GDT: 2024 NHL Draft Thread

[squashmaple]

all of the silayev stuff (and dickinson, to a lesser extent) is rooted in a misunderstanding of what teams actually get out of the draft imo.

do the blue jackets need to improve defensively? yes. does their current defensive core lack physicality? sure. does drafting a 18-year-old in a position that takes much longer to develop fix any of that within the next few years? nope.

it's far better to draft BPA (regardless of position) and, if there's overlap positionally or skill-wise with other prospects, you can just live with that.

defensemen take longer to develop, and the specific kind of defenseman that the jackets are looking for is harder to project at 18 + takes longer to develop, so… just take BPA and trade a 'redundant' player at a later date for a guy who's actually NHL-ready in that role?

it's a much smarter use of assets, unless they think that dickinson and silayev are sure-thing top-pair guys who will also provide value in offense/zone exits.

most of the remaining playoff teams are really good down the middle, but that doesn't necessarily mean that it's all big guys. vincent trocheck, for example, is small but he's awesome in his role.

i'd love helenius because he could be the trocheck to fantilli's zibinejad (or the RNH to his draisaitl) – a super smart, competitive center who drives play at both ends and plays the game the right way.

the trochek to fantilli's zibanejad is currently a kid we've never heard of whose rights are owned by another team, who's probably still in college, europe, or the chl.

i catch downvotes all the time on r/bluejackets for suggesting using our huge prospect pool to acquire players further along in development. if you keep pinning your hopes on 18yos, they'll disappoint you then make you mad when they pop off at age 23 somewhere else. what do i care about jordan dumais or corson ceulemans right now if i can package them with picks for, say, marco rossi (this is simply the first name that popped into my head as an age-appropriate target).

 

[cbjthrowaway]

the trochek to fantilli's zibanejad is currently a kid we've never heard of whose rights are owned by another team, who's probably still in college, europe, or the chl.

the larger point is that good rosters are built from the top down, and while the jackets have pieces in the pipeline that will (fantilli) or could (kj, jiricek, mateychuk) eventually fit those roles, they still need more time to cook.

adding size/physicality through the draft, or addressing current needs, should take a backseat to finding the best player available, regardless of redundancies/current roster needs.

i catch downvotes all the time on r/bluejackets for suggesting using our huge prospect pool to acquire players further along in development. if you keep pinning your hopes on 18yos, they'll disappoint you then make you mad when they pop off at age 23 somewhere else. what do i care about jordan dumais or corson ceulemans right now if i can package them with picks for, say, marco rossi (this is simply the first name that popped into my head as an age-appropriate target).

i'll go one further and say that this should apply more to the RFAs who still have uncertain outcomes. long-term deals for guys who are talented but not established carries a lot of risk, and the benefits of a bridge (short-term cap flexiblity) are wasted on CBJ if they have a roster logjam.

using marchenko as an example – as a fan, i love the dude and i'm emotionally invested in him being a good player. but would i rather sign him to a $6m x 8 deal, or build a trade package around him to get a necas (extended), zegras or cirelli? all vastly different players but taking the emotional investment out of it, i think the answer has to be yes (edit: yes to the trade lol).

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

using marchenko as an example – as a fan, i love the dude and i'm emotionally invested in him being a good player. but would i rather sign him to a $6m x 8 deal, or build a trade package around him to get a necas (extended), zegras or cirelli? all vastly different players but taking the emotional investment out of it, i think the answer has to be yes.

I (think I) get what you mean here, but you pose a one or the other thing scenario and answer yes.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

I (think I) get what you mean here, but you pose a one or the other thing scenario and answer yes.

lol fixed it

to make my wall of text more concise: teams with cap space + unproven RFAs can extract more value out of them by trading them for a better player on a bigger cap hit, or in a surplus-for-surplus deal for a more impactful player.

doing so creates a more favorable environment to bring up premium draft picks who profile as potential stars.

 

[squashmaple]

lol fixed it

to make my wall of text more concise: teams with cap space + unproven RFAs can extract more value out of them by trading them for a better player on a bigger cap hit, or in a surplus-for-surplus deal for a more impactful player.

doing so creates a more favorable environment to bring up premium draft picks who profile as potential stars.

I'll distill it even more. Turn many gammas into fewer betas to put around your handful of alphas.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

I'll distill it even more. Turn many gammas into fewer betas to put around your handful of alphas.

You leave my gamma out of this. And my pap-pap too.

 

[majormajor]

He’s dynamic for sure. I’m pretty sure that Werenski Mayeychuk and Svozil are left handed D, as is Buium, so where would he slot?

When the Lightning had Hedman, McDonagh, and Sergachev, they covered all the LD minutes and then Sergachev topped up with minutes on the right side next to Hedman. All three played big minutes.

I think both Buium and Mateychuk are the type of guys for switching sides - quick feet and quick thinking. Buium especially loves to attack down the right side and protect the puck on his back hand.

This is the Lightning type approach with Mateychuk here listed in the "Sergachev position".

Werenski - Mateychuk / other
Buium -
Mateychuk -

Or perhaps one of Buium and Mateychuk is so natural on the right side that they play there full time.

