A Look at the Leafs Goalie Performance.

[Cor]

Please Note; This is to look at and discuss the OVERALL goaltending of the team. I will continue to update the chart as the season progresses.

Please Note V2: If you aren't a fan of the xGA stat. That is fine. No need to mention it. Just ignore the thread

So, I have been working on a bit of a dive into the Leafs goalie performance, mixed with the Leafs defensive performance.

I should mention, I don't want to provide any sort of opinions in this OP. This isn't meant to necessarily target Freddy, I think there's enough of that. However, goaltending has been the biggest factor this season, so it's interested to break down just what sort of chances our team is giving up, versus what is ending up in the net.

The best way to look at this, currently, is too look at the quality of chances the Leafs are allowed in a game (xGA) vs the amount of goals are goalies are letting in. The numbers below are individual games starting most recent at the top, and moving back towards the start of this season.

One other thing I will mention.

When you look at Freddy's "bad" starts, the average xGA allowed is 2.48, with an average Goals Allowed being 4. However, when you look at Freddy's "good" starts, the average xGA allowed is actually HIGHER, at 2.74, with an average goals allowed being 2.

Freddy:
Good - 9
Bad - 10
Expected - 5

Campbell:
Good - 4
Bad - 0
Expected - 0

Hutch:
Good - 2
Bad - 2
Expected - 2

Total:
Good - 15
Bad - 12
Expected - 7

Click to read more...

 

[Mr Hockey]

Andersen plays with the pressure of being a #1 and expected to win every game ... not the case with a back up .... let Jack take over the #1 for a while before comparing

 

[Primary Assist]

Andersen plays with the pressure of being a #1 and expected to win every game ... not the case with a back up .... let Jack take over the #1 for a while before comparing

True, but Campbell is playing to stay relevant as a viable NHLer and Hutch is literally playing to keep his career alive. There's plenty of pressure there too, especially since neither guy has 25 million in career earnings like Fred to fall back on.

I do think there are some score effects where teams tend to play tighter defensive hockey when a backup is in net, but xGA should largely account for that. The sample size is small, but both the eye test and the spreadsheet test strongly favor Jack.

I definitely agree with your second point. If Keefe is actually rewarding ice times to players who deserve it, then I have to think Campbell gets to keep the net for at least a few more games to give management a better look. And I say that as a big time Freddy fan

 

[embracedbias]

I would like to know precisely how long Andersen has been playing poorly. I read somewhere that it's been the last 100 games. Has someone already put the work into figuring this out? I can only be bothered to write this post

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Please Note; This is to look at and discuss the OVERALL goaltending of the team. I will continue to update the chart as the season progresses.

Please Note V2: If you aren't a fan of the xGA stat. That is fine. No need to mention it. Just ignore the thread

So, I have been working on a bit of a dive into the Leafs goalie performance, mixed with the Leafs defensive performance.

I should mention, I don't want to provide any sort of opinions in this OP. This isn't meant to necessarily target Freddy, I think there's enough of that. However, goaltending has been the biggest factor this season, so it's interested to break down just what sort of chances our team is giving up, versus what is ending up in the net.

The best way to look at this, currently, is too look at the quality of chances the Leafs are allowed in a game (xGA) vs the amount of goals are goalies are letting in. The numbers below are individual games starting most recent at the top, and moving back towards the start of this season.

One other thing I will mention.

When you look at Freddy's "bad" starts, the average xGA allowed is 2.48, with an average Goals Allowed being 4. However, when you look at Freddy's "good" starts, the average xGA allowed is actually HIGHER, at 2.74, with an average goals allowed being 2.

Freddy:
Good - 9
Bad - 10
Expected - 5

Campbell:
Good - 4
Bad - 0
Expected - 0

Hutch:
Good - 2
Bad - 2
Expected - 2

Total:
Good - 15
Bad - 12
Expected - 7

I’ll just be watching this thread. Don’t don’t do the adv stats deal.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I wonder when Andersen groin injury started as the vast majority of his 'bad' rated games are fairly recently.

Definitely an interesting analysis though

 

[Notsince67]

I wonder when Andersen groin injury started as the vast majority of his 'bad' rated games are fairly recently.

Definitely an interesting analysis though

I used to catch cold around test time when I was a kid. Edit...and there is a metric called quality start. It started at the beginning g of the year

 

[bonjovi0308]

When your starter was outdueled by the either Columbus goalie, you know you have a problem

 

[Teeder Keon]

I would like to know precisely how long Andersen has been playing poorly. I read somewhere that it's been the last 100 games. Has someone already put the work into figuring this out? I can only be bothered to write this post

Since his first game with the Leafs

 

[Wafflewhipper]

I used to catch cold around test time when I was a kid. Edit...and there is a metric called quality start. It started at the beginning g of the year

Freddy missed the memo

 

[Aus34Matt]

So all of the performance issues must be something related to the Leafs goalie development program. Instead of improving we ruin every good goalie who comes here.

Regular season Price sucked, Bergevin fired his goalie coach and look how Carey Price is performing again.