Blue Jays Discussion: 2024 Season (better title pending or maybe not ... )

[Kurtz]

On the flip side, the Yanks are 0-5 in ALCS’s since 2010. Part of their issue is that they can never rebuild. They have 185m committed to 6 players in 2025. Soto will command 40m+, they have other FAs like Torres, Holmes, Verdugo, arb increases to Cortes, Trevino, Schmidt, and their owner doesn’t want to empty the pockets like dad did.

We’ve seen teams successfully go through the rebuild since the Yanks last won in ‘09 like the Giants, Royals, Cubs, Astros, Nats, Braves, Rangers. Even other teams like the Phillies, Rays, and DBacks rebuilt and made it to the WS more recently than the Yanks.

I'd be fine with a 3-5 year rebuild if we come out looking like the Astros or Orioles on the other side.

Orioles especially were a wasteland when they started - worst farm and no major leaguers worth talking about. Look at them now.

 

[Discoverer]

Baseball needs offense to be entertaining. When the offense is lacking especially home runs, baseball isn't entertaining, because its not a back and forth sport.

I've always loved a good pitching matchup, and I find great defensive plays to be at least as exciting as a big hit.

What's taking away from the entertainment value of the team is that they're not winning. Winning a game 4-2 is way more entertaining than losing a game 10-8.

 

[Bjindaho]

I've always loved a good pitching matchup, and I find great defensive plays to be at least as exciting as a big hit.

What's taking away from the entertainment value of the team is that they're not winning. Winning a game 4-2 is way more entertaining than losing a game 10-8.

I will take option 3.

I think that either offense or defense can be entertaining, but the games that suck are the ones that they are never in or where you know that the team is one bad bounce from blowing the game.

The issue with this team is that they find ways to lose winnable games which is the sign of a bad team. On top of that, hindsight suggests that the roster assembled is probably not much better than a .500 team.

In a perfect world, every single person on the baseball side is let go (except Hale and the 1st and 3rd base coaches) and they start over with a proven coach and Hale as bench coach and the 1st and 3rd base coaches.

 

[Discoverer]

I'd be fine with a 3-5 year rebuild if we come out looking like the Astros or Orioles on the other side.

Orioles especially were a wasteland when they started - worst farm and no major leaguers worth talking about. Look at them now.

It's kind of funny to look back on the rebuild years and how horrible some people thought the team was when ultimately part of the problem was that it was too short and they didn't come close to bottoming out enough to load up on top talent.

 

[thewave]

It's kind of funny to look back on the rebuild years and how horrible some people thought the team was when ultimately part of the problem was that it was too short and they didn't come close to bottoming out enough to load up on top talent.

Are they on the right track yet? I was a big jays fan and then sort of stopped because it felt like they were mismanaged so bad. Like the Leafs really.

Are they getting better? Will they contend soon?

 

[Discoverer]

Are they on the right track yet? I was a big jays fan and then sort of stopped because it felt like they were mismanaged so bad. Like the Leafs really.

Are they getting better? Will they contend soon?

They've done the same as the Leafs: lots of strong regular seasons and nothing in the playoffs. They're currently having a bad season, though.

 

[Eyedea]

I'd be fine with a 3-5 year rebuild if we come out looking like the Astros or Orioles on the other side.

Orioles especially were a wasteland when they started - worst farm and no major leaguers worth talking about. Look at them now.

The O’s have an embarrassment of riches, but we also saw that with the Cubs back in 2015. Another important part is supplementing the talent and finding ways to trade surplus to fill other areas of need. They managed to win 1 WS but some big trades (Torres for Chapman, Eloy + Cease for Quintana), some struggles with players (Schwarber, Baez, Almora), some shitty people (Russell), and not willing to break the budget to retain talent signalled another retool.

7 top 100 in 2014
6 top 100 in 2015
6 top 100 in 2016
5 top 100 in 2017

They had a pretty good run and at least it culminated with the curse being broken. That took a full fledged 5 year rebuild. But you also hope you don’t become any one of the other projects that never get over the edge (White Sox, Rockies, Pirates, Tigers, etc. etc.).

 

[MS]

They won't be rebuilding and they shouldn't be rebuilding.

 

[tmlfan98]

Seems almost impossible to believe, but Jays offense now ranks 13th in the league with a 102 wRC+ against RHP (IIRC 3/4 of all MLB pitchers are RHP).

