GDT: #29 | Flyers at Blue Jackets | Tuesday, December 10, 2024 | 7:00 PM | NBCSP

[Curufinwe]

You’re really reaching, bud. Of course Finland and Sweden wouldn’t pull out of the Olympics because there were 15 Russians there competing under a neutral banner. That’s completely different than playing against a Russian national team with their best players in a hockey tournament.

https://www.npr.org/2024/07/22/nx-s1-5048559/russia-summer-olympic-paris-team-small-scandal

— Three years ago, more than 330 Russian athletes arrived in Tokyo for the last Summer Games. It was a powerhouse contingent that managed to score 71 Olympic medals in Tokyo.

This year in Paris, International Olympic Committee (IOC) officials say Russia will field scarcely more than a dozen athletes.

 

[Beef Invictus]

The Flyers going into the period 3 with the narrative being to play good defensive hockey and bear down is bad coaching.

You are up by 3 goals. Step on their throats. Don't turtle and overwork the lines.

I think you can find hockey fans saying this back in the 40s and 50s. It's so obvious, but the braingenius hockeymen always settle into "safe" defending and it often bleeds away goals, or the whole game.

 

[Beef Invictus]

We have a player that is the envy of the league.....I cannot imagine how all those teams passed on a franchise player like Michkov but I am sure glad they did....it is funny reading the Habs page....everytime Michkov gets a point, there is groaning over there......

May that be the case until 2044

 

[Cody Webster]

Anyone plan the parade yet?

 

[deadhead]

This is why NST normalizes metrics for venue and score.
It's hard to stay focused when you're up 5-1 and you're just running out the clock.

Flyers are neck and neck with Rangers, Isles, for that last PO slot.

They completely dominated a CBJ team which was 8-4 at home this season.
This after going toe to toe with @Boston and FLA.
This is not a good team yet, but they're not a bad team anymore.
12-6-4 since that awful 7 game start. That's a 104 point pace.

Like I've said, just like last season, with average or above goaltending, they're a PO team.

Only 2 games, but since he returned, Drysdale has been lights out.
Looks like a completely different player.

Lines and pairs seem to be set for a while:
Frost line: xGF 61.32%, HDCF 50.27%
Cates line: xGF 64.72%, HDCF 68.51%
Couts line: xGF 57.18%, HDCF 63.59%
Poehling line: xGF 63.54%, HDCF 74.61%

York - Sanheim xGF 56.34%, HDCF 61.05%
Andrae - Risto xGF 66.82%, HDCF 67.15%
Seeler - Drysdale xGF 47.20%, HDCF 42.19%

 

[DancingPanther]

Anyone plan the parade yet?

No

At least not me. I'd burn the parade down

 

[deadhead]

 

[Sombastate]

Michkov

 

[ellja3]

You’re really reaching, bud. Of course Finland and Sweden wouldn’t pull out of the Olympics because there were 15 Russians there competing under a neutral banner. That’s completely different than playing against a Russian national team with their best players in a hockey tournament.

https://www.npr.org/2024/07/22/nx-s1-5048559/russia-summer-olympic-paris-team-small-scandal

— Three years ago, more than 330 Russian athletes arrived in Tokyo for the last Summer Games. It was a powerhouse contingent that managed to score 71 Olympic medals in Tokyo.

This year in Paris, International Olympic Committee (IOC) officials say Russia will field scarcely more than a dozen athletes.

There was BIG talk re: how Latvian athletes would boycott Paris Olympics if any Russians participated (even if under neutral flag). And, believe me, looking at recent history we have wwwaaaay bigger beef w Russia...

Of course, some Russians went and none of the Latvians boycotted (even those who initially were seemingly very adamant). So yeah...

Teams vs individuals is a bit different story, tho. I can't imagine Team Latvia going on ice to face Team Neutral Russians. And if they would, it would be a bloodbath.

Edit: Speaking of PHI, this team will barely miss the playoffs again, right? As much as I'd LOVE to see it, I dont believe NYR will continue their current suckity streak?

 

[ellja3]

If we look at current standings, PHI has 6 wins in 7 games vs teams that are sub 0.500. Certainly hasn't been a given in last few seasons.

 

[flyersnorth]

Does anyone even care about this 4 nations tournament?

Not even a little bit. I'm happy for the players that get to go, but I have no interest in watching.

Why does Canada even have a team? We're just the 51st state anyway.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

This is why NST normalizes metrics for venue and score.
It's hard to stay focused when you're up 5-1 and you're just running out the clock.

Flyers are neck and neck with Rangers, Isles, for that last PO slot.

They completely dominated a CBJ team which was 8-4 at home this season.
This after going toe to toe with @Boston and FLA.
This is not a good team yet, but they're not a bad team anymore.
12-6-4 since that awful 7 game start. That's a 104 point pace.

Like I've said, just like last season, with average or above goaltending, they're a PO team.

Only 2 games, but since he returned, Drysdale has been lights out.
Looks like a completely different player.