That’s fair .. I saw a video with Dickinson and same point was made of our current make up…. Is defenseman more of a need than Center ? Looking at our D depth, you have Mateychuk, Jiricek, and Svozil all under 20 yrs old . Boquist is 23, Werenski 26..

I did see that - and I think Pronman also recently mocked Silayev or Dickinson to us because of our supposed hole at defense. I hope if we pick a D it's because they're BPA (Buium) and not because of any lineup factor. We already have a load of young players at both positions.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

I did see that - and I think Pronman also recently mocked Silayev or Dickinson to us because of our supposed hole at defense.

a lot of the mock drafts have had even flimsier justification than that – it's been that the blue jackets don't have a big lefty in their pipeline – so they should add a lesser prospect who fits an archetype they're missing over a much better player who overlaps with lesser prospects they already have.

I hope if we pick a D it's because they're BPA (Buium) and not because of any lineup factor. We already have a load of young players at both positions.

1000% agree with this. i'm not opposed to them drafting a defenseman, but it should be someone they envision as a potential star. and i think they're more likely to get a star forward out of that spot (lindstrom, helenius, iginla) than a defenseman imo.

 

[koteka]

If we go for defense, I want to trade back. I don’t think any defenseman justifies 4OA in the class. Dickinson looks like the safest pick and I am really high on Buium, but I don’t draft a left D that high unless he is a Victor Hedman or Rasmus Dahlin talent, which neither of those guys are. At 9 you can get a decent D. I am also pretty high on Carter Yakemchuk. I think Iginla is rising and won’t be there for Calgary. Trade with Calgary - maybe Dickinson or Buium falls, or grab Yakemchuk or take the Silayev gamble is he falls. Grab another solid D with the other Calgary pick like EJ Emery.

 

[CBJx614]

We're picking 4th overall, we should be picking BPA, position be damned. Unless they have two players tied for a grade...i would hope we're taking the best player on the board in our eyes.

 

[Xoggz22]

He’s dynamic for sure. I’m pretty sure that Werenski Mayeychuk and Svozil are left handed D, as is Buium, so where would he slot?

I know you know this, but if you're taking him at 4OA, you don't care where he slots because you think he's the best option and you treat them all as assets.

I think we all need to keep that in mind... the pick is just an asset. The CBJ will be moving prospects - now or in the future - so when picking this high the expectation is you pick the guy with the highest ceiling with the most likelihood of getting there. You don't worry about position unless you have two rated equally or they are so close and you have an organizational deficiency that you go with the "need".

I really don't care who they take this year. The only player that is concensus was Celebrini. Beyond him there is a mash up of who might be the next best option. I know...we've covered this a lot already. I just throw it out there as a reminder that players and picks are assets, not absolutes. I expect the player they take at #4 SHOULD be better than what we have (in general).

 

[koteka]

I don’t think this is a great draft year at the top. Last year was really strong but if we compare

Bedard > Celebrini

Carlsson, Fantilli, and Smith are all comparable to Celebrini

Carlsson, Fantilli, Smith, and Michkov are all easily better prospects than anyone in 2024 not named Celebrini

Reinbacher is better prospect than any D prospect this year

Guys like Leonard or Dvorsky might be better prospects than anyone we could draft at 4OA this year

Demidov is the clear 2nd best prospect this year - he would have gone after #7 Michkov last year

What I like about this draft is there are plenty of D that I would take above any D not named Reinbacher last year. That is why I would trade back if we can’t get Demidov or Lindstrom.

 

[majormajor]

I don’t think this is a great draft year at the top. Last year was really strong but if we compare

Bedard > Celebrini

Carlsson, Fantilli, and Smith are all comparable to Celebrini

Carlsson, Fantilli, Smith, and Michkov are all easily better prospects than anyone in 2024 not named Celebrini

Reinbacher is better prospect than any D prospect this year

Guys like Leonard or Dvorsky might be better prospects than anyone we could draft at 4OA this year

Demidov is the clear 2nd best prospect this year - he would have gone after #7 Michkov last year

What I like about this draft is there are plenty of D that I would take above any D not named Reinbacher last year. That is why I would trade back if we can’t get Demidov or Lindstrom.

I think there's about four D in this class with similar ratings to Reinbacher and Simashev. I have Buium ahead of them.

I would have Demidov 4th in last year's draft, ahead of Smith and Michkov. I know that's debatable. But a lot of NHL clubs would be more comfortable with Demidov than Michkov, he's bigger and stronger, doesn't have a long contract, doesn't have weird stuff and feuds going on around him.

Certainly the top was better last year, but if you're picking 4th last year that's about the same as picking 4th this year. I thought last year flattened out from 4 onward, so I was very grateful we picked 3rd.

 

[koteka]

I would have Demidov 4th in last year's draft, ahead of Smith and Michkov. I know that's debatable.

That is really debatable.

What would your top 10 be across both draft classes? With what people thought about 2023 draftees at the time, not now.

 

[majormajor]

That is really debatable.

What would your top 10 be across both draft classes? With what people thought about 2023 draftees at the time, not now.

Maybe I'll have an answer for that by the draft. A lot of close calls I don't want to get into now.

