95snipes midseason NCAA/USHL top 25

[95snipes]

Thought with the top prospects game yesterday, it would be a good time to post this.

		Projection	Skating​	Shot​	Hands​	Hockey Sense​	Compete​	Defensive Game​
1​	Macklin Celebrini	Franchise Player	4.25​	4.5​	4​	5​	4.5​	4.5​
2​	Cole Eiserman	1st Line Forward	3.75​	5​	3.75​	3​	3​	2.5​
3​	Trevor Connelly	1st Line Forward upside	4​	2.5​	4​	4​	3.25​	2.5​
4​	EJ Emery	Top 3 defenseman	4​	2.75​	2.5​	3​	3.5​	4​
5​	Zeev Buium	2nd pairing defenseman	3.25​	3​	3.5​	3.5​	3.5​	3​
6​	Artyom Levshunov	1st pair tools / bust potential	3.5​	4​	3​	2.5​	2​	2​
7​	Sacha Boisvert	Number 2 Center upside	3​	3.75​	3.5​	3​	3.5​	3.5​
8​	Michael Hage	Top 6 forward	3.5​	3​	3.5​	4​	3​	3​
9​	Matvei Gridin	Top 6 winger	3.25​	3.75​	4.25​	4.5​	2.5​	2.5​
10​	Kamil Bednarik	Middle 6 center	3.25​	3.5​	3​	3.5​	3.25​	3.75​
11​	Teddy Stiga	Top 6 winger upside	3​	3.5​	3​	4.5​	3​	3.5​
12​	John Mustard	Top 6 winger upside	3.25​	4​	3.25​	3​	3​	3​
13​	Tory Pitner	Bottom 4 defenseman	3​	3​	2.75​	3​	4​	3.5​
14​	Lucas Van Vliet	Top 6 forward upside	4​	4​	3.5​	3​	3​	3​
15​	Will Skahan	Bottom 4 defenseman	3.5​	2.5​	2.5​	2.5​	4​	3.5​
16​	Cole Hutson	Bottom 4 defenseman	2.75​	3​	3​	5​	3​	2.5​
17​	Christian Humphreys	Middle 6 forward	2.75​	3​	3.25​	3.5​	3​	3​
18​	Elliott Groenewold	Bottom pair defenseman	3.25​	2.5​	2.5​	2.75​	3​	3​
19​	Kaden Shahan	Middle 6 winger upside	3.25​	4​	3​	3​	3.25​	3​
20​	Max Plante	Middle 6 winger upside	2.5​	3​	3​	4​	3​	3​
21​	Austin Baker	Bottom 6 forward	3.75​	3​	2.75​	3​	3​	3​
22​	Kuzma Voronin	Middle 6 winger upside	3.5​	2.75​	3​	3​	3.5​	3.25​
23​	Jake Fisher	Bottom 6 forward	3​	3​	2.75​	3​	3​	3​
24​	Mac Swanson	Top 6 winger or bust	2.75​	3​	3.5​	5​	3​	2.5​
25​	Luke Osburn	Bottom pair defenseman	3.25​	3​	2.75​	3.5​	3​	3​

5 indicates elite NHL and 1 indicates not NHL caliber.

Opinions

• None of this is set in stone. I've seen some players more than others. This will change by year's end.
• I think everyone in the top 15 are good bets to get NHL games.
• The gap between Celebrini and whoever goes #2 pick might be bigger than it was with Bedard last year.
• Connelly is strictly on ice. I can't speak to his character or any of the off ice stuff.
• Emery is what every contender wants every trade deadline. A right shot, shut down defenseman. Give him 2 summers with an NHL power skating coach and time to grow into his body and you have a potential 23 minute lock down defenseman. Not much offense, but he can make simple reads with the puck and can complement a more offensively oriented puck mover.
• Buium opened my eyes over the summer at the world junior summer showcase. It looked then that he took a step from the U18's. That said, I think Buium gets a touch overrated due to the points he's been putting up this season. DU averages 5.18 goals per game, .63 more than anyone else in the country. Yes Buium is part of the reason for this, but he wouldn't be putting up the same stats at most other schools. As a prospect, he's average size, mobile, but an average-ish skater. When you look at the size/skating combo, you really need to believe that the offense is high end to take him as high as he's been ranked at some places. I don't believe the offense is high end. I see a 2nd pairing puck mover.
• I'm keeping an open mind on Levshunov. For most of this season he's been more of a liability than someone I'd want on my team. He could move up or down in a material way depending on how he plays for the rest of the season.
• Boisvert could be a late season riser or an off the board surprise pick on draft day. Centers always go higher than expected. Boisvert is projectable, has legit skill, and has the frame to support ~20 more pounds at his full playing weight. He's pacing to score goals at roughly the same rate as guys like Boeser and Connor did in their draft years.
• I have 2 re-entries in Shahan and Fisher. I'm not sure if either of them will get drafted this time around, but I've been impressed with them. If my team took them in the 5th round last year, I'd be happy with what I've seen of them this year.

