GDT: #29 | Flyers at Blue Jackets | Tuesday, December 10, 2024 | 7:00 PM | NBCSP

[Curufinwe]

You’re really reaching, bud. Of course Finland and Sweden wouldn’t pull out of the Olympics because there were 15 Russians there competing under a neutral banner. That’s completely different than playing against a Russian national team with their best players in a hockey tournament.

https://www.npr.org/2024/07/22/nx-s1-5048559/russia-summer-olympic-paris-team-small-scandal

— Three years ago, more than 330 Russian athletes arrived in Tokyo for the last Summer Games. It was a powerhouse contingent that managed to score 71 Olympic medals in Tokyo.

This year in Paris, International Olympic Committee (IOC) officials say Russia will field scarcely more than a dozen athletes.

 

[Beef Invictus]

The Flyers going into the period 3 with the narrative being to play good defensive hockey and bear down is bad coaching.

You are up by 3 goals. Step on their throats. Don't turtle and overwork the lines.

I think you can find hockey fans saying this back in the 40s and 50s. It's so obvious, but the braingenius hockeymen always settle into "safe" defending and it often bleeds away goals, or the whole game.

 

[Beef Invictus]

We have a player that is the envy of the league.....I cannot imagine how all those teams passed on a franchise player like Michkov but I am sure glad they did....it is funny reading the Habs page....everytime Michkov gets a point, there is groaning over there......

May that be the case until 2044

 

[Cody Webster]

Anyone plan the parade yet?

 

[deadhead]

This is why NST normalizes metrics for venue and score.
It's hard to stay focused when you're up 5-1 and you're just running out the clock.

Flyers are neck and neck with Rangers, Isles, for that last PO slot.

They completely dominated a CBJ team which was 8-4 at home this season.
This after going toe to toe with @Boston and FLA.
This is not a good team yet, but they're not a bad team anymore.
12-6-4 since that awful 7 game start. That's a 104 point pace.

Like I've said, just like last season, with average or above goaltending, they're a PO team.

Only 2 games, but since he returned, Drysdale has been lights out.
Looks like a completely different player.

Lines and pairs seem to be set for a while:
Frost line: xGF 61.32%, HDCF 50.27%
Cates line: xGF 64.72%, HDCF 68.51%
Couts line: xGF 57.18%, HDCF 63.59%
Poehling line: xGF 63.54%, HDCF 74.61%

York - Sanheim xGF 56.34%, HDCF 61.05%
Andrae - Risto xGF 66.82%, HDCF 67.15%
Seeler - Drysdale xGF 47.20%, HDCF 42.19%

 

[DancingPanther]

Anyone plan the parade yet?

No

At least not me. I'd burn the parade down

 

[deadhead]

 

[Sombastate]

Michkov

 

[ellja3]

You’re really reaching, bud. Of course Finland and Sweden wouldn’t pull out of the Olympics because there were 15 Russians there competing under a neutral banner. That’s completely different than playing against a Russian national team with their best players in a hockey tournament.

https://www.npr.org/2024/07/22/nx-s1-5048559/russia-summer-olympic-paris-team-small-scandal

— Three years ago, more than 330 Russian athletes arrived in Tokyo for the last Summer Games. It was a powerhouse contingent that managed to score 71 Olympic medals in Tokyo.

This year in Paris, International Olympic Committee (IOC) officials say Russia will field scarcely more than a dozen athletes.

There was BIG talk re: how Latvian athletes would boycott Paris Olympics if any Russians participated (even if under neutral flag). And, believe me, looking at recent history we have wwwaaaay bigger beef w Russia...

Of course, some Russians went and none of the Latvians boycotted (even those who initially were seemingly very adamant). So yeah...

Teams vs individuals is a bit different story, tho. I can't imagine Team Latvia going on ice to face Team Neutral Russians. And if they would, it would be a bloodbath.

Edit: Speaking of PHI, this team will barely miss the playoffs again, right? As much as I'd LOVE to see it, I dont believe NYR will continue their current suckity streak?

 

[ellja3]

If we look at current standings, PHI has 6 wins in 7 games vs teams that are sub 0.500. Certainly hasn't been a given in last few seasons.

 

[flyersnorth]

Does anyone even care about this 4 nations tournament?

Not even a little bit. I'm happy for the players that get to go, but I have no interest in watching.

Why does Canada even have a team? We're just the 51st state anyway.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

This is why NST normalizes metrics for venue and score.
It's hard to stay focused when you're up 5-1 and you're just running out the clock.

