GDT: 2024 NHL Draft Thread

[Cowumbus]

Meaningless January mini-mock:

1 SJ: Celebrini -- Obvious BPA choice, especially for a rebuilding team lacking quality center talent
2 CHI: Lindstrom -- Big strong C is a nice complement behind Bedard for their future top-6
3 ANA: Jiricek -- likely will be looking at RDs with the top pick, and they're not afraid to "reach" for highest upside guy, despite his major injury
4 OTT: Levshunov -- Sens also want an RD or a toolsy LD. It's a coin flip between Levshunov and Silayev
5 CBJ: Silayev -- Disappointed that Ducks took the RD they wanted, they will settle for best available two-way LD left on the board, after a lengthy Silayev vs Dickinson debate in scouts' final pre-draft meeting.

If Jiricek went 3OA, or even top5 at this point I would be shocked. He has always been in the second or third tier, somewhere from 8-15OA. I don’t see how after his WJC injury (out for the season), he could move up the pecking order. He seems like a good candidate to fall a bit in the draft actually, due to decency bias / injury concerns.

If picking a D, I think I might prefer Dickinson due to contracts and potentially having to wait additional years after 2026 to get Silayev to NA.

 

[koteka]

ANA: Jiricek -- likely will be looking at RDs with the top pick, and they're not afraid to "reach" for highest upside guy, despite his major injury

Anaheim is really interesting. What if they trade their pick to Nashville for something around Askarov and Nashville’s pick and grab a right D like EJ Emery with the Nashville pick. And then Nashville drafts Catton or Helenius. Then Anaheim looks scary good with young talent all over the place.

 

[Xoggz22]

Meaningless January mini-mock:

1 SJ: Celebrini -- Obvious BPA choice, especially for a rebuilding team lacking quality center talent
2 CHI: Lindstrom -- Big strong C is a nice complement behind Bedard for their future top-6
3 ANA: Jiricek -- likely will be looking at RDs with the top pick, and they're not afraid to "reach" for highest upside guy, despite his major injury
4 OTT: Levshunov -- Sens also want an RD or a toolsy LD. It's a coin flip between Levshunov and Silayev
5 CBJ: Silayev -- Disappointed that Ducks took the RD they wanted, they will settle for best available two-way LD left on the board, after a lengthy Silayev vs Dickinson debate in scouts' final pre-draft meeting.

Don't see Jiricek going that high. This draft appears to be pretty deep on D and I don't see Salayev getting down to 5. Only way that happens is if the top group fears the Russian factor. I could see Salayev as high as #2 to CHI but who are we kidding. Hawks win the draft yet again and take Celbrini.

My useless early top 5 would be:

1) Celebrini
2) Levshunov
3) Lindstrom
4) Silayev
5) Dickinson

 

[ThisIsMyAlibi]

Blow it up.

 

[majormajor]

No point in "blowing it up" for a tankjob, this is a draft where you can get the same guy at 8 as at 3, and maybe also a draft where the 2nd and 3rd picks turn into nobodies.

Don't see Jiricek going that high. This draft appears to be pretty deep on D and I don't see Salayev getting down to 5. Only way that happens is if the top group fears the Russian factor. I could see Salayev as high as #2 to CHI but who are we kidding. Hawks win the draft yet again and take Celbrini.

I haven't settled on Silyayev yet. The Tyler Myers comparisons are a little too close. Someone will take him high regardless though.

 

[Cowumbus]

Saku Koivus son

 

[Cowumbus]

No point in "blowing it up" for a tankjob, this is a draft where you can get the same guy at 8 as at 3, and maybe also a draft where the 2nd and 3rd picks turn into nobodies.