I don't have any goalies ranked at this point. I'd have interest in Nicholas Kempf, John Parsons, Caleb Heil, and Mikhail Yegorov. I'm not convinced any of them will be NHL starters. Need to see more of Yegorov.

Click to read more...

 

[TLEH]

I have Levshunov at 3 in my overall list but I definitely agree with your assessment of the player. My ranking of him has to do with his ceiling and the fact that I think a lot of players in the Top 10 this year all have warts that could make them not reach their ceiling.

I like Emerys profile a lot but I just don't see the offensive upside that would get him to be drafted over someone like Levshunov, at the same time I almost expect Emery to be a better NHLer.

 

[Frk It]

I find it a bit hard to believe Levshunov and Buium have those tool grades but yet are having the types of seasons they are.

And just to be clear, are you saying you would rank and pick Emery over both of them?

 

[57special]

I don't think I've seen anyone rank Emery above Levshunov, or Buium, for that matter. I agree that Buium playing on Denver might distort his stats, but he also passes the eye test, for me. Would you also put Emery above Dickinson?

Not saying you're wrong, and appreciate someone's opinion based on their own viewing.

 

[95snipes]

I find it a bit hard to believe Levshunov and Buium have those tool grades but yet are having the types of seasons they are.

And just to be clear, are you saying you would rank and pick Emery over both of them?

Yes. I'd have Emery and Buium in a similar range, but if the draft were tomorrow, I'd prefer Emery all else equal. If you're starving for a puckmover I'd be ok going Buium. I think in today's game, players of Emery's skillset are harder to find than Buium's.

For Emery, quick anecdote, last year I watched all prospects and made a year end list, but felt I had B knowledge on a bunch of prospects. This year I wanted higher conviction on a smaller number of prospects so I've been only watching USHL/NCAA. I say this because last year for Tom Willander, I made a post basically saying I would take him top 15 when he wasn't on any 1st round list. It's the same thing with Emery this year. He's not as 'mistake free' as Willander was, but Emery is bigger and more athletic. You're projecting to similar roles and I think you can argue Emery has more upside. You win in the playoffs with the Willanders and Emerys of the world.

It's clear Buium took a step this year. If there wasn't a September cut off, I'm not even sure if he's a 1st round pick last year. He'll clearly be a 1st rounder this year, but top 10 would be real rich for me. He's an offensive defenseman with average size and average skating. He's probably about 6'0 even. His skating is fairly elusive and he's good on his edges, but he's not dynamic. He's not fast. Trust be told, I didn't love his hockey sense when he was with the U18s. Either I was wrong on that or he's figured it out, because this year he's excelled in transition moving the puck up ice. Good puckmover, but I don't you think you should be drafting him thinking your getting a 70 point defenseman. Happy to be wrong on that. Defensively he's ok. I think he competes hard which helps to make up for some of his physical shortcomings.

Levshunov I just don't see it. He has talent, but there is a lack of intensity/urgency in his game. The compete is a real issue. The puck management is a real issue. If he's not turning it over, he's flinging it to a teammate in a bad spot and metaphorically putting his hands up like 'not my problem anymore'. His positioning is bad. I don't think he reads the game well. There are so many issues to work through just to get to a passable NHL level.

I don't think I've seen anyone rank Emery above Levshunov, or Buium, for that matter. I agree that Buium playing on Denver might distort his stats, but he also passes the eye test, for me. Would you also put Emery above Dickinson?

Not saying you're wrong, and appreciate someone's opinion based on their own viewing.

I've only seen Dickinson at the Hlinka so can't comment much, but no I don't think so. Both a higher floor and higher ceiling for Dickinson from what I understand.

 

[57special]

Yes. I'd have Emery and Buium in a similar range, but if the draft were tomorrow, I'd prefer Emery all else equal. If you're starving for a puckmover I'd be ok going Buium. I think in today's game, players of Emery's skillset are harder to find than Buium's.

