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Prospect Info: 6th Overall Pick: Pavel Zacha

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Why are people calling Zacha a reach? He was the highest ranked forward left according to most scouting services and most magazines that have any integrity. I wanted Barzal a little more before the draft like some of you but a lot of that had to with me stat watching. I saw a player who didnt average a ppg in juniors and came to a conclusion that I had no right to come to. After actually watching him play if come to the conclusion that he's the most sure thing out of all the forwards outside of Mcdavid and Eichel. He's got NHL player written all over him, when you look at his size, speed and skill. Best of all he's the most NHL ready forward besides the first two forwards drafted in 2015. He wasn't a reach at all by an stretch of the imagination. I also really liked what I saw on Saturday too and I knew I would.
 
Marshal Rochambeau said:
It's weird that he has somehow become an underdog. I don't mind but I don't understand considering he is the sixth overall pick, 6'3" and 210 lbs.
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It's because he did not produce well in juniors last year. You rarely see forwards produce at a PPG or sub PPG level and go that high (and for good reason most of the time).

So Zacha has something to prove. He's never actually shown he can translate his skills on North American ice.

I felt a lot better about the "he was injured and suspended" narrative to explain his poor OHL stats after checking out just how good he was in the Czech Republic. Compare to someone like Hertl:

Zacha:
16-year old season (13-14): 38gp, 4g, 4a, 8p, 0.21ppg in Czech men's league
16-year old season (13-14): 10gp, 6g, 11a, 17p, 1.70ppg in Czech U20 league
15-year old season (12-13): 39gp, 14g, 26a, 40p, 1.03ppg in Czech U20 league
15-year old season (12-13): 6gp, 6g, 7a, 13p, 2.17ppg in Czech U18 league

Hertl:
18/19-year old season (11-12): 38gp, 12g, 13a, 25p, 0.66ppg in Czech Men's league
17/18-year old season (10-11): 33gp, 14g, 27a, 41p, 1.24ppg in Czech U20 league
16/17-year old season (09-10): 42gp, 12g, 26a, 38p, 0.91ppg in Czech U20 league
16/17-year old season (09-10): 7gp, 13g, 10a, 23p, 3.29ppg in Czech U18 league
15/16-year old season (08-09): 35gp, 16g, 15a, 31p, 0.89ppg in Czech U18 league
 
Feed Me A Stray Cat said:
It's because he did not produce well in juniors last year. You rarely see forwards produce at a PPG or sub PPG level and go that high (and for good reason most of the time).

So Zacha has something to prove. He's never actually shown he can translate his skills on North American ice.

I felt a lot better about the "he was injured and suspended" narrative to explain his poor OHL stats after checking out just how good he was in the Czech Republic. Compare to someone like Hertl:

Zacha:
16-year old season (13-14): 38gp, 4g, 4a, 8p, 0.21ppg in Czech men's league
16-year old season (13-14): 10gp, 6g, 11a, 17p, 1.70ppg in Czech U20 league
15-year old season (12-13): 39gp, 14g, 26a, 40p, 1.03ppg in Czech U20 league
15-year old season (12-13): 6gp, 6g, 7a, 13p, 2.17ppg in Czech U18 league

Hertl:
18/19-year old season (11-12): 38gp, 12g, 13a, 25p, 0.66ppg in Czech Men's league
17/18-year old season (10-11): 33gp, 14g, 27a, 41p, 1.24ppg in Czech U20 league
16/17-year old season (09-10): 42gp, 12g, 26a, 38p, 0.91ppg in Czech U20 league
16/17-year old season (09-10): 7gp, 13g, 10a, 23p, 3.29ppg in Czech U18 league
15/16-year old season (08-09): 35gp, 16g, 15a, 31p, 0.89ppg in Czech U18 league
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He played 37 games, so that's hardly a reliable sample size. He also was recovering from injury and adjusting to an entirely new continent for a significant portion of those games. I just don't see how anyone can infer things from his short ohl stint. He also put up 5 goals in 5 games in the u18s when he was finally healthy.
 
http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/czech-teen-pavel-zacha-hopes-to-follow-tomas-hertl/

While the race to get Zacha over to North American shores will be a feverish one when the CHL Import Draft determines major junior destinations for Euros in the summer, Zacha signed a three-year contract with Liberec this season, so his path will most likely mirror that of Hertl, who came over to San Jose this season as more or less a finished product from the Slavia Prague squad.
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That is very interesting to me. Depending on how his loan to Sarnia was, he may be eligible for the AHL next year. If it was a one-year loan, then he was technically just property of his Czech team playing for Sarnia. So he was drafted from the Czech team and not Sarnia, meaning that he doesn't fall under the CHL-NHL agreement.
 
