2025 Draft Prospects - Risers and Fallers

[Hrabal the Giant]

It's December and prospect analysis is in full swing! Who are your risers? Who are your fallers? It's always fun to track and follow who is up and coming in the prospect world.

For me, biggest riser are the Canadian defensemen after positive CHL/USA tourney. Jackson Smith, Blake Fiddler, Matthew Schafer, and Cameron Reid all look high end.

Biggest faller is the USNDTP prospects, Murtagh is likely the only who catches my eye that I would want in the top half of this draft. William Moore & Charlie Trethewey have lots of inconsistencies. It's overall a fairly disappointing class for them.

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[Hockeyville USA]

Biggest riser: Carter Bear.

Bear was probably a mid to late 2nd round type coming into the season; and now, he's a definite 1st rounder. Dawg out there and putting up points.

 

[Mathieukferland]

Québec

Biggest riser: Justin Carbonneau

Biggest faller: Alex Huang

 

[Briser la glace]

I will publish my December ranking in the next few days, here are some risers/fallers, and their approximate rank and the difference versus early November.

Risers :

• CARTER BEAR : 8 (+9)
• CAMERON REID : 12 (+11)
• KASHAWN AITCHESON : 21 (+12)
• HAOXI WANG : 22 (new)
• ERIC NILSON : 33 (new)
• BILL ZONNON : 38 (+10)
• TOMAS POLETIN : 43 (+14)
• SHAMAR MOSES : 49 (+18)
• NATHAN QUINN : 57 (new)
• JACOB ROMBACH : 61 (+10)
• MATTHEW GARD : 65 (new)
• NIKITA POLTAVCHUK : 66 (new) --- might end up higher on my official list
• JAN CHOVAN : 75 (+15) --- might end up higher on my official list
• DANIIL SKVORTSOV : 77 (new) --- might end up higher on my official list

I've also been weirdly high on Jake O'Brien (9), Mikkel Eriksen (25), Henry Brzustewicz (30), Eddie Genborg (34), David Bedkowski (36), Arvid Drott (37) and Carson Cameron (40), but they are not risers because they were already that high in my previous lists.

Fallers :

• IVAN RYABKIN : 24 (-9)
• RADIM MRTKA : 32 (-8)
• ADAM BENAK : 41 (-21)
• ÉMILE GUITÉ : 45 (-6)
• ALEX HUANG : 50 (-12)
• WILLIAM MOORE : 54 (-11) (I might help his case and rise him a little)
• LUKA RADIVOJEVIC : 55 (-9)
• SASCHA BOUMEDIENNE : 60 (-18)
• CONRAD FONDRK : 62 (-8)
• DAKODA RHEAUME-MULLEN : 64 (-14)
• Out of my Top-80 : Klingsell, Mooney, Zahejsky, Karimov, McKinney, Ekberg

I also have Ihs-Wozniak 44th and Trethewey 48th.

I still need to add a few viewings to my evaluation tool and do some fine tuning, but as of today this looks like this.

 

[frontsfan67]

Québec

Biggest riser: Justin Carbonneau

Biggest faller: Alex Huang

I second this

 

[Rabid Ranger]

I mean, not much positive was going to come for the USNTDP from that game. It's a down year. Plot twist though: Blake Fiddler is American! I'll go four Americans in the first round those year, led by Hagens.

 

[Hrabal the Giant]

Biggest riser: Carter Bear.

Bear was probably a mid to late 2nd round type coming into the season; and now, he's a definite 1st rounder. Dawg out there and putting up points.

He's been called a forechecking monster. Definitely a dawg and starting to look like he's pushing for top 16.

 

[Briser la glace]

Québec

Biggest riser: Justin Carbonneau

Biggest faller: Alex Huang

And Guité? ^^

 

[Juxtaposer]

Biggest riser: Carter Bear.

Bear was probably a mid to late 2nd round type coming into the season; and now, he's a definite 1st rounder. Dawg out there and putting up points.

How do you feel Bear compares to Benson in his draft year? Seem like comparable players on the surface, but Benson was an absolute joy to watch because of the details, relentlessness, and aggressiveness in his game. Bear sounds like he has some of those qualities, but is it to the same degree?

 

[Hrabal the Giant]

How do you feel Bear compares to Benson in his draft year? Seem like comparable players on the surface, but Benson was an absolute joy to watch because of the details, relentlessness, and aggressiveness in his game. Bear sounds like he has some of those qualities, but is it to the same degree?