Do we even have anything to blow up? I guess Jenner/Werenski but that would be dumb. We are doing fine tanking as is

 

[alphafox]

Honestly, are any of our "leadership corps" worth more on the team than the assets that we could get for them? Jenner is a grinder who is closing in on the end of his career and won't be here by the time Fantilli, Jiricek, Mateychuck, Johnson, and whoever we pick next reach whatever their ceilings are. Add that he is at best a leader who has presided over a stagnated team since Foligno left and his leadership means less than nothing as far as I can see. Werenski is in the same boat, a better player but is no longer on the track to be elite and someone who clearly can't keep the team pulling in the same direction as a veteran with a young team. At the very least take the opportunity to be realistic about when our window will open so we have a bit of hope for competing for cups rather than just hoping we squeak into the playoffs.

 

[stevo61]

Honestly, are any of our "leadership corps" worth more on the team than the assets that we could get for them? Jenner is a grinder who is closing in on the end of his career and won't be here by the time Fantilli, Jiricek, Mateychuck, Johnson, and whoever we pick next reach whatever their ceilings are. Add that he is at best a leader who has presided over a stagnated team since Foligno left and his leadership means less than nothing as far as I can see. Werenski is in the same boat, a better player but is no longer on the track to be elite and someone who clearly can't keep the team pulling in the same direction as a veteran with a young team. At the very least take the opportunity to be realistic about when our window will open so we have a bit of hope for competing for cups rather than just hoping we squeak into the playoffs.

Jenner is 30 and how long do you think it will take the kids to reach their ceilings or close enough to it to be competitive?

 

[Cowumbus]

Jenner is 30 and how long do you think it will take the kids to reach their ceilings or close enough to it to be competitive?

2-5 years from now.

Jenner’s value is probably at an all time high currently, so if you are purely basing it on getting the maximum return, it makes sense to move him.

I would not. Unless we knew we could take a run at someone in UFA like Reinhart.

 

[EspenK]

2-5 years from now.

Jenner’s value is probably at an all time high currently, so if you are purely basing it on getting the maximum return, it makes sense to move him.

I would not. Unless we knew we could take a run at someone in UFA like Reinhart.

I have no problem trading Jenner. But I would only trade him for someone who is on track to being a top 6 player. We don't need any more draft choices at the moment but if there was a top prospect who is not in the NHL only because his team doesn't have room for him then I'd make the deal in a heartbeat. I have no idea if such a guy exists (probably not) but that's what it would take.

 

[alphafox]

Jenner is 30 and how long do you think it will take the kids to reach their ceilings or close enough to it to be competitive?

I think Jenner given his style falls off a cliff in 2-3 years. He's always been a below-average skater and the game is getting faster. I have the "kids" hitting their stride in probably 3-4 years.

Fowards:
-Fantilli: Looks like an exception to the rookie workload and will likely be entering the peak of his career where he can dominate a game (if things actually go well for us development-wise).

-KJ, Sillinger: Looks like they are coming out of their sophomore slumps and haven't been completely ruined (knock on wood) and another couple of years may put them in the second-line/first-line tweener category. to provide a critical depth scoring

-Marchenko and Chinakov: Should be entering their absolute prime given the age issues

-Brindley: Far more exciting than I thought looks like he could end up a first liner and play driver in support of Fantilli if he can maximize the physical tools.

Defense: 3-4 years should also be enough time for the D prospects to sort themselves out and make an impact with Jiricek, Mateychuck, Svozil, and Ceulemans ready to upgrade over our current stable particularly if we can push Werenksi and Severson to the second pair. This probability increases assuming we draft a couple of D this year after we trade Provorov/Jenner/Laine/etc.

Goalie: No idea but at this point I either throw draft picks at it for the next years or solve it through ufa.

 

[majormajor]

2-5 years from now.

Jenner’s value is probably at an all time high currently, so if you are purely basing it on getting the maximum return, it makes sense to move him.

I would not. Unless we knew we could take a run at someone in UFA like Reinhart.

I feel like this should be obvious but players like Reinhart very often end up signing with teams like Florida and Vegas partly because they're not the type of teams to trade away their best veterans. They're good, but they're also committed and not a kindergarten.

