Series Talk: [A1] Toronto Maple Leafs vs [WC1] Ottawa Senators (TOR Leads 1-0)

[Coffey]

Must see TV.
Super excited to watch.

 

[notbias]

Leafs goaltending is a function of their ability, as a team, to limit high danger chances and lock down a game. When needed, the Leafs can play a very mature defensive structure.
Imo the Sens aren’t a mature enough team (yet in their development) to match the Leafs in defensive maturity. I see the Sens goalie, Ulmark, needing to make the far more difficult saves because of the two clubs difference in commitment to defensive structure.
Leafs in five.

13th in HDSA... they don't limit high danger chances.

3rd highest sv% above expected.

Stolarz has been amazing, he has the best goalie stats in the league, just hasn't played enough.

Woll has been well above average, but Stolarz has carried the load.

Toronto is not defensive, they have good goaltending.

Stolarz has the 3rd highest GSAx/60 in the last 10 years (min 20 games, and only Stolarz last year and Ullmark from two years ago have him beat, that's it).

Having said all that, Stolarz is part of the team and has a chance to steal some games if he can carry over his play to the playoffs, but this team is not great anywhere outside of goaltending.

 

[Connor MethDavid]

1932 last time leafs won 3 rounds

Wouldn't surprise me if MLSE had a secret, underground lab for trying to clone our 1967 Cup-winning team. It's pretty desperate at this point.

I'm keeping my eyes open for an influx of bald, middle-aged, chain-smoking rookie players popping up on the bench.

 

[K1900L]

Leafs in 5 or 6. Can’t believe how many people actually think the Sens will win… Tkachuk isn’t some mythical creature that we’ve never seen before.. After playing Bergeron and Kucherov a million times the Sens don’t scare us.

Tkachuk 71 games 29 goals 55 points
Knies 77 games 29 goals 56 points

The Leafs haven't earned enough respect to be a runaway type of favorite in any series. Their core has shown too many weaknesses over the years, especially mentally.
I also don't think anyone believes Tkachuk to be a mythical creature, as there are players who are superior skill wise even on the Senators. He just brings something to the game that is very unique and it will be interesting to see how it translates into playoff hockey.

 

[Orfieus]

I will bet against Toronto every time. The success rate speaks for itself.

as a die hard Leaf fan I dont blame anyone who thinks Toronto wont make it out of the 1st round

 

[Fatass]

13th in HDSA... they don't limit high danger chances.

3rd highest sv% above expected.

Stolarz has been amazing, he has the best goalie stats in the league, just hasn't played enough.

Woll has been well above average, but Stolarz has carried the load.

Toronto is not defensive, they have good goaltending.

Stolarz has the 3rd highest GSAx/60 in the last 10 years (min 20 games, and only Stolarz last year and Ullmark from two years ago have him beat, that's it).

Having said all that, Stolarz is part of the team and has a chance to steal some games if he can carry over his play to the playoffs, but this team is not great anywhere outside of goaltending.

You do understand that data used to generate statistics are collected by the home club and the bias varies from team to team. As a result, the end statistical result is too often not accurate enough to create a full picture. Watching both clubs play it’s clear that the Leafs play (when needed) a much more mature defensive structure than the Sens. Consequently the Sens goalie will need to stand on his head for that team to win even one game.

 

[authentic]

100%. In the last few months you can't escape political talk on there and it's annoying as hell. I usually use it for other sports (football, basketball, baseball) but even on those subs you tend to see political comments and honestly I dont care for it. Hear enough about that stuff as is, I want to read and discuss sports and sports alone on there.

Try the past few years

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

Leafs in 6 or Sens in 7 ( yes I believe in jinx )

 

[authentic]

You do understand that data used to generate statistics are collected by the home club and the bias varies from team to team. As a result, the end statistical result is too often not accurate enough to create a full picture. Watching both clubs play it’s clear that the Leafs play (when needed) a much more mature defensive structure than the Sens. Consequently the Sens goalie will need to stand on his head for that team to win even one game.

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves here, they’ve beaten us 5 games straight. I voted Leafs in 6 but it will be the least shocking thing ever to lose this series.

 

[The Hockey Tonk Man]

Will be tuning in for this.
Have a feeling it'll be a blood bath.

 

[notbias]

You do understand that data used to generate statistics are collected by the home club and the bias varies from team to team. As a result, the end statistical result is too often not accurate enough to create a full picture. Watching both clubs play it’s clear that the Leafs play (when needed) a much more mature defensive structure than the Sens. Consequently the Sens goalie will need to stand on his head for that team to win even one game.