Since the team meeting on May 8 the Jays offense has a 112 wRC+ over their last 17 games, which would rank 6th in the league if this was what their offense was all season.

 

[Kurtz]

Seems almost impossible to believe, but Jays offense now ranks 13th in the league with a 102 wRC+ against RHP (IIRC 3/4 of all MLB pitchers are RHP).

Since the team meeting on May 8 the Jays offense has a 112 wRC+ against RHP over their last 17 games, which would rank 6th in the league if this was what their offense was all season.

If the keep facing Nastrini several times per month, they'll have no trouble getting to #1.

 

[tmlfan98]

If the keep facing Nastrini several times per month, they'll have no trouble getting to #1.

Good point the 2 Nastrini games were big boost games for the team's offensive numbers. However it seemed like last season and already multiple times this season the Jays were still getting carved even when teams were sending out various AAAA junkballers to start.

 

[The Nemesis]

As of today the MLB record books are integrating Negro Leagues records and including Negro League performances and history in the official record-keeping of major professional baseball.

This is fun for two reasons:

1) The unsurprising amount of hand-wringing from people who act like it's heresy to include those stats alongside "real" MLB ones without recognizing that all this move does is bring the Negro Leagues records up to the same point that numerous other leagues of the early days of organized pro baseball. The official record book of Major League Baseball has, since the 1960s, included records from 4 other major pro leagues from the late 1800s to mid 1910s that are not necessarily direct ancestors of the modern AL and NL but have been considered equivalent in talent and competition to the preeminent pro baseball of their eras. The fact that the Negro Leagues were not afforded the same consideration and inclusion was mostly down to a) racism and b) a lack of concrete and verified records of Negro Leagues competition. With the former having lessened with the passage of time and the latter having been rectified to the best of anyone's ability recently with a massive project to research, correct, restore, and verify as many game results and performances as possible, it's now reasonable to be able to put the Negro Leagues history alongside those other leagues as a major pro league of roughly equivlanet talent.


and 2) The fact that notoriously, virulently racist (even by the low standards of the time) Ty Cobb gets his career batting average record supplanted by Josh Gibson is hilarious.

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

Lol classic Rockies. The guy is having a great season offensively for once and they probably won't bother maximizing his trade value

As for the Jays being interested, I'm not sure if he can maintain the offensive breakout. Track record isn't great

https://x.com/i/web/status/1795808837448216840

 

[trellaine201]

Ohhhhnoooo we are so far out of any wild card spot. We need like 65 more wins lmao. Atkins lives in a Fantasy world.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Hopefully it’s a 6 game win streak by the time Baltimore rolls into town.

 

[Puckstuff]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1795920148945047682

 

[TGB]

Not sure why people think the Jays will trade Vladdy. The guy, who has a huge ego and no ties to the US, will not want to leave the team that hails him as the hero of baseball in the entire country. Well, unless he hires Boras as his agent or asks for a ridiculous payout.

The far most likely player to leave right now is...Biggio. He's a $4 million backup player that's worse defensively than Espinal was and has so far been no better offensively. With Barger having pretty much the same skill set, there's no need to keep him around.

Bigger trades the Jays will explore will be Kikuchi, given he's more valuable now and, well, Boras, and Jansen. I don't want them to trade Jansen. YOU don't want them to trade Jansen. We ALL don't want them to trade Jansen, but let's face it, if he continues to remain non-committal to contract extension talks, he's the most likely to bring in a big haul. And, of course, the package of prospects for someone. Really the only high level prospect they definitely won't deal is Martinez, the guy who puts up big numbers no matter how poor his average is (well, and Tiedman).

 

[The Nemesis]

Lol. Mets reliever Jorge Lopez got into it with an umpire, got ejected, threw his glove into the stands as he stormed off the field, then in the post-game presser he buried the team and called them the worst team in MLB.

In response the Mets DFA'd him.

 

[MS]

As of today the MLB record books are integrating Negro Leagues records and including Negro League performances and history in the official record-keeping of major professional baseball.