On another point, for those who want to trade Jenner (not me), peak value Jenner is not necessarily the time. You can likely get a 1st regardless, this year or next or maybe the following years. Case in point, Foligno and Savard were both solidly past their primes the year they were moved for 1st rounders.

I think Jenner given his style falls off a cliff in 2-3 years. He's always been a below-average skater and the game is getting faster. I have the "kids" hitting their stride in probably 3-4 years.

Jenner is faster than we give him credit for, I think he's a better skater now than he's ever been in his career.

People have been going on about his impending decline for a couple years now, and all he's done is get better and better. Of course he will fall off at some point, but we're officially bad at predicting when.

 

[squashmaple]

Now is not the time to trade Jenner. Nor is this summer. I'd say the earliest I would entertain a Jenner trade is summer 2025, and even then, I don't think I would do it. The kids are squeezing him out of a top-six role, but there's nothing wrong with retaining a veteran with his skillset at his excellent contract even as the kids grow. Let Brindley go back to school another year or over-ripen in the AHL. What does another late first do for a team with this many high-end prospects and young NHLers, really? The player we got with Toronto's first for Foligno in 2021 is in the AHL now and still looks two years away from contributing at the NHL level. Picking some kid this summer who won't reach the NHL til 2029 is in no way more important than Boone Jenner on the roster right now.

I cannot believe we're seriously discussing selling off our literal only veteran forward. Having Boone Jenner on the team is a good thing. And I say this as someone who has never even particularly liked Boone Jenner.

 

[CharlotteJacket]

Of the 37 games we have left to play. We'll be favored on paper against only 6 or 7. Lets play ot the string and see what happens. I would only trade players at the TDL too clear room for our youngsters. Boone, Zach or Laine are not going to bring jaw dropping returns for us so stick with the players we know.

 

[Cowumbus]

On another point, for those who want to trade Jenner (not me), peak value Jenner is not necessarily the time. You can likely get a 1st regardless, this year or next or maybe the following years. Case in point, Foligno and Savard were both solidly past their primes the year they were moved for 1st rounders.

Is Boone Jenner at 3.75 for 3 more years not more valuable than Boone Jenner at 3.75 for 2 years, to a team like Edmonton, Canucks, Toronto, Tampa? We are talking about a guy with good size, plays “the right way” and is good for 40+ points a year on a great team friendly deal. The Canucks would love to have a 2/3C at that price point for the next few years, IMO.

I look at the Horvat trade and think Jenner could get close to it.
1st + B level prospect + average roster player
Again, I am okay keeping him.

 

[koteka]

Macklin Celebrini the unanimous No. 1 prospect in Bob McKenzie's mid-season draft ranking | TSN

Ten out of 10 NHL team scouts surveyed by TSN have the 17-year-old Boston University freshman centre at No. 1. Almost all of them can’t see anyone other than Celebrini going first overall on June 28.

www.tsn.ca

 

[Aaaarrgghh]

No point in "blowing it up" for a tankjob, this is a draft where you can get the same guy at 8 as at 3, and maybe also a draft where the 2nd and 3rd picks turn into nobodies.

I haven't settled on Silyayev yet. The Tyler Myers comparisons are a little too close. Someone will take him high regardless though.

From what I've heard (and I mostly only listen to different scouts, so I am pretty much just another idiot on the internet) both he and Levshunov make bonehead decisions frequently and are quite inconsistent. That may be more forgivable if you're playing a lot of minutes in the KHL than if you're playing in the NCAA. Based on that, I'd at least prefer Silayev to Levshunov. Of course, Levshunov might be available sooner. Of the other defensemen, I like what I hear about Dickinson and Buium more, personally. They are described as slightly smarter, particularly the latter.