I feel like Benson and Cameron Schmidt would be better comps just due to the size, skill set, and motor.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I feel like Benson and Cameron Schmidt would be better comps just due to the size, skill set, and motor.

I haven't seen a ton of Schmidt, but he seems like more of a pure skill guy than Benson and Bear. Schmidt's skating is outstanding whereas people constantly called Benson slow. Benson has talent but where he really shines is in a grindy support and retrieval type of role.

 

[MS]

How do you feel Bear compares to Benson in his draft year? Seem like comparable players on the surface, but Benson was an absolute joy to watch because of the details, relentlessness, and aggressiveness in his game. Bear sounds like he has some of those qualities, but is it to the same degree?

Bear is a lot closer to Tij Iginla. Strong, fundamentally sound, pro-style winger with no real weaknesses. Benson is a tiny creative skill player with a good motor.

Biggest WHL risers are probably Bear and Braeden Cootes. Biggest fallers Jordan Gavin and Reece Hamilton.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

How do you feel Bear compares to Benson in his draft year? Seem like comparable players on the surface, but Benson was an absolute joy to watch because of the details, relentlessness, and aggressiveness in his game. Bear sounds like he has some of those qualities, but is it to the same degree?

Bear is more tenacious, Benson is more creative. Bear is also a late birthday in his 18 year old season for his DY, whereas Benson was in his 17 year old season for his DY. Just worth noting. Bear's progression is like a rocket, so I'm not factoring in age here too much.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Bear is more tenacious, Benson is more creative. Bear is also a late birthday in his 18 year old season for his DY, whereas Benson was in his 17 year old season for his DY. Just worth noting. Bear's progression is like a rocket, so I'm not factoring in age here too much.

It's hard for me to imagine anyone more tenacious than draft-year Benson, so that's quite the endorsement of Bear!

 

[Briser la glace]

Bear is a lot closer to Tij Iginla. Strong, fundamentally sound, pro-style winger with no real weaknesses. Benson is a tiny creative skill player with a good motor.

Biggest WHL risers are probably Bear and Braeden Cootes. Biggest fallers Jordan Gavin and Reece Hamilton.

+1 for the Bear/Iginla comp.

Schmidt may be the fastest skater of this draft class and has one of the best shots as well, and he uses it very well while skating, so that's a deadly combo.

I think it's a question of time before Cootes starts rising on the lists. He is a Top-15 lock for me. He plays with so much intensity, he is a great skater, and has flashes of high-end playmaking as well.

 

[Leviathan899]

Big riser for me would be Jack Nesbitt. I think he’s a safe first round pick at this point, big kid who moves well, plays with an edge and is responsible at both ends, while producing well so far this season.

 

[Leviathan899]

I will publish my December ranking in the next few days, here are some risers/fallers, and their approximate rank and the difference versus early November.

Risers :

• CARTER BEAR : 8 (+9)
• CAMERON REID : 12 (+11)
• KASHAWN AITCHESON : 21 (+12)
• HAOXI WANG : 22 (new)
• ERIC NILSON : 33 (new)
• BILL ZONNON : 38 (+10)
• TOMAS POLETIN : 43 (+14)
• SHAMAR MOSES : 49 (+18)
• NATHAN QUINN : 57 (new)
• JACOB ROMBACH : 61 (+10)
• MATTHEW GARD : 65 (new)
• NIKITA POLTAVCHUK : 66 (new) --- might end up higher on my official list
• JAN CHOVAN : 75 (+15) --- might end up higher on my official list
• DANIIL SKVORTSOV : 77 (new) --- might end up higher on my official list

I've also been weirdly high on Jake O'Brien (9), Mikkel Eriksen (25), Henry Brzustewicz (30), Eddie Genborg (34), David Bedkowski (36), Arvid Drott (37) and Carson Cameron (40), but they are not risers because they were already that high in my previous lists.

Fallers :

• IVAN RYABKIN : 24 (-9)
• RADIM MRTKA : 32 (-8)
• ADAM BENAK : 41 (-21)
• ÉMILE GUITÉ : 45 (-6)
• ALEX HUANG : 50 (-12)
• WILLIAM MOORE : 54 (-11) (I might help his case and rise him a little)
• LUKA RADIVOJEVIC : 55 (-9)
• SASCHA BOUMEDIENNE : 60 (-18)
• CONRAD FONDRK : 62 (-8)
• DAKODA RHEAUME-MULLEN : 64 (-14)
• Out of my Top-80 : Klingsell, Mooney, Zahejsky, Karimov, McKinney, Ekberg

I also have Ihs-Wozniak 44th and Trethewey 48th.

