GDT: - 2025 NHL Draft Lottery on May 5th: NYI 1st, SJ 2nd, CHI 3rd, UTA 4th | Page 11 | HFBoards - NHL Message Board and Forum for National Hockey League
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GDT: 2025 NHL Draft Lottery on May 5th: NYI 1st, SJ 2nd, CHI 3rd, UTA 4th

Armourboy said:
You know its going to happen now. Brunette not being fired, Trotz drafting a Dman as our 1OA in history. Part of me thinks its almost destined at this point so the hockey gods can laugh at us.
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Or we have another Seth Jones situation where we are 2nd and someone drafts Misa instead
 
BKarchitect said:
Why on earth would Nashville do anything else with #1? They need a Josi heir-apparent, desperately. Schaefer is an absolute gem and they'd be incredibly fortunate to move to #1 to get to select him.
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They should take Misa, I just think it’s funny because they’ve never really had a star player
 
BruinLVGA said:
Fingers crossed, a little prayer, thinking of four leaf clovers…
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You won't need luck. The NHL can't have the Bruins in the cellar. They tend to gift 1st overalls to struggling big market teams the second they are within striking distance of 1st overall. Boston will pick 1st or 2nd.
 
Gregor Samsa said:
Last question, how long will the lottery take? I assume there is build up and filler. Is it 30 mins, 60 mins, or do they just get into it right away?
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I think we're gonna find out together. There'll probably be some amount of preamble with the studio talking up the handful of top prospects before the drawing.

If they're airing the actual drawing, it takes less than a couple minutes from the previous years they've released the video. I forget the exact interval but it usually goes like:

(draw number, wait 10 seconds)
(draw number, wait 10 seconds)
(draw number, wait 10 seconds)
(draw number, wait 10 seconds)
(look at EY employee with the spreadsheet and wait for him to say who won)

I'm going to guess there might be a longer pause after the third ball. The broadcast could list which teams could still win and which ball(s) they would need.
 
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If the Flyers don’t win either spot, best of luck to SJ, Chicago, and Nashville. May two of those teams win 1st and 2nd
 
If they are updating odds after each ball, or even just the 3rd, I feel like they will mess up something with the spreadsheets, graphics, or odds
 
theVladiator said:
There are 2 parts to the difference. One is procedural (drawing 4 balls instead of 1), and the other is the actual odds.

As far drawing 4 balls instead of 1, the concepts are very much the same. It should be intuitively clear that every 4-ball combination is as likely to be generated as any other. In other words, each 4-ball combination is equivalent to 1 ticket, and each ticket has the same chance of winning as any other ticket. Having a total of only 14 balls jumping around in the machine does simplify the engineering aspect of it.

Now, I think in the later posts you have indicated that your issue is with the lack of explanation for why the number of tickets for each team (so, the odds) are chosen the way they are. It's a fair issue, but the proportional odds spread suffers from the same. It may have an easy formula to calculate what those odds are for each position in the standings, but that formula would need as much of an explanation for why it should be used as any other odds distribution scheme.

I think it may be a little easier to understand why the NHL did not choose proportional odds distribution by comparing the odds under the proportional distribution, and what the NHL ended up using. The odds for both schemes are posted in this thread. As far as I can see the differences are:

* substantially higher odds for the last place team
* tweak the odds higher for 3 bottom teams
* tweak the odds lower for teams outside bottom 3. The further moving away from the bottom 3, the stronger the tweak (the odds are lowered more).
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Right, the odds go from like 11.7% or something for the last place team to 18.5%, or something (for 16 teams). Now, 18.5 is indeed close to 18.1, but the fact is that they’re deciding the odds themselves (presumably they all add up to 100. But it is the NHL so), as evidenced by the fact that the odds for both the 15th and 16th place teams are 0.5%, I believe. Who decided this? Why? And how? They locked all 32 GMs in a room and argued it out? Or did the powers that be just decide? Not that it ultimately matters as it is what it is, but the reasons aren’t necessarily mathematical. Unless someone can actually explain the actual math.
 
Rebels57 said:
Boston will pick 1st or 2nd.
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Brodeur said:
I think we're gonna find out together. There'll probably be some amount of preamble with the studio talking up the handful of top prospects before the drawing.

