When it comes to future salary ceilings, the question is not only when we will get clarity — but will we get it beyond 2025-26?
As prophesied in the current collective bargaining agreement, the 2025-26 cap will be approximately $92.5 million — although the NHL and NHLPA can agree to lift it higher. At the December Board of Governors meeting, NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman indicated those discussions will occur, and for good reason. When the two sides negotiated the COVID-19 CBA in 2020, the cap was “de-linked” from a 50-50 revenue split, with guardrails in place in case economies did not recover from lockdowns. A strong post-COVID surge — with Bettman projecting a record $6.6 billion (USD) in revenues this season — indicates there is plenty of room for a larger bump.
According to several sources, the league and union are not just negotiating a 2025-26 number, but beyond that. It depends on who you talk to but, if this works out, we could get up to two additional seasons solidified.
On his Agent Provocateur podcast this week, Allan Walsh said, “I am telling you right now, the upper limit of the salary cap next year will be $97 million,” adding it could reach $105 million by 2027-28. Walsh has better sources than I do, so he’s got better detail on numbers. But it fits with the salary cap being set for three seasons. Also, what stood out to me was his use of the word “smoothing.”
The NBA had a massive jump in the summer of 2016: $24.1 million, and in retrospect, both owners and players hated it. Too much chaos and jealousy — the gigantic bump allowed the Golden State Warriors to sign Kevin Durant, prolonging their dynasty. In their new CBA, both sides agreed the cap can't increase by more than 10 per cent from one season to next.
That’s smoothing.
There are reasons for the NHL and its players to support this approach. Some organizations — even well-run ones — are nervous about an $110 million cap, especially those whose revenues come in Canadian funds. Right now, two-thirds of the league is within $2 million of the top. It’s going to be very interesting to see how much that changes as things rise.
As for the players, easing the pop allows more than one free-agent class to benefit. And, it protects them from their most-hated word: escrow. (When Scott Moore hired me at Sportsnet, he told me I’d get fired if he heard the word escrow. Thank God he’s not here now.) If the cap goes high and revenues drop, their escrow percentage rises. That’s the reverse of what they want. So, slight caution is smart for them, too.
