Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXXI -- Will we even care by July 1?

[Calicaps]

previous: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2194079

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[twabby]

Is Justin Williams worth 5.5 mil a year? No.

Would he be an anchor at that salary? Hardly.

Oshie plays more or less the same style on steroids. Having him devolve into a savvy veteran 45 point 2nd line RW would hardly be the end of the world

He is the precise kind of player you sign to a long deal to bring down the cap hit

Oshie will get plenty of long-term offers. It's not like the Capitals will be able to differentiate themselves by being the only team to offer 6+ years. It's going to come down to whether Oshie will accept a hometown discount and I just highly doubt that especially given his recent injury scares. Why wouldn't he look to cash in on his likely last big contract of his career? It's going to be a bidding war IMO.

Andrew Ladd just got 7 x $5.5M and Kyle Okposo got 7 years x $6.0M. What are you seriously expecting Oshie to get, especially if he has another good postseason? And what is your cutoff where you say it's not worth it?

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I don't think Oshie is chasing the last copper penny like some are painting here. I also don't think he wants to go play for the Islanders or the Sabres or a similarly crappy franchise.

He came here and had two career years. I'd be surprised if he doesn't want to stay pretty strongly.

I'd give him $6 x 5.

 

[Jags]

Andrew Ladd just got 7 x $5.5M and Kyle Okposo got 7 years x $6.0M. What are you seriously expecting Oshie to get, especially if he has another good postseason? And what is your cutoff where you say it's not worth it?

Don't you think other factors go into those negotiations, though? Andrew Ladd's new contract has been a bit of a cautionary tale. He's knocked in some goals, but the Isles have every reason to be underwhelmed.

Despite his grit, Oshie isn't the physical specimen that Lucic and Okposo are. Those guys are also 2 years younger.

Oshie hasn't had the 5 years that Eriksson had putting up 60+ points (70+ a few times) and 30 goals prior to his UFA year.

He seems to like it here, Ovi appears to love him, he's smart enough to know how much he's benefiting from the personnel/systems/coaching, and there aren't many other teams out there that fit the same bill.

Now figure in Oshie's recent injury issues and there's plenty of reasons to believe he might sign for less.

I'd give him the $6m for 4 years, with the money scaling down if he wants more term. That'd put him at 34 at the end of the deal, around the same age Williams was when he started taking less. I don't think that's a bad roadmap for his career or family, and it seems pretty fair to us.

I don't disagree that several teams would be in the hunt if he goes UFA, but I don't think there are many teams (if any) where he could thrive the way he does here, and Oshie seems smart enough to know that.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

This guy needs to turn into an NHLer.....pretty excited to see him in NA.

 

[g00n]

So the belief was that Oshie was underperforming in St Louis compared to his potential, but now he's overperforming?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

He's outperforming his contract now.....was he underperforming before? I'd say no overall. Caps have put him in the best position to succeed as an individual NHL'er in his career without a doubt. That should matter in determining where he ends up.

 

[Hivemind]

So the belief was that Oshie was underperforming in St Louis compared to his potential, but now he's overperforming?

He's shooting 10.8% above his career average this season. Not sure why you'd be surprised that the valuations of the player are different.

 

[Revelation]

Oshie will get plenty of long-term offers. It's not like the Capitals will be able to differentiate themselves by being the only team to offer 6+ years. It's going to come down to whether Oshie will accept a hometown discount and I just highly doubt that especially given his recent injury scares. Why wouldn't he look to cash in on his likely last big contract of his career? It's going to be a bidding war IMO.

Andrew Ladd just got 7 x $5.5M and Kyle Okposo got 7 years x $6.0M. What are you seriously expecting Oshie to get, especially if he has another good postseason? And what is your cutoff where you say it's not worth it?

I'd hope for something like 8 x 5.25, maybe even 8 x 5. Hometown discount combined with length and the extra year. Front load it since money is much more valuable up front.

I think he'd still be a Knuble level contributor in his late 30s and integral over the next 4-5 years.

 

[twabby]

A $6.0M AAV offer for 4 or 5 years sounds reasonable enough from my point of view, I just don't see it being attractive enough from Oshie's camp. This year's UFA class is even weaker than last year's and couple that with every team losing a player to expansion and I think you're going to see Oshie command a ton. I really see him getting close to $45M total, maybe like 7 x $6.5M or 6 x $7.5M.

I'm just not sure why Oshie would agree to a 4 or even 5 year deal when he'll almost surely have better offers on the table. At the expiration of a 4 or 5 year deal he'll be 34/35 years old and likely won't be able to get another lucrative deal, and depending on injuries or other scenarios he may be out of the league completely at that point. Why not cash in when your value is at its highest? I don't think GMs are suddenly going to become incredibly prudent overnight.

