6 Maple Leafs observations and questions coming out of the All-Star break

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LeafsNation75

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Jan 15, 2010
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Toronto, Ontario

For those who just the cliffs notes without clicking the link here is what is mentioned.

1) Mitch Marner is Toronto’s MVP due to his two-way excellence

2) The concerns about Auston Matthews’ offensive production are exaggerated

3) Will Morgan Rielly get his groove back?

4) Rasmus Sandin and Timothy Liljegren's internal development is a positive surprise

5) Timo Meir has to be Toronto’s top trade target

6) How do the Maple Leafs load-manage Ilya Samsonov?
 
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For those who just the cliffs notes without clicking the link here is what is mentioned.

1) Mitch Marner is Toronto’s MVP due to his two-way excellence

2) The concerns about Auston Matthews’ offensive production are exaggerated

3) Will Morgan Rielly get his groove back?

4) Rasmus Sandin and Timothy Liljegren's internal development is a positive surprise

5) Timo Meir has to be Toronto’s top trade target

6) How do the Maple Leafs load-manage Ilya Samsonov?
1) obviously
2) I’m not worried. It’s not like he forgot how to score.
3) Not sure what the groove is they are referring to. If it’s offense I think he’ll land somewhere in between where he is now and his peak season.
4) Liljegren more than Sandin
5) No comment
6) He shouldn’t need load managing. They need to be certain he can win when it matters.
 
Marner being the team MVP because of his two-way play is the biggest joke. He's the biggest culprit of the most brutal turnovers every single game.

Pastrnak, marchand, draisaitl, panarin with more giveaway than marner, whos care

Sure skill player will try more risky play and when you try it, yes sometime you will miss it...but big majority of the time, they will create something
 
1) obviously
2) I’m not worried. It’s not like he forgot how to score.
3) Not sure what the groove is they are referring to. If it’s offense I think he’ll land somewhere in between where he is now and his peak season.
4) Liljegren more than Sandin
5) No comment
6) He shouldn’t need load managing. They need to be certain he can win when it matters.
I agree that the load management thing with Samsonov is overblown. If he's going to be their #1 Goalie when the playoffs start he needs to show it in the regular season. If the Leafs want to go on a serious run, they would be playing every other night during each series.
 
Pastrnak, marchand, draisaitl, panarin with more giveaway than marner, whos care
Almost all top players turn the puck over more frequently, since they have the puck more often that others. Turnovers are an odd stat, like many.

They type/time/area of turnover is more important. Like other stats, not all turnovers are created equally.

I do find the praise Mitch gets about his defensive play funny though, especially since Matthews is still much better defensively, yet he'll get dragged.
 
Pastrnak, marchand, draisaitl, panarin with more giveaway than marner, whos care

Sure skill player will try more risky play and when you try it, yes sometime you will miss it...but big majority of the time, they will create something
When Marner does plays like this shorthanded, it shows off the vision he has to attempt it.

 
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For those who just the cliffs notes without clicking the link here is what is mentioned.

1) Mitch Marner is Toronto’s MVP due to his two-way excellence

2) The concerns about Auston Matthews’ offensive production are exaggerated

3) Will Morgan Rielly get his groove back?

4) Rasmus Sandin and Timothy Liljegren's internal development is a positive surprise

5) Timo Meir has to be Toronto’s top trade target

6) How do the Maple Leafs load-manage Ilya Samsonov?
1) He was always an above average defender imo. I think the bigger story is Matthews commitment to it. But, agree Marner has been the team MVP so far this season.

2) Disagree. Our cap structure means he cannot be just 'good'. He has to be amazing offensively for us to have a fighting chance. Even his commitment to defence isn't enough alone.

3) If he cannot, we are fckd.

4) Agreed. Somewhat surprising but oh so needed!!

5) I know everyone is horny for this guy... I am not sold. Worried we overpay with little result; he cannot be retained via qualifying offer. That being said, not sure what else would help us.

6) By getting Joseph Woll some minutes, and getting him ready to be with the team full time next season.
 
Almost all top players turn the puck over more frequently, since they have the puck more often that others. Turnovers are an odd stat, like many.

They type/time/area of turnover is more important. Like other stats, not all turnovers are created equally.

I do find the praise Mitch gets about his defensive play funny though, especially since Matthews is still much better defensively, yet he'll get dragged.
I’ve never seen anything but praise for Matthews defensive game and his commitment to it.
 
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1) He was always an above average defender imo. I think the bigger story is Matthews commitment to it. But, agree Marner has been the team MVP so far this season.

2) Disagree. Our cap structure means he cannot be just 'good'. He has to be amazing offensively for us to have a fighting chance. Even his commitment to defence isn't enough alone.

3) If he cannot, we are fckd.

4) Agreed. Somewhat surprising but oh so needed!!

5) I know everyone is horny for this guy... I am not sold. Worried we overpay with little result; he cannot be retained via qualifying offer. That being said, not sure what else would help us.

6) By getting Joseph Woll some minutes, and getting him ready to be with the team full time next season.
I think Meier would produce. He is a big physical winger, but I do fear the cost will be huge and I see no way how they can resign him.

