Blue Jays GDT: 2024 v6 | Mon, Sept 9 | vs NYM | 7pm ET/4pm PT | Megill vs Burr/Bullpen

[Suntouchable13]

The As need to be straight charged with ambush style assault. This is illegal.

 

[PanniniClaus]

Will they need Bassitt to eat some innings?

 

[shaner8989]

Love that Bassitt bought into the tank

 

[MK78]

Love that Bassitt bought into the tank

Meh, the guy looks like his dog died when he's pitching a perfect game or getting shelled.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

But the Jays have the worst farm system in the league… despite a combo of Horwitz/Barger/Leo/OMart/Berroa leading one of the best lineups in AAA.

I mean, the only guy in that group that projects to be an above average regular is Martinez so they're not wrong. I like all those players other than Berroa but I'm not ready to annoint them just yet. Davis Schneider looked like he could be an average everyday player (2-2.5WAR) in a small sample last year and now he's produced only 0.5 WAR in three times as many games.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Blue Jays' Bassitt says closed roof contributed to poor start - Sportsnet.ca

Chris Bassitt had one of his worst outings of the season on Sunday but the veteran right-hander has a theory for why things went south.

Speaking to reporters after the loss to the Oakland A's, Bassitt said his pitches were affected by the closed roof at the Rogers Centre.

"Roof closed, completely different than roof being open, wasn't really ready for it," Bassitt said. "I had to completely change my mechanics to kinda get the movement I wanted."

Bassitt allowed seven runs on eight hits over four innings against his former team, but six of those runs came in the first inning when Oakland sent 11 batters to the plate.

It's the second time in his last three starts that Bassitt has only lasted four innings. His worst start of the season came in April, when he also allowed seven runs and was pulled after 2.2 innings against the Dodgers.

For the season, Bassitt has a 4.30 ERA in 24 starts.

 

[the valiant effort]

You sure it wasn’t the pitchcomm like usual? Bassitt’s a complete dweeb

 

[647Hockey]

Blue Jays' Bassitt says closed roof contributed to poor start - Sportsnet.ca

Chris Bassitt had one of his worst outings of the season on Sunday but the veteran right-hander has a theory for why things went south.

Speaking to reporters after the loss to the Oakland A's, Bassitt said his pitches were affected by the closed roof at the Rogers Centre.

"Roof closed, completely different than roof being open, wasn't really ready for it," Bassitt said. "I had to completely change my mechanics to kinda get the movement I wanted."

Bassitt allowed seven runs on eight hits over four innings against his former team, but six of those runs came in the first inning when Oakland sent 11 batters to the plate.

It's the second time in his last three starts that Bassitt has only lasted four innings. His worst start of the season came in April, when he also allowed seven runs and was pulled after 2.2 innings against the Dodgers.

For the season, Bassitt has a 4.30 ERA in 24 starts.

LOL.

JP Sears pitched fine.

$20M per year for a 4.30 ERA.

 

[stickty111]

Blue Jays' Bassitt says closed roof contributed to poor start - Sportsnet.ca

Chris Bassitt had one of his worst outings of the season on Sunday but the veteran right-hander has a theory for why things went south.

Speaking to reporters after the loss to the Oakland A's, Bassitt said his pitches were affected by the closed roof at the Rogers Centre.

"Roof closed, completely different than roof being open, wasn't really ready for it," Bassitt said. "I had to completely change my mechanics to kinda get the movement I wanted."

Bassitt allowed seven runs on eight hits over four innings against his former team, but six of those runs came in the first inning when Oakland sent 11 batters to the plate.

It's the second time in his last three starts that Bassitt has only lasted four innings. His worst start of the season came in April, when he also allowed seven runs and was pulled after 2.2 innings against the Dodgers.

For the season, Bassitt has a 4.30 ERA in 24 starts.

These are the kind of excuses you don't want to hear from someone you expect be a core member of your rotation. He's been good overall but this is a bad comment

 

[647Hockey]

These are the kind of excuses you don't want to hear from someone you expect be a core member of your rotation. He's been good overall but this is a bad comment

It's a bullshit reason hoping people fall for it. Never trust athletes or commentators throwing out random stats or opinions without checking details.

Bassitt's career stats regarding open/dome/grass/turf etc.... are amazingly consistent.

But regarding Dome closed or Dome retracted, his career stats for Dome conditions being closed he's got better stats.

Go to Game Conditions section midway down the page.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=bassich01&year=Career&t=p

 

[trellaine201]

But the Jays have the worst farm system in the league… despite a combo of Horwitz/Barger/Leo/OMart/Berroa leading one of the best lineups in AAA.