 

[majormajor]

From what I've heard (and I mostly only listen to different scouts, so I am pretty much just another idiot on the internet) both he and Levshunov make bonehead decisions frequently and are quite inconsistent. That may be more forgivable if you're playing a lot of minutes in the KHL than if you're playing in the NCAA. Based on that, I'd at least prefer Silayev to Levshunov. Of course, Levshunov might be available sooner. Of the other defensemen, I like what I hear about Dickinson and Buium more, personally. They are described as slightly smarter, particularly the latter.

I haven't looked into it but I've heard folks complain about Dickinson's boneheaded decisions a few times.

Regarding Levshunov vs Silayev, taking a KHL player that Jarmo can't rush to the NHL is a big plus.

Silayev was getting some Hedman and Chara mentions in Mckenzie's midterms, if he's anything like that he should go #2. Though he currently doesn't look like that to me, very very raw.

 

[EspenK]

Based strictly on the McK rankings I'd take Levshunov or Lindstrom. I know we need D but an almost sure shot #2 C is very appealing.

 

[Aaaarrgghh]

I haven't looked into it but I've heard folks complain about Dickinson's boneheaded decisions a few times.

Regarding Levshunov vs Silayev, taking a KHL player that Jarmo can't rush to the NHL is a big plus.

Silayev was getting some Hedman and Chara mentions in Mckenzie's midterms, if he's anything like that he should go #2. Though he currently doesn't look like that to me, very very raw.

Yeah, I've heard people say that about Dickinson as well. But I've also heard people call him smart and well-rounded. I haven't heard anyone call Silayev or Levshunov that. That's the reason I said "slightly" smarter. But yes, none of three are generally agreed to be particularly smart in their play. At the moment, Buium is my favourite D in the draft.

What I read about his #2 ranking basically boiled down to "he's big and can skate, he'll at the very least be useful." Some GM is bound to fall in love with him.

Based strictly on the McK rankings I'd take Levshunov or Lindstrom. I know we need D but an almost sure shot #2 C is very appealing.

I love what I've looked up about Helenius. Smart, well-rounded and competitive. I've heard a lot of noise about Catton, but haven't looked him up too much.

 

[Cheddarcheese]

i don't think you guys realize how compete of a player boone is.... and at his cap hit you got to be crazy to trade him. we dont need anymore picks or prospect. Brindley isn't playing next year he has a ton of holes in his game, he will be a fantastic player but is likely two seasons away. Boone is a leader and players the right way. unless we get Pettersson hes not getting moved

 

[Napoli]

I'm very much in the draft Berkly Catton group.

Really good skater, defensively responsible, amazing vision all the while playing on one of the worst teams in the WHL. Just an absolute play driver.

Some says he's "just a 2nd line center" but I think people are selling him short. He basically is in the middle of every goal scored for Spokane. I think he and Fantilli would be an amazing 1-2 punch down the middle.

By the end of the year I think he'll be a surefire top 5 pick and hopefully Jarmo grabs him.

 

[stevo61]

I'm very much in the draft Berkly Catton group.

Really good skater, defensively responsible, amazing vision all the while playing on one of the worst teams in the WHL. Just an absolute play driver.

Some says he's "just a 2nd line center" but I think people are selling him short. He basically is in the middle of every goal scored for Spokane. I think he and Fantilli would be an amazing 1-2 punch down the middle.

By the end of the year I think he'll be a surefire top 5 pick and hopefully Jarmo grabs him.

sub 6'0" center along with all the defensemen available it will be interesting to see how things shake out. If he continues his pace over the same games played as Benson he would match his total from a year ago exactly. Maybe Benson looking as good as he did early makes a team or 2 realize maybe they shouldnt overthink size if they like the player

 

[5th Line Fanatic]

Assuming we're drafting somewhere in the top 5, this is a pretty obvious and easy decision for me- draft whomever is left from Celebrini, Silayev, Levshunov, Lidstrom, or Dickinson.
We have plenty of wingers and little guys, so I'd take the Center or the big LD.

If we are drafting 6 or below, I'd look to trade down into the 10-15 range or take BPA.