OT: 2024 Washington Commanders thread: change we can believe in!

[CapitalsCupReality]

Explaining how the NFL works, Part 17: The 5th-year option

Let’s examine the process of some of the inner workings in the NFL and how teams manage the situations.

www.behindthesteelcurtain.com

Nice little series….if you ever wondered what the latest mechanics for the value of a 5th year option were….


The amount of a player’s fifth-year option is based on position, playing time, and Pro Bowl selections. Starting off with players making two or more Pro Bowls, their fifth year option is the same as the franchise tag salary at their position from the previous year. If a player makes one Pro Bowl, their fifth-year option is the same amount as the transition tag. The other designation is for players who are on the field for 75% of the teams offensive or defensive snaps in two of their first three seasons, have 50% of the snaps played in each of the three seasons, or a 75% average over all three seasons. Those players are in the average of the 3rd to 20th highest paid players at that position. For those who do not meet the snap criteria, it is the average of the 3rd to the 25th highest paid players at the position.

 

[kicksavedave]

Glad more are on board with keeping Sam and not rushing the new QB. This is the way….

I'm actually not convinced that Sam cannot be the guy yet and that we need to draft the QB at 2 overall, but I trust the new decision makers to get that call right. Either way, as potential future starter or future backup, it makes zero sense to just dump Sam yet. He can play QB in the NFL and he still has plenty of upside left before he's a finished product.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I'm actually not convinced that Sam cannot be the guy yet and that we need to draft the QB at 2 overall, but I trust the new decision makers to get that call right. Either way, as potential future starter or future backup, it makes zero sense to just dump Sam yet. He can play QB in the NFL and he still has plenty of upside left before he's a finished product.

I’m definitely not convinced either….I keep them both, and hopefully reap a bounty on one if they both pan out.

 

[kicksavedave]

I’m definitely not convinced either….I keep them both, and hopefully reap a bounty on one if they both pan out.

And history says we'll very likely need 2 QBs to finish a season anyway. Might as well have one on a 5th round rookie contract. The question would be to sign a vet like a Jacoby Brissett type or someone cheap behind Sam for the #3?

 

[Roric]

Why don’t they just flip the script and take MHJ at #2, get as close to a sure thing of a budding superstar as you can get in this draft and really see what Sam is made of

 

[kicksavedave]

Why don’t they just flip the script and take MHJ at #2, get as close to a sure thing of a budding superstar as you can get in this draft and really see what Sam is made of

There are a bunch of stud WRs in the first round... if they want one they can surely trade down and get one, possibly even trade down and still get MH2, and add draft capital. The only reason to stay at 2 overall is if they really love one of the QBs still available after the 1st pick. In mock after mock after mock, trading down below 4 overall (AZ) risks not getting one of the top 3 QBs, who may well go 1,2,3 this year.

 

[Bananas]

Peters and DQ will have so much wiggle room if they simply nail the QB choice … and that does include rolling with Howell.

To that end if I’m AP/DQ I’m already either meeting with Howell or running him through some individual program before the draft. Basically say, “I’ve seen the tape, now show me what you got.”

 

[ynotcaps]

There are a bunch of stud WRs in the first round... if they want one they can surely trade down and get one, possibly even trade down and still get MH2, and add draft capital. The only reason to stay at 2 overall is if they really love one of the QBs still available after the 1st pick. In mock after mock after mock, trading down below 4 overall (AZ) risks not getting one of the top 3 QBs, who may well go 1,2,3 this year.

I'm in the camp that we definitely need to take one of the top 3 QBs -- agree that SH may have the ability to become "the guy," but there are 3 QBs who seem more likely, and we are guaranteed one of them if we stay put. This is way too similar to 2020 when we decided we had our QB and took a no-doubter stud at 2OA who turned into a pumpkin while the Dolphins and Chargers got their studs. Yes, SH is different than AS, but while he's much younger, he's less proven than AS was at that time -- and it wasn't Smith's age that caused him to shatter like a tinkertoy on the hit that ended his career.

The only trade I'd entertain in real life (mock drafts don't count) would be one with AZ to get #s 4 and 27. We'd still get the last of the QBs, and still have another 1st to fill another hole -- or package another pick with it to move up and get another major piece.

The main problem with that login, though, is that if AZ is smart, they'll know the top 3 are all going QB and they can stay at 4 and get their guy (MHJ). They have to have the discipline to know that any noise from us or NE about taking Jr. is almost certainly bullshit in service of trying to scare them into a move.

 

[kicksavedave]

The only trade I'd entertain in real life (mock drafts don't count) would be one with AZ to get #s 4 and 27. We'd still get the last of the QBs, and still have another 1st to fill another hole -- or package another pick with it to move up and get another major piece.

The main problem with that login, though, is that if AZ is smart, they'll know the top 3 are all going QB and they can stay at 4 and get their guy (MHJ). They have to have the discipline to know that any noise from us or NE about taking Jr. is almost certainly bullshit in service of trying to scare them into a move.

Yeah the top 5 in this draft seems like it will have more intrigue and maneuvering than any I can recall. The Bears remain the linchpin though, what they do will cascade on down in huge ways. I wish I had a freaken time machine so we could just fast forward to the draft. Not like the Caps are holding my interest at all.

