Blue Jays GDT: 2024 v3 | Fri, May 17 | vs TB | 7pm ET/4pm PT | TBD vs Bassitt | ***Apple TV+ Game, no Sportsnet***

[Nineteen67]

Baseball is probably the only sports where you'll read things like RBIs don't matter hitting with RISP is just dumb luck and advanced stats are everything. In pretty much every other sports people recognize that some players are clutch and others are not. The whole some players will get you in playoffs (Plekanec) and others will get you a cup (Claude Lemieux).

It doesn't matter how good you do without RISP if you can't handle the pressure of having to hit a single with RISP and 2 outs to win the game you wont be of much use in the top 4-5. Many Jays hitters have this inability to hit the best pitchers in the game with RISP. It was clear as day in playoffs last year and it still is this season. It doesn't matter how well Biggio do in advanced stats i've seen enough of him to tell you a good pitchers will strike him out when it matters. Pedro Martinez would 100% strike him out with RISP 99% of the time. It applies to almost the entire lineup tbh.

I agree the Jays struggle to put hits together, but it’s hard to hit good pitching on the backfield at the Englebert complex.

You guys get waaaaay to caught up in analytics.

Sometimes the difference is a split hair.

 

[Eyedea]

You guys get waaaaay to caught up in analytics.

Nah people that argue against analytics just have incompatible views. You can't say Vladdy sucks and then argue RBIs are an accurate metric of a good hitter.

I shit you not, since Vladdy entered the league (2019) he is tied for 4th in RBIs in high leverage situations. In all situations, since 2019, he is 11th in RBIs. Why do people hate him then?

 

[CokenoPepsi]

Thing you gotta remember about Vladdy is he only 25 years old.....


....but eh

 

[LaP]

Sometimes the difference is a split hair.

Team composition can be important too. You can have 9 hitters who all could help another team but if you put them together it's not working. A team needs a little bit of everything. Guys who get on base and have speed. Guys who can hit with power. Guys who'll be there for their defense ... I feel like all Jays hitters are good players but they don't fit together well. They don't have an identity. It's not a fast team. It's not a team with power. Only ifentity i can see is team defense.

 

[Eyedea]

Time for a fun exercise. In a vacuum, which bat would you rather have?

Player A
671 PA
29 HR
106 RBI
111 OPS+

Player B
691 PA
24 HR
80 RBI
130 OPS+

I'll reveal the names and season later

I knew exactly who Player A was because that's basically his career in a nutshell lol.

We can even add Player C to the mix

664 PA
27 HR
62 RBI
147 OPS+

 

[LaP]

Time for a fun exercise. In a vacuum, which bat would you rather have?

Player A
671 PA
29 HR
106 RBI
111 OPS+

Player B
691 PA
24 HR
80 RBI
130 OPS+

I'll reveal the names and season later

It's a little bit silly to assume you can choose a bat based on the stats of one season only. The eye test is important. And statistically speaking one season is a small sample size. All those stats can vary from season to season including OPS+ even if it's a better indicator of how good a player is or not injuries and a problem with the coach can still influence that. Ohtani OPS+ variation between his best and worse seasons is 63 (121 versus 184) .

 

[Eyedea]

After everything that's been said, you can look around the league and see that plenty of all-star calibre players have gotten off to poor starts.

Arozarena, Yandy Diaz, Bregman, Carroll, Seager, Torres, Chourio, Bogaerts, Langford, Crawford, J-Rod, J-Ram, Goldy, Lindor, Riley, Olson, and Acuna Jr...

 

[Eyedea]

It's a little bit silly to assume you can choose a bat based on the stats of one season only. The eye test is important. And statistically speaking one season is a small sample size. All those stats can vary from season to season including OPS+ even if it's a better indicator of how good a player is or not injuries and a problem with the coach can still influence that. Ohtani OPS+ variation between his best and worse seasons is 63 (121 versus 184) .

Under this hypothetical you wouldn't be choosing the career arc, simply the bat to insert into the lineup. OP literally classified it as "in a vacuum". And exactly, the impact of the bat can change based on the complexion of the team. The point is you take the best hitter possible and you don't worry about the counting stats that are affected by things outside of the hitter's control. We're not worrying about season to season differences in OPS+, it's a hypothetical.

And even if we were to use Ohtani as an example, those first three seasons of his career wouldn't qualify as full years anyway. Shockingly enough he's gotten better as he aged as well, something we can't imagine being possible with Jays players.

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

It's a little bit silly to assume you can choose a bat based on the stats of one season only. The eye test is important. And statistically speaking one season is a small sample size. All those stats can vary from season to season including OPS+ even if it's a better indicator of how good a player is or not injuries and a problem with the coach can still influence that. Ohtani OPS+ variation between his best and worse seasons is 63 (121 versus 184) .

Like Eyedea said, you take the better hitter every time and not care about counting stats like R and RBI. It's not Player B's fault that Player A had a couple of guys who were good at getting on base batting in front of him, including one of the best hitters of this era.

Oddly enough, both players in my example were right in line with their career OPS+ that season, and are roughly the same age.

 

[The Nemesis]

You guys get waaaaay to caught up in analytics.

We're not talking about analytics. In fact we're talking about what is just about the most non-analytic stat in baseball, which is being touted for its value by the people who generally don't like analytics in the first place.

 

[MK78]

Varsho 2 run double!

 

[Eyedea]

Corbin might be the recipe to kickstart an offence.

 

[canucksfan]

It's funny because when you look at the 4-7 hitter the following are the OPS
.878
1.056
.810
.827

Those are excellent for those batting order positions.

Then 1-3 which are the drizzling shits
.610
.696
.552

 

[MK78]

Kikuchi gets out of 2/3rd nobody out.

 

[MK78]

Ernie with a triple!

Oy, and he gets thrown out at home by a mile.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Ernie with a triple!

Oy, and he gets thrown out at home by a mile.

Springer with 42% RBI chance, fails to convert. Ernie out at home.

Springer needs to get his game back, while batting 7th.

 

[Puckstuff]

The difference between the top 3 in the lineup and the next 4 is staggering right now.

 

[Eyedea]

Corbin might be the recipe to kickstart an offence.

Turns out that didn’t happen.

That’s bad.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Kikuchi gets out of 2/3rd nobody out.

Is he resigning here ?

 

[shaner8989]

Swanson go f*** yourself you pos. DFA this loser

 

[red devil]

Swanson facing the bottom of the order and unable to record an out, gives up a 3 run homerun to a pinch hitter

 

[habamillions]

Swanson facing the bottom of the order and unable to record an out, gives up a 3 run homerun to a pinch hitter

Guy has been terrible all year.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Swanson facing the bottom of the order and unable to record an out, gives up a 3 run homerun to a pinch hitter

He was good last year

On the struggle bus now

 

[GoonieFace]

Yikes Swanson, but this team can’t create runs. Corbin is batting practice and they made him look good

 

[MK78]

What was wrong with Kikuchi? he was absolutely dominating.

So f***ing what if he hit 100 pitches. God damn spreadsheets.