A serious debate: The PP

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I hadn't seen this link before so if it was posted, I apologize, but I thought it was interesting and the PP deserved it's own thread. I haven't had enough time to go through this in detail and fully digest it and I'm sure there is plenty to pick apart in the analysis contained within, but thought it would be a good starting point to discuss the PP, what ails it, and how it can be improved in the future.

How Power Play Goals are Scored in the NHL - The Hockey Think Tank

The key "take-aways" from the data they looked at (some surprising, some not so surprising):

1. It’s really important to have a player on the ice at the backside position whose shot strikes fear in the other team. (this is the Ovi, Stamkos, Laine, etc.. spot).
2. Most power plays ran the same system (1-3-1)
3. More than 60% of the goals came from structure versus through chaos
4. Almost 60% of the goals scored were scored off a team’s first shot or first shot/rebound
5. Only 25% of the goals were off rebounds and 75% were off a pass.
6. 75% of the goals scored did NOT originate from a point shot.
7. 85% of the goals came from Forwards and only 15% came from Defensemen
8. On 75% of the goals scored, the puck went through the royal road. (The Royal Road is a line that goes directly through the middle of the ice from one net to the other.)
   
9. Over 75% of the goals scored with someone in the netminder’s comfort area, it proves how important traffic is to scoring goals
   
10. 40% of the goals were scored right in front of the net or within a foot or two of the crease area
11. It’s important to get shots off your stick fast. 50% of the goals were scored on a one-touch or a one-timer…with another 13% scored off tips
12. less than 10% of the goals were scored right off the draw. However, 35% of ALL power play goals scored originated from possession starting in the offensive zone after a faceoff.
    
13. The biggest gripe in a coach’s room when your power play isn’t doing well is this: “We don’t have good enough players.”
    The biggest gripe in the GM’s office when your power play isn’t doing well is this: “The coach isn’t using the players to the best of his ability.”

NET: you want to have a great shot in the "Ovi" spot, you need to open up passing lanes across the "royal road", you need to get a shot off quickly and have traffic in front of the goalie. Nothing earth shattering, but getting the puck to the point for a Faulk (or Hamilton) bomb isn't very effective.

DISCUSS!

Click to read more...

 

[Joe McGrath]

None of these numbers are at all surprising, at least to me.

ALmost all of the things that lead to goals on the PP the Canes are not good at.

 

[Chrispy]

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

None of these numbers are at all surprising, at least to me.

ALmost all of the things that lead to goals on the PP the Canes are not good at.

A couple of things surprised me a little, but you are right, most of them do not.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

The 1st PP is set-up like a 1-3-1, but it generally ends up being a 1-1-3. Teravainen and Aho are a bad mix in the half-wall spots. Replace Faulk with Hamilton and the 1st unit will continue to languish in mediocrity at best.

I want Necas in that left-half wall spot, not because I expect him to be Ovechkin-like there, but simply just to get away from that.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

The 1st PP is set-up like a 1-3-1, but it generally ends up being a 1-1-3. Teravainen and Aho are a bad mix in the half-wall spots. Replace Faulk with Hamilton and the 1st unit will continue to languish in mediocrity at best.

I want Necas in that left-half wall spot, not because I expect him to be Ovechkin-like there, but simply just to get away from that.

What about trying something more radical. Putting Faulk or Hamilton in the "Ovi" spot as they probably have two of the best (well, at least hardest) shots on the team?

 

[Unsustainable]

What about trying something more radical. Putting Faulk or Hamilton in the "Ovi" spot as they probably have two of the best (well, at least hardest) shots on the team?

Dougie in the Ovi spot makes the most sense, Aho playing the back 1, and Nino in the net front.

 

[Tryamw]

I hadn't seen this link before so if it was posted, I apologize, but I thought it was interesting and the PP deserved it's own thread. I haven't had enough time to go through this in detail and fully digest it and I'm sure there is plenty to pick apart in the analysis contained within, but thought it would be a good starting point to discuss the PP, what ails it, and how it can be improved in the future.

How Power Play Goals are Scored in the NHL - The Hockey Think Tank

The key "take-aways" from the data they looked at (some surprising, some not so surprising):

1. It’s really important to have a player on the ice at the backside position whose shot strikes fear in the other team. (this is the Ovi, Stamkos, Laine, etc.. spot).
2. Most power plays ran the same system (1-3-1)
3. More than 60% of the goals came from structure versus through chaos
4. Almost 60% of the goals scored were scored off a team’s first shot or first shot/rebound
5. Only 25% of the goals were off rebounds and 75% were off a pass.
6. 75% of the goals scored did NOT originate from a point shot.
7. 85% of the goals came from Forwards and only 15% came from Defensemen
8. On 75% of the goals scored, the puck went through the royal road. (The Royal Road is a line that goes directly through the middle of the ice from one net to the other.)
   