To be fair there around 27th

 

[MK78]

LOL.

JP Sears pitched fine.

$20M per year for a 4.30 ERA.

Pretty much the 3 big starters are $20M+ and 4+ ERA at this point. not a mark of a good season, nevermind of the anemic offense and the bad bullpen.

 

[647Hockey]

Pretty much the 3 big starters are $20M+ and 4+ ERA at this point. not a mark of a good season, nevermind of the anemic offense and the bad bullpen.

Alek Manoah has been laughed at for over a year. And new pitcher Y Rodriguez was called up.

Both them have era in the 3's.

 

[MK78]

Alek Manoah has been laughed at for over a year. And new pitcher Y Rodriguez was called up.

Both them have era in the 3's.

Manoah didn't even have a chance at working his way back to being a major league pitcher. his problem in the spring training, then in May he had two bad games and two good games. and the 5th game he left with the TJ injury in the 2nd inning.

So its a wash, no progress gained. He'll be out most of next season, so if he comes back in August or September its gonna be a wash too, as he it will be essentially just rehab starts.

Manoah's true comeback attempt will be in 2026, assuming he has no further injuries and if he is still with the team.

So they will need another staring pitcher for 2025, assuming they keep the big 3 and that Y-Rod is serviceable.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Manoah didn't even have a chance at working his way back to being a major league pitcher. his problem in the spring training, then in May he had two bad games and two good games. and the 5th game he left with the TJ injury in the 2nd inning.

So its a wash, no progress gained. He'll be out most of next season, so if he comes back in August or September its gonna be a wash too, as he it will be essentially just rehab starts.

Manoah's true comeback attempt will be in 2026, assuming he has no further injuries and if he is still with the team.

So they will need another staring pitcher for 2025, assuming they keep the big 3 and that Y-Rod is serviceable.

I do wonder if they go big game hunting (Corbin Burnes) or more for middle of the rotation types.

 

[MK78]

I do wonder if they go big game hunting (Corbin Burnes) or more for middle of the rotation types.

Would be nice. And a couple big bats, and not guys that are 35+

 

[MS]

But the Jays have the worst farm system in the league… despite a combo of Horwitz/Barger/Leo/OMart/Berroa leading one of the best lineups in AAA.

A lot of baseball people have started to opine more that the way we look at farm system rankings is all wrong. Instead of looking at strength of the farm while it is loaded with developing prospects, the teams that are considered to have the best farm system should be the teams who are most consistently churning out successful major league graduates, like Houston even though farm system rankings don't like them.

I still don't imagine the Jays would rank as one of the top teams in the league in graduation rate, but almost certainly better than all the farm system rankings which rate them bottom 5-10 in baseball.

Yeah, baseball prospect rankings seem to me to really overrate guys in A-ball based on their 'mystery box' effect and the tiny chance they could be an elite player and underrate players who have actually had success and moved up levels effectively and are close to MLB, especially if they are a little older and didn't have high draft pedigree.

A guy like Horwitz who looks like he'll be a quality MLB regular going forward basically never appeared in the Jays top-10 prospects. He was ranked #18 heading into 2023 despite raking at every level up to AAA and meanwhile at the same point Tucker Toman was rated as the #5 prospect based on a few games of rookie ball and two years later he still can't hit in A-ball.

And so you have this thing where a team that has a bunch of recent high picks in A-ball who will mostly turn into nothing is a 'great system' but a team that has a bunch of older prospects on the cusp of MLB is a 'bad system'.

The ranking of Clase in particular is baffling to me. This guy is the same age (2022-born) as most of the 2024 MLB draft picks and is already raking in AAA and has played in MLB. He hits for power and speed and plays a premium position in CF and to me he should pretty obviously be rated as though he was a 2024 1st round pick given that he's playing levels ahead of basically all of those peers right now. But instead he's rated as the #12 prospect behind Josh Kasevich (recent high pick!) who is 18 months older and who has a .691 OPS in AA as opposed to Clase's .852 OPS in AAA. How on earth does that make sense?

 

[tmlfan98]

I do wonder if they go big game hunting (Corbin Burnes) or more for middle of the rotation types.

Personally I think they need to be in on Corbin Burnes in the offseason. No other pending FA starting pitcher projects as well as him in the next couple of seasons, and the Jays arguably have 0 top of the rotation starters right now if Gausman's decline this season is real and will continue going forward. Viable plan Bs if they miss out on Burnes are Max Fried/Shane Bieber/Blake Snell (if he turns down his PO).

They also need to be in on either Alex Bregman for 3B, or Matt Chapman as plan B (if he turns down his PO). Top of the rotation SP and starting 3B are the 2 major needs the team has that if they don't fill them via FA, they will have to trade a lot to fill them via trade, and I also don't think they can fill those 2 needs internally.