For Emery, quick anecdote, last year I watched all prospects and made a year end list, but felt I had B knowledge on a bunch of prospects. This year I wanted higher conviction on a smaller number of prospects so I've been only watching USHL/NCAA. I say this because last year for Tom Willander, I made a post basically saying I would take him top 15 when he wasn't on any 1st round list. It's the same thing with Emery this year. He's not as 'mistake free' as Willander was, but Emery is bigger and more athletic. You're projecting to similar roles and I think you can argue Emery has more upside. You win in the playoffs with the Willanders and Emerys of the world.

It's clear Buium took a step this year. If there wasn't a September cut off, I'm not even sure if he's a 1st round pick last year. He'll clearly be a 1st rounder this year, but top 10 would be real rich for me. He's an offensive defenseman with average size and average skating. He's probably about 6'0 even. His skating is fairly elusive and he's good on his edges, but he's not dynamic. He's not fast. Trust be told, I didn't love his hockey sense when he was with the U18s. Either I was wrong on that or he's figured it out, because this year he's excelled in transition moving the puck up ice. Good puckmover, but I don't you think you should be drafting him thinking your getting a 70 point defenseman. Happy to be wrong on that. Defensively he's ok. I think he competes hard which helps to make up for some of his physical shortcomings.

Levshunov I just don't see it. He has talent, but there is a lack of intensity/urgency in his game. The compete is a real issue. The puck management is a real issue. If he's not turning it over, he's flinging it to a teammate in a bad spot and metaphorically putting his hands up like 'not my problem anymore'. His positioning is bad. I don't think he reads the game well. There are so many issues to work through just to get to a passable NHL level.


I've only seen Dickinson at the Hlinka so can't comment much, but no I don't think so. Both a higher floor and higher ceiling for Dickinson from what I understand.

BTW, I think we are on the same page as afar as valuing two way dmen, especially RHD. If Emery is going to be another Faber then you definitely need to have him in the top 10.

I think Buium is bigger than 6'0". To my eyes he looks at least and inch or two bigger. I do rate any player playing successfully in the NCAA over playing in junior, though there are always exceptions.

So lottery teams can look forward to drafting;
Dickinson
Levshunov
Silyaev
Buium
Yakenchuk
Parekh
Emery

And that's w/o getting into the smaller, talented Dmen out there. Jiricek, too. Quite a change from recent years. Oh, and is that Jake Fisher the guy on Fargo? The overager? I kind of liked him in MNHS hockey.

Again, appreciate the work on this.

 

[Frk It]

Yes. I'd have Emery and Buium in a similar range, but if the draft were tomorrow, I'd prefer Emery all else equal. If you're starving for a puckmover I'd be ok going Buium. I think in today's game, players of Emery's skillset are harder to find than Buium's.

For Emery, quick anecdote, last year I watched all prospects and made a year end list, but felt I had B knowledge on a bunch of prospects. This year I wanted higher conviction on a smaller number of prospects so I've been only watching USHL/NCAA. I say this because last year for Tom Willander, I made a post basically saying I would take him top 15 when he wasn't on any 1st round list. It's the same thing with Emery this year. He's not as 'mistake free' as Willander was, but Emery is bigger and more athletic. You're projecting to similar roles and I think you can argue Emery has more upside. You win in the playoffs with the Willanders and Emerys of the world.

It's clear Buium took a step this year. If there wasn't a September cut off, I'm not even sure if he's a 1st round pick last year. He'll clearly be a 1st rounder this year, but top 10 would be real rich for me. He's an offensive defenseman with average size and average skating. He's probably about 6'0 even. His skating is fairly elusive and he's good on his edges, but he's not dynamic. He's not fast. Trust be told, I didn't love his hockey sense when he was with the U18s. Either I was wrong on that or he's figured it out, because this year he's excelled in transition moving the puck up ice. Good puckmover, but I don't you think you should be drafting him thinking your getting a 70 point defenseman. Happy to be wrong on that. Defensively he's ok. I think he competes hard which helps to make up for some of his physical shortcomings.

Levshunov I just don't see it. He has talent, but there is a lack of intensity/urgency in his game. The compete is a real issue. The puck management is a real issue. If he's not turning it over, he's flinging it to a teammate in a bad spot and metaphorically putting his hands up like 'not my problem anymore'. His positioning is bad. I don't think he reads the game well. There are so many issues to work through just to get to a passable NHL level.


I've only seen Dickinson at the Hlinka so can't comment much, but no I don't think so. Both a higher floor and higher ceiling for Dickinson from what I understand.