9. Over 75% of the goals scored with someone in the netminder’s comfort area, it proves how important traffic is to scoring goals
   
10. 40% of the goals were scored right in front of the net or within a foot or two of the crease area
11. It’s important to get shots off your stick fast. 50% of the goals were scored on a one-touch or a one-timer…with another 13% scored off tips
12. less than 10% of the goals were scored right off the draw. However, 35% of ALL power play goals scored originated from possession starting in the offensive zone after a faceoff.
    
13. The biggest gripe in a coach’s room when your power play isn’t doing well is this: “We don’t have good enough players.”
    The biggest gripe in the GM’s office when your power play isn’t doing well is this: “The coach isn’t using the players to the best of his ability.”

NET: you want to have a great shot in the "Ovi" spot, you need to open up passing lanes across the "royal road", you need to get a shot off quickly and have traffic in front of the goalie. Nothing earth shattering, but getting the puck to the point for a Faulk (or Hamilton) bomb isn't very effective.

DISCUSS!

Too much wordsing not enough effort Can't see what we're doing wrong.. (As I'm looking at this instead of our ill functioning Power play

Honestly. Thanks for sharing.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

[Mod]

What's really bad, is that they did suck more in 2 of the prior 3 seasons.

18/19: 17.8%
17/18: 18.4%
16/17: 17.7%
15/16: 16.8%

 

[HisIceness]

Score within 3 seconds like in the first Boston game. That prevents allowing short-handed opportunities.

Honestly I got nothing else to add other than try not to suck at it

 

[Svechhammer]

What's really bad, is that they did suck more in 2 of the prior 3 seasons.

18/19: 17.8%
17/18: 18.4%
16/17: 17.7%
15/16: 16.8%

Well, they are up for the AVN Lifetime Achievement Award for their contributions to the craft over the last decade.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

What about trying something more radical. Putting Faulk or Hamilton in the "Ovi" spot as they probably have two of the best (well, at least hardest) shots on the team?

I'd like to see that given an extended look, but I'm doubtful it will be. A 1st unit with both of them on it had success in the pre-season, but I can't recall Brind'Amour giving them a meaningful shift together the rest of the way until the 5-on-3 in Game 3 against Boston, despite ample opportunity to do so. There must be something about them together on the 1st unit that he doesn't like, be it 2 defensemen on a 1st PP or a 2nd PP without a scoring threat from the point. IDK.

I think Necas is the guy. The impetus for change is there; the Canes had the 2nd worst PP among Conference Finalists dating back to the inception of special teams efficiency tracking (Link). His role on the PP in Charlotte is precisely what would change the PP in Carolina at a structural level.

EDIT: Perhaps I misread your post. I'm not sure if either could stay closer to the dots in the circles in normal course of puck movement. There would be a gravitational-like pull back up high if a forward is at center point to protect against SHGs.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

I think Necas is the guy. The impetus for change is there; the Canes had the 2nd worst PP among Conference Finalists dating back to the inception of special teams efficiency tracking (Link). His role on the PP in Charlotte is precisely what would change the PP in Carolina at a structural level.

I also think Necas is the guy. Foot speed and release speed from the top of the circle. We need it, he seems to have it.

 

[Unsustainable]

We need a better PP to keep Aho saying PP

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I'd like to see that given an extended look, but I'm doubtful it will be. A 1st unit with both of them on it had success in the pre-season, but I can't recall Brind'Amour giving them a meaningful shift together the rest of the way until the 5-on-3 in Game 3 against Boston, despite ample opportunity to do so. There must be something about them together on the 1st unit that he doesn't like, be it 2 defensemen on a 1st PP or a 2nd PP without a scoring threat from the point. IDK.

I think Necas is the guy. The impetus for change is there; the Canes had the 2nd worst PP among Conference Finalists dating back to the inception of special teams efficiency tracking (Link). His role on the PP in Charlotte is precisely what would change the PP in Carolina at a structural level.

EDIT: Perhaps I misread your post. I'm not sure if either could stay closer to the dots in the circles in normal course of puck movement. There would be a gravitational-like pull back up high if a forward is at center point to protect against SHGs.

No, I was thinking using one of those guys in that spot and another D at the top (Bean, Slavin, Hamilton/Faulk), etc... I do think they are grooming Necas for that role based on his usage in the AHL, but not sure he has the shot.

