 2006
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League Favoritism.

I still cannot believe Wards OT goal vs Boston was not overturned. Can you imagine our psyche now had it been and we lost?

I feel like Knuble in TTs face was more egregious than his ass in Halak's while being backed into by the orge Gill.

I think officiating has as much say in critical games as luck. You gotta work the refs.
 

Ridley Simon

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Luck plays no part = unrealistic
Luck is everything = unrealistic
Luck plays a major part = unlikely
Luck plays some part = reasonable


The last two are where this discussion should remain focused but the terms are muddy. The divergence probably comes from the fact that when you say luck is a major element in winning a Cup-- and then go to great lengths to describe hockey as a lucky game with lucky Cup winners-- it may appear you're saying the difference between winning and losing the Cup is simply luck. For practical purposes that's almost the same as saying luck is everything, even if you're only using the words "major" or "huge role/factor" or "heavily influenced" etc. Any player or coach or tactic who is similarly described in those terms will be considered the deciding factor in a Cup run and probably awarded the Conn Smythe.

So an argument that's "unlikely" then appears completely unrealistic.

Is it possible that for 10 or 40 years the Capitals have been on the losing side of countless coin flips, despite the odds? And the Penguins, along with other teams, have simply been the benefactors of odds-defying luck time and again? It's not impossible, but it's not likely (the published "probabilities" for each team are not facts, they are statistical novelties). There are much more realistic explanations that involve the players, coaches, and tactics; which is why blaming luck after so many years, coaches, systems, slogans, etc seems ridiculous.

If you go into the season knowing that a few teams can win it (let's say 10 of 30, each season....up or down a couple in any given year), then yes, luck plays a large factor, IMO, in which of those 10 teams wins it. Both during the season (injuries) and into the playoffs (injuries and puck luck). It's a significant factor. That's my view.

The Pens have 2 players that are really head and shoulders above most. That is huge, so all things being equal, they are a leg up on most. Then you have confidence, which is why teams repeat. Much of confidence comes from having that "feeling" that things will work out for you. That's not just sports, that's life.

The Caps don't have that feeling. They never have. A lot of it is borne from luck. And then it perpetuates. Again, this is my opinion. Amd again, it's more than sports. It's life.
 

g00n

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Nov 22, 2007
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If you go into the season knowing that a few teams can win it (let's say 10 of 30, each season....up or down a couple in any given year), then yes, luck plays a large factor, IMO, in which of those 10 teams wins it. Both during the season (injuries) and into the playoffs (injuries and puck luck). It's a significant factor. That's my view.

The Pens have 2 players that are really head and shoulders above most. That is huge, so all things being equal, they are a leg up on most. Then you have confidence, which is why teams repeat. Much of confidence comes from having that "feeling" that things will work out for you. That's not just sports, that's life.

The Caps don't have that feeling. They never have. A lot of it is borne from luck. And then it perpetuates. Again, this is my opinion. Amd again, it's more than sports. It's life.

But you're not talking about sheer randomness. You're talking about mental states and beliefs that affect performance, based on perceptions of "luck". That is 100% within the control of the athlete.
 

Hivemind

We're Touched
Oct 8, 2010
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Interesting how some of the same faces who complain about officiating on a nightly basis during the season are now downplaying the impact of officiating on outcome of games.
 

g00n

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Nov 22, 2007
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Interesting how some of the same faces who complain about officiating on a nightly basis during the season are now downplaying the impact of officiating on outcome of games.

Who is doing that? I think every reasonable person understands bad calls happen and can have a negative effect, especially when there's very little time left in a game to recover. But to blame years of playoff failures on a few bad calls is myopic.

Once again, every team gets good and bad calls/bounces. Champions move past those things and work on controlling what they can control. Teams who always seem to come up short every year will often let such obstacles determine their fate in some way even when there's plenty of time and opportunity to overcome them.

We remember certain bad calls or bounces because they stand out to US. They happen at important times in our minds. But during a game or series there are numerous other bad calls or bounces (or good ones in our favor) that don't receive the same attention. We can remember a disallowed goal in the 3rd period of a game but forget the half dozen lucky breaks we got before, the bad calls against the other team, or the softies the opposing goaltender let in. So we convince ourselves we would've won but not for that one event that stands out the most. It's confirmation bias, plain and simple.

Bad luck happens but you do not gameplan or build a franchise around luck.
 