Thanks for the explanation, personally I like Levshunov a lot, but I could be giving him too much credit for last year. I have not really had a chance to watch most of these prospects this year.

I also think with Levshunov a lot of it comes down to preference. He kind of reminds me of Evan Bouchard as a prospect, who I remember not everyone cared for. I also think Bouchard is a good example of why taking Levshunov high might pay off in the long run, you can round out your game over time.

 

[Castle8130]

I appreciate the post even though my analysis of their projections is completely different. I really want to see some tape on Michael Hage and EJ Emery. They are two prospects that could go in round 1 that I need to see. Any chance you have links?

 

[95snipes]

BTW, I think we are on the same page as afar as valuing two way dmen, especially RHD. If Emery is going to be another Faber then you definitely need to have him in the top 10.

I think Buium is bigger than 6'0". To my eyes he looks at least and inch or two bigger. I do rate any player playing successfully in the NCAA over playing in junior, though there are always exceptions.

So lottery teams can look forward to drafting;
Dickinson
Levshunov
Silyaev
Buium
Yakenchuk
Parekh
Emery

And that's w/o getting into the smaller, talented Dmen out there. Quite a change from recent years. Oh, and is that Jake Fisher the guy on Fargo? The overager? I kind of liked him in MNHS hockey.

Again, appreciate the work on this.

I don't he's quite as good with the puck or as smart as Faber, but he's of that ilk. I thought Craig Button said it best at the top prospect game yesterday. Someone criticized Emery's offense and Button said (paraphrasing), 'well if he had offense in his game then he be going 1st overall'. Celebrini is 1, but I agree with the point Button was making. Emery is raw, will need some tweaks to his skating (too much on his inside edges), but he's got all the tools and the athleticism to be possibly be even better than he is now as he advances levels. He's only 185 pounds right now and probably plays at 205-210 in his prime. You want him to be harder to play against, but he's a great lateral skater with a great stick. The type of player you can put out against other teams top lines and tilt the ice.

We're all speculating here, but I live in Denver and went to the DU game against St Cloud State from this past weekend. Buium didn't look anything over 6'0 to me. There's no way he is 6'2 as listed.

Re Fisher, yes on Fargo. He got hurt and missed a chunk of time so I haven't seen him quite as much as some of the others, but he caught my eye early in the season and was at the top prospects game yesterday.

Thanks for the explanation, personally I like Levshunov a lot, but I could be giving him too much credit for last year. I have not really had a chance to watch most of these prospects this year.

I also think with Levshunov a lot of it comes down to preference. He kind of reminds me of Evan Bouchard as a prospect, who I remember not everyone cared for. I also think Bouchard is a good example of why taking Levshunov high might pay off in the long run, you can round out your game over time.

I used the same comp - Bouchard - for him in the Levshunov thread. I think Bouchard is much smarter, but there are similarities between the two. If he ends up that good, then obviously he's worth being picked high. I have my reservations though.

I appreciate the post even though my analysis of their projections is completely different. I really want to see some tape on Michael Hage and EJ Emery. They are two prospects that could go in round 1 that I need to see. Any chance you have links?

https://usahockeytv.com/vod

All NTDP home games are free here. They played the Steel on December 13th.

 

[Frk It]

What are your impressions on Gridin? (and do you think it's possible he is being slept on as a prospect?)

 

[95snipes]

What are your impressions on Gridin? (and do you think it's possible he is being slept on as a prospect?)

I like Gridin. He's has a high skill level and he's smart. He'll make plays where I think to myself, 'that's Kucherov'. Kucherov is a special player, but perhaps a homeless man's Kucherov. The similarities are they both have good hands, slow the game down, and can see the ice. Gridin's got top 6 upside, but there's no real back up game. If he's not producing, he won't be a NHL player. I think Gridin goes 1st round, but we'll see. I personally like he's going the NCAA route.

 

[Napoli]

We're all speculating here, but I live in Denver and went to the DU game against St Cloud State from this past weekend.

Off topic and feel free to respond elsewhere but what are your thoughts on Miko Matikka? Projection?

 

[95snipes]

Off topic and feel free to respond elsewhere but what are your thoughts on Miko Matikka? Projection?

When I watch DU I focus on Buium and when he's not on the ice, I watch the other left defenseman and compare and contrast what their doing vs Buium. So I can't give you a detailed review as he's not someone I'm really focusing on closely. But it's hard not to notice what he's been doing on the offensive side of things. The shot tool looks legitimate. He scored a goal vs Western Michigan from the bumper that was rocket. Another nice one timer goal against St Cloud. He's got the size and the skating looks good. So looks to me like someone with NHL tools and has upside as a goal scoring winger. Probably not telling you too much here you don't already know if you're specifically asking about him.

