Acceptance and Planning for a Cup Run 2023/2024

NewZealandMike

Registered User
Nov 14, 2022
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I am probably going to get torn apart for this post but after much reflection and discussion with fellow Leaf fans back in T.dot this was the consensus.

2022/2023 - Were not ready to accomplish the goal this year. Like it or not we have too many absolute needs that remain unfilled and insufficient assets to acquire these assets at current asking prices without sacrificing Knies and 2023 1st pick. And even then its debatable if were good enough. So what to do?

Objective This year
- Acquire a physical big D with term to replace the loss of Muzzin. But not a top 2 or maybe top 4 caliber player.A player like Gavrikov or Edmundson
- Bring Knies up as soon as he is available and see what we have before tossing him away after having the good fortune of drafting a highly touted PF.
- Acquire a physical winger for the bottom 6 who can play ( Comtois comes to mind at a decent price )
Run with this while keeping Knies and 1st in a very deep draft.

2023/2024 - GO FOR IT ALL
- Cap space will open up for the Leafs significantly as cap rises $ 1m, significant players depart.

Cap room left from 2022/2023 Season est $ 3M
Cap Space Increase $ 1M
Kerfoot Gone $ 3.5M
Engvall Gone $ 2.25M
Murray Traded $ 4.875M
Holl Traded $ 2M
Simmons Gone $ 0.900M
Anderson/ZAR Gone $ 0.800M
Mete Gone $ 0.750M
Total Available Cap $ 19.125M

Contract Reups 2023/2024
Bunting $3.75M 5YRS $ 2.825M Increase
Timmins $ 1.4M 2 YRS $ 0.550M Increase
Woll $ 0.750 2 yrs $ 0.750 New
Benn $ 0.900 2 YRS $ 0.150M Increase
Total Cap Spent existing Roster $ 4.275M

Available Cap Space to spend $ 15.225 M

LINE UP

Bunting/Matthews/Marner
FA/Tavares/Nylander
Knies/FA/Jarnok
ZAR/FA/Comtois


Reilly Brodie
Gavrikov/Liljegrin
Sandin/Geo
Benn

Samsinov
Woll

Target Free Agents

top 6 - Taserenko OR similar player who can play with top 6 with a physical edge.
bottom 6
Free Agent Botton 6 physical big Centre defensively skilled
Trade for a younger bottom 6 centre with size and skill who can muck it up
Maybe add a Tanner Jeanott or another big physical player who can fight to be added when needed to lineup

This toughens up the bottom 6 tremendously with Knies, Comtois and ZAR already in place

There will still be cap room during the season to add another significant player via trade and cap room with assets to spare. When the need is examined carefully. You have more draft assets and 2024 1st to deal

Probably needs some tinkering buts that's it

Cap rises significantly in 2024/2025 sign our key guys
 
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Judas Tavares

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I've been saying it a lot this year. But I think a lot depends on what happens with Matthews on July 1. It kinda sucks in that respect, cause it makes it a bit harder to focus specifically on this year with that big looming decision/moment standing in the way.

If he re-signs, even if it is only for 5 years again, well you then have 6 more years with an open window. Great. In those 6 years, you better be able to surround him with talent, including homegrown cheap talent.

If he doesn't re-sign, I think you need to pivot and consider it may be life without him and likely start a rebuild. Recoup assets while you can and get a kick start on the rebuild, rather than waiting the extra year. What else would help kickstart that rebuild? Homegrown cheap talent.

Thus, please don't blow all our picks and prospects this year with a short-term vision.
 

Larcos_Unal

Excuses are for losers
Jul 6, 2007
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I am in complete agreement that they don't have the horses to go on a long cup run this year but the minimum goal still needs to be winning a round.
That would go a long way towards learning what it takes to win, in addition to giving Matthews a reason (other than dollars) to stick around.
 

PromisedLand

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Dec 3, 2016
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IMO

1) Leafs can't do much unless Tavares' contract is off the books; 11 AAV for what he brings is just too much
2) First, if Matthews, Willy, Marner re-sign, and for how much?
3) after hos is the roster composition, and goalie
4) especially: how does the management look like? whats their game plan? etc.

I personally wouldn't trade the 1st rounder this year or next year for that matter to so called "go for it";
Reason: This team hasnt shown me the mental fortitude; I'd rather keep the assets and go from there
 
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NewZealandMike

Registered User
Nov 14, 2022
122
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Do we need this thread every time we lose a game for god sakes
Has zero to do with that.
Its the acknowledgement that we lack a top 6 physical player and no one to defend net on D, plus a bottom 6 in need of more skill and physical play
 

ToneDog

56 years and counting. #FireTheShanaClan!
Jun 11, 2017
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I am in complete agreement that they don't have the horses to go on a long cup run this year but the minimum goal still needs to be winning a round.
That would go a long way towards learning what it takes to win, in addition to giving Matthews a reason (other than dollars) to stick around.

