Speculation: 2024 Goalie Carousel

JKG33

Leafs & Kings
Oct 31, 2009
7,586
11,493
Winnipeg
Here's what we're looking at a week before the draft:

ANA: Gibson-Dostal
BOS: Swayman-Ullmark-Bussi
BUF: UPL-Levi
CGY: Wolf-Vladar
CAR: Andersen-Kotchetkov
CHI: Mrazek-Soderblom
COL: Georgiev-Annunen
CBJ: Merzlikins-Tarasov
DAL: Oettinger-??
DET: Lyon-Husso
EDM: Skinner-Campbell
FLA: Bobrovsky-Knight
LA: Kuemper-Rittich
MIN: Fleury-Gustafsson
MTL: Montembault-Primeau
NSH: Saros-??-Askarov
NJ: Markstrom-Allen
NYI: Sorokin-Varlamov
NYR: Shesterkin-Quick
OTT: Korpisalo-Forsberg
PHI: Fedotov-Ersson
PIT: Jarry-Nedelkojvic
STL: Binnington-Hofer
SJ: Blackwood-Vanecek
SEA: Daccord-Grubauer
TB: Vasilievsky-Johansson
TOR: Woll-??
UTA: Ingram-Vejmelka
VAN: Demko-Silvos
VGK: Hill-Thompson
WSH: Lindgren-Shepherd
WPG: Hellebuyck-??

Notable UFAs
Comrie
Wedgewood
Reimer
Stolarz
Talbot
Lankinen
Dreidger
Samsonov
Jones
Desmith
Brossoit

Who fills the "??" spots? Who gets traded? Who gets sent to the minors or remains unsigned?
 
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Empoleon8771

Registered User
Aug 25, 2015
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-Toronto signs Brossoit to play with Woll
-Ullmark goes to Detroit without a goalie going back (Husso gets waived and stashed in the AHL for next year)
-Jarry and Forsberg are swapped
-Samsonov goes to San Jose as a lottery ticket reclamation project
-Campbell is bought out and Edmonton signs Stolarz to platoon with Skinner
-Talbot goes to Colorado to battle it out with Georgiyev for the starter's role
 
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Porter Stoutheart

Seen Stamkos?
Jun 14, 2017
16,060
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I think the Preds have been satisfied with Lankinen... if he would take the same contract again (1yr/$2M), he'd probably be welcome back, since it's not likely that Askarov is ready yet. However, he may wish to try for extra term somewhere else if that is available. In which case the Preds could either advance the timeline on Askarov or pick up somebody else who'd take the 1-year term instead. :dunno:
 
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JKG33

Leafs & Kings
Oct 31, 2009
7,586
11,493
Winnipeg
My guesses:

Dallas, Winnipeg, Edmonton (Campbell buyout) and Nashville (Askarov starting in the AHL again) each get one of the dime a dozen backup types, Desmith/Wedgewood/Reimer/Dreidger/Lankinen/Pickard.

Tampa signs Talbot or Samsonov to take a few more games off Vasi than what JJ was capable of

Carolina acquires Ullmark in a deal around Necas.

Columbus, Ottawa, Detroit all want to upgrade their goaltending and each have a salary dump candidate. Anaheim (if they move Gibson), San Jose, and Chicago could all take on a salary dump goalie either as a backup or in the minors.

Detroit acquires Gibson, dumping Husso in Anaheim as part of the trade.

Columbus acquires Andersen. They then pay Chicago/San Jose to take Merzlikins.

Ottawa signs Brossoit and hopes Korpisalo doesn't suck again. I could also see them trying for Andersen.

Toronto signs Stolarz to split the net with Woll.

LA signs a bought-out Campbell to compete with Rittich for the backup job.
 
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JKG33

Leafs & Kings
Oct 31, 2009
7,586
11,493
Winnipeg
Vaněček is going to be in tandem with Blackwood for the Sharks.

New head coach Warsofky has familiarity with him from their ECHL days.
Man I completely forgot about him because of the injury. I feel like that'll be Blackwood's net for sure then. I could also see one of the goalie desperate teams trying to get Blackwood

Stolarz would be a solid back up for Oettinger.
I think he goes for one of the more potentially open starter/tandem jobs. He'd be the top of the list for any backup vacancy but he's easily the best UFA available
 

Voight

#winning
Feb 8, 2012
42,074
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Mulberry Street
-Toronto signs Brossoit to play with Woll
-Ullmark goes to Detroit without a goalie going back (Husso gets waived and stashed in the AHL for next year)
-Jarry and Forsberg are swapped
-Samsonov goes to San Jose as a lottery ticket reclamation project
-Campbell is bought out and Edmonton signs Stolarz to platoon with Skinner
-Talbot goes to Colorado to battle it out with Georgiyev for the starter's role

That makes zero sense for Ottawa. They're going to commit almost 10 million in cap space for two average goalies? Doubt it.
 