 

[macbowes]

When I watch DU I focus on Buium and when he's not on the ice, I watch the other left defenseman and compare and contrast what their doing vs Buium. So I can't give you a detailed review as he's not someone I'm really focusing on closely. But it's hard not to notice what he's been doing on the offensive side of things. The shot tool looks legitimate. He scored a goal vs Western Michigan from the bumper that was rocket. Another nice one timer goal against St Cloud. He's got the size and the skating looks good. So looks to me like someone with NHL tools and has upside as a goal scoring winger. Probably not telling you too much here you don't already know if you're specifically asking about him.

I'm not sure how familiar you are with Adam Larsson, but if you know his game, would you say he's similar to what you project Emery to be?

 

[95snipes]

I'm not sure how familiar you are with Adam Larsson, but if you know his game, would you say he's similar to what you project Emery to be?

Yeah that's a good one. Right shot, similar frame, not horrible with the puck, but not a ton of offense. Eat 23 minutes night and play against other team's scoring lines. I don't think he's as physical as Larsson. That's a critique in Emery's game. You want him to harder to play against. He can be too 'loose' in front of the net boxing out. I think that comes in time. I said in a previous post, but he's skinny right now. He's going to put on a lot of muscle between now and his prime. Emery's not naturally mean. This is where my biases come in, but I think that's an old school mindset. At the end of the day I want the puck. If it's because of a crunching open ice hit, great, but a good stick is just as effective. Emery excels at breaking up plays off the rush, closing players off at the wall with good timing, and forcing dumps. He can tilt the ice. Similar to Willander there.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

We're all speculating here, but I live in Denver and went to the DU game against St Cloud State from this past weekend. Buium didn't look anything over 6'0 to me. There's no way he is 6'2 as listed.

I agree that he is no more than 6'0". You need to be convinced that his offense will translate in my opinion as you run the risk of ending up with a defensemen who is neither fish nor fowl at the professional level.

 

[tomd]

I'm still trying to reconcile how the OP has Levshunov 6th on a list of NCAA/USHL players while the CSB has him 2nd in the entire North America region. One of those rankings is very very wrong.

 

[95snipes]

I'm still trying to reconcile how the OP has Levshunov 6th on a list of NCAA/USHL players while the CSB has him 2nd in the entire North America region. One of those rankings is very very wrong.

Some (maybe most) people see the tools + production and think he could be a monster if he rounds out his game.

Others see how careless and lackadaisical he is and have concerns over what this looks like when the pace increases at higher levels and his size advantage decreases. I clearly fall in this camp. He already struggles under pressure at the NCAA level. If his hockey sense was really good, could make all the right reads, etc, I'd be more onboard. But when you have iffy hockey sense and lack intensity in a meaningful way.. that's a tough one.

Eiserman is a somewhat similar debate, but you can hide a flawed winger much easier than a flawed defenseman. I also have more confidence that Eiserman's offense translates than Levshunov.

 

[tomd]

Some (maybe most) people see the tools + production and think he could be a monster if he rounds out his game.

Others see how careless and lackadaisical he is and have concerns over what this looks like when the pace increases at higher levels and his size advantage decreases. I clearly fall in this camp. He already struggles under pressure at the NCAA level. If his hockey sense was really good, could make all the right reads, etc, I'd be more onboard. But when you have iffy hockey sense and lack intensity in a meaningful way.. that's a tough one.

Eiserman is a somewhat similar debate, but you can hide a flawed winger much easier than a flawed defenseman. I also have more confidence that Eiserman's offense translates than Levshunov.

Fair points regarding Levshunov. I guess I'd point out some additional points that may have factored into the CSB's ranking:
1. He's one of the youngest players in the NCAA this year (and maybe the youngest D?)
2. His progression over the last couple of years has been dramatic.
3. Averaging over a PPG but also leading his team in +/-. I know that isn't a perfect stat but it's impressive. All this as a freshman.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

I'm still trying to reconcile how the OP has Levshunov 6th on a list of NCAA/USHL players while the CSB has him 2nd in the entire North America region. One of those rankings is very very wrong.

I think it would be more accurate to state that several years from now, one will be more right than the other. Hell, both could be very wrong. There is a ton of subjective projection in scouting. Two experienced fans or scouts can view a single player very differently.