CapitalsCupReality

It’s Go Time!!
Feb 27, 2002
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I forgot that you are the only poster in this thread debating the topic. My bad, how silly of me. It's your thread, we only live in it. :sarcasm:

It's clear you're not keeping up with the thread brother, because nobody has said luck has no impact, but on the flip side, some are arguing it's a significant (if not MAJOR/BIG) piece of the puzzle in explaining the Caps not winning. Anyway....time to move on.
 

Ridley Simon

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But you're not talking about sheer randomness. You're talking about mental states and beliefs that affect performance, based on perceptions of "luck". That is 100% within the control of the athlete.

Negative. I am talking about all of it. There is a lot of control (especially in game 7's), BUT, I also think there is a lot of luck.

Obviously more than most of you do. Of the 4 major sports, hockey is by far the most beheld to luck. By far.
 

g00n

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Nov 22, 2007
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Negative. I am talking about all of it. There is a lot of control (especially in game 7's), BUT, I also think there is a lot of luck.

Obviously more than most of you do. Of the 4 major sports, hockey is by far the most beheld to luck. By far.

A comparison is just a comparison. Even if hockey has more luck than other sports it doesn't mean it's as big a factor as some are suggesting.

I mean, I think I'm reading the Caps have been one of the worst playoff franchises in any sport because of luck. And to me that's just not realistic or reasonable. Especially coming from people who insist on objective, quantifiable "evidence" when attempting to explain what happens on the ice.
 

Ovechkins Wodka

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Dec 1, 2007
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Negative. I am talking about all of it. There is a lot of control (especially in game 7's), BUT, I also think there is a lot of luck.

Obviously more than most of you do. Of the 4 major sports, hockey is by far the most beheld to luck. By far.

Baseball can be pretty lucky. One bad play can flip a game as well
 

Dr John Carlson

Registered User
Dec 21, 2011
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We need less intangibles and more luck. Start drafting players with the highest luck stat GMBM

They need to make up a complete draft list, and then scratch off half the names on it at random. If you're lucky, then your name isn't scratched off. Easy way to avoid unlucky players.

Actually, getting drafted by this organization may mean you're unlucky no matter what. Such is life.
 

CapitalsCupReality

It’s Go Time!!
Feb 27, 2002
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They need to make up a complete draft list, and then scratch off half the names on it at random. If you're lucky, then your name isn't scratched off. Easy way to avoid unlucky players.

Actually, getting drafted by this organization may mean you're unlucky no matter what. Such is life.

Pre-draft interview checklist just added 50 rolls of 6-sided dice to identify player luck aura level. ;)
 

Revelation

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Aug 15, 2016
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But you're not talking about sheer randomness. You're talking about mental states and beliefs that affect performance, based on perceptions of "luck". That is 100% within the control of the athlete.

It's not in control any more than it's in any rookie's 100% control to step into the NHL 3 months after their draft day and play with the poise and savvy of a 35 year old vet. It's technically possible, but not for any athlete at any time. Most players were on teams that caught lightning in a bottle to break through the hump the first time around and that shapes their mental states going forward. Like this year every Winnik level player in Nashville became John Druce and Rinne the sieve became Patrick Roy through the first 3 rounds.. That's not something any team (or even Nashville any other year) can conjure up.
 
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g00n

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Nov 22, 2007
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It's not in control any more than it's in any rookie's 100% control to step into the NHL 3 months after their draft day and play with the poise and savvy of a 35 year old vet. It's technically possible, but not for any athlete at any time. Most players were on teams that caught lightning in a bottle to break through the hump the first time around and that shapes their mental states going forward. Like this year every Winnik level player in Nashville became John Druce and Rinne the sieve became Patrick Roy through the first 3 rounds.. That's not something any team (or even Nashville any other year) can conjure up.

Nonsense. Top level athletes can learn this very early on. That they don't is their own fault.

What you describe is situational, performance based, or conditional confidence and it's exactly the kind of reactive state that sports psychologists try to move beyond when coaching clients. Sometimes it aids players but it's not a reliable source of confidence. Professional athletes must also have unconditional, personal confidence as well as confidence in their teammates and coaches. If they do not then they're at the mercy of circumstances, and their fortunes will ebb and flow depending on luck, momentum, and mood.

That's exactly what the Capitals have done over the years. They've mistaken overconfidence, arrogance, and carelessness for the real confidence that produces and energized or calm zone/swagger state that's ideal for performance. Just believing you can/should/will win is not enough. There's more to it.

Teams that catch "lighting in a bottle" have found that "it" we talked about before. It usually comes from some source of inspiration or a training program that pushes them past previous roadblocks and prevents mental hurdles from having a negative impact. And I can guarantee you there's at least a few people in every one of those locker rooms who helped keep it going, or at least kept everyone else believing that it would. That's true whether they were focusing on luck, destiny, their work ethic, "good is the enemy of great", or whatever brought them together so tightly.