Unless they plan to trade Nylander
 
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Marner being the team MVP because of his two-way play is the biggest joke. He's the biggest culprit of the most brutal turnovers every single game.
Puck distributors are always at risk of turnovers

I would argue Marchand is constantly on the wrong ratio side of giveaways vs takeaways yet is is constantly getting Selke votes. Kucherov is always on the wrong end of giveaway/takeaway stats as well. As creative puck distributors, these players always have higher risk of giveaways than other players. Doesn’t mean they aren’t 2 way players.

Irregardless….

Marner has more takeaways than giveaways this year, and usually does. He had +10 last year and is trending that way again. Maybe he’s had 2 or 3 that were indeed horrendous, they stick out in our minds, but statistically he is taking away more than he’s giving away. So I guess it’s who he’s giving it away to and when that matters. Just don’t do it in game 7 with a minute left in a tied game.
 
1) Mitch Marner is a beast. Adding a shot has elevated his game too.

2) Auston Matthews needs to score. I love he is committed to defence though. But we need him to score.

3) Rielly should be fine. Hopefully injuries are behind us and we can find some stability in the pairings. That’ll help him too

4) Lily for sure, and to a lesser extent Sandin are a surprise. Will prob be our top pairing in a few years if we don’t lose one this deadline. They still have lots to learn though.

5) Timo Meir is a wet dream. How the hell they make it work next year is beyond me but I have near godlike faith in Brandon Pridham so I’m not ruling anything out

6) See what we have in Woll. Or buyout Murray and grab someone if anyone available.
 
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A true rental F and a savvy move for Chychrun + Vej

Would do this team wonders...Bruins and Tampa are good, very good. But I think if we get the right guys, and peak at playoffs, we're a handful - no matter if people want to admit it
 
Marner is leading the team in Giveaways per 60 minutes at 3.09. Rielly is second at 2.64. Nylanders Giveaways per 60 is 1.42 for reference.

Marner also leads the team in takeaways per 60 at 3.42. Nylander is second at 3.09. Kampf is 3rd at 3.06. His Giveaways per 60 is also at 1.79.

This isn't a hot take. It's basic observation that marner attempts stupid low percentage plays way too often because he got away with it his entire life growing up.
 
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Marner is leading the team in Giveaways per 60 minutes at 3.09. Rielly is second at 2.64. Nylanders Giveaways per 60 is 1.42 for reference.

Marner also leads the team in takeaways per 60 at 3.42. Nylander is second at 3.09. Kampf is 3rd at 3.06. His Giveaways per 60 is also at 1.79.

This isn't a hot take. It's basic observation that marner attempts stupid low percentage plays way too often because he got away with it his entire life growing up.
Yeah it obviously is.
 
Marner is leading the team in Giveaways per 60 minutes at 3.09. Rielly is second at 2.64. Nylanders Giveaways per 60 is 1.42 for reference.

Marner also leads the team in takeaways per 60 at 3.42. Nylander is second at 3.09. Kampf is 3rd at 3.06. His Giveaways per 60 is also at 1.79.

This isn't a hot take. It's basic observation that marner attempts stupid low percentage plays way too often because he got away with it his entire life growing up.
Pretty meaningless stats. People often whine at me because I dare to criticize the great Mitch Marner from time to time but ever since the beginning of last season, he's been amazing. I still think he's overrated because so many people seem to think he's a top5 player in the game which he's not, but he's probably a top 10 forward and I'll say it again, since the beginning of last season he's been amazing and yes, he plays very well at both ends of the ice.

I'm not big on stats but how's he doing at takeaways? My guess is that he's pretty damn good but I'm sure you'll correct me if I'm wrong (and ignore me if I'm not).

Playoffs are what really counts though, he was very good against TB, hopefully he will be even better this spring since I think we need everyone at their best to go anywhere in this nightmare of a division we're stuck in.
 
Marner is leading the team in Giveaways per 60 minutes at 3.09. Rielly is second at 2.64. Nylanders Giveaways per 60 is 1.42 for reference.

Marner also leads the team in takeaways per 60 at 3.42. Nylander is second at 3.09. Kampf is 3rd at 3.06. His Giveaways per 60 is also at 1.79.

This isn't a hot take. It's basic observation that marner attempts stupid low percentage plays way too often because he got away with it his entire life growing up.

Players with the puck give it away more often than players without it, shocking.

Marchand, Pastrnak, Draisaitl, Kucherov, Malkin, Panarin, Barzal, and Zegras are all above him for giveaways / 60.

This is normal every year for guys who carry the puck a lot to lose the puck a lot.

Hughes, McDavid, Eichel, and Aho are all close to him too.
 
Players with the puck give it away more often than players without it, shocking.

Marchand, Pastrnak, Draisaitl, Kucherov, Malkin, Panarin, Barzal, and Zegras are all above him for giveaways / 60.

This is normal every year for guys who carry the puck a lot to lose the puck a lot.

Hughes, McDavid, Eichel, and Aho are all close to him too.
And yet Nylander, who plays with the puck as much, and is leading the team in even strenght goals and points, has one of the lowest giveaways per 60.
 
And yet Nylander, who plays with the puck as much, and is leading the team in even strenght goals and points, has one of the lowest giveaways per 60.

What site do you use for how long each player has the puck on their stick?

Or how many passes each player makes?

I'd be curious to see these stats.
 
What site do you use for how long each player has the puck on their stick?

Or how many passes each player makes?

I'd be curious to see these stats.
Probably the same one other people use to say Marner and Pastrnak and so on are big puck handlers.

If you find it, let me know. :sarcasm:
 
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