This is fun for two reasons:

1) The unsurprising amount of hand-wringing from people who act like it's heresy to include those stats alongside "real" MLB ones without recognizing that all this move does is bring the Negro Leagues records up to the same point that numerous other leagues of the early days of organized pro baseball. The official record book of Major League Baseball has, since the 1960s, included records from 4 other major pro leagues from the late 1800s to mid 1910s that are not necessarily direct ancestors of the modern AL and NL but have been considered equivalent in talent and competition to the preeminent pro baseball of their eras. The fact that the Negro Leagues were not afforded the same consideration and inclusion was mostly down to a) racism and b) a lack of concrete and verified records of Negro Leagues competition. With the former having lessened with the passage of time and the latter having been rectified to the best of anyone's ability recently with a massive project to research, correct, restore, and verify as many game results and performances as possible, it's now reasonable to be able to put the Negro Leagues history alongside those other leagues as a major pro league of roughly equivlanet talent.


and 2) The fact that notoriously, virulently racist (even by the low standards of the time) Ty Cobb gets his career batting average record supplanted by Josh Gibson is hilarious.

I'm someone who loves the Negro Leagues and loves researching players and stories about them and ... I don't love it. I also love statistics and the numbers are still too incomplete and the calibre of play is ... iffy compared to MLB of the time, to say the least. Guys were hitting .470 in some years.

Cobb was also certainly not one of the more racist players of his day (which is not to say he wasn't racist in a time when almost everyone was), and in his post-career was actually pro-integration and did a fair bit to help black baseball.

https://www.mlb.com/news/ty-cobb-history-built-on-inaccuracies-c178601094

90 years ago, Detroit Tigers legend Ty Cobb challenged myths of being maniacal racist

Detroit Tigers legend Ty Cobb carries a complicated legacy. But 90 years ago, he christened Hamtramck Stadium in honor of the Negro Leagues.

www.freep.com

 

[dredeye]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1795920148945047682

He's one of those pieces that if this team was what it was meant to be and you get a surprise addition like Schneider it propels you so far forward. But alas that is not the case. But I'm pumped he's here and maintaining and not just a one and done.

 

[Eyedea]

Lol. Mets reliever Jorge Lopez got into it with an umpire, got ejected, threw his glove into the stands as he stormed off the field, then in the post-game presser he buried the team and called them the worst team in MLB.

In response the Mets DFA'd him.

That’s amazing considering he was a part of the 18/19 Royals.

But this also sounds like a mistranslation. And this is exactly the reason why many foreign born players don’t like giving interviews in English.

 

[Discoverer]

I'm someone who loves the Negro Leagues and loves researching players and stories about them and ... I don't love it. I also love statistics and the numbers are still too incomplete and the calibre of play is ... iffy compared to MLB of the time, to say the least. Guys were hitting .470 in some years.

Cobb was also certainly not one of the more racist players of his day (which is not to say he wasn't racist in a time when almost everyone was), and in his post-career was actually pro-integration and did a fair bit to help black baseball.

https://www.mlb.com/news/ty-cobb-history-built-on-inaccuracies-c178601094

90 years ago, Detroit Tigers legend Ty Cobb challenged myths of being maniacal racist

Detroit Tigers legend Ty Cobb carries a complicated legacy. But 90 years ago, he christened Hamtramck Stadium in honor of the Negro Leagues.

www.freep.com

I don't know... prior to Negro League stats being added, we were already comparing players from different leagues and wildly different eras and levels of competition. Hugh Duffy hitting .440 isn't much less ridiculous, is it? There were also enough players who moved to the MLB and immediately became stars that I don't know how much of an issue the competition was.

I get the concerns about the incomplete stats (and even the length of the seasons they played), but they were excluded from the majors and this is the option they had, so I have no issue with those stats being thrown in with the rest of them.

 

[MS]

I don't know... prior to Negro League stats being added, we were already comparing players from different leagues and wildly different eras and levels of competition. Hugh Duffy hitting .440 isn't much less ridiculous, is it? There were also enough players who moved to the MLB and immediately became stars that I don't know how much of an issue the competition was.

I get the concerns about the incomplete stats (and even the length of the seasons they played), but they were excluded from the majors and this is the option they had, so I have no issue with those stats being thrown in with the rest of them.

Duffy hit .440 in the NL in 1894 - that's just the evolution of the sport over time, like Joe Malone's 1917-18 NHL stats.

