Salary Cap: A Realistic Look at the Isles Cap Situation (Why I want to trade Dobson)

[impaaaaaact]

Ok, figured I'd organize my thoughts into one place here - writing quickly on a break from work. The Isles have 8 regulars in need of new contracts in the offseason: Dobson, Nelson, Palmieri, Romanov, Tsyplakov, Holmstrom, Reilly, and Wahlstrom. Let's say for argument's sake that they want to bring them all back aside from the last two. Nelson and Palmieri get Mayfield-esque deals taking a slight discount to stick around, and they lock up Dobson and Romanov long term. I think those deals would be ballpark in this range:

Dobson 8x8
Romanov 7x6
Nelson 6x5
Palmieri 5x4
Tsyplakov 3x3
Holmstrom 2x2

Keeping George as the 3LD and putting Hutton, Danny Nelson and Eiserman in there at min salary to fill out the roster, that brings the team to $96.988M, or about 5.5M above the projected cap for next year. Keep in mind that this would be the equivalent of "running it back" - no additions to the roster aside from elevating prospects. Because that's above the cap, we would actually need to either let someone walk or trade a couple of guys to even be able to "bring it back"... so, essentially you're bringing back a worse version of a roster that isn't competitive.

This was the year that they put all their eggs into the basket for - It's the last year of Dobson and Romanov's ELC, and they still have Holmstrom and Tsyplakov around league min. Unfortunately they got hit with a ton of injuries, and while Sorokin has been keeping them in games they'll probably be fighting for their lives to make the last wildcard spot. Lou has to look at what is stacked against him here and go the route that many of the fans have been calling for for a long time - a retool of some sort... and we happen to be in the perfect scenario to get it done between this season and the next. Most of the team is locked up in NMCs, but we have a few very valuable players that aren't.

A lot has been made of what Nelson and Palmieri could fetch at the deadline. Nelson is on pace for his fourth straight 30 goal season - he's the type of player that puts a contender over the top, especially when slotted in as a 3C. Palmieri is on pace to follow up last year's 30 goal season with another. I think if you retain on both of these guys you get a first +. But my thought is, why stop there?

I think there's merit in looking into trading Dobson or Romanov after this season, with my preference being Dobson. I made a post on the main board, most fans are salivating at him despite me being extremely honest about his defensive shortcomings. If after 6 seasons you decide that you have seen enough, you deal him now - at the top of his value. You get the equivalent of 3-4 firsts from a team that has been stockpiling talent and feels ready to take another step - Canadiens, Sharks, Blue Jackets.

Between dealing those 3 players, you can completely rebuild the organizational depth and change the culture of the team. Let the team be bad the next season and trade Lee and Pageau at the deadline. This will basically give you a clean slate for 2026 with an additional 9 or 10 assets that you wouldn't have had otherwise. The alternative is basically running it back next season minus Varlamov and Pageau... I know what I'm hoping for

Click to read more...

 

[Big L]

I think your premise is wrong. Only keep Dobson, Romanov, Tsyplakov, and Holmstrom.

Now redo your numbers. I’ll wait.

 

[impaaaaaact]

I think your premise is wrong. Only keep Dobson, Romanov, Tsyplakov, and Holmstrom.

Now redo your numbers. I’ll wait.

Leaves about 3.5M in cap space to replace 65-ish goals. Not ideal.

 

[icelander25]

I agree the the main idea that we need to move Nelson and Palmieri, but lets take one step at a time. Those will likely be the only two moved during the season. I highly doubt Lou trades Lee or Pageau, and especially not Dobson, mid-season. Ideally in either the Nelson or Palmieri deal (most likely Nelson) we get a young player who we can plug into the 2RW next season - could also be 2C but nobody's moving those. Ideally (maybe not realistically) we'd trade Nelson for someone like Jack Quinn who's been struggling but has shown he can definitely fit in a 2RW role. I also think splitting up Barzal and Horvat next season makes a tremendous amount of sense. They're both play drivers and we can surround Barzal with capable players that we weren't able to years ago, while also letting Horvat cook. I also don't know how realistic bringing Eiserman up is but sure, we'll include him for this exercise. The lineup I'm looking at is

Duclair-Barzal-Tsyplakov
Lee-Horvat-Quinn
Eiserman-Pageau-Holmstrom
(Enforcer)-Cizikas-(Replacement)