I still need to add a few viewings to my evaluation tool and do some fine tuning, but as of today this looks like this.

Wang is truly an interesting one. Wouldn’t be considered a first rounder at all if he were playing all season in oshawa, but playing the first half against inferior competition has allowed him to really stand out and show his strengths. Elite skater and at his size, he projects high. A true project though and exceptionally raw. Played for Oshawa last week in his first OHL game and struggled defensively and making quick decisions, but also is very physical and aggressive getting up ice. You’re looking at a guy who probably needs 4 years to develop into a pro, but he does have serious upside.

+1 for the Bear/Iginla comp.

Schmidt may be the fastest skater of this draft class and has one of the best shots as well, and he uses it very well while skating, so that's a deadly combo.

I think it's a question of time before Cootes starts rising on the lists. He is a Top-15 lock for me. He plays with so much intensity, he is a great skater, and has flashes of high-end playmaking as well.

Yeah I’m a big fan of Cootes. Really enjoyed his style at the Hlinka and he can really skate. I’m sure most already have him in their first round but Ben Kindel is another guy I’d firmly have top 20.

 

[MS]

+1 for the Bear/Iginla comp.

Schmidt may be the fastest skater of this draft class and has one of the best shots as well, and he uses it very well while skating, so that's a deadly combo.

I think it's a question of time before Cootes starts rising on the lists. He is a Top-15 lock for me. He plays with so much intensity, he is a great skater, and has flashes of high-end playmaking as well.

Cootes isn't a guy who jumps off the page on paper in terms of his size or production but he's a very high floor player, a natural C with plus skating and plus 3-zone game and he's an easy projection to a quality middle-6 NHL C. Two highlight-reel goals in the last week, too.

 

[Briser la glace]

Wang is truly an interesting one. Wouldn’t be considered a first rounder at all if he were playing all season in oshawa, but playing the first half against inferior competition has allowed him to really stand out and show his strengths. Elite skater and at his size, he projects high. A true project though and exceptionally raw. Played for Oshawa last week in his first OHL game and struggled defensively and making quick decisions, but also is very physical and aggressive getting up ice. You’re looking at a guy who probably needs 4 years to develop into a pro, but he does have serious upside.

100%. Wang is going to be awful in the OHL, it's to be expected. Kid arrived in North America at 12 iirc and missed a whole year due to Covid. He does not know how to play hockey, he is 100% raw tools. He is a long term project, and playing for Oshawa/BU should help. But with that size, skating, physicality, and shot, I would take a chance on him.

There's a clear drop after the Top-20 imo, and I'd rather pick Wang instead of a bottom-6 or undersized guy.

 

[Leviathan899]

100%. Wang is going to be awful in the OHL, it's to be expected. Kid arrived in North America at 12 iirc and missed a whole year due to Covid. He does not know how to play hockey, he is 100% raw tools. He is a long term project, and playing for Oshawa/BU should help. But with that size, skating, physicality, and shot, I would take a chance on him.

There's a clear drop after the Top-20 imo, and I'd rather pick Wang instead of a bottom-6 or undersized guy.

Yeah for sure, not a knock on the kid as that’s to be expected. Very new to high end organized hockey and you can see on the ice he is pure instincts. Sometimes he’ll take weird routes in the D zone or over extend himself wildly, but it’s simply a matter of him learning systems and structure. The tools are elite and I agree, after that drop off it’s a matter of do you want a safe, albeit low upside player or someone who if he hits and develops well could be a stud. I’d take my chances with someone like Wang, as that skill and upside combo is rare late in the first or second.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

100%. Wang is going to be awful in the OHL, it's to be expected. Kid arrived in North America at 12 iirc and missed a whole year due to Covid. He does not know how to play hockey, he is 100% raw tools. He is a long term project, and playing for Oshawa/BU should help. But with that size, skating, physicality, and shot, I would take a chance on him.

There's a clear drop after the Top-20 imo, and I'd rather pick Wang instead of a bottom-6 or undersized guy.

I like Wang too. At that point in the draft he's a good gamble.