Lines and pairs seem to be set for a while:
Frost line: xGF 61.32%, HDCF 50.27%
Cates line: xGF 64.72%, HDCF 68.51%
Couts line: xGF 57.18%, HDCF 63.59%
Poehling line: xGF 63.54%, HDCF 74.61%

York - Sanheim xGF 56.34%, HDCF 61.05%
Andrae - Risto xGF 66.82%, HDCF 67.15%
Seeler - Drysdale xGF 47.20%, HDCF 42.19%

The Flyers are tied for the least amount of regulation wins in the NHL. The Flyers have played two more games than the Rangers and three more games than the Lightning (the team in WC1).

Just stop.

 

[VladDrag]

Frost has had so many chances around the crease this season.

I was looking at individual chances earlier today. Frost could have 3-4 more goals this season.

The other guy who has a lot of missed opportunities from in front of the net is Tippett...But as with last season, Tippett is scoring on medium and long range shots with a higher degree of frequency. I've written extensively about him in the past...The way Tippett becomes a consistent 30+ goal scorer is by converting these chances. Until he does that, he'll struggle to hit 30, IMO.


FROST'S SHOTS AROUND THE NET

TIPPETS SHOTS AROUND THE NET

KEY FOR THE FIGURES ABOVE
-Size of diamond is related to xG per shot (larger is higher xG value , smaller is lower xG value)
-Grey - shot on net
-red - shot that missed the target
-yellow - goal

 

[dragonoffrost]

The Flyers are tied for the least amount of regulation wins in the NHL. The Flyers have played two more games than the Rangers and three more games than the Lightning (the team in WC1).

Just stop.

Must spin the narrative forward even though basic thought proves it to be a mirage.

 

[mr4tno]

The best play of the night was Seeler not getting walloped by Olivier. If that had been a massacre, not only would ND be a permanent fixture, but dB would have traded for another knuckle dragger, preferably one with 2 career goals both against the Flyers

 

[deadhead]

I was looking at individual chances earlier today. Frost could have 3-4 more goals this season.

The other guy who has a lot of missed opportunities from in front of the net is Tippett...But as with last season, Tippett is scoring on medium and long range shots with a higher degree of frequency. I've written extensively about him in the past...The way Tippett becomes a consistent 30+ goal scorer is by converting these chances. Until he does that, he'll struggle to hit 30, IMO.


FROST'S SHOTS AROUND THE NET
View attachment 943527


TIPPETS SHOTS AROUND THE NET
View attachment 943528

KEY FOR THE FIGURES ABOVE
-Size of diamond is related to xG per shot (larger is higher xG value , smaller is lower xG value)
-Grey - shot on net
-red - shot that missed the target
-yellow - goal

Scoring tends to be random, bunched around a player's ability to finish plays.

Most players are around the median finishing, so goal scorers are like gamblers rolling dice, hot and cold streaks tend to even out.

Which is why I laughed when people were jumping on Tippett earlier, as long as the underlying metrics are solid, the scoring will come around.

This could be a good team if the goalies settle in.
First 7 games:
Ersson +0.85
Fedotov +1.82

Last 22 games
Ersson -0.14
Fedotov +0.15
Kolosov +0.23

When they went from terrible to average, the team started winning.

The four lines and three pairs are all playing well on a regular basis.
We'll see if it's sustainable.
But both the Frost and Cates line have steadily improved since they were put together.

They could replace Laughton with Lycksell or Richard tomorrow and I doubt we'd notice much different other than losing a top PK guy.

Replacing Risto would be much harder, Zamula or Grans would have to step in and neither are playing on the same level, and not sure either is a great match with Andrae.

 

[FanForLife]

I don't want the Flyers to make or miss the playoffs just to fit a narrative of how I think the team is...some posters here(not all!) just want to be proven right that they are good... or bad. I just want them to improve, to be a real contender. If that means making the playoffs, or missing to get to that point, thats what I hope happens.

 

[deadhead]

I don't buy you have to have "this" or "that." The proof is in the pudding.

To be a SC contender you need to be a consistent 100+ point team and have a good enough goalie(s) that you can win it all if one gets hot (even TB didn't win the years Vaselivskey wasn't close to elite)

Flyers right now are a 90 point or so team with average goal tending, same as last season, maybe a bit improved, younger (Walker, Atkinson gone, replaced by Michkov and Andrae).

To make the next step they need to upgrade, but they don't need a drastic upgrade.
They have Bonk, Jett, Barkey, in the system, (3) 1st, (3) 2nd this summer, more if they trade Laughton and/or Risto.
Plenty of assets to make those upgrades.

But a lot of improvement is left on this team, players like Farabee, Frost, Cates, Brink, Foerster, Andrae, Drysdale have upside.

If they make the playoffs, it'll be because some of those young players improved, it's not like Couts, Hathaway and Risto are going to make a huge jump.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

THEY'VE WON A LEAGUE WORST SIX GAMES IN REGULATION!