 

[Xoggz22]

Reinbacher is better prospect than any D prospect this year

I have heard a few "experts" note that Reinbacher would be well behind at least 4 of the D in this draft class, based on pre-draft expectations. This draft is considered very strong for D. I believe Steven Ellis is one of those that has specifically mentioned Reinbacher. Silayev, Dickinson, Buium and Levshunov are all considered better prospects this year and there are arguments for Parekh and Yakemchuk as well. I'm no expert so I rely on what I hear when comparing, but I've heard too much about the depth of the D in this class at the top end of the draft to disagree with them. The consensus was that Bedard, Fantili and Carlsson (maybe Smith) would be on par with Celebrini and Demidov may be in that group based on skill but beyond that this top end is higher, just not apparently as deep beyong the top of the draft. most of which is driven by the defensemen.

 

[majormajor]

I have heard a few "experts" note that Reinbacher would be well behind at least 4 of the D in this draft class, based on pre-draft expectations.

See now I think that is an exaggeration in the other direction.

 

[Aaaarrgghh]

I had a dream last night that Chicago and Anaheim picked Levshunov and Silayev while Columbus got Demidov and I was quite content. I think I need to take a break from thinking about the draft. The Blue Jackets have no business intruding on my dreams.

 

[Xoggz22]

See now I think that is an exaggeration in the other direction.

Hey, I didn't say it but there are plenty out there saying this is a defense heavy draft up top and just echoing that there is belief that at least 4, if not 6 are considered better prospects than Reinbacher. My only point was I have not heard anyone say Reinbacher would be the top D in this class. No one will know for 3-5 years either way.

 

[Napoli]

If Demidov somehow falls I hope they take him. I'm not sold on Dickinson or Silayev, just seem like really low ceiling players for 4th overall. Obviously could be wrong on that, specifically Dickinson.

Lindstrom is and probably should be falling for good reason. I don't think you can waste a top 10 pick on a guy with injury concerns, let alone a top 5 pick.

Buium is someone I wouldn't be upset with. A high end PMD that is probably pretty safe. I definitely don't think he's a need though.

Helenius is probably the most interesting player. Someone you could see in 5 years like, how did so many teams pass on him? I haven't watched a bunch of him, how high is his offensive potential?

Catton is still my pick at 4 if Demidov is off the board. The team needs size but Catton is a play driving center who makes everyone around him excel. This team definitely needs more play driving centers. The knock is his size but he's not going to get smaller and only 18 years old. He basically took a team that had no business making the playoffs and brought them there with two other over-agers.

Someone find the WHL list of players with over 100 points in their draft year, it's very limited and seriously impressive. If you're on a list with like 4 other guys and one of them is Bedard, among other good players, that's not something many players can say.

 

[GoJackets1]

Helenius is quickly climbing up my list. Seems like he could be a really high end, defensively responsible 2C to complement Fantilli at 1C.

Also, his scoring rate in Liiga this year seems really quite good for an 18 year old. I’d love to see some comparables there but haven’t looked myself yet.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Helenius is quickly climbing up my list. Seems like he could be a really high end, defensively responsible 2C to complement Fantilli at 1C.

Also, his scoring rate in Liiga this year seems really quite good for an 18 year old. I’d love to see some comparables there but haven’t looked myself yet.

0.71 p/gp in liiga this year for helenius – if i'm looking at the right chart that would put him fifth all-time behind:

1. granlund (0.93)
2. barkov (0.91)
3. kakko (0.84)
4. laine (0.72)

so basically his draft-eligible production is equal to patrik laine, but he's doing that while being one of the best defensive forwards in the entire league at 17. and he has a late birthday on top of that.

 

[GoJackets1]

0.71 p/gp in liiga this year for helenius – if i'm looking at the right chart that would put him fifth all-time behind:

1. granlund (0.93)
2. barkov (0.91)
3. kakko (0.84)
4. laine (0.72)

so basically his draft-eligible production is equal to patrik laine, but he's doing that while being one of the best defensive forwards in the entire league at 17. and he has a late birthday on top of that.

Yeah, I can see why some folks have him rated around the top 5. Whoever grabs him is going to get a steal of a very well rounded forward.

 

[Doggy]

I think it's easier to list the guys I am really not interested in that are considered maybe top ten picks. No to Eiserman and considering what we went through with Murray I am concerned about Lindstrom.

I wonder earlier whether Helenius would be creeping up the rankings too, when major said Tij is close to top 5 as a 'safe' pick in the draft. Craig clearly has a thing for safe picks this year.

Silyaev at 16 too.. Rare occurance but I kinda like what Craig is cooking. The man doesnt care a bit about height

Edit. oh woow, Julius Miettinen, who didnt even make the Finnish u18 team, at #19 above Hemming, Kiviharju, Väisänen. Gotta respect the hottakes

Don't know Miettinen but hardly a hot-take that Kiviharju is below #19. I feel like most so-called experts have him in the second round now.

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

Don't know Miettinen but hardly a hot-take that Kiviharju is below #19. I feel like most so-called experts have him in the second round now.

Yeah kiviharju isnt a hot take. Was just talking about miettinen