GDT: 2024 NHL Sharks Lottery Draft (update: We won! Sharks will pick 1st for the first time ever!)

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PacificOceanPotion

Registered User
Jun 19, 2009
6,065
4,789
Whether we pick 1st or 3rd, I’m honestly ok. I’ve come to terms with the idea that no matter what, we’re gonna walk out a better team with whoever we get. Celebrini accelerates things a bit but just picking in the top 3, with potentially the 14th pick to boot, really appears that sunny days are ahead for this franchise. I honestly don’t think we’re gonna be on this rebuilding merry go round like some other teams have been for what seems like the past 15 years.
 

Shark Finn

∀dministrator
Jan 5, 2012
2,438
2,223
Herwood
The lottery begins during the night at 1:30 for me. At some point I'll probably wake up like I would wake up to a terrible nightmare, but with the thought that something terrible and evil has just happened...
 

Barrie22

Shark fan in hiding
Aug 11, 2009
25,035
6,293
ontario
The lottery begins during the night at 1:30 for me. At some point I'll probably wake up like I would wake up to a terrible nightmare, but with the thought that something terrible and evil has just happened...
And to find out that the Sharks have been stripped of all 1st round picks because of some kind of scandal in the front office.
 
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landshark

They'll paint the donkey teal if you pay.
Sponsor
Mar 15, 2003
3,456
2,724
outer richmond dist
If you started on a bottle I would understand....but work.....
No bottle anymore. Just flowers and mushrooms. ☮️ 🍄 Lucky me, I aged out of drinking a few years ago. It's been good for my health and great for my wallet.

I like to get done with work as soon as possible most days. Today I woke up extra early knowing I'd want to be off work and ready to bitch about the hawks winning the lotto. Being done with work at 2:30 or 3 PM is nice in general.
 

stator

Registered User
Apr 17, 2012
5,041
1,028
San Jose
Here's what I've been able to gather about lotteries.

Cheating in lotteries has been long established over time. In the early days, we use to see balls colliding in a chamber with a few coming out of the gate. We don't see that anymore, or at least I haven't.

It's because those that are involved in the lottery found out they can cheat with friends by injecting water into a few of the balls to gain an advantage. It came to ahead on live television when one of the balls burst with water. I don't remember which state lottery that was.

So lottery boards switched to computer generated numbers. Some found ways to cheat that by altering code. They can do this since computers are not random, and if those were, computers would not work. Unless, of course, you think of the old days of MS Windows with blue screens. Those seem very much random to me, lol.

How this works is the computer is programmed with a random number generator. It's actually anything but random. The random-ness comes with with the seed number. If one uses the same seed number, they get the same output everything. So the seed number needs to be completely random. Most lottery boards that I can get details on measure radioactivity of a certain element that's in the air. They'll pick an element that has variable radioactivity to generate the seed number.

But even this can be exploited by unscrupulous people. There's an infamous rigged multi-state lottery where the lottery board "security officer" interjected code into the algorithm that used a pre-programmed seed number on two days out of the year. So if the lottery was drawn on either of those two days, they knew the numbers that would win.

Moving to the NHL lottery, it seems they took this into account and actually hold two lotteries based each on the ball and computer method. Up first is the computer where a 1,000 entries are created and randomly assigned to lottery teams. The amount each team gets is based on their lottery percentage.

Then the second stage lottery where balls are used. I couldn't find whether these two stages are held on the same day, or different days. If different days, how far apart are those held either.

The ball lottery uses 14 multiple numbered balls for a total of 1,001 combinations. So when the first of the lottery numbers come out, they cross-reference the computer generated list to see which team was randomly assigned that number. Same thing is done for the second draw.

So if someone that's involved with the accounting firm, or NHL, that wants to give their favorite team better odds, they would need to rig both lotteries. Or would they? Not necessarily.

The law of averages is going to see that all 1,000 numbers are used near equally over time. One could decide to rig the program so their favorite team is assigned numbers that are the most under-represented in the ball drawing.

This would not be as effective has rigging both lottery methods, computer and balls. That would be much harder as I'm sure the NHL restricts access to both so that the same people do not manage both. Or we hope so.

Notice I said there are 1,001 number combinations on the ball lottery but 1,000 combinations on the computer lottery? The NHL has said they throw out one of the numbers, but does that skew the randomness? There's also a rumor I've found that the commission can choose to assign that to a team of their choice. Sort like the house's favoritism in the green numbers on the roulette wheel.

The other question that has no answers that I can find is what happens when a team is ineligible for the lottery due to winning it twice in the last five years. How do they account for that without skewing the odds. Do they remove that team from the computer generated list. Do they assign it the lowest odds in hopes that it does not win the draw.

Do they re-adjust the lottery system for a smaller computer generated list and smaller combinations on the ball lottery? That would be a major hassle.

The NHL doesn't answer my questions. I'm sure if they did they would basically say that secrecy is a component of securing the lottery. It's harder to rig a lottery if one doesn't have a complete understand on the details.
 

NiWa

Registered User
Nov 27, 2003
405
503
Ireland
Notice I said there are 1,001 number combinations on the ball lottery but 1,000 combinations on the computer lottery? The NHL has said they throw out one of the numbers, but does that skew the randomness? There's also a rumor I've found that the commission can choose to assign that to a team of their choice. Sort like the house's favoritism in the green numbers on the roulette wheel.

At least with this mystery I can help, the draft guide has been released here: https://media.nhl.com/site/asset/public/ext/2023-24/2024DraftLotteryGuide.pdf
It clearly states that in case of the 1001's combination of numbers being drawn, that draw will be repeated (And NOT just assigned to a team of the commission's choice).

The other question that has no answers that I can find is what happens when a team is ineligible for the lottery due to winning it twice in the last five years. How do they account for that without skewing the odds. Do they remove that team from the computer generated list. Do they assign it the lowest odds in hopes that it does not win the draw.

Do they re-adjust the lottery system for a smaller computer generated list and smaller combinations on the ball lottery? That would be a major hassle.
Very good question to which I haven't seen answers yet either.
My guess though would be that they assign the numbers to the team, but if that teams combination comes up, they will just redraw.
 

Nighthock

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Jul 25, 2007
18,160
1,430
Nevada
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All day...
 
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