Usually teams like this have a dynamic where they don't want to let their teammates down, but they aren't fearful about it to the point of paralysis or choking. They do not overpass and hope someone else will win the game, which happens when you're afraid of making a critical mistake. They make the right plays at the right times because they're locked in to the job that needs to be done. Bad luck doesn't crush them, and good luck doesn't cause them to relax.

In pressure situations people will often unconsciously screw up because the discomfort and tension are difficult to bear. If the pain of the situation is greater than the pain of failure then they will default to failure to relieve that discomfort. People will do more to avoid pain than seek pleasure, so even if you think you want to win a Cup you will sabotage your own efforts if somewhere in your mind failure is OK and you do not find ways to cope with the pressure of a game 7. And you will have a very hard time doing that if they opposition is taking control of their mental game while you are simply waiting to see what happens before you feel good about it.

Then inevitably, when the other guy is making a hard push at the end, if somewhere in the back of your mind is "oh no, not this again", then you may as well just put the puck in your own net.

Just because rookies or even vets haven't learned this yet doesn't mean it isn't there for them to learn and draw upon. You have two choices as a professional athlete: either allow your mind and therefore your performance to wax or wane depending on circumstances, or take charge of your own mental capabilities and do the things that give you the best chance to succeed.

From a personal career-based perspective, waiting to land on a team that finds "it" and gets the benefit of luck and momentum all the way to the Cup is a very passive, unreliable option.
 

Ridley Simon

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A comparison is just a comparison. Even if hockey has more luck than other sports it doesn't mean it's as big a factor as some are suggesting.

I mean, I think I'm reading the Caps have been one of the worst playoff franchises in any sport because of luck. And to me that's just not realistic or reasonable. Especially coming from people who insist on objective, quantifiable "evidence" when attempting to explain what happens on the ice.


I know you are discussing this with a few posters....but you quoted me here, so....

Where did I say it was just "because of luck"? I have stated that I think luck has a lot to do with it, especially and specifically these last 2 years vs Pittsburgh. And I will also say that the Caps have had a lot puck luck go against them, then for them..... in 40 years.

And as have stated, the 2 years they did get puck luck, were the 2 years that were the farthest they've trekked towards Lord Stanley.

It's been 2 years for, and about 7-8 years against. Let's not make this some larger point than it is. All I'm saying is that luck has been a major part of their failures. And it's been mostly against them, especially against the Pens. A good 3-4 of those "against luck" were played vs them.

There are still 30 some odd years where luck had nothing to do with it, and they just weren't good enough to advance.
 

Ridley Simon

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Nonsense. Top level athletes can learn this very early on. That they don't is their own fault.

What you describe is situational, performance based, or conditional confidence and it's exactly the kind of reactive state that sports psychologists try to move beyond when coaching clients. Sometimes it aids players but it's not a reliable source of confidence. Professional athletes must also have unconditional, personal confidence as well as confidence in their teammates and coaches. If they do not then they're at the mercy of circumstances, and their fortunes will ebb and flow depending on luck, momentum, and mood.

That's exactly what the Capitals have done over the years. They've mistaken overconfidence, arrogance, and carelessness for the real confidence that produces and energized or calm zone/swagger state that's ideal for performance. Just believing you can/should/will win is not enough. There's more to it.

Teams that catch "lighting in a bottle" have found that "it" we talked about before. It usually comes from some source of inspiration or a training program that pushes them past previous roadblocks and prevents mental hurdles from having a negative impact. And I can guarantee you there's at least a few people in every one of those locker rooms who helped keep it going, or at least kept everyone else believing that it would. That's true whether they were focusing on luck, destiny, their work ethic, "good is the enemy of great", or whatever brought them together so tightly.

Usually teams like this have a dynamic where they don't want to let their teammates down, but they aren't fearful about it to the point of paralysis or choking. They do not overpass and hope someone else will win the game, which happens when you're afraid of making a critical mistake. They make the right plays at the right times because they're locked in to the job that needs to be done. Bad luck doesn't crush them, and good luck doesn't cause them to relax.

In pressure situations people will often unconsciously screw up because the discomfort and tension are difficult to bear. If the pain of the situation is greater than the pain of failure then they will default to failure to relieve that discomfort. People will do more to avoid pain than seek pleasure, so even if you think you want to win a Cup you will sabotage your own efforts if somewhere in your mind failure is OK and you do not find ways to cope with the pressure of a game 7. And you will have a very hard time doing that if they opposition is taking control of their mental game while you are simply waiting to see what happens before you feel good about it.