 

[My Special Purpose]

More than 60% of the goals came from structure versus through chaos

This explains a lot.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

This explains a lot.

It explains why the Canes have 60% less PP goals than any other team in the league.

 

[The Stranger]

No, I was thinking using one of those guys in that spot and another D at the top (Bean, Slavin, Hamilton/Faulk), etc... I do think they are grooming Necas for that role based on his usage in the AHL, but not sure he has the shot.

We suck (Well, the Players, coaches, management, Ice Caretakers)

I had this same thought a while ago.

Ovi is the gold standard...but it's not just his shot...it is also his subtle movement to open up lanes and get in the best position to receive a pass. Still, Faulk and Hamilton are the best options on the Canes current roster. Stopping shoe-horning them into the PPQB role and let them simply be trigger-men.

 

[MinJaBen]

The biggest surprise for me from that article....that we weren't in the bottom eight teams:

The Top 8 and Bottom 8 teams based on PP% are below:
Top 8 – Pittsburgh, Toronto, Tampa Bay, Boston, Winnipeg, NY Islanders, Washington, Colorado
Bottom 8 – Edmonton, St. Louis, Chicago, Calgary, Ottawa, Arizona, Columbus, Detroit

 

[MinJaBen]

The biggest surprise for me from that article....that we weren't in the bottom eight teams:

Actually, the biggest surprise for me now that I finished reading the whole thing is that the Canes were used as an example of how to do something right.....

 

[Svechhammer]

The biggest surprise for me from that article....that we weren't in the bottom eight teams:

what's most amazing is we beat 2 of those Top 8 in the playoffs

 

[Svechhammer]

Actually, the biggest surprise for me now that I finished reading the whole thing is that the Canes were used as an example of how to do something right.....

That can't possibly be

The Braintrust™ doesn't know what its doing!

 

[My Special Purpose]

I think the Canes understand how goals are scored on the power play. However, as we've discussed way too many times, we didn't have the type talent necessary to run a prototypical power play this past season (no true QB, no true shooting talent). We did the best we could with our five best offensive players, but it was an odd mix. I actually think our regular-season power play overachieved, all things considered, mostly due to Aho being spectacular. Obviously, the whole thing went to shit in the playoffs, mostly due to Aho being not regular-season Aho. But at that point, it was much to late to try new things.

Regular season or playoffs, I don't think the problem was that we didn't run a typical power play. To me, the biggest issue was a young coach being deathly afraid of giving a young team more than they could handle, so he just stuck with the same guys and hoped for the best. On top of that, Roddy is a conservative coach. His No. 1 priority is not to get scored on. Being on the power play doesn't change this. He did run four forwards, one d-man, but choosing Faulk over Hamilton clearly showed (to me at least) that he was concerned with short-handed chances more than scoring.

Plus, his intention was clearly to bring Svech along very slowly this season, and the first power-play unit wasn't part of that plan, despite the fact that he's clearly the shooter we lacked. Bean may or may not be the QB we lacked, as well, but there's no way he was getting that shot under a rookie Brind'Amour. And Necas could have been the right-handed jolt we needed as well, but again, I think it was asking a lot for Brindy to work with four rookies this season and six may have sent him over the edge.

I also don't think it's automatic that we fix this, because our three best offensive players -- Aho, Teravainen, Svech -- all seem that they'd be most successful on the right side of the umbrella. Being able to put Necas on the left dot could help, but again ... Brindy. I'm still hoping for that big trade to change the mix up front.

 

[Roboturner913]

Talk about schemes and fit and needing more right hand shots and all that's fine, but I think a bigger problem is the players simply don't skate enough. They end up in the umbrella making umpteen passes back and forth with everybody standing in the same spot. I don't care what scheme you're using, if you're just standing around passing the puck waiting for an opening your PP is going to suck a 10 pound bag of donkey dicks.

 

[NotOpie]

Point #6 and Point #7 seem to have some, if not direct, correlation to puck movement. We simply do not open lanes, nor do we get the goaltender moving from side to side very much. We had a brief spell during our post New Years run where our passing seems quicker and crisper.....and less predictable....then it went back to the same old, same old.

I'm certainly not an expert, but shots that end up coming from the point almost always allow shooting lanes to close. Forwards score goals when they get the puck on their sticks in scoring position. One of the other things that Washington does well is open lanes for the cross-ice pass. Our deliberate puck handling allows those lanes to close.

In the end we are just too predictable. I would hope that in the off-season the coaching staff is working on multiple PP plays.