Flyers are neck and neck with Rangers, Isles, for that last PO slot.

They completely dominated a CBJ team which was 8-4 at home this season.
This after going toe to toe with @Boston and FLA.
This is not a good team yet, but they're not a bad team anymore.
12-6-4 since that awful 7 game start. That's a 104 point pace.

Like I've said, just like last season, with average or above goaltending, they're a PO team.

Only 2 games, but since he returned, Drysdale has been lights out.
Looks like a completely different player.

Lines and pairs seem to be set for a while:
Frost line: xGF 61.32%, HDCF 50.27%
Cates line: xGF 64.72%, HDCF 68.51%
Couts line: xGF 57.18%, HDCF 63.59%
Poehling line: xGF 63.54%, HDCF 74.61%

York - Sanheim xGF 56.34%, HDCF 61.05%
Andrae - Risto xGF 66.82%, HDCF 67.15%
Seeler - Drysdale xGF 47.20%, HDCF 42.19%

The Flyers are tied for the least amount of regulation wins in the NHL. The Flyers have played two more games than the Rangers and three more games than the Lightning (the team in WC1).

Just stop.

 

[VladDrag]

Frost has had so many chances around the crease this season.

I was looking at individual chances earlier today. Frost could have 3-4 more goals this season.

The other guy who has a lot of missed opportunities from in front of the net is Tippett...But as with last season, Tippett is scoring on medium and long range shots with a higher degree of frequency. I've written extensively about him in the past...The way Tippett becomes a consistent 30+ goal scorer is by converting these chances. Until he does that, he'll struggle to hit 30, IMO.


FROST'S SHOTS AROUND THE NET

TIPPETS SHOTS AROUND THE NET

KEY FOR THE FIGURES ABOVE
-Size of diamond is related to xG per shot (larger is higher xG value , smaller is lower xG value)
-Grey - shot on net
-red - shot that missed the target
-yellow - goal

 

[dragonoffrost]

The Flyers are tied for the least amount of regulation wins in the NHL. The Flyers have played two more games than the Rangers and three more games than the Lightning (the team in WC1).

Just stop.

Must spin the narrative forward even though basic thought proves it to be a mirage.

 

[mr4tno]

The best play of the night was Seeler not getting walloped by Olivier. If that had been a massacre, not only would ND be a permanent fixture, but dB would have traded for another knuckle dragger, preferably one with 2 career goals both against the Flyers

 

[deadhead]

I was looking at individual chances earlier today. Frost could have 3-4 more goals this season.

The other guy who has a lot of missed opportunities from in front of the net is Tippett...But as with last season, Tippett is scoring on medium and long range shots with a higher degree of frequency. I've written extensively about him in the past...The way Tippett becomes a consistent 30+ goal scorer is by converting these chances. Until he does that, he'll struggle to hit 30, IMO.


FROST'S SHOTS AROUND THE NET
View attachment 943527


TIPPETS SHOTS AROUND THE NET
View attachment 943528

KEY FOR THE FIGURES ABOVE
-Size of diamond is related to xG per shot (larger is higher xG value , smaller is lower xG value)
-Grey - shot on net
-red - shot that missed the target
-yellow - goal

Scoring tends to be random, bunched around a player's ability to finish plays.

Most players are around the median finishing, so goal scorers are like gamblers rolling dice, hot and cold streaks tend to even out.

Which is why I laughed when people were jumping on Tippett earlier, as long as the underlying metrics are solid, the scoring will come around.

This could be a good team if the goalies settle in.
First 7 games:
Ersson +0.85
Fedotov +1.82

Last 22 games
Ersson -0.14
Fedotov +0.15
Kolosov +0.23

When they went from terrible to average, the team started winning.

The four lines and three pairs are all playing well on a regular basis.
We'll see if it's sustainable.
But both the Frost and Cates line have steadily improved since they were put together.

They could replace Laughton with Lycksell or Richard tomorrow and I doubt we'd notice much different other than losing a top PK guy.

Replacing Risto would be much harder, Zamula or Grans would have to step in and neither are playing on the same level, and not sure either is a great match with Andrae.

 

[FanForLife]

I don't want the Flyers to make or miss the playoffs just to fit a narrative of how I think the team is...some posters here(not all!) just want to be proven right that they are good... or bad. I just want them to improve, to be a real contender. If that means making the playoffs, or missing to get to that point, thats what I hope happens.