 

[kicksavedave]

Enjoy this chat... Dan Quinn talking to Joe Gibbs about taking over his old job.

 

[Jags]

FOr Howell to have 21/21 ratio, actually says something about his potential.

Yeah, and even then there's additional context. The entire team cratered after the Seattle game. Through those first 10 games, Howell had 17 TDs and 9 picks, and that was with the 4-pick game in there.

It's a little simplistic to say that would have averaged out to 29 TDs vs 15 or 16 INTs, but there's no question that a more balanced and poised team would have helped him do a helluva lot better than 4 TDs and 12 picks over those last 7 games.

All I'm saying is that there's clearly some real talent there, and there have been tons of prospects with the promise shown by Williams, Maye, and Daniels that have completely shit the bed or gotten RG3ed with injuries. It looks like a lock that we'll take a QB with our first pick and I really hope it works out, especially if it's versus 2 years of Howell doing his best. If all Howell does is set the bar higher for the new guy, I'm still all for it.

It's great if we get our Philip Rivers; I just wanna make sure the guy we've got isn't Drew Brees.

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[Roric]

CBS Mock from 2 hours ago:

NFL Mock Draft: Commanders Trade Up To No. 1, Draft Caleb Williams​

NFL Mock Draft: Commanders Trade Up To No. 1, Draft Caleb Williams

Ryan Wilson and Danny Kanell join Tommy Tran and Joe Musso to discuss the Commanders trading up to No. 1 and selecting Caleb Williams in Ryan's latest NFL mock draft.

www.cbssports.com

WSH sends No. 2, No. 40, 2025 1st

 

[Roric]

Glad more are on board with keeping Sam and not rushing the new QB. This is the way….

I get that but it also just seems like a waste of a year in their prime/rookie contract. If that's the case then they really should just trade down and grab someone else. You don't draft a QB 2nd overall to sit him

 

[hockeykicker]

why not just trade howell for picks?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I get that but it also just seems like a waste of a year in their prime/rookie contract. If that's the case then they really should just trade down and grab someone else. You don't draft a QB 2nd overall to sit him

We don’t need to a first year QB to save the day. Sam is dirt cheap for 2 more years.

If he beats out Sam in camp fine, but we don’t have to rush things and F it up. How many times do you need to see that path fail?

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

I would 100% keep Howell for the rest of his contract. I want him around even more if Maye is our draft pick.

 

[Jags]

I get that but it also just seems like a waste of a year in their prime/rookie contract. If that's the case then they really should just trade down and grab someone else. You don't draft a QB 2nd overall to sit him

You only sit him if he doesn't win the job. Many great QBs have sat for a while because the team that drafted them still had a starter worth starting. The better that "backup" is, the shorter the leash on the starter. You create a situation where one pushes the other, ideally making both better.

why not just trade howell for picks?

Because his current value is questionable, he showed that he might have it in him to be the guy, the safest bet with a new guy would be for him to prove he has "it" before you let the other guy go, Howell is cheaper than Brissett, and we can use that money elsewhere.

 

[g00n]

letthemfight.jpeg

 

[Bananas]

If Howell stays there is a big chance they carry 3 QBs next year, which I’m totally fine with.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Why don’t they just flip the script and take MHJ at #2, get as close to a sure thing of a budding superstar as you can get in this draft and really see what Sam is made of

They said the same thing about CY99 his draft year.

There is no “sure things” in the NFL. There just isn’t.

Take the QB or trade down for a volume play. Which I’m fine with. But don’t overdraft at #2.

There are a bunch of stud WRs in the first round... if they want one they can surely trade down and get one, possibly even trade down and still get MH2, and add draft capital. The only reason to stay at 2 overall is if they really love one of the QBs still available after the 1st pick. In mock after mock after mock, trading down below 4 overall (AZ) risks not getting one of the top 3 QBs, who may well go 1,2,3 this year.

So yeah. What this man said.

 

[Ridley Simon]

CBS Mock from 2 hours ago:

NFL Mock Draft: Commanders Trade Up To No. 1, Draft Caleb Williams​

NFL Mock Draft: Commanders Trade Up To No. 1, Draft Caleb Williams

Ryan Wilson and Danny Kanell join Tommy Tran and Joe Musso to discuss the Commanders trading up to No. 1 and selecting Caleb Williams in Ryan's latest NFL mock draft.

www.cbssports.com

WSH sends No. 2, No. 40, 2025 1st

IF they think Caleb is the guy, then I’d swallow my balls and do a deal like that.

Anything more?

Go Eff yourself!

 

[Roric]

We don’t need to a first year QB to save the day. Sam is dirt cheap for 2 more years.

If he beats out Sam in camp fine, but we don’t have to rush things and F it up. How many times do you need to see that path fail?

Do you really not see one of these 3 outperforming sam in camp?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Do you really not see one of these 3 outperforming sam in camp?

Could be close and we could be conservative….so yes, I could see Sam come in looking great.

 

[Roric]

Could be close and we could be conservative….so yes, I could see Sam come in looking great.

Seems like a pretty big disappointment if this highly touted #2 pick can’t beat out sam in camp, not a good sign of things to come

I’ll say this though, if they do end up trading a haul for caleb at #1, there’s no way he’s sitting barring injury