Romanov-Dobson
Pelech-Pulock
George-Mayfield

I really don't mind this lineup but it really relies on 1st, Eiserman being called up and 2nd that he actually sticks around the entire season (most likely not).
One last thing, from my perspective I think your numbers are slightly off. Dobson will definitely get at least $8.5 from Isles and I'd still pay that, a young RD is incredibly valuable. I know we could get a haul but that signals a full rebuild and I'm not about that. If other teams are willing to pay him $10 + then be my guest but otherwise I'd pay up to $9 mil for him. Also, I think Romanov gets a Pelech type deal, so I'd prefer 6x7 for him. Holmstrom still barely crosses $1 mil and without Nelson and Palmieri, that'd leave us with about $2.5-3.5 including a bench. I personally think Eiserman goes back to school, so that goes to 3LW, but 2026 was always the year this comes together as you said. Eiserman can go to the 2LW and we get off the Pageau and Lee contracts. Lou has to focus on a year/goal to hone in on because going from mid to worse-mid each year will truly destroy the team. We're lucky we still have an out with Nelson & Palmieri cause otherwise, this team would be in the bin. Do the right thing Lou.

 

[impaaaaaact]

I agree the the main idea that we need to move Nelson and Palmieri, but lets take one step at a time. Those will likely be the only two moved during the season. I highly doubt Lou trades Lee or Pageau, and especially not Dobson, mid-season. Ideally in either the Nelson or Palmieri deal (most likely Nelson) we get a young player who we can plug into the 2RW next season - could also be 2C but nobody's moving those. Ideally (maybe not realistically) we'd trade Nelson for someone like Jack Quinn who's been struggling but has shown he can definitely fit in a 2RW role. I also think splitting up Barzal and Horvat next season makes a tremendous amount of sense. They're both play drivers and we can surround Barzal with capable players that we weren't able to years ago, while also letting Horvat cook. I also don't know how realistic bringing Eiserman up is but sure, we'll include him for this exercise. The lineup I'm looking at is

Duclair-Barzal-Tsyplakov
Lee-Horvat-Quinn
Eiserman-Pageau-Holmstrom
(Enforcer)-Cizikas-(Replacement)

Romanov-Dobson
Pelech-Pulock
George-Mayfield

I really don't mind this lineup but it really relies on 1st, Eiserman being called up and 2nd that he actually sticks around the entire season (most likely not).
One last thing, from my perspective I think your numbers are slightly off. Dobson will definitely get at least $8.5 from Isles and I'd still pay that, a young RD is incredibly valuable. I know we could get a haul but that signals a full rebuild and I'm not about that. If other teams are willing to pay him $10 + then be my guest but otherwise I'd pay up to $9 mil for him. Also, I think Romanov gets a Pelech type deal, so I'd prefer 6x7 for him. Holmstrom still barely crosses $1 mil and without Nelson and Palmieri, that'd leave us with about $2.5-3.5 including a bench. I personally think Eiserman goes back to school, so that goes to 3LW, but 2026 was always the year this comes together as you said. Eiserman can go to the 2LW and we get off the Pageau and Lee contracts. Lou has to focus on a year/goal to hone in on because going from mid to worse-mid each year will truly destroy the team. We're lucky we still have an out with Nelson & Palmieri cause otherwise, this team would be in the bin. Do the right thing Lou.

Why are the sabres trading a 23 year old for Brock Nelson? And why are we trading Brock Nelson for Quinn? And again, that lineup is basically running it back minus 40ish goals depending on how Eiserman plays.

 

[icelander25]

Bro how are both teams gonna decline that trade when it’s exactly what each team needs. Plus it was just an example, plug in any 21-24 semi-struggling prospect you want. And once again we have to focus on 2026. Not a single team can turn around quick when they keep pushing off the inevitable. In 2026 we’d get a seasoned Eiserman plus $12 mil from Pageau & Lee, plus another $4 mil with cap expansion. That’s taking this 2025 team, and leaving all the old pieces behind except with $16 + mil cap space in hand. Personally I think that’s the best plan of action. There’s a complete rebuild (don’t want), going all in once again (would be disastrous for the future), and then there’s taking 1 year off, with a high 2024 & 2025 pick to go with along it. That’s easily my choice

 

[impaaaaaact]

