A Little Thunder, a Little Lightning : TBL(14-10-2) @ CGY(14-10-5) 7pm MST SN1

[super6646]

Yes that was my point, that Tampa built that team with the sole purpose of winning that game against us yesterday.

My point definitely isn’t the second best offense in the NHL is doing it without a single one of their forwards being a first round pick by them, and that with Hedman out last night they didn’t have a single skater who fits that criteria.

I mean, you can find counterexamples to fit any narrative you like if you want. Nobody denies that; you can go back to the mid-1990s all the way to the late-2000s and see the DRWs using that model. However, the best chance of finding the talent we desperately need is at the top of the draft.

That is unless Rory Kerins becomes the next Brayden Point ofc (I've been talking about him as a sleeper for a while and joked that he is our best centre prospect, but still).

In all seriousness, I think Calgary has the makings of a great second line with their prospects (Honzek-Zary-Coronato could be fun to watch in the future), but they need the high end talent desperately. I'd love if we could get those with a bunch of 3rd and 4th round picks, but that's not how she usually goes.

 

[Yepthatsme]

I mean, you can find counterexamples to fit any narrative you like if you want. Nobody denies that; you can go back to the mid-1990s all the way to the late-2000s and see the DRWs using that model. However, the best chance of finding the talent we desperately need is at the top of the draft.

That is unless Rory Kerins becomes the next Brayden Point ofc (I've been talking about him as a sleeper for a while and joked that he is our best centre prospect, but still).

In all seriousness, I think Calgary has the makings of a great second line with their prospects (Honzek-Zary-Coronato could be fun to watch in the future), but they need the high end talent desperately. I'd love if we could get those with a bunch of 3rd and 4th round picks, but that's not how she usually goes.

Unironically, through smart picks and trades is how it usually goes. Let’s look at the top 10 offenses in the league, and how they got their top 3 producers:

Washington:
Free agent
Late 1st
3rd round

Tampa
2nd round
3rd round
Trade

Carolina
Mid 1st round
2nd round
Trade

Winnipeg
Mid 1st
Top ten pick
Mid 1st

Florida
Trade
Trade
2nd overall

Columbus (who knew)
Top 10 pick
2nd round
Free agent

Vancouver
Top 10 pick
Top 10 pick
Trade

Dallas
Free agent
Free agent
Trade

So 5 of the examples from the best teams came from top 10 picks with only 2 of the teams being led by theirs (ironically both defenseman). Only 2 examples of a top 5 pick. A good offensive team is statistically much more likely to find their top offensive guys through trades and free agency or steals in the draft.

 

[Backlund]

Unironically, through smart picks and trades is how it usually goes. Let’s look at the top 10 offenses in the league, and how they got their top 3 producers:

Washington:
Free agent
Late 1st
3rd round

Tampa
2nd round
3rd round
Trade

Carolina
Mid 1st round
2nd round
Trade

Winnipeg
Mid 1st
Top ten pick
Mid 1st

Florida
Trade
Trade
2nd overall

Columbus (who knew)
Top 10 pick
2nd round
Free agent

Vancouver
Top 10 pick
Top 10 pick
Trade

Dallas
Free agent
Free agent
Trade

So 5 of the examples from the best teams came from top 10 picks with only 2 of the teams being led by theirs (ironically both defenseman). Only 2 examples of a top 5 pick. A good offensive team is statistically much more likely to find their top offensive guys through trades and free agency or steals in the draft.

It's 30 games into the season. Trying to build a plan around the teams scoring the most right now is idiotic. The sample size is too small to call them the best teams. You need to use cup winners or teams that have made the finals but you know doing that will invalidate your argument.

 

[super6646]

Unironically, through smart picks and trades is how it usually goes. Let’s look at the top 10 offenses in the league, and how they got their top 3 producers:

Washington:
Free agent
Late 1st
3rd round

Tampa
2nd round
3rd round
Trade

Carolina
Mid 1st round
2nd round
Trade

Winnipeg
Mid 1st
Top ten pick
Mid 1st

Florida
Trade
Trade
2nd overall

Columbus (who knew)
Top 10 pick
2nd round
Free agent

Vancouver
Top 10 pick
Top 10 pick
Trade

Dallas
Free agent
Free agent
Trade

So 5 of the examples from the best teams came from top 10 picks with only 2 of the teams being led by theirs (ironically both defenseman). Only 2 examples of a top 5 pick. A good offensive team is statistically much more likely to find their top offensive guys through trades and free agency or steals in the draft.

Doesn't seem all that surprising. After all, team turnover is common in the league and cores can be in a state of flux. And yes, trades and good drafting are a great way to supplement a core once you get those foundation pieces to get to the finish line.

But if I go through that list of teams:

Washington: Ovechkin and Carlsson are those two foundation long term pieces. Both first-round draft picks. You can go one for one there, but Ovechkin is right there in that top 3 w/o injuries.

Tampa: I can concede this, but tbf Stamkos in his prime wasn't a slouch either. Hedman isn't in that top 3 either, but he is still the foundation for their defense.

Carolina: Again there is a case here as well, but Svechnikov and Jaris are 4 and 5 and are both high first rounders.

Winnipeg: Scheifle, Ehlers, Connor, Morrisey are the foundation imo: 3 high first rounders, 1 mid-first rounder.

Florida: Again you can make the case, but the foundation was there with Ekblad and Barkov and Huberdeau (which turned into Tkachuk).

Columbus: Werenski leads the back end, and Fantilli/Johnson are the future stars up front. All high picks. Monahan and Marchenko are important too, but again they are pieces that are going to supplement that core if they are successful. Sillinger as well.

Vancouver: Pettersson/Miller is the foundation at fwd and Hughes is the foundation at defense. Miller was brought in once it looked like Vancouver was ready to contend.

Dallas: Kind of a mishmash; yes they have Miro, but I agree a lot of the foundation building came from moves other than high drafting.


I think what you are demonstrating is that teams that are looking to contend or ready to do so will use other tools besides drafting to get the extra pieces to get over the top, and I don't disagree with that. But Calgary still needs that foundation piece or two, especially up front. We just (probably) do not have #1C or guaranteed first line blue chip forward in the ranks right now. Some great pieces, but not a bonafide star in the making.

I think you could argue that Tampa, Dallas, and Carolina did it differently from the others, but I think your model underscores the importance of getting those key pieces through the draft first.