The other needs would be easier to fill by finding bargains. There's been a lot of Jays fans talking about Santander, but IMO paying up to fill a corner OF need wouldn't be the best use of the offseason budget.

 

[Puckstuff]

The other needs would be easier to fill by finding bargains. There's been a lot of Jays fans talking about Santander, but IMO paying up to fill a corner OF need wouldn't be the best use of the offseason budget.

Who will be the Blue Jays' left fielder in 2025 if they don't sign or trade for an outfielder?

It seems essential to add at least one corner outfielder who can hit.

 

[Discoverer]

Personally I think they need to be in on Corbin Burnes in the offseason. No other pending FA starting pitcher projects as well as him in the next couple of seasons, and the Jays arguably have 0 top of the rotation starters right now if Gausman's decline this season is real and will continue going forward. Viable plan Bs if they miss out on Burnes are Max Fried/Shane Bieber/Blake Snell (if he turns down his PO).

They also need to be in on either Alex Bregman for 3B, or Matt Chapman as plan B (if he turns down his PO). Top of the rotation SP and starting 3B are the 2 major needs the team has that if they don't fill them via FA, they will have to trade a lot to fill them via trade, and I also don't think they can fill those 2 needs internally.

The other needs would be easier to fill by finding bargains. There's been a lot of Jays fans talking about Santander, but IMO paying up to fill a corner OF need wouldn't be the best use of the offseason budget.

I disagree that they specifically need to address 3B. I think the biggest need is a big bat rather than someone who plays a specific position.

At this point, I feel better about Ernie Clement at 3B going forward than I do about Davis Schneider in LF.

 

[tmlfan98]

I disagree that they specifically need to address 3B. I think the biggest need is a big bat rather than someone who plays a specific position.

At this point, I feel better about Ernie Clement at 3B going forward than I do about Davis Schneider in LF.

I feel good about neither of these things. I like Ernie, but if he is the starting 3B instead of his optimal role of backup 3B/SS and weak side platoon bat heading into 2025, I can say with certainty the team won't be competing next season. I agree that Schneider has definitely proven he cannot play in the outfield.

 

[MS]

Yeah, baseball prospect rankings seem to me to really overrate guys in A-ball based on their 'mystery box' effect and the tiny chance they could be an elite player and underrate players who have actually had success and moved up levels effectively and are close to MLB, especially if they are a little older and didn't have high draft pedigree.

A guy like Horwitz who looks like he'll be a quality MLB regular going forward basically never appeared in the Jays top-10 prospects. He was ranked #18 heading into 2023 despite raking at every level up to AAA and meanwhile at the same point Tucker Toman was rated as the #5 prospect based on a few games of rookie ball and two years later he still can't hit in A-ball.

And so you have this thing where a team that has a bunch of recent high picks in A-ball who will mostly turn into nothing is a 'great system' but a team that has a bunch of older prospects on the cusp of MLB is a 'bad system'.

The ranking of Clase in particular is baffling to me. This guy is the same age (2022-born) as most of the 2024 MLB draft picks and is already raking in AAA and has played in MLB. He hits for power and speed and plays a premium position in CF and to me he should pretty obviously be rated as though he was a 2024 1st round pick given that he's playing levels ahead of basically all of those peers right now. But instead he's rated as the #12 prospect behind Josh Kasevich (recent high pick!) who is 18 months older and who has a .691 OPS in AA as opposed to Clase's .852 OPS in AAA. How on earth does that make sense?

Quoting myself, but just to continue on :

In hockey, there's a general assumption that a 1st round pick immediately goes somewhere near the top of any team's prospect list (and 2nd round picks not far behind) and the numbers bear that out - most 1st round picks become NHL regulars and hit rates on top-10 picks in particular are extremely high. Plus, the 'window' to be a top NHL prospect is quite short - it's rare to have a top-50 prospect in the sport over the age of 21. So the math says that listing young, high draft picks as the best prospects in the sport makes sense.