You can't keep running it back unless they get to ECF at a minimum. And you can't have Dubas trying to fill out the roster like he has every summer since he took over. He as a better chance to win the lottery than finding the right combination July 1st.
 

HockeyVirus

Woll stan.
Nov 15, 2020
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Has zero to do with that.
Its the acknowledgement that we lack a top 6 physical player and no one to defend net on D, plus a bottom 6 in need of more skill and physical play

Honest question, do you think we need a team Canada roster to win? Because I think some of you are so detached from reality of how good this team is given the season we've had despite leading the league in man games lost, if you read this forum you'd think we were clinging to being a bubble team.
 

NewZealandMike

Registered User
Nov 14, 2022
122
136
IMO

1) Leafs can't do much unless Tavares' contract is off the books; 11 AAV for what he brings is just too much
2) First, if Matthews, Willy, Marner re-sign, and for how much?
3) after hos is the roster composition, and goalie
4) especially: how does the management look like? whats their game plan? etc.

I personally wouldn't trade the 1st rounder this year or next year for that matter to so called "go for it";
Reason: This team hasnt shown me the mental fortitude; I'd rather keep the assets and go from there
Yes I agree but Willy Matthews contract changes affect 2024/2025 NOT 2023/2024
After this season Leafs lose a lot of salaries and must decide which goalie goes, I assume Murray
 

NewZealandMike

Registered User
Nov 14, 2022
122
136
Honest question, do you think we need a team Canada roster to win? Because I think some of you are so detached from reality of how good this team is given the season we've had despite leading the league in man games lost, if you read this forum you'd think we were clinging to being a bubble team.
I play Rugby and have since HS in Canada. What I know is no Team has an Allstar lineup and wins. Players fill needs that allow the stars to shine and to muck in goals to help. Right now today. Leafs are soft, top 6 need somebody big and able to play tough but have skill. Bottom 6 needs the same
D with loss of Muzzin is not able to battle the net front
Not looking for "stars"
Comtois is not one, keeping Knies is not one, adding a Edmundson/Gavrikov is not one...Only next year Are Agent looking for top 6 might be
 

Larcos_Unal

Excuses are for losers
Jul 6, 2007
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Toronto
Honest question, do you think we need a team Canada roster to win? Because I think some of you are so detached from reality of how good this team is given the season we've had despite leading the league in man games lost, if you read this forum you'd think we were clinging to being a bubble team.
Regular season success does not immediately translate to playoff success & proof is in the pudding. Do you honestly think this roster has what it takes to win 16 games in the spring?
 

PromisedLand

I need more FOOD
Dec 3, 2016
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Yes I agree but Willy Matthews contract changes affect 2024/2025 NOT 2023/2024
After this season Leafs lose a lot of salaries and must decide which goalie goes, I assume Murray

quality depth players, quality defensive depth will not come cheap; there are teams out there who could offer better deals b/c they don't have 3 players with 11 AAV on their roster.

Also, one thing that every team that has won the cup or most teams at least have had one thing in common

#1D man

Hawks had Keith, Kings had Doughty (when they won), Bolts have Hedman, Caps had Carlson, Pens had Letang (except on one occasion but they had three scoring lines with Kessel);
Most recently Avs with Makar


I don't think Leafs are gonna be able to do much until Tavares' contract is off the books and there is significant cap increase such that increases to Matthews, Nylander and Marner doesn't hamper the Leafs ability (if they all re-sign).

Sure the cap increase will be for everyone in the league and leafs won't have any competitive advantage but it it is still something I guess.

Chances are Leafs remain the only team in the league with 3 players making 10+ on their contracts still when/if Matthews, Nylander, Marner re-sign
 
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egd27

exspecta usque ad proximum annum
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we should make a run next year huh?

Seems like that's always the plan
 
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NewZealandMike

Registered User
Nov 14, 2022
122
136
Lol. Lose a game and people just give up on the year. Ridiculous.

We have a top tier team and have one of the best chances at a cup.
It seems extremely unlikely we see repeat winners for the Cup. Were close now. But we can't dump Knies and 2023 1ST and not win. next year we have lots of cap space to fill only 2 key spots a top 6 winger ( 6/8m) and a bottom 6 big physical C (2/3m)
This year go trade for a big D and a bottom 6 or two physical players Comtois/Jeannott types.
Can't do it all this year don't have the assets.
 

AvroArrow

Registered User
Jun 10, 2011
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Toronto
Breaking news, top 5 team in the league is not a contender and shouldn't even bother trying to compete for the cup. Wtf is this thread ?

This the best defensive team hockey we've seen this group play, Tavares isn't getting younger, we only have Matthews for 2 years (guaranteed) we're not going to just throw in the towel in January. This team is a lock for the playoffs, anything can happen once you get there. The focus needs to be acquiring guys who can help make a run this year and next. That's what all the good cup contenders/teams do.