Unknown Caller said:
He played 37 games, so that's hardly a reliable sample size. He also was recovering from injury and adjusting to an entirely new continent for a significant portion of those games. I just don't see how anyone can infer things from his short ohl stint. He also put up 5 goals in 5 games in the u18s when he was finally healthy.
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It's not a reliable sample size, but you would like to see a top 10 forward dominate the OHL in his draft year. That's what most successful NHL forwards who came from the OHL did in their draft year.

Wouldn't you feel more comfortable with Zacha if he put up 50 points in those 37 games?

Again, I'm less concerned with the OHL stats after digging into his Czech league stats, however it's not illegitimate to be concerned about his 14-15 OHL production.
 
Zippy316 said:
http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/czech-teen-pavel-zacha-hopes-to-follow-tomas-hertl/



That is very interesting to me. Depending on how his loan to Sarnia was, he may be eligible for the AHL next year. If it was a one-year loan, then he was technically just property of his Czech team playing for Sarnia. So he was drafted from the Czech team and not Sarnia, meaning that he doesn't fall under the CHL-NHL agreement.
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Which is great. I think the AHL would be good for Zacha since it allows him to move freely between NJ and Albany.

I believe once a player is sent back to the CHL, they cannot be recalled.
 
I understand preferring Barzal to Zacha because of OHL stats (or anything else), but it's not fair to call Zacha a reach when he was taken where he was projected to go. To me, it wouldn't have been surprising if the Devils had taken Zacha (as they did) or Barzal, so neither, at the slot they picked would have been a reach, as far as I'm concerned. Barzal free-falling for whatever reason on draft day doesn't make Zacha a bad pick or a reach. I think a lot of people just get defensive about Barzal falling, so they seem to take that out on Zacha.

ETA: I'm talking about the people on the main boards, not anyone in this thread:D
 
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Zippy316 said:
http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/czech-teen-pavel-zacha-hopes-to-follow-tomas-hertl/



That is very interesting to me. Depending on how his loan to Sarnia was, he may be eligible for the AHL next year. If it was a one-year loan, then he was technically just property of his Czech team playing for Sarnia. So he was drafted from the Czech team and not Sarnia, meaning that he doesn't fall under the CHL-NHL agreement.
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If Zacha indeed is still under contract with his Czech team (as has been reported), the Devils need to pay 100k as a transfer fee and can then send Zacha to play wherever they wish. NHL, AHL or back to Sarnia.

It doesn't seem like the AHL option has been discussed much with Zacha, at least. He can also start in the AHL/NHL and go back to Sarnia at a later point in the season (but not vice versa).
 
Adam Larsson said:
Why are people calling Zacha a reach? He was the highest ranked forward left according to most scouting services and most magazines that have any integrity. I wanted Barzal a little more before the draft like some of you but a lot of that had to with me stat watching. I saw a player who didnt average a ppg in juniors and came to a conclusion that I had no right to come to. After actually watching him play if come to the conclusion that he's the most sure thing out of all the forwards outside of Mcdavid and Eichel. He's got NHL player written all over him, when you look at his size, speed and skill. Best of all he's the most NHL ready forward besides the first two forwards drafted in 2015. He wasn't a reach at all by an stretch of the imagination. I also really liked what I saw on Saturday too and I knew I would.
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Your honesty means alot
 
Zippy316 said:
I'm not hoping for Crosby-type production.

I just hope we get him to be like Getzlaf or Jeff Carter. A top line center with 60-70 point seasons but the occasional 80 or 90 point year as well.
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Getzlaf is a top ten forward in the NHL, and Carter is probably top 30.

I'll be happy if we get a very good second liner out of Zacha. Carter probably isn't a bad comp though - good skater with good shot, but somewhat limited hockey sense.
 
Zippy316 said:
I'm not hoping for Crosby-type production.

I just hope we get him to be like Getzlaf or Jeff Carter. A top line center with 60-70 point seasons but the occasional 80 or 90 point year as well.
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So you're essentially hoping he's a fall of famer.
 
I'll be blunt. If Zacha doesn't become a very good first liner at some point, I'll be disappointed. There are high expectations that come with being picked sixth overall, and I think Zacha knows that, which is why he's mentioned on several occasions that he's going to work hard to prove he was worthy of going that high. It's like how I would be disappointed if Larsson could never play first pairing minutes for us.
 
Adam Larsson said:
Why are people calling Zacha a reach? He was the highest ranked forward left according to most scouting services and most magazines that have any integrity.
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I think any player we picked at that spot could have been called "a reach". There was really no consensus #6 pick other than maybe Povorov, so basically anyone in the next 10 picks could have been picked, and could have been labeled a reach.
 