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

This is why NST normalizes metrics for venue and score.
It's hard to stay focused when you're up 5-1 and you're just running out the clock.

Flyers are neck and neck with Rangers, Isles, for that last PO slot.

They completely dominated a CBJ team which was 8-4 at home this season.
This after going toe to toe with @Boston and FLA.
This is not a good team yet, but they're not a bad team anymore.
12-6-4 since that awful 7 game start. That's a 104 point pace.

Like I've said, just like last season, with average or above goaltending, they're a PO team.

Only 2 games, but since he returned, Drysdale has been lights out.
Looks like a completely different player.

Lines and pairs seem to be set for a while:
Frost line: xGF 61.32%, HDCF 50.27%
Cates line: xGF 64.72%, HDCF 68.51%
Couts line: xGF 57.18%, HDCF 63.59%
Poehling line: xGF 63.54%, HDCF 74.61%

York - Sanheim xGF 56.34%, HDCF 61.05%
Andrae - Risto xGF 66.82%, HDCF 67.15%
Seeler - Drysdale xGF 47.20%, HDCF 42.19%

Yeah this team is really clicking. I was pretty sure they were going to be worse than they were supposed to be last year. Really thought that downward spiral at the end of the year (and continued into this year) was indicative of how the team actually should be doing long term but damned if they aren't exceeding expectations again. We all know they aren't legit SC contenders but it is also pretty clear they aren't among the worst in the league. I know that isn't ideal for those of us that want the tank to be in effect, but honestly if the team is good enough to make the playoffs they should push for it. I am not talking about being buyers at the deadline (unless the move makes sense long-term) but if they can continue playing like this and maybe moving one of their picks this year for a young NHLer and ship out someone like a Laughton or Risto to recoup that pick either an actual first or something else in a better draft or something like that I would be cool with that.

 

[FanForLife]

"I don't buy you have to have "this" or "that.""....then proceeds to say what you need. Whats your definition of next step? To make playoffs? Yeah not huge leap. To be contender? Pretty drastic improvement needed. Would I take a Stanley Cup with some unwordly goaltending, the only way it could possibly happen? Sure, but extremely...EXTREMELY!!!...unlikely for where they are now. You think they are close to being "good". I do not.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I don't buy you have to have "this" or "that." The proof is in the pudding.

To be a SC contender you need to be a consistent 100+ point team and have a good enough goalie(s) that you can win it all if one gets hot (even TB didn't win the years Vaselivskey wasn't close to elite)

Flyers right now are a 90 point or so team with average goal tending, same as last season, maybe a bit improved, younger (Walker, Atkinson gone, replaced by Michkov and Andrae).

To make the next step they need to upgrade, but they don't need a drastic upgrade.
They have Bonk, Jett, Barkey, in the system, (3) 1st, (3) 2nd this summer, more if they trade Laughton and/or Risto.
Plenty of assets to make those upgrades.

But a lot of improvement is left on this team, players like Farabee, Frost, Cates, Brink, Foerster, Andrae, Drysdale have upside.

If they make the playoffs, it'll be because some of those young players improved, it's not like Couts, Hathaway and Risto are going to make a huge jump.

Of course you buy that they have to have "this" or "that," it is inherent to your and the team's shared philosophy of roster roles and how important they are.

What a wild thing to type out after everything you've said in defense of set roles.

 

[TCTC]

Not even a little bit. I'm happy for the players that get to go, but I have no interest in watching.

Why does Canada even have a team? We're just the 51st state anyway.

The whole thing does feel a bit gimmicky. Is there even a trophy? Just glorified friendly games. Will probably have the same feel as watching the All Star Game.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

THEY'VE WON A LEAGUE WORST SIX GAMES IN REGULATION!

#culture..

that while being in year 3 of a 3 year rebuild..#yikes

 

[deadhead]

"I don't buy you have to have "this" or "that.""....then proceeds to say what you need. Whats your definition of next step? To make playoffs? Yeah not huge leap. To be contender? Pretty drastic improvement needed. Would I take a Stanley Cup with some unwordly goaltending, the only way it could possibly happen? Sure, but extremely...EXTREMELY!!!...unlikely for where they are now. You think they are close to being "good". I do not.

Next step is like I said, build a team that can get to 100+ points a season with average goaltending.
Reason I use the term "average goaltending" is we've seen top goaltenders make a mediocre team look good (Rangers) and bad goaltenders pull down talented teams (Devils, Colorado this season).

Right now Flyers are probably 90+ points with average goaltending, last season they were on a 94 point pace through March. Then the goaltending collapsed (Walker trade, injury to Seeler didn't help matters).

Since the first 7 games (with horrid goal tending) they've been on a 104 point pace.
I don't think that's sustainable, but 90+ certainly is if the goaltending is average.

So if you start with a 90+ point baseline, then you need tweaks more than drastic changes, some by young players improving, some by new players. It's not like Hathaway, Laughton, Seeler aging out will have much of an impact. Couts can probably sustain his production if he moves to LW, trading Risto will have a short-term impact.