Also it's tough to say he won't ask for a lot especially when his agent absolutely is going to tell him to go after every last penny. He likely has less than 10 years left in his life to earn a living so there is going to be a lot of pressure on him to extract maximum value.

 

[g00n]

He's shooting 10.8% above his career average this season. Not sure why you'd be surprised that the valuations of the player are different.

Not sure why you'd say that. The question is why are people surprised he's playing better now if they thought he wasn't playing as well as he could before?

 

[Hivemind]

I also don't think the comparison between Oshie and Williams that was made in the previous thread is valid. Oshie manufactures more opportunities himself, while Williams tends to play more of a complimentary style that relies on his line mates getting the puck to him. Williams is one of those players that excels at finding the soft spots in the defense and finishing from there. You don't need high level skating to do that. While Oshie can certainly finish off plays, he doesn't show the same ability of being able to get open in tight spaces the same way that Williams does (outside of the powerplay, which is mostly a formational thing).

Given that Oshie relies on his physical skills a lot more than Williams does in order to create plays and score, I don't think using Williams as an evaluation for how Oshie will age is a particularly wise notion. I'd look at Zach Parise (obviously without the game breaking speed of Parise at his peak), Patrick Sharp, and Ryan Callahan (albeit he's pretty much the same age) as closer comparables to how Oshie might age.

 

[Jags]

Also it's tough to say he won't ask for a lot especially when his agent absolutely is going to tell him to go after every last penny. He likely has less than 10 years left in his life to earn a living so there is going to be a lot of pressure on him to extract maximum value.

Do you think if we offer him 6x6 he wouldn't take it?

You think he'll be worth it for 4 or 5 years, but there's no reason to expect he won't be what Williams is now at 36, and Williams went through injury hell earlier in his career.

As for extracting all the money he can, I agree with CCF that not everyone thinks that way. Washington is an ideal fit for him, and I think that likely matters to him.

 

[Jags]

I'd look at Zach Parise (obviously without the game breaking speed of Parise at his peak), Patrick Sharp, and Ryan Callahan (albeit he's pretty much the same age) as closer comparables to how Oshie might age.

I think Williams is just an easy, in-house comp as a 36-year-old that can still play. I don't see any reason that Oshie's game figures to age less gracefully than Williams', and I think that's the only point people are making with the comparison.

 

[twabby]

Do you think if we offer him 6x6 he wouldn't take it?

You think he'll be worth it for 4 or 5 years, but there's no reason to expect he won't be what Williams is now at 36, and Williams went through injury hell earlier in his career.

As for extracting all the money he can, I agree with CCF that not everyone thinks that way. Washington is an ideal fit for him, and I think that likely matters to him.

No I don't think he'll take it when he very well could have offers that net him $10M more total. While fit does matter, millions of dollars likely matter more.

I think Williams is just an easy, in-house comp as a 36-year-old that can still play. I don't see any reason that Oshie's game figures to age less gracefully than Williams', and I think that's the only point people are making with the comparison.

For one Williams has proven to have less of a track record of injury. Oshie has been dinged up for much of his career, including this season. As Hivemind mentioned Oshie also plays a much more physical game and one that relies more on skill, which tends to deteriorate with age more than hockey IQ.

Also it's not like Williams is really having a banner season and he's only 35, not 36.

 

[Ridley Simon]

A $6.0M AAV offer for 4 or 5 years sounds reasonable enough from my point of view, I just don't see it being attractive enough from Oshie's camp. This year's UFA class is even weaker than last year's and couple that with every team losing a player to expansion and I think you're going to see Oshie command a ton. I really see him getting close to $45M total, maybe like 7 x $6.5M or 6 x $7.5M.

I'm just not sure why Oshie would agree to a 4 or even 5 year deal when he'll almost surely have better offers on the table. At the expiration of a 4 or 5 year deal he'll be 34/35 years old and likely won't be able to get another lucrative deal, and depending on injuries or other scenarios he may be out of the league completely at that point. Why not cash in when your value is at its highest? I don't think GMs are suddenly going to become incredibly prudent overnight.

Also it's tough to say he won't ask for a lot especially when his agent absolutely is going to tell him to go after every last penny. He likely has less than 10 years left in his life to earn a living so there is going to be a lot of pressure on him to extract maximum value.

All of this is why you do your best to sign him now. 7x5.5m. Don't let him get to FA.

 

[txpd]

re: Oshie, Alzner and Williams. I think a lot of things will depend on how the playoffs go. But assuming they are not embarrassed by the franchise, its hard to know what they will do.

These players don't all act the same. The Caps are a good job. Leonsis has top facilities and he treats his players very well by all accounts. For players that don't want to be big media stars, DC is a great place to have a normal life while playing in the NHL. Bondra loved it for that reason and Jagr hated it for the same reason.

