A SERIOUS DEBATE: Cam Ward

nobuddy

Registered User
Oct 13, 2010
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Really can't tell if you're being sarcastic here or not.

Cam Talbot's never put up numbers on a consistent basis at any level even remotely close to what he did the past two years as a backup in New York.

Dubnyk's numbers and Ward's numbers are nearly identical long-term.

Don't disagree at all on Hammond.

But seriously, it's like Cam shot everyone's dog on here or something given how often people take every possible chance to piss all over the guy.

talbot is a .931 in his only 56 career nhl games. it's still not a sufficient sample size to say that he's a .930 goalie, and there's very little chance that he is. but there's no reason to believe his expected save percentage shouldn't hover around .920. a starter's workload would probably bring him down to around that.

dubnyk is a career .914 and ward is a career .910, and that's including when ward was bordering on elite back when he was actually good.
 

Sens1Canes2

Registered User
May 13, 2007
10,673
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91.4% isn't very different than 91.0%. But I'm no statistician.

There's no sense arguing whether Ward's career .910 is "actually" valid.....because he was .910 this season. He's a .910 goalie.
 

FlyingSquirrels

Registered User
Jul 5, 2011
1,853
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For the first time in 5 years, I think Ward and EStaal are actually "tradeable" in an offseason. Only 1 year left makes it much easier to swallow those contracts. I won't be surprised at all if both are traded to teams that genuinely think they have a shot at the '16 Cup. Because we do not.

The 'Peg for Staal and CGY for Ward are my predictions.
 

DaveG

Noted Jerk
Apr 7, 2003
51,328
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talbot is a .931 in his only 56 career nhl games. it's still not a sufficient sample size to say that he's a .930 goalie, and there's very little chance that he is. but there's no reason to believe his expected save percentage shouldn't hover around .920. a starter's workload would probably bring him down to around that.

dubnyk is a career .914 and ward is a career .910, and that's including when ward was bordering on elite back when he was actually good.

Aside from Talbot's NCAA and AHL numbers that is. As I said, he's never put up stats even close to this on a consistent basis on either level. He was a .909 goalie in college, .916 in the AHL. I'd expect him to regress toward something between those two numbers if a team tried to use him as a starter. IE: Cam Ward numbers.


Dubnyk started his NHL career at age 23

Ward's numbers starting with his 23yo year? .913


I'm not saying that Dubnyk's not a good goalie, if we had been able to offload Ward a couple seasons back when Minnesota was showing interest I'd have loved to bring him in as a cheap backup option for Dobby. I'm saying more then anything we're short-selling Ward by saying guys like Talbot and Dubnyk are sooooooo much better then him. They're really not, they've shown nothing that says they should be considered to be so either.
 
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TheOllieC

cajun filet
Jul 12, 2013
13,499
3,044
Charlotte, NC
For the first time in 5 years, I think Ward and EStaal are actually "tradeable" in an offseason. Only 1 year left makes it much easier to swallow those contracts. I won't be surprised at all if both are traded to teams that genuinely think they have a shot at the '16 Cup. Because we do not.

The 'Peg for Staal and CGY for Ward are my predictions.

Why would Calgary want Ward?
 

nobuddy

Registered User
Oct 13, 2010
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Aside from Talbot's NCAA and AHL numbers that is. As I said, he's never put up stats even close to this on a consistent basis on either level. He was a .909 goalie in college, .916 in the AHL. I'd expect him to regress toward something between those two numbers if a team tried to use him as a starter. IE: Cam Ward numbers.


Dubnyk started his NHL career at age 23

Ward's numbers starting with his 23yo year? .913


I'm not saying that Dubnyk's not a good goalie, if we had been able to offload Ward a couple seasons back when Minnesota was showing interest I'd have loved to bring him in as a cheap backup option for Dobby. I'm saying more then anything we're short-selling Ward by saying guys like Talbot and Dubnyk are sooooooo much better then him. They're really not, they've shown nothing that says they should be considered to be so either.