Shot location data is tracked manually by each home team?

I'd be curious to get that confirmed.

I don't agree with your analysis, Stolarz has stood on his head this year, you can try to argue that it has been a team effort, but I'll never agree based on your eye test, because it doesn't match mine, and there aren't any statistics I've seen to comfirm it either.

 

[notbias]

I will bet against Toronto every time. The success rate speaks for itself.

I'd add a bet on the Oilers never winning a cup with Drai/McDavid.

The success rate speaks for itself.

 

[Ratsreign]

I'd rather them beat the shit out of each other for 7 games and then face them (assuming we can beat you guys)

Ottawa will leave some marks on the Leafs, too.

 

[Fatass]

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves here, they’ve beaten us 5 games straight. I voted Leafs in 6 but it will be the least shocking thing ever to lose this series.

Leafs made key additions for this season that changed the maturity of their overall game. Tanev is the top shutdown D in the league. OEL played a very important defensive role in the Panthers Cup. Berube is a proven Cup coach. Add in Knies growth and Marner’s new self confidence learned from the Four Nations and I see a club that will shut down the Sens. The Sens just don’t play with that type of maturity (defensively) yet. Their top guys have great skills, but do turn pucks over at bad times. Imo the Leafs elite skill will take advantage of those mistakes.

 

[Fatass]

Shot location data is tracked manually by each home team?

I'd be curious to get that confirmed.

I don't agree with your analysis, Stolarz has stood on his head this year, you can try to argue that it has been a team effort, but I'll never agree based on your eye test, because it doesn't match mine, and there aren't any statistics I've seen to comfirm it either.

Imo both statistics and eye test are required. It’s why teams use both.

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

I'd add a bet on the Oilers never winning a cup with Drai/McDavid.

The success rate speaks for itself.

I mean they did JUST go to a final . As a Leaf fan I’d kill for a run like that . No need to throw rocks living in glass houses . This is gonna be a battle . Anyone who thinks otherwise is gravely mistaken .

 

[EK65IsAGod]

Until proven otherwise Stolarz is Brian Elliott 2.0 fite me

 

[MessierII]

I'd add a bet on the Oilers never winning a cup with Drai/McDavid.

The success rate speaks for itself.

There’s levels to this game

 

[cyris]

So you think it’s the guy with the 5.17 gaa and .842 record in playoffs.

34:50 sample size. Totally solid argument

 

[authentic]

Leafs made key additions for this season that changed the maturity of their overall game. Tanev is the top shutdown D in the league. OEL played a very important defensive role in the Panthers Cup. Berube is a proven Cup coach. Add in Knies growth and Marner’s new self confidence learned from the Four Nations and I see a club that will shut down the Sens. The Sens just don’t play with that type of maturity (defensively) yet. Their top guys have great skills, but do turn pucks over at bad times. Imo the Leafs elite skill will take advantage of those mistakes.

Hey you know what I hope you’re right.

 

[Blowfish]

Stolarz has best sv% in entire nhl, third ga. And there is literally no forward that would float and not block shots. Those who didn’t buy in were benched during the season. Berube made this team into well oiled machine with emphasis on D.

Proof is in the pudding (playoffs).

 

[MCR74]

Proof is in the pudding (playoffs).

Yes because Ullmark was lights out for Boston in the post-season last time around.

 

[1specter]

Jealous of the sens who get the piss easy first round bye , they deserve it though great season I didin't think they would make it at the start of the year

caps in 3

 

[MCR74]

caps in 3

That prediction may not be far off.

 

[PatriceBergeronFan]

Leafs made key additions for this season that changed the maturity of their overall game. Tanev is the top shutdown D in the league. OEL played a very important defensive role in the Panthers Cup. Berube is a proven Cup coach. Add in Knies growth and Marner’s new self confidence learned from the Four Nations and I see a club that will shut down the Sens. The Sens just don’t play with that type of maturity (defensively) yet. Their top guys have great skills, but do turn pucks over at bad times. Imo the Leafs elite skill will take advantage of those mistakes.

This reads as "everything will be perfect for the Leafs". Not how playoff hockey works. Tanev the top shutdown defenseman in the NHL? Marner, an elite winger needed to find confidence?

Such a quaint spin of optimism. Wait until we start hearing the Matthews injured wrist excuses. That is a popular theme as well.

Ottawa at last has a sneaky strong team. This should be a good series.