To me it's like if the NHL considered WHA stats official and we started counting Gordie Howe and Bobby Hull's obviously skewed age 35+ stats as 'real' NHL points equivalent with what Guy Lafleur was doing at the time. Or if when McDavid and Kucherov were chasing 100 assists, they were joining a group with Orr, Gretzky, Lemieux ... and Andre Lacroix. It just kind of hits wrong, to me.

I get wanting to right the massive historical wrong that happened but I also don't think those leagues were remotely equivalent, even if some of the players in it would have been superstars if they'd been allowed to be in MLB. I mean, Jackie Robinson put up worse numbers in AAA with Montreal than he did the year prior in the Negro Leagues. And we can see the same effect in a huge way with Larry Doby, Monte Irvin, etc, who were the prime-age superstars of the day when they were able to integrate.

It's a weird situation. I don't really know the right answer.

Edit : Just to add to this, the last person to hit .400 in the major leagues is now not Ted Williams, it's ... Artie Wilson in 1948 at a mindblowing .433. Wilson was 27 at the time and signed with the NY Giants for 1949 and spent 3 years in their system in the theoretical prime of his career, and got to MLB for all of 19 games where he hit .182. Are we really going to equate what Wilson did with what Williams did? Again, it's weird and I don't know the right answer.

 

[Discoverer]

Duffy hit .440 in the NL in 1894 - that's just the evolution of the sport over time, like Joe Malone's 1917-18 NHL stats.

To me it's like if the NHL considered WHA stats official and we started counting Gordie Howe and Bobby Hull's obviously skewed age 35+ stats as 'real' NHL points equivalent with what Guy Lafleur was doing at the time. Or if when McDavid and Kucherov were chasing 100 assists, they were joining a group with Orr, Gretzky, Lemieux ... and Andre Lacroix. It just kind of hits wrong, to me.

I get wanting to right the massive historical wrong that happened but I also don't think those leagues were remotely equivalent, even if some of the players in it would have been superstars if they'd been allowed to be in MLB. I mean, Jackie Robinson put up worse numbers in AAA with Montreal than he did the year prior in the Negro Leagues. And we can see the same effect in a huge way with Larry Doby, Monte Irvin, etc, who were the prime-age superstars of the day when they were able to integrate.

It's a weird situation. I don't really know the right answer.

Edit : Just to add to this, the last person to hit .400 in the major leagues is now not Ted Williams, it's ... Artie Wilson in 1948 at a mindblowing .433. Wilson was 27 at the time and signed with the NY Giants for 1949 and spent 3 years in their system in the theoretical prime of his career, and got to MLB for all of 19 games where he hit .182. Are we really going to equate what Wilson did with what Williams did? Again, it's weird and I don't know the right answer.

I tend to see integration as part of the evolution of the sport, too. There were different leagues at different times (particularly pre-1903) and all of those leagues already have their stats included in the record books. I don't see why the Negro Leagues should be any different.

But yeah, in general, I agree that the incomplete data is more of an issue than the quality of competition and tends to complicate things a bit. Wilson hit .433 that year in 29 games. His team actually played 93, but we don't have information on enough games.

 

[MS]

I tend to see integration as part of the evolution of the sport, too. There were different leagues at different times (particularly pre-1903) and all of those leagues already have their stats included in the record books. I don't see why the Negro Leagues should be any different.

But yeah, in general, I agree that the incomplete data is more of an issue than the quality of competition and tends to complicate things a bit. Wilson hit .433 that year in 29 games. His team actually played 93, but we don't have information on enough games.

To me, it's easy if it's Josh Gibson. Obviously an all-time great, inner-circle BHOF guy, one of the greatest players in history. If he turns up at the top of a record list, whatever.

But it's all the other stuff that falls in behind that, and there's a lot of stuff that now just creates an absolute mess.

And yeah, Wilson takes Williams' distinction away based on a year where we have data for only 1/3 of his games. So he probably didn't actually hit .433 and his .433 is clearly not an MLB equivalent .433 ... and it's just wrong. It's like if when Wayne Gretzky set the NHL assist record the official position was taking it away from Andre Lacroix and not Bobby Orr. It's wrong - anybody can see it's wrong, and even though I get trying to recognize players who were treated so badly, I don't know if this is the way to be doing it.

It's one thing if you're just using it for counting stats like HR and RBI (and it still wouldn't be great at that) but it's a total other thing when so many of the stats are averages/percentages/ratios. And things like historic batting average stats are now just going to be a total circus.