Oshie went thru a growing career playing for a coach that held him back and made him miserable. Now he plays is happy and in a position to succeed. Might choose to score the biggest check he can and he might choose to do the best he can to stay in a good situation.

I think without knowing the man and his family its really hard to assume what he wants. Same with the others. Alzner may want a big check. He may want to play at home in Calgary and take a discount. He may want to stay in DC and take a discount.

I will be curious to see what happens.

Hell....I bet Daniel Winnik wants to stay

 

[txpd]

All of this is why you do your best to sign him now. 7x5.5m. Don't let him get to FA.

I think we are going to see a number of good free agents resign with their current teams after the Xdraft. I just think that expansion has changed SOP for this one season.

Oshie will have to take a hometown discount to stay regardless. If a guy is willing to stay for less than his open market value, I doubt that he gets lured away by a late offer.

 

[Jags]

No I don't think he'll take it when he very well could have offers that net him $10M more total.

I doubt you mean that someone will offer him over $7.5m a year, so you're implying that someone'll give him more years, which is certainly possible, but there's no comp for it. Ladd got less for more years. Okposo got 6x7, but was two years younger.

For one Williams has proven to have less of a track record of injury.

How so? Oshie missed over 50 fewer games in the first 8 years of his career than Williams did. If he plays the rest of this season, Oshie will have missed about half the games Williams missed in his 9th year.

Williams has proven to have MORE of a track record of injury, not less.

Oshie has been dinged up for much of his career, including this season.

Significantly less than Williams, and not much in the last few years. 12 games this year, sure, but only 15 games total in the 3 years prior.

As Hivemind mentioned Oshie also plays a much more physical game and one that relies more on skill

Much more physical? Debatable. Williams has never been a shrinking violet. His physical game doesn't lack.

Relies more on skill? Again, debatable. His skill game has cooled a little, but Williams was an impact skill forward for a long time. He didn't pot 30 twice just by having a nose for good positioning. His skillset is a bit different than Oshie's, sure, but getting to space, being where his linemates expect, and finishing? That describes both of these guys in pretty equal measure.

I agree that Oshie is more skill-driven, but it's not by a lot.

tends to deteriorate with age more than hockey IQ

And with Williams, you're seeing that deterioration. The idea that Oshie could likely be similar in his 36th year to Williams now isn't a stretch at all.

You're also implying that Williams has a higher hockey IQ, which I don't think is true. And if it is, again, it's not by a lot.

If you're right that Oshie's skill level will diminish in 6 years, which I don't think anyone doubts, then it's reasonable that his game evolves in a way that reflects Williams' current game. He has the smarts to endure that decline.

You really have to nitpick to argue that this is a bad comparison.

 

[txpd]

its funny. Oshie could be the team's leading goal scorer. If they do well in the playoffs it will likely be with a big contribution from Oshie. And we are talking about how we don't want to keep him?

Interesting times.

 

[um]

Playoffs will determine who we should keep, hopefully.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

If My proposed Oshie 5 year deal extends another 2 years at the end, he could come pretty close to make what he would get on a longer term deal, assuming he's still playing decent. If he's a JW type in 5 years, he's still making good coin on his next extension. That would likely take him to retirement. This all could come down to only about $5-6 mil difference in total earned income when 7 more years of his career pass. Is he willing to give a little bit back is the question? If he loves it here I think he would. Then again if the Caps love him, maybe they offer 6x6 to get it done?

 

[Revelation]

No I don't think he'll take it when he very well could have offers that net him $10M more total. While fit does matter, millions of dollars likely matter more.



For one Williams has proven to have less of a track record of injury. Oshie has been dinged up for much of his career, including this season. As Hivemind mentioned Oshie also plays a much more physical game and one that relies more on skill, which tends to deteriorate with age more than hockey IQ.

Also it's not like Williams is really having a banner season and he's only 35, not 36.

Williams had a 37 game year, followed by a 44 game year, followed by a 49 game year, followed by a 73 game year, when he was 26-30. His injury history was far worse than Oshie's at about the same age.

Oshie is also a very cerebral player, as one would have to be with his skating given the fact that he doesn't have world class Thornton or Backstrom like abilities.

 

[Holtbyisms]

Oshie inflated shooting% probably has a whole lot more with him playing with elite talent than it does luck. He's being put in positions now he's never been in before to score. You've got potentially the greatest goal scorer of all time flanking him and a guy who's probably the best setup man currently in the NHL centering the two. Oshie isn't being checked as tightly as he was in St Louis because there is so much other talent on his line. That and the fact he sits in the slot and buries one-timers all day on the PP. The guys performing exactly like he should be. He's getting opportunities and taking advantage of them. It's not a fluke.

He's being given the same chances Brouwer was but he's so much of a better player he's making it count.

PAY THE MAN Kurt Cousins Jr.