If they're airing the actual drawing, it takes less than a couple minutes from the previous years they've released the video. I forget the exact interval but it usually goes like:

(draw number, wait 10 seconds)
(draw number, wait 10 seconds)
(draw number, wait 10 seconds)
(draw number, wait 10 seconds)
(look at EY employee with the spreadsheet and wait for him to say who won)

I'm going to guess there might be a longer pause after the third ball. The broadcast could list which teams could still win and which ball(s) they would need.
Click to expand...

Yeah I think this is exactly how it's going to be. Fans will see the numbers but the EY employee will just announce who wins based on that number.

It would be pretty cool if all 1000 combinations were coded into some display so you could get live updated odds as each ball is picked. So the first ball is picked and the live odds are updated based on possible combinations, second ball is pick and odds are updated based on those combinations and so on.
 
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BKarchitect said:
Why on earth would Nashville do anything else with #1? They need a Josi heir-apparent, desperately. Schaefer is an absolute gem and they'd be incredibly fortunate to move to #1 to get to select him.
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Because the best center we've ever drafted in almost 30 years a 50 point defensive specialist David Legwand and in those 30 years we've had Timonen, Weber, Suter, Hamhuis, Ekholm, Subban, Ellis, Josi, etc on defense. We have two more 1sts this year to draft a defenseman, let's not eff up our first top 5 pick in ten years.
 
BTO said:
Right, the odds go from like 11.7% or something for the last place team to 18.5%, or something (for 16 teams). Now, 18.5 is indeed close to 18.1, but the fact is that they’re deciding the odds themselves (presumably they all add up to 100. But it is the NHL so), as evidenced by the fact that the odds for both the 15th and 16th place teams are 0.5%, I believe. Who decided this? Why? And how? They locked all 32 GMs in a room and argued it out? Or did the powers that be just decide? Not that it ultimately matters as it is what it is, but the reasons aren’t necessarily mathematical. Unless someone can actually explain the actual math.
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Pretty much.
 
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Soundgarden said:
Because the best center we've ever drafted in almost 30 years a 50 point defensive specialist David Legwand and in those 30 years we've had Timonen, Weber, Suter, Hamhuis, Ekholm, Subban, Ellis, Josi, etc on defense. We have two more 1sts this year to draft a defenseman, let's not eff up our first top 5 pick in ten years.
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I mean…I’m not sure why that would override their actual scouted board if they have Schaefer #1 (which, yes, is not a guarantee but based McKenzie’s recently released scouting poll, Schaefer is going to be #1 on a likely high majority of boards). They could use a franchise player for the future in both areas. It being Nashville would just convince me that Schaefer is in good hands to maximize his franchise level potential.
 
Rebels57 said:
You won't need luck. The NHL can't have the Bruins in the cellar. They tend to gift 1st overalls to struggling big market teams the second they are within striking distance of 1st overall. Boston will pick 1st or 2nd.
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Its pretty hard to rig it live although didn't people say it was rigged the one year NYR won it and it was literally shown live?
 
Empoleon8771 said:
Yeah I think this is exactly how it's going to be. Fans will see the numbers but the EY employee will just announce who wins based on that number.

It would be pretty cool if all 1000 combinations were coded into some display so you could get live updated odds as each ball is picked. So the first ball is picked and the live odds are updated based on possible combinations, second ball is pick and odds are updated based on those combinations and so on.
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I think that's exactly what might be happening, the NHL released all the number combinations and which teams have them already, so we can follow along and teams like SJ who have like 185 combinations will be much harder to follow without help
 
If You are Chicago/SJS/BUF Fan: Do you wish to not win this lottery to have a chance to win in McKenna/Dupont drafts?
 
kerrabria said:
I assume he's referring not to the lottery itself, but the drafts.

In 2014, they had the 2OA.
In 2015, they had the 2OA and got to pick Eichel, who himself was seen as an above average 1OA.
In 2018, they had the 1OA and got to pick Dahlin, who was the best dman prospect of all time.
In 2021, they had the 1OA again.

I don't know how much more you want.
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They dropped in the 2015 lottery missing out on McDavid - the best player in the league and miles ahead of Eichel
They were the worst team in the league both years they “won” the lottery, which just means they didn’t lose anything as a result of it.

That’s not lucky - that’s unfortunate. They lost out on talent. The devils and rangers and penguins have been lucky with the lottery
 
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