Then inevitably, when the other guy is making a hard push at the end, if somewhere in the back of your mind is "oh no, not this again", then you may as well just put the puck in your own net.

Just because rookies or even vets haven't learned this yet doesn't mean it isn't there for them to learn and draw upon. You have two choices as a professional athlete: either allow your mind and therefore your performance to wax or wane depending on circumstances, or take charge of your own mental capabilities and do the things that give you the best chance to succeed.

From a personal career-based perspective, waiting to land on a team that finds "it" and gets the benefit of luck and momentum all the way to the Cup is a very passive, unreliable option.

This commentary has nothing to do with luck. You are talking about confidence.

Did you see what Jordan Spieth said today, about reliving 2016 Masters as he was imploding? He's a supremely confident stud athlete in his field.

He said, he thought back to his recent choke job, and almost repeated it. There are very few Jordan Spieth's, and even he was concerned. He's so far following the path of exactly one other golfer. One guy who has done what he's done at his age. If you don't know who that golfer is, then...I will assume you do.

So picture your not Jordan Spieth (you are Sergio Garcia), and you are amazing at what you do, but it doesn't work out for you....until is does? Is Garcia the mental midget you characterize in your post? Was Spieth in 2016? Neither is true.

It's is VERY hard to reach the top in any profession. The way some of us here criticize, like we've been at the top of our profession.......please. It's hard to win. You are playing against the very best. In team sports it's harder, as not only do you have your own demons, you have the opponent and teammates to deal with directly.
 

g00n

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Nov 22, 2007
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This commentary has nothing to do with luck. You are talking about confidence.

Did you see what Jordan Spieth said today, about reliving 2016 Masters as he was imploding? He's a supremely confident stud athlete in his field.

He said, he thought back to his recent choke job, and almost repeated it. There are very few Jordan Spieth's, and even he was concerned. He's so far following the path of exactly one other golfer. One guy who has done what he's done at his age. If you don't know who that golfer is, then...I will assume you do.

So picture your not Jordan Spieth (you are Sergio Garcia), and you are amazing at what you do, but it doesn't work out for you....until is does? Is Garcia the mental midget you characterize in your post? Was Spieth in 2016? Neither is true.

It's is VERY hard to reach the top in any profession. The way some of us here criticize, like we've been at the top of our profession.......please. It's hard to win. You are playing against the very best. In team sports it's harder, as not only do you have your own demons, you have the opponent and teammates to deal with directly.

I'm responding to a poster who argued that situational confidence and momentum were the needed ingredient rather than a different kind of confidence and professionalism. That has everything to do with luck because in the former case you're leaving everything to chance, as I said, in the hopes that the momentum of others or randomness will boost you to the appropriate performance level.

It's interesting you bring up Spieth because I was going to mention him as well. He could've collapsed and allowed his demons to jump up but instead he rallied, sucked it up, and got down to business. It's not magic. That's what champions do. He may be one of the best right now but ALL the top golfers know what he was experiencing at that time and have overcome similar situations in their lives. You don't win, or even make the Pro tour, without having some of that in your bag. With Spieth it happened on a bigger stage than most because he put himself in that position.

What you saw there was Spieth learning from his mistakes rather than being overwhelmed by fear when a similar collapse seemed to be unfolding. He confronted it with his caddie and DECIDED he was not going to let it happen. He didn't just go along with the breaks and say "oh well, bad luck on that hole, what can you do, I'll get em next year". Hell, on the very first hole his caddie told him "get over it" when he whined about a bad lie for his second shot. It's a constant challenge but one that can be overcome. With the Capitals, such breaks are seen as signs of the inevitable, impending disaster. Then it happens as I described earlier.

And yes, Sergio has been a head case for many years. It took him a long, long time to break through because of it. He's actually a perfect example of someone with massive talent but an inferior mental game 99% of the time, and it's been cited as a case study in some examinations. In golf it often manifests in putting, which is the part of the game that's the most mental and subject to even microscopic fluctuations of confidence. So it should not be any surprise that Sergio struggled with putting for years, especially down the stretch in majors, while a guy like Spieth has as strong putter as his greatest ally. You could see it yesterday with the early misses, then later on he drained everything. That's not a coincidence.

People seem to think the mental aspect of high level athletics is something you have forever or you don't. That's not true. It's something that needs constant work. Like a muscle it atrophies. And like a muscle you can strengthen it through training. Again, whether or not people avail themselves of that opportunity is on them.
 
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