Could really see it going either way. I'm a Bolts fan so hard to see it from an unbiased perspective.
The team this year inspires a lot more confidence than last. They won't rely on the PP to win games. Both teams very good with their respective "power kills" on the PK. Florida missing Ekblad for two games is a big loss. They could be without Puljujarvi for a game or two thanks to his hit on Chaffee last night, granted, idk how important he really is to Florida.
I think there are more question marks on the Florida side than the Tampa side, but I honestly think this is a coin toss. I could see either team getting hot and winning quick or dragging it to 6 or 7.
I'm really skeptical of the idea that Matthew Tkachuk won't be back and playing like a psychopath on his first shift of game 1. But Barkov has been banged up and the Panthers in general are probably a little tired similar to how we were by 2022.
I think Florida's backend was better last year with Montour and OEL, but they did add Brad Marchand. I think Tampa is better in basically all respects and Florida will have a harder time negating the TB top line with Guentzel than they did last year, even though Stamkos was good in that series.
Cirelli had a great series last year and had 2 goals taken off the board for goaltender interference in game 5 (the second of which was totally BS but not sure if it would have changed much).
For TB to win, they basically just need to keep doing what they're doing: Dominate at home, choke out the other team's offense in the third with shutdown play, Vasilevskiy to make the saves he needs to and to make a big one here or there, and the depth contributors to have their fingerprints on the series. They are a rougher team than you'd think and with guys like Hagel, Girgensons, Cernak, and perhaps Conor Geekie, they should be able to weather the physicality Florida brings.
For FLA to win, they need to reverse course on their last few weeks of play, score a lot more, and Bob will have to be as strong as he was last year. They need guys like Verhaeghe to break out quickly and make an impact. Last year their physicality alone was just about enough to take TB down but this year I think they will need more than that. Their stars are going to have to carry the load early in the series until they get Ekblad back.