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Series Talk: [A1] Toronto Maple Leafs vs [WC1] Ottawa Senators (TOR Leads 1-0)

Who wins in how many games?

  • Leafs in 4

    Votes: 27 3.1%

  • Leafs in 5

    Votes: 120 13.9%

  • Leafs in 6

    Votes: 241 28.0%

  • Leafs in 7

    Votes: 70 8.1%

  • Senators in 4

    Votes: 28 3.2%

  • Senators in 5

    Votes: 17 2.0%

  • Senators in 6

    Votes: 176 20.4%

  • Senators in 7

    Votes: 183 21.2%
  • Total voters
    862
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atlanticobserver said:
Even if they aren't as soft as previous iterations of the Leafs, I think the Sens are scrappier, just as strong defensively, and goaltending is kind of a wash. I think it will come down to whether or not the Leafs (read: core four) score enough
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I think this pretty much nails it.

Leafs are obviously the favorites. Defense and goaltending are a wash. Ottawa is a little bit deeper on forwards, but the Leafs have the clear advantage of more firepower at the top. But will that firepower overcome their past struggles?
 
Are Knies and Tkachuk going to drop the gloves on the opening shift to set the tone? I say yes. Both likely take the first shift in game 1 and likely all games
 
LivingRentFree said:
If the Ottawa Senators answer to the Knies-Matthews-Marner line is going to be Shane Pinto, my confidence level is going to go through the roof.
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I think you are underselling the Pinto line along with Sanderson-Zub, they've shown up against Toronto and done their job. Let's see if Toronto's guys can match them. Matthews being on the ice for 3 5v5 shots in 23:38 TOI against Pinto this year isn't great.
 
Korpse said:
I think you are underselling the Pinto line along with Sanderson-Zub, they've shown up against Toronto and done their job. Let's see if Toronto's guys can match them. Matthews being on the ice for 3 5v5 shots in 23:38 TOI against Pinto this year isn't great.
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If that matters, than so does Sanderson being -11 on the year no?
 
TheBeastCoast said:
I don't know if this is a waste of time and it will just go into the void of meme's and shit posting but I will attempt to actually breakdown the series. I think the defense and goaltending on paper is mostly a wash. Ottawa prob has a better 1D...Toronto a bit better depth. Forwards, I think Toronto has more game breaking talent up front...better at generating offense at even strength then Ottawa is. But again...they have to actually do it. I do think Ottawa has a much better 3rd line. Toronto has a better PP...both teams have decidedly average penalty kills. I think a lot of this series is going to come down to whether Ottawa can generate offense at even strength and for the Leafs if their penalty kill can step up. I don't see there being many high scoring games. Coaching obviously will be a big X factor as well just have to see how that plays out.
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Yep, this is the best analysis. My biggest concern is how much offense the Sens can generate at even strength. The Leafs have the higher end firepower, but Ottawa has the better 3rd line to counteract that. Home ice might be a big factor here. Both teams are content to play a tight low scoring game, so the whole thing might just come down to goaltending.
 
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HockeyVirus said:
What you are missing is everyone including Leaf fans expected them to take a step back this season because they had to learn how to play the Berube system. Point totals were going to go down, players and fans alike knew that and said as much. 108 points sure not crazy impressive until you put it in context.

You guys keep quoting the entire season when what matters is how they are playing right now. Why not quote their record since the TDL? This is what you guys keep missing. How they look as they finally fully understand the system and the finishing touches are on the roster.
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You don't live in a world outside of Toronto at all. Go ahead, quote that record since the TDL. Then look up Ottawa's.
 
Korpse said:
I think you are underselling the Pinto line along with Sanderson-Zub, they've shown up against Toronto and done their job. Let's see if Toronto's guys can match them. Matthews being on the ice for 3 5v5 shots in 23:38 TOI against Pinto this year isn't great.
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How much money does he have on it? Do you know?
 
The Senators are twelfth in the Eastern Conference in goalscoring, just behind the Penguins. But the Leafs forwards have a history of struggling to score in the postseason. Both have good numbers defensively. Both have good goaltending.

Feels like a series where if either team falls behind, it could be difficult to play catch up. Special teams will probably be a factor.

