15-10-5 in their next 30 would put them at a 77 points and a 0.469 Pts%. Let’s assume a 15% regression from other teams current Pts% due to their TDL moves: in this scenario the CBJ should be picking at 8OA (true 10OA worst case) or better. The “best” they can probably pick is 3OA (5OA worst case). If you assume other teams regress 10% instead, the CBJ move to picking 6OA (8OA) or better even going 15-10-5.
Last year the CBJ went 9-16-5 (0.383 Pts%) in their last 30. 16-32-4 (0.346 Pts%) in their first 52. About an 11% improvement for the last 30 GP.
If the CBJ’s last 30 games replicate last year (improving 11%) I don’t see any way where they aren’t picking 4OA (6OA).
* * * *
Long story short, if you are a CBJ fan looking for draft prospects to check up on, a safe bet even with a win streak seems like 5OA - 9OA.
I found this kind of confusing. We're currently solidly 4th last, and closer to 3rd last than 5th last. A team finishing 4th last has a 35% chance of drafting top 4, and the 3rd last team has a 70% chance of top 4.
5OA to 9OA players
S. Dickinson London
C. Lindstrom Medicine Hat
K. Helenius Jukurit
C. Eiserman USDP
Z. Buium Denver
B. Catton Spokane
Z. Parekh Saginaw
I tend to think that it's unlikely that the first four teams pass on Lindstrom. Some teams won't be as interested but the teams that do like him will be taking him as soon as possible. I also tend to think that there will be less of an infatuation with a player like Dickinson, who is good in a lot of ways but not special. Silayev is an interesting case, definitely special, but his play has supposedly dropped off significantly, I don't think he's a lock for top 4. Eiserman is another special one where some teams will be much more interested than others.
Here's a top 9 mock, using tankathon's lottery simulator.
ANA -- CELEBRINI, C
SJS -- LINDSTROM, F
CHI -- DEMIDOV, F
CBJ -- LEVSHUNOV, RD
OTT -- EISERMAN, W
BUF -- CATTON, F
AZC -- BUIUM, LD
MTL -- SILAYEV, LD
SEA -- DICKINSON, LD
There's an interesting dynamic where the 3rd last through 6th to last place teams are all loaded with LD already. So that contributes to the chances of them sliding.
Ottawa would want an RD but there's only one in this range, and I have the Jackets nabbing Levshunov here.
Buium looks to have special hockey sense, so I think some teams will jump on that. Arizona will need D, and they already took a fast giant in Simashev last year.
I could see Montreal FO under very heavy pressure to not take a D this year, after taking Reinbacher last year. Their fans are brutal. But they won't have any high end forwards left to pick from, there aren't many this year.