They've shown nothing that says they should be considered better than Ward except for the fact that they carried their teams to playoff berths (less so in Talbot's case, but still)
 

CandyCanes

Caniac turned Jerkiac
Jan 8, 2015
7,232
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Nitpick time: I hate when people use GAA to measure goalies, it's entirely a team stat. It's like basing a pitchers worth on his W-L instead of his WHIP. Save% is usually a MUCH more accurate measure for a goalie IMHO.

That said Ward's Save% wasn't stellar either so your observation is still valid and I agree with the rest of the premise of that post.

I honestly think we're going to have some interesting debates next summer, most of our bad contracts (aside from Semin) are coming off the books. We drop north of 10 million in cap hit alone from Ward and Liles, and Eric comes off the books as well though I'm sure we'll re-sign him before then. Same with Khudobin. Only notable utes we have that we'll need to re-up are Lindholm, Rask, and Murphy, shouldn't be too big a deal unless someone really blows up in a big way.

I think all three will improve a bit, and will all cost a little bit of money to re-sign. The $10 mill we save from Liles and & Ward, I think 7-9m of it will be spent on locking up these three.

Lindholm could very well have a breakout year and could cost us 5-6m a season depending if he does so, if not he gets a 2 year bridge contract probably.
 

Ahl comets

Registered User
Jul 5, 2014
104
0
first off cam is not tradable with that contract. just let him play out the last season and move on. this team is not going to make the playoffs with a new goalie unless he measures 4 foot x 6 foot. i do not think you can blame the goalies completely with the team that is being put on the ice. weak defensively, plays soft, weak 3rd and 4th lines, what do you expect to happen?????? after this summers and next summers draft we will have some serious young talent stockpiled and large salaries off the books. personally i think semin needs to go and as much as i hate the idea, #53 needs a change of scenery............
 

Blueline Bomber

AI Generated Minnesota Wild
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Oct 31, 2007
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They've shown nothing that says they should be considered better than Ward except for the fact that they carried their teams to playoff berths (less so in Talbot's case, but still)

Less so in Dubnyk's case as well. Dubynk has played lights out for the Wild, there's no doubt about that. But they didn't need "lights out play" to make the playoffs, simply average goaltending.

Unfortunately, before Dubnyk, Minnesota goaltenders were well below average. .905% from Keumper and .887% from Backstrom.
 

Oogie Boogie

Registered User
Apr 9, 2011
23,949
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Who would we even pick up if we got rid of Ward.
Or who would people WANT to see get signed
 

The Stranger

Registered User
May 4, 2014
1,233
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cam is not a decent starting caliber goalie. even if hammond/lack/talbot/dubnyk regress from their current elite play, they'd have to regress a LONGGGGG way to even get in the same ballpark of how below average cam ward is.

When you make a talent assessment on a goalie, what variables/factors do you include and how much weight do you give to each?
 

NotOpie

"Puck don't lie"
Jun 12, 2006
9,292
17,884
North Carolina
Nitpick time: I hate when people use GAA to measure goalies, it's entirely a team stat. It's like basing a pitchers worth on his W-L instead of his WHIP. Save% is usually a MUCH more accurate measure for a goalie IMHO.

That said Ward's Save% wasn't stellar either so your observation is still valid and I agree with the rest of the premise of that post.

I honestly think we're going to have some interesting debates next summer, most of our bad contracts (aside from Semin) are coming off the books. We drop north of 10 million in cap hit alone from Ward and Liles, and Eric comes off the books as well though I'm sure we'll re-sign him before then. Same with Khudobin. Only notable utes we have that we'll need to re-up are Lindholm, Rask, and Murphy, shouldn't be too big a deal unless someone really blows up in a big way.

Hey Dave, you make a good point....just not a totally valid one. As a bit of a baseball afficianado and a fantasy baseball geek, I think WHIP is the most over-rated and unrepresentative statistic for a pitcher. In truth teams value winners highly. There are lots of great pitchers with mid to high 3.xx ERAs with WHIPs in the 1.3x range that just win.

You're right though about using GAA as the only indicator. But a lower GAA plus a reasonable save % tells us something else. However, factoring in wins and losses into the mix gives you the whole picture. Those workhorse starters that make the timely save to preserve 4-3 win are pretty darn valuable. That's really what we had with Cam in his prime. He was just a winner....stole us a few games, kept us in many more, and preserved the key win when we needed him to. All in front of a mostly average to bad defense.
 