Think Toronto has to be patient and keep it simple. Keep pucks to the outside, keep Tkachuk and Batherson from getting clean scoring opportunities. Be patient, and hope your talent can bury it when they get the opportunity at the other end of the ice. Don't cheat for offense, throw the body at Sanderson and prepare for a war of attrition.
 
The Management said:
The Senators are twelfth in the Eastern Conference in goalscoring, just behind the Penguins. But the Leafs forwards have a history of struggling to score in the postseason. Both have good numbers defensively. Both have good goaltending.

Feels like a series where if either team falls behind, it could be difficult to play catch up. Special teams will probably be a factor.

Think Toronto has to be patient and keep it simple. Keep pucks to the outside, keep Tkachuk and Batherson from getting clean scoring opportunities. Be patient, and hope your talent can bury it when they get the opportunity at the other end of the ice. Don't cheat for offense, throw the body at Sanderson and prepare for a war of attrition.
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I mean really, how often do you get to type twelfth?
 
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TheBeastCoast said:
I don't know if this is a waste of time and it will just go into the void of meme's and shit posting but I will attempt to actually breakdown the series. I think the defense and goaltending on paper is mostly a wash. Ottawa prob has a better 1D...Toronto a bit better depth. Forwards, I think Toronto has more game breaking talent up front...better at generating offense at even strength then Ottawa is. But again...they have to actually do it. I do think Ottawa has a much better 3rd line. Toronto has a better PP...both teams have decidedly average penalty kills. I think a lot of this series is going to come down to whether Ottawa can generate offense at even strength and for the Leafs if their penalty kill can step up. I don't see there being many high scoring games. Coaching obviously will be a big X factor as well just have to see how that plays out.
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This is a pretty good analysis.

Chabot has found his game again after no longer being relied on to play 30+ minutes games (plus finding a really good complimentary partner for him, in Jensen) and has provided really good even strength production for the Sens on the back-end. Sanderson had a bit of a coming out year, taking over PP1 duties and looking pretty good doing it. But our third pairing could get taken advantage of - Kleven is a rookie, as is Matinpalo, and you guys will love playing against Hamonic :laugh: I am curious how the Leafs line up their D when fully healthy, as it seems like their top 6 has 4 lefties and 2 righties.

Toronto definitely has the edge in forwards. I love our third line with Greig-Pinto-Amadio, but it's been no secret that the top six has been inconsistent and struggled at even strength at times. Toronto's top six has a lot more game breaking ability with Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Knies and Nylander.

Our PK is worse than the stats let on. The diamond formation will get picked apart in the Leafs video room. I think the Leafs have a lot more potential at winning the special teams battle than the Sens do because of this, but hopefully we can get some timely PP goals.
 
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umma gumma said:
You missed the point entirely, but not surprised seeing as the word blank is in your handle.
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martinez 2.gif
 
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LivingRentFree said:
-12 my bad
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Struggled early on, had to play with Hamonic (by metrics the worst dman in the NHL), later admitted he gained more weight than he could handle in the offseason.

Since the halfway mark he’s been an absolute monster with Zub. Puts up top defensive numbers while getting extremely tough minutes with tough deployment, and he has broken out offensively putting up PPG numbers in the last 30 games.
 
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SlapJack said:
You don't live in a world outside of Toronto at all. Go ahead, quote that record since the TDL. Then look up Ottawa's.
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You're right I guess Ottawa is the better team and the favorite. With the Leafs being the Leafs should be an easy 4 game warmup for you guys
 
Korpse said:
I think you are underselling the Pinto line along with Sanderson-Zub, they've shown up against Toronto and done their job. Let's see if Toronto's guys can match them. Matthews being on the ice for 3 5v5 shots in 23:38 TOI against Pinto this year isn't great.
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xGA/60

The Pinto line: 1.94 (24th)

The Matthews line: 2.37 (62nd)

xGF/60

The Pinto line: 2.45 (100th)

The Matthews line: 3.32 (24th)

The Pinto line is a top line at defending, and scores at a 3rd line pace.

The Matthews line is a top line at scoring, and defends at a 2nd line pace.

I think this is a super interesting matchup, and I'm looking forward to seeing who comes out on top by the time the series is done.
 
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