People need to cool it with these Zacha expectations. The 90th rank forward points-wise (ie first line production) was Ryan Kesler with 47. So if he is a 50 pt scorer in his prime with his physical/board play that pick is basically a homerun
 
Devils Dominion said:
We should not expect Zacha to be a huge point producer.
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Define huge...and it would be a dissapointment if he wasn't at least a legit top six winger in his prime. You hope to get an impact player with a top ten pick.

SMantzas said:
People need to cool it with these Zacha expectations. The 90th rank forward points-wise (ie first line production) was Ryan Kesler with 47. So if he is a 50 pt scorer in his prime with his physical/board play that pick is basically a homerun
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Last year scoring totals were abnormally low, maybe they stay that way in Zacha's prime and maybe they don't.
 
Nubmer6 said:
I think any player we picked at that spot could have been called "a reach". There was really no consensus #6 pick other than maybe Povorov, so basically anyone in the next 10 picks could have been picked, and could have been labeled a reach.
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Provorov was the BPA, but we are starving for forwards and had to take one at 6.
 
ForeverJerseyGirl said:
I'll be blunt. If Zacha doesn't become a very good first liner at some point, I'll be disappointed. There are high expectations that come with being picked sixth overall, and I think Zacha knows that, which is why he's mentioned on several occasions that he's going to work hard to prove he was worthy of going that high. It's like how I would be disappointed if Larsson could never play first pairing minutes for us.
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Yeah, I just don't think that jives with realistic expectations. Here are the forwards taken at #6 since 1990:

Scott Scissons, Peter Forsberg, Cory Stillman, Viktor Kozlov, Ryan Smyth, Steve Kelly, Daniel Tkaczuk, Rico Fata, Scott Hartnell, Mikko Koivu, Scottie Upshall, Milan Michalek, Gilbert Brule, Derick Brassard, Sam Gagner, Nikita Filatov, Brett Connolly, Mika Zibanejad, Sean Monahan, Jake Virtanen.

20 guys, and a pretty mixed bag.

First Liners (3): Peter Forsberg, Ryan Smyth, Sean Monahan
Second Liners (7): Cory Stillman, Viktor Kozlov, Scott Hartnell, Mikko Koivu, Milan Michalek, Derrick Brassard, Mike Zibanejad
Third Liners (2): Scottie Upshall, Boyd Devereaux
Busts (6): Scott Scissons, Steve Kelly, Daniel Tkaczuk, Rico Fata, Gilbert Brule, Nikita Filatov
Too Early (2): Brett Connolly, Jake Virtanen

(Some of these are fungible. Maybe Koivu gets bumped to 1st line and Monahan down to second line until he proves it over a long stretch).

There's a good chance that Zacha becomes an NHL player, but banking on first line production is probably not wise. I think he ends up more in a Milan Michalek or Scott Hartnell mold. Remember that every fanbase is excited about a player right after they're drafted. I'm sure Flames fans thought Daniel Tkaczuk and Pens fans thought Rico Fata would be top liner players. Some Columbus fans thought Brule compared favorably to Crosby.

Milan Michalek is probably a decent expectation. Similar size, same country, both have great speed, both can be physical. Michalek totaled seven straight seasons of 17+ goals. That's pretty damn good. Zacha was ahead of Michalek at the same age in the Czech Republic, so hopefully he ages better after 26-27.
 
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By that standard we really shouldn't be excited about anyone unless they're picked #1, geez louise pumping the brakes on over the top hype is one thing but why go the complete opposite way and mealy-mouth his chances before the kid's ever played a game?
 
I feel like a Mikko Koivu or Mike Richards (before he fell off a cliff) or Jeff Carter type forward is the realistic expectation for Zacha.

Those guys have all played as a 1C and are pretty good in that role, but ideally, they are not the go-to guy or they have a guy very similar to them at 2C.

But I'm hoping for somewhere between Ryan Getzlaf and Jeff Carter. If he ends up like Jeff Carter, I'm more than happy. If we can get a guy like Auston Matthews next year, then he doesn't need to turn into a guy like Getzlaf.
 
NJDevs26 said:
By that standard we really shouldn't be excited about anyone unless they're picked #1, geez louise pumping the brakes on over the top hype is one thing but why go the complete opposite way and mealy-mouth his chances before the kid's ever played a game?
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Nobody has a problem extolling the value of realism with a guy like Quenneville, but because Zacha was picked 6th a little suspension of disbelief is okay?

Listen, when we see the kid against some real competition in training camp/this upcoming season we can all make our personal determinations of how we view his game, but failing that, why is allowing history to guide expectation such heresy? All those players were just as highly touted as Zacha.

I think most here are on the wait and see train, but everyone can benefit by understanding what previous fanbases have learned firsthand.
 
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