OT: 2024 Washington Commanders thread: change we can believe in!

[John Price]

Watching Dan Quinn press conference and he mentions how he started coaching in VA with Sean McDermott and Mike Tomlin at William & Mary

I am sold

 

[John Price]

says he learned from his lessons and did too much at other destinations (tried to get roster control in Atlanta) but has humbled himself and learned less is more

already I can tell the energy in the room is better than Rivera. Rivera wasn't as dynamic but still was a respected leader

 

[Jags]

I'd stand pat and build around either Maye/Daniels.

I'm not sold on any of those guys, which is why it's key to me to keep Howell and not give up on his development. There was a point in the year where the whole team seemed to quit, around the deadline. Up to that point, Howell showed a lot of promise. Lots of issues to fix for sure, but he showed real ability across the board. The remaining issues aren't necessarily things that can't be overcome.

Going all-in on one guy seems risky to me. We have another, and I'd prefer to double up our chances of finding a real starter.

I don’t care who they take

Yeah, it's just like the coaching thing for me. I don't know enough about the complexities of football to say for sure that this coach is better than that one, and QBs are as difficult to predict as anything in the game. I'll trust our staff to make the right choice. Peters has seen firsthand the difference between a Trey Lance and a Brock Purdy, and he'll have a brain trust around him to debate all the options.

Taking off 10+ times a game is not a recipe for success in the NFL.

For me that boils down to whether they run to run or run to pass. From what I've seen, all three of the top choices use their feet to open up passing lanes, and mostly only run when it's the best option. Maye seems most likely to me to just run when he gets outside the pocket, mostly because he lacks the athleticism of the other two guys; that he can't get separation with his legs, so he can't be as creative on the run.

That said, he also seems least likely to run to begin with, so... *shrug*

There are best-case and worst-case comps for all three guys that are all pretty equally encouraging and worrisome. This is why I have to trust the experts AND believe we should not give up on Howell.

 

[Roric]

I posted a while back back (not sniping, just saying to the folks who remember, yes, I know I sounds like a broken record): Saw JD twice live this year and he was ungodly. They weren't 2 games where he ran like a demon, he tore the opponents (AUB and Army for a half) apart with his passing, including a play where he weas forced from the pocket and threw a bomb sprinting to his right to a WR who read the play and broke deep. Don't watch the highlights and assume he just takes off when protection breaks down. He's a QB until he has to become a runner -- and, yes, there are a lot of called runs for him because he's the fastest MFer on the field (OK, maybe w/ the exception of Nabers). Presumably, his pro staff is going to dial down those risks, at least until he adds 10 more lbs of muscle to his frame (whcih will easily accept it.)

I watched him closely in warm-ups and every single ball he threw was perfect -- every route, every receiver, perfect hand-catches on or one step from the sideline/back of the EZ. Yes it was only warm-ups, but he was clock-work perfect, every single throw.

In case you don't believe me -- and objectively, there's no reason you should -- I dug into this over the weekend at PFF, and JD not only ranked the best of the 3 in '23, he did so in virtually measure, including intermediate throws and rating in pressure situations, which is going to matter until this line is fully rebuilt:

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Very well put. He’s absolutely electric on the field. I am completely in on daniels over maye and no logical reason to give up the farm to get caleb over him

 

[StreetHawk]

I'm not sold on any of those guys, which is why it's key to me to keep Howell and not give up on his development. There was a point in the year where the whole team seemed to quit, around the deadline. Up to that point, Howell showed a lot of promise. Lots of issues to fix for sure, but he showed real ability across the board. The remaining issues aren't necessarily things that can't be overcome.

Wash really no different than the Bears in that sense since Howell is going into year 3 and has no 5th year option, only a franchise tag of $32 mill or higher should it come to that for the 2026 season.

With GM and HC, so they have to decide what the timeline they want. It's really 2 more seasons with Howell before you have to decide on a big contract (at least in terms of how far you can push it). DQ will get 2 years to build the team, but by the end of year 2, want to see the team moving forward.

Have to decide if they want to bet on Howell or one of the QBs in the draft. That decision and that QB's development will determine their jobs in 2-3 years time.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Watching Dan Quinn press conference and he mentions how he started coaching in VA with Sean McDermott and Mike Tomlin at William & Mary

I am sold

Very good presser. Quinn brings a ton of energy and passion and it’s easy to see why guys respond to him. I think they’re bringing in the right people, but then again I know nothing so who knows.

 

[kicksavedave]

I posted a while back back (not sniping, just saying to the folks who remember, yes, I know I sounds like a broken record): Saw JD twice live this year and he was ungodly. They weren't 2 games where he ran like a demon, he tore the opponents (AUB and Army for a half) apart with his passing, including a play where he weas forced from the pocket and threw a bomb sprinting to his right to a WR who read the play and broke deep. Don't watch the highlights and assume he just takes off when protection breaks down. He's a QB until he has to become a runner -- and, yes, there are a lot of called runs for him because he's the fastest MFer on the field (OK, maybe w/ the exception of Nabers). Presumably, his pro staff is going to dial down those risks, at least until he adds 10 more lbs of muscle to his frame (whcih will easily accept it.)