Bro how are both teams gonna decline that trade when it’s exactly what each team needs. Plus it was just an example, plug in any 21-24 semi-struggling prospect you want. And once again we have to focus on 2026. Not a single team can turn around quick when they keep pushing off the inevitable. In 2026 we’d get a seasoned Eiserman plus $12 mil from Pageau & Lee, plus another $4 mil with cap expansion. That’s taking this 2025 team, and leaving all the old pieces behind except with $16 + mil cap space in hand. Personally I think that’s the best plan of action. There’s a complete rebuild (don’t want), going all in once again (would be disastrous for the future), and then there’s taking 1 year off, with a high 2024 & 2025 pick to go with along it. That’s easily my choice

Sabres are about to restart their rebuild, I don’t think that they want Nelson. I think we can get a non-struggling prospect for him is all I’m saying. But I’m with you on the rest of it for sure

 

[YearlyLottery]

I do not agree with keeping Palmieri and Nelson. They will both likely start to decline at the same time of these long term deals (Palmieri earlier). I think as of now you keep Tsyplakov at a nice deal, trade Palmieri, and if Nelson is not willing to take a deal that you like you trade him too for additional assets.

You can wheel and deal these assets for whatever you want in the offseason, but the one thing it won't do is saddle you with more contracts that you cannot move the second you sign them.

Signing Palmieri and Nelson to long term deals is like buying a new car. The second you drive off the lot you have already lost value.

 

[impaaaaaact]

I do not agree with keeping Palmieri and Nelson. They will both likely start to decline at the same time of these long term deals (Palmieri earlier). I think as of now you keep Tsyplakov at a nice deal, trade Palmieri, and if Nelson is not willing to take a deal that you like you trade him too for additional assets.

You can wheel and deal these assets for whatever you want in the offseason, but the one thing it won't do is saddle you with more contracts that you cannot move the second you sign them.

Signing Palmieri and Nelson to long term deals is like buying a new car. The second you drive off the lot you have already lost value.

Agreed, but we have to replace them if we let them go too. There’s not going to be cap to do that without letting go of another player, which just digs you deeper. All signs point towards needing a prospect to step up and we don’t really have any, especially not at center.

When Nelson goes that will be the biggest need, and barring bringing in one by trading Dobson or Romanov it seems very likely that the middling team we have this year will be taking a step back next year.

 

[doublechili]

I have a feeling people thinking about what kind of young players and/or draft picks we're going to get when we trade Nelson and/or Palmieri... are going to be very disappointed. My guess is that they re-sign for 3-4 years or they walk for nothing. In the latter case, maybe it's because we sign Marner to replace their combined cap hits, which is exactly the kind of thing they need to do. But Lou ain't trading away top 6 forwards at the TDL unless the team is mathematically eliminated from playoff competition.

 

[impaaaaaact]

I have a feeling people thinking about what kind of young players and/or draft picks we're going to get when we trade Nelson and/or Palmieri... are going to be very disappointed. My guess is that they re-sign for 3-4 years or they walk for nothing. In the latter case, maybe it's because we sign Marner to replace their combined cap hits, which is exactly the kind of thing they need to do. But Lou ain't trading away top 6 forwards at the TDL unless the team is mathematically eliminated from playoff competition.

We better stop getting all these loser points and start losing in regulation then

 

[YearlyLottery]

Agreed, but we have to replace them if we let them go too. There’s not going to be cap to do that without letting go of another player, which just digs you deeper. All signs point towards needing a prospect to step up and we don’t really have any, especially not at center.

When Nelson goes that will be the biggest need, and barring bringing in one by trading Dobson or Romanov it seems very likely that the middling team we have this year will be taking a step back next year.

I actually do not think you have to bring someone in immediately if you trade them. You will have additional assets and prospects theoretically. Also, what would dig us a deeper hole? Signing both of these guys for another 5 years or just trading them now?

Just to reiterate I am FINE with keeping Nelson (especially with Lee and Pageau coming up the following year). We likely have to take a step back at some point before taking a step forward. Even if this team is in playoff contention I think you have to trade Palmieri at the deadline and just move forward.

Go take a chance on a guy like Ehlers or Granlund. The production may be similar, the talent may be similar, but it will shake up the room and add more speed to the lineup.

I believe you will continue to see this team take steps back the more they continue to bring this core back.

1.) trade Palmieri and keep Nelson (but be willing to trade him too)
2.) trade Lee/Pageau in the offseason with one year left
3.) sign Ehlers/Granlund
4.) trade one of Barzal/Dobson for multiple pieces in return
5.) you see where this team is but you will have more assets, less huge contracts, and way more of a fresh look while still keeping your core in tact.