But the math in baseball is not the same. There is *not* a strong correlation between being a high pick and a future quality MLB player. From the 1st round of the 2016 draft, 5/41 guys have managed the fairly low bar of a 5 WAR MLB career. 4/36 from 2017 have managed the same. 1 guy from the 1st round between those 2 drafts has hit 10 WAR. Statistically, high draft picks in MLB are not actually good prospects or likely to make MLB. But prospect rankings treat them like their hit rates are the same as for NHL players, such as on this recent list, despite none of these guys doing anything really yet in pro ball and nothing statistically saying they're likely MLB players :

Toronto Blue Jays Schedule, Top Prospects & Roster

www.baseballamerica.com

3. Trey Yesavage (2024 1st)
6. Arjun Nimmala (2023 1st)
9. Khal Stephen (2024 2nd)
11. Josh Kasevich (2022 2nd)

Then, on the flipside, you have this :

12. Jonathan Clase (age 22, already seen MLB action, raking in AAA)
18. Leo Jimenez (age 23, already seen MLB action, .416 OBP in AAA at a prime defensive position)
25. Will Wagner (age 25, absolutely raking in AAA)
NR. Steward Berroa (age 25, seen MLB action, .843 OPS in AAA)

I mentioned Kasevich vs. Clase earlier, but Kasevich vs. Jimenez is even funnier - Jimenez is younger, plays the same position, is putting up better numbers at higher levels, has shown more power and OBP to give him more upside ... but is a worse prospect, apparently.

Wagner is going to get an MLB callup soon but is somehow a worse prospect than Jace Bohrofen (recent draft pick, mystery box) who is hitting .230 with not a lot of power in A-ball at age 23.

It doesn't make sense. If you take the pool of players who are age 23-25 and producing above-average numbers in AAA, that is a better pool with a higher hit rate than recent high picks in A-ball. But nobody recognizes it as such.

 

[tmlfan98]

Who will be the Blue Jays' left fielder in 2025 if they don't sign or trade for an outfielder?

It seems essential to add at least one corner outfielder who can hit.

I can't really answer this question until we know who the FO running the 2025 offseason is. If we are going to be unfortunately forced to watch another season of Shatkins team building, they definitely would not sign Santander to play LF. He's a butcher there, and RF is his primary and best position on the field. It always has been.

A lot of Jays fans seem to think that because we were in on Teo in the offseason, and the Dodgers are okay with using Teo as a butcher in LF, that means the Jays were going to do it too. This is just my opinion, but based on Shatkins becoming obsessed with defense after the 2022 choke to Seattle and removing the 2 starting butcher corner OFs that same offseason (Gurriel and Teo), I think they tried to sign Teoscar to be the DH this season and only valued bringing his bat back.

If Shatkins didn't even trust Teoscar in RF anymore which is his primary and least bad position on the field, why are so many Jays fans assuming that because they were interested in bringing Teo back, they were also going to plug him in LF just because the Dodgers did? In the same season that they inexplicably ran back KK at CF despite having Varsho?

Teo at LF was never going to happen with this defense-obsessed FO. The only way something like signing Santander to play LF is a possibility is if Ed Rogers saves us and fires Shatkins into the sun. The targets that I brought up for the top of the rotation and 3B are Shatkins-friendly, if we are unfortunately going to be stuck with them.

 

[canucksfan]

I do wonder if they go big game hunting (Corbin Burnes) or more for middle of the rotation types.

They need a top pitcher and hitter. Wouldn’t surprise me they trade Bo and sign Adames.

 

[Discoverer]

I can't really answer this question until we know who the FO running the 2025 offseason is. If we are going to be unfortunately forced to watch another season of Shatkins team building, they definitely would not sign Santander to play LF. He's a butcher there, and RF is his primary and best position on the field. It always has been.

A lot of Jays fans seem to think that because we were in on Teo in the offseason, and the Dodgers are okay with using Teo as a butcher in LF, that means the Jays were going to do it too. This is just my opinion, but based on Shatkins becoming obsessed with defense after the 2022 choke to Seattle and removing the 2 starting butcher corner OFs that same offseason (Gurriel and Teo), I think they tried to sign Teoscar to be the DH this season and only valued bringing his bat back.

If Shatkins didn't even trust Teoscar in RF anymore which is his primary and least bad position on the field, why are so many Jays fans assuming that because they were interested in bringing Teo back, they were also going to plug him in LF just because the Dodgers did? In the same season that they inexplicably ran back KK at CF despite having Varsho?

Teo at LF was never going to happen with this defense-obsessed FO. The only way something like signing Santander to play LF is a possibility is if Ed Rogers saves us and fires Shatkins into the sun. The targets that I brought up for the top of the rotation and 3B are Shatkins-friendly, if we are unfortunately going to be stuck with them.

The only "defense-obsessed" moves I can really think of were bringing Kiermaier back and signing IKF.

They've focused on defense, but they've also brought in all-bat players like Belt and Turner and promoted players with no defined position to get their bats in the lineup.

I think the idea that they're just obsessed with defense doesn't have much backing. They've made a couple d-first moves the last couple years, but there's no way you can point to that as a clear direction going forward, especially since they've changed directions based on results a couple times.