I watched him closely in warm-ups and every single ball he threw was perfect -- every route, every receiver, perfect hand-catches on or one step from the sideline/back of the EZ. Yes it was only warm-ups, but he was clock-work perfect, every single throw.

In case you don't believe me -- and objectively, there's no reason you should -- I dug into this over the weekend at PFF, and JD not only ranked the best of the 3 in '23, he did so in virtually measure, including intermediate throws and rating in pressure situations, which is going to matter until this line is fully rebuilt:

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Great post, and love the data. I subbed to PFF and while their written review of Daniels is less glowing, these numbers really blow away the other two QBs and it was against far better competition. Look at how Daniels closed the year vs how the other two fell down a bit. If @twabby was a football person, he/she would approve of Daniels.

Look at the turnover worthy play ratio for JD vs CW. More than double the rate.

 

[RedRocking]

I posted a while back back (not sniping, just saying to the folks who remember, yes, I know I sounds like a broken record): Saw JD twice live this year and he was ungodly. They weren't 2 games where he ran like a demon, he tore the opponents (AUB and Army for a half) apart with his passing, including a play where he weas forced from the pocket and threw a bomb sprinting to his right to a WR who read the play and broke deep. Don't watch the highlights and assume he just takes off when protection breaks down. He's a QB until he has to become a runner -- and, yes, there are a lot of called runs for him because he's the fastest MFer on the field (OK, maybe w/ the exception of Nabers). Presumably, his pro staff is going to dial down those risks, at least until he adds 10 more lbs of muscle to his frame (whcih will easily accept it.)

I watched him closely in warm-ups and every single ball he threw was perfect -- every route, every receiver, perfect hand-catches on or one step from the sideline/back of the EZ. Yes it was only warm-ups, but he was clock-work perfect, every single throw.

In case you don't believe me -- and objectively, there's no reason you should -- I dug into this over the weekend at PFF, and JD not only ranked the best of the 3 in '23, he did so in virtually measure, including intermediate throws and rating in pressure situations, which is going to matter until this line is fully rebuilt:

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Thanks for the long, thoughtful post and all the data. I appreciate it. That’s really cool that you saw him in person. I saw a handful of his games (Auburn, A&M, etc..) on the ‘ol TV, and he was indeed electric and remarkably efficient.

I’ll take a closer look at the numbers when I have a chance.

 

[Bananas]

Now just imagine Maye in two years….

This is a solid post. I think the age factor needs to be included though.

Sitting the guy is a lot easier when they are drafted 10-30 instead of 2 overall. There's a window when his contract will be cheap, he will have a lot of pressure to play well early. The last time I remember someone top 1/2 overall sitting out his rookie year was Carson Palmer. Maybe I'm missing someone more recent?

I'm no pro scout, but Adam Peters is, so yeah, we trust the process. But from what I see, the risks are as follows:

CW: Doesn't play within the offense, or read defenses and make progressions, and has significant maturity questions that are well documented.
DM: Has issues dealing with pressure, his footwork and accuracy really decline under a pass rush, much more so than the other QBs. Think "happy feet" but you won't see this in his highlight reels, only in full game views.
JD: Has shown an RGIII like inability to protect himself when scrambling, getting KO'd of a few games by taking massive hits. Otherwise, I see him as having the most upside and lowest risk of the three.

For the record, JD has a higher passer rating against tougher competition over two full years than the other two QBs. Both CW and Maye regressed in 2023 which is a very bad omen for NFL success, whereas Daniels improved a lot in

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

I’m sold on Maye. I’m very happy if we get him at two im little scared someone might take him one

You can train on foot work. You can’t train 6’5 and cannon arm. He’s been top rated prospect for years for a reason.

 

[ynotcaps]

Thanks for the long, thoughtful post and all the data. I appreciate it. That’s really cool that you saw him in person. I saw a handful of his games (Auburn, A&M, etc..) on the ‘ol TV, and he was indeed electric and remarkably efficient.

I’ll take a closer look at the numbers when I have a chance.

Happy to share!

The A&M game specifically, with the big comeback, those TD throws he hit to the receivers where only the receivers could make the catches, reaching just outside the boundary, were exactly the throws he was making in warm-ups at the games I attended. I told my wife as we were watching, "No accident, they've practiced that play 100s of times, just like that!"

 

[hockeykicker]

anyone want to see the commanders play the eagles week on in brazil?

 

[g00n]

EB out

Dan Quinn: Eric Bieniemy will not be on the Commanders coaching staff

Bieniemy spent one year as the offensive coordinator in Washington.

www.nbcsports.com

 

[Chokingdogs]

EB out

Dan Quinn: Eric Bieniemy will not be on the Commanders coaching staff

Bieniemy spent one year as the offensive coordinator in Washington.

www.nbcsports.com

Praise Jebus!