Think of the Avalanche and Kadri then Manson, Boston with Hall/Lindholm, Tampa with McDonagh. These teams weren't grabbing guys for 1 year and then watch them walk. We need to target our holes at 2LW and top 4 shutdown D, and look for guys that can help us for 2+ years.

I really realllllllly want Ekholm, he plays a great shut down game, he's physical and he's just punishing especially in the playoffs with the physicality. He has term, so we'll need to figure some stuff out with the cap. But the guys we should be looking for should be guys that will be here next year as well. Chychrun is another guy I would target.

Dubas f***ed up by not going for Hall and then letting our divisional rival grab him, he would have been the perfect fit for us. He's fit perfectly in Bostons system, and a guy like that probably won't be available this year. So for forward we'll have to find a rental.

It would be an absolute disaster if Dubas thought like this OP and decided not to take a shot to give his team a chance.

This team is absolutely a contender, but they are clearly below Boston. The focus should be fixing the hole at 2LW, a top 4 shut down D, and a good depth C capable of moving up and down the lineup in case of an injury. It would be a damn shame to not give this core a legitimate chance.
 

Gary Nylund

Registered User
Oct 10, 2013
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We could still win the cup this year, but I agree that next year our chances are probably better and we shouldn't spend futures on rentals, just roll with what we have and see what happens. And thinking about what the roster might look like next season is always interesting I guess though I can't be bothered to think about it too much, just too many permutations. having said that, not sure why we're ignoring Holmberg, I think he'd fill one of the FA slots nicely. And it's way too early to say Samsonov can be the guy in net, Murray might look like the guy a month from now, there's just no way to know.
 

PromisedLand

I need more FOOD
Dec 3, 2016
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Think of the Avalanche and Kadri then Manson, Boston with Hall/Lindholm, Tampa with McDonagh. These teams weren't grabbing guys for 1 year and then watch them walk. We need to target our holes at 2LW and top 4 shutdown D, and look for guys that can help us for 2+ years.

I really realllllllly want Ekholm, he plays a great shut down game, he's physical and he's just punishing especially in the playoffs with the physicality. He has term, so we'll need to figure some stuff out with the cap. But the guys we should be looking for should be guys that will be here next year as well. Chychrun is another guy I would target.

Dubas f***ed up by not going for Hall and then letting our divisional rival grab him, he would have been the perfect fit for us. He's fit perfectly in Bostons system, and a guy like that probably won't be available this year. So for forward we'll have to find a rental.

It would be an absolute disaster if Dubas thought like this OP and decided not to take a shot to give his team a chance.

This team is absolutely a contender, but they are clearly below Boston. The focus should be fixing the hole at 2LW, a top 4 shut down D, and a good depth C capable of moving up and down the lineup in case of an injury. It would be a damn shame to not give this core a legitimate chance.

EDIT: correction misread the post
 

Gary Nylund

Registered User
Oct 10, 2013
31,158
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It would be an absolute disaster if Dubas thought like this OP and decided not to take a shot to give his team a chance.

This team is absolutely a contender, but they are clearly below Boston. The focus should be fixing the hole at 2LW, a top 4 shut down D, and a good depth C capable of moving up and down the lineup in case of an injury. It would be a damn shame to not give this core a legitimate chance.
It would a shame if this team thought they didn't have a chance with the roster set the way it is now. If that's what they think may as well trade them all and start a rebuild with players with a better attitude. I'm pretty sure these guys think they can win though. :)
 

Suntouchable13

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Dec 20, 2003
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I disagree, you have to go for it NOW. Not next year, now! Besides, I wouldn't re-sign Dubas unless the team at least wins 2 rounds. If he can only build the 3rd best team in the division, then bye bye. I am sick of excuses for this guy.
 

Buds17

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Nov 29, 2015
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Samsonov, Gavrikov, Comtois and ZAR would all require new contracts as well.
 

AvroArrow

Registered User
Jun 10, 2011
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It would a shame if this team thought they didn't have a chance with the roster set the way it is now. If that's what they think may as well trade them all and start a rebuild with players with a better attitude. I'm pretty sure these guys think they can win though. :)
Of course, you want the players and coaches to have that mindset. As the GM you want to have the mindset to give them the best possible chance and also be able to compare them to the teams we'll have to get through. We have to play through Tampa and Boston, most of us agree this team doesn't have the best chance vs Boston. We do have a chance, I'd put it at 60/40 in favor of Boston, but you want the GM to give his team the best shot.
 

Leafs87

Mr. Steal Your Job
Aug 10, 2010
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I agree this isn’t an all in year, however they have to find a way to learn to win (get past the 1st round at least). If this team with minor tweaks can’t get out of the first, I’d go the retool route VS all in next year
 
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