What the Faulk

You'll know when you go
May 30, 2005
42,121
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North Carolina
At the same time, how many times did we complain about Ward giving up the "back breaking goal"? I will defend the fact that Ward at one point was a borderline top 10 goalie, but he's not that guy anymore. The problem, however, is that any replacement will probably either A) be expensive or B) have plenty of question marks of his own.
 

NotOpie

"Puck don't lie"
Jun 12, 2006
9,292
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North Carolina
At the same time, how many times did we complain about Ward giving up the "back breaking goal"? I will defend the fact that Ward at one point was a borderline top 10 goalie, but he's not that guy anymore. The problem, however, is that any replacement will probably either A) be expensive or B) have plenty of question marks of his own.

Which is why I said, sometimes he's better than adequate and others, not so much.

Right now Cam Ward is like Scott McGregor was for the O's (fans of the Birds will relate). He won a lot of games 3-1 or 6-4. If he got through the 1st two innings without giving up the offensive barrage, then he was likely to go 7 1/3 scattering 7 hits and leave with 2 outs with a man on 1st and 3rd. Often good enough to get the win, but usually with a bit of adventure. He would be coasting along, only to give up the 2 run homer....to me that's what Cam is. He's often okay, seemingly keeping you in the game, occasionally letting in the softie that either makes things interesting or erases a come back. He also makes that miracle save that preserves the 3-2 win.

To me, both of those guys are the definition of adequate....you'd replace them with somebody better if you could, but often the replacements leave something to be desired. That leaves you with a "devil you know" type of scenario.

So until there's a clearly superior replacement, I'm fine with riding a lower priced Cam until this team is truly a contender again.
 

The Stranger

Registered User
May 4, 2014
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So your goalie assessments are dominated by ES SV%.

How important do you believe team play in front of the goalie is to SV%?

Based on your criteria, Cam Talbot is a very good goalie (.930 ES SV%) while Ben Scrivens is very bad (.900 ES SV%). What would you speculate their respective SV% would be if they were to switch teams this year?

About a quarter of a goal per game when based on 30 shots per game and 60 GP per year. Heck the difference in 0.910 and 0.920 sounds like a lot, but it's "only" 18 goals over the course of the season.

Per Chris Boyle, the average "clean look" SV% is .949 while the average SV% on plays were the puck moves laterally in front of the net (forcing the goalie to make a positional adjustment) is 0.651.

So, let's say a team gives up 30 shots a game, 28 are clean looks and 2 are lateral plays. The average goalie (playing all 82 games) would allow 173 goals in the season with a SV% of .929.

Now if the team play changes and, on average, two more lateral plays per game are given up, the same goalie will allow 222 goals and carry a .909 SV%.
 
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What the Faulk

You'll know when you go
May 30, 2005
42,121
3,851
North Carolina
If you're saying there's more to evaluating goaltending than ES SV%, I completely agree. The team in front of a goalie is going to have a big impact on his numbers, and I'd like to see SV% broken down by type of shot. Ex, transition, rebound etc. I know we have adjusted SV% now, but I still think there's more than could be brought to the table. Boyle is a good follow for this
 

Finlandia WOAT

js7.4x8fnmcf5070124
May 23, 2010
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I will say that cam's style of goaltending makes me think that he will be an excellent goalie coach.
 

Boom Boom Apathy

I am the Professor. Deal with it!
Sep 6, 2006
48,406
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I will say that cam's style of goaltending makes me think that he will be an excellent goalie coach.

I think it's pretty much a given that once he retires, we'll see the following announcement:

Former Hurricane Cam Ward has joined the organization, taking the position of Director of Goaltender Development, a newly formed position. A first-round selection (25th overall) of the Carolina Hurricanes in the 2002 NHL Entry Draft, Ward played over 600 career games with the Carolina Hurricanes and won the Stanley Cup as a member of the Hurricanes in 2006. "We’re very happy to have Cam back in our organization," said GM Ron Francis. "He’s always had a mind for the game and is just a great hockey guy."

Ward will be joining former Hurricane teammates Cory Stillman and Glen Wesley as a Director of player development.
 

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