Now I can go about my DC sports life being able to neither see nor hear that name, again.

 

[usiel]

EB out

Dan Quinn: Eric Bieniemy will not be on the Commanders coaching staff

Bieniemy spent one year as the offensive coordinator in Washington.

www.nbcsports.com

Yeah that came out in the press conference pretty straight forwardly

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Yeah that came out in the press conference pretty straight forwardly

I thought he actually buried the lede with his answer and I was really surprised no one followed up to clarify. Quinn said a few nice things about EB then casually slipped in that they’re not working together this year (which is a really odd way of saying someone is fired) and then he immediately pivoted to saying how much he respects EB. I thought it sounded like a very weird, ‘not trying to rock the boat’ answer.

 

[Eirikrautha]

Maye is just so boring to me. He’s the most “game manager” type of all 3 top qb’s and not what this franchise needs, which is a dynamic playmaker. The best teams have a qb that can take over games by themselves if needed (chiefs, bills, ravens, eagles).

Purdy’s success is a total outlier with the perfect system/weapons/coaching staff surrounding him, none of which we have. Could say goff is in a similar situation. Just boring QBs

If not caleb, get daniels

What?!? I'd rather win Super Bowls than see "exciting" losers. Hmmm, and what kind of quarterback has won the most Super Bowls? The ultimate "game manager"... Tom Brady. Give me that any day of the week...

 

[usiel]

I thought he actually buried the lede with his answer and I was really surprised no one followed up to clarify. Quinn said a few nice things about EB then casually slipped in that they’re not working together this year (which is a really odd way of saying someone is fired) and then he immediately pivoted to saying how much he respects EB. I thought it sounded like a very weird, ‘not trying to rock the boat’ answer.

I sort of took it a bit like he described meeting Kliff years ago and that he filed it away as someone it would be good to work with category so meeting with EB felt like a bit of being respectful. Maybe he was being a bit careful with what is happening contractually with EB.

Was impressed in the press conference by DQ. I thought the parts of what he learned from Atlanta and during his stint with Dallas refreshing.

 

[kicksavedave]

I sort of took it a bit like he described meeting Kliff years ago and that he filed it away as someone it would be good to work with category so meeting with EB felt like a bit of being respectful. Maybe he was being a bit careful with what is happening contractually with EB.

Was impressed in the press conference by DQ. I thought the parts of what he learned from Atlanta and during his stint with Dallas refreshing.

I thought he referred to game planning against KK's offense... how hard it was, how it challenged the whole defense. He definitely mentioned locking away KK's name if he ever got another chance to assemble a staff.

 

[Jags]

Have to decide if they want to bet on Howell or one of the QBs in the draft.

Eventually, sure. But right now they have 2 years with both of them to let them duke it out. There's zero chance I'd punt on Howell before his contract year. No reason not to keep him and let him keep vying for the job.

Was impressed in the press conference by DQ.

Yeah, I like how plainspoken he was. Just in terms of the impression he made as a man, he reminds me of Dan Campbell, straightforward football guy who connects with players on their level. Plus he seemed humble; acknowledging that he needed to evolve, emphasizing the things he's learned since Atlanta.

I also thought it was good that he and Peters genuinely seem to like each other. I'm having a harder and harder time believing that Quinn wasn't just the guy they ended up being most comfortable with. Maybe they wanted Johnson at the outset, but after actually meeting with the candidates with open minds, Quinn was the best fit for a group that wants to move forward on the same page.

Just guessing of course, but that's the vibe I get.

 

[RedRocking]

From Matt Miller’s mock draft today on ESPN+

 

[Roric]

What?!? I'd rather win Super Bowls than see "exciting" losers. Hmmm, and what kind of quarterback has won the most Super Bowls? The ultimate "game manager"... Tom Brady. Give me that any day of the week…

Brady developed a habit very early on of taking over games late and leading game winning drives. He would be a game manager 95% of the time, but when things were tight late in the game, he would put the team on his back in a way few other QBs could.

 

[StreetHawk]

Eventually, sure. But right now they have 2 years with both of them to let them duke it out. There's zero chance I'd punt on Howell before his contract year. No reason not to keep him and let him keep vying for the job.

No reason to dump him. 4th rounder QB money is nothing. Keep them both around til Howell's contract ends.

 

[kicksavedave]

No reason to dump him. 4th rounder QB money is nothing. Keep them both around til Howell's contract ends.

Plus, if we look at just about any rookie/first year starter QB, most all of them, the huge majority, have very negative TD to Int ratios. FOr Howell to have 21/21 ratio, actually says something about his potential. We should expect that he will improve in year 2 of starting, especially with an OC who actually doesn't abandon the run 5 minutes into the game. KK's teams were usually in the top 10 in running % leaguewide, not this *whatever EB was doing* thing.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Glad more are on board with keeping Sam and not rushing the new QB. This is the way….