Empoleon8771

Registered User
Aug 25, 2015
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Redmond, WA
That makes zero sense for Ottawa. They're going to commit almost 10 million in cap space for two average goalies? Doubt it.

Calling Korpisalo an "average goalie" is extremely generous. He's a terrible goalie who has been terrible in most of his seasons in the NHL.

From everything that has been reported, Ottawa is desperate to improve their goaltending this off-season. The two options that do that are basically just Ullmark and Jarry, both of which make $5 million and would require them to spend significant money in net.

It's either they spend $10 million in net or they buy out Korpisalo, those are really their 2 choices. Well, there is a third choice: they simply do not improve their goalies.
 
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Voight

#winning
Feb 8, 2012
42,074
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Calling Korpisalo an "average goalie" is extremely generous.

From everything that has been reported, Ottawa is desperate to improve their goaltending this off-season. The two options that do that are basically just Ullmark and Jarry, both of which make $5 million and would require them to spend significant money in net.

It's either they spend $10 million in net or they buy out Korpisalo, those are really their 2 choices. Well, there is a third choice: they simply do not improve their goalies.

Ullmark would cost more but if they really intend on making a difference, I think they go for him.

I just don't see them trading Forsberg for Jarry who still has 4 years left on his contract. Also has a LNTC so who knows if he'd even waive for them.

& they could just as easily buyout Korpisalo. Its really not too bad of a hit cap wise, especially with the rising cap.

 

Empoleon8771

Registered User
Aug 25, 2015
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Ullmark would cost more but if they really intend on making a difference, I think they go for him.

I just dont see them riding Forsberg for Jarry who still has 4 years left on his contract. Also ha sa LNTC so who knows if he'd even waive for them.

& they could just as easily buyout Korpisalo. Its really not too bad of a hit cap wise, especially with the rising cap.


You can say the same thing about Ullmark, I actually believe Ullmark's NTC is more restrictive than Jarry's.

But yes, they basically have to buy out Korpisalo this off-season if they want to improve their goaltending. I don't think them spending $10 million in net is something they want to do, but any sort of upgrade in net for them will require that without buying out Korpisalo. Ullmark and Jarry are really the only clear upgrades available right now, and both of them will cause Ottawa to be paying $10 million in net.
 

Voight

#winning
Feb 8, 2012
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You can say the same thing about Ullmark, I actually believe Ullmark's NTC is more restrictive than Jarry's.

But yes, they basically have to buy out Korpisalo this off-season if they want to improve their goaltending. I don't think them spending $10 million in net is something they want to do, but any sort of upgrade in net for them will require that without buying out Korpisalo. Ullmark and Jarry are really the only clear upgrades available right now, and both of them will cause Ottawa to be paying $10 million in net.

& if they're serious about improving their goaltending, I dont think Jarry is the answer. Korpisalo sucks so it would be an upgrade, but not much of one.
 

Empoleon8771

Registered User
Aug 25, 2015
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Redmond, WA
& if they're serious about improving their goaltending, I dont think Jarry is the answer. Korpisalo sucks so it would be an upgrade, but not much of one.

Jarry has a career goals saved above average of 23.5. Korpisalo has a career goals saved above average of -62.5.

Jarry is a mid-tier starting goalie, Korpisalo is liquid garbage. It's a massive improvement to go from Korpisalo to Jarry. It's just an even bigger one going from Korpisalo to Ullmark.
 
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Pinkfloyd

Registered User
Oct 29, 2006
71,532
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Folsom
-Toronto signs Brossoit to play with Woll
-Ullmark goes to Detroit without a goalie going back (Husso gets waived and stashed in the AHL for next year)
-Jarry and Forsberg are swapped
-Samsonov goes to San Jose as a lottery ticket reclamation project
-Campbell is bought out and Edmonton signs Stolarz to platoon with Skinner
-Talbot goes to Colorado to battle it out with Georgiyev for the starter's role
I don't think San Jose is going to sign Samsonov when they have Blackwood and Vanecek as their tandem. They will likely seek to sign a cheap veteran 3rd goalie to call up when one of them inevitably gets injured but Samsonov isn't going to sign on for that. Getting someone like Martin Jones or Matt Murray if he's healthy makes more sense for that sort of role.
 

Empoleon8771

Registered User
Aug 25, 2015
85,605
86,156
Redmond, WA
I don't think San Jose is going to sign Samsonov when they have Blackwood and Vanecek as their tandem. They will likely seek to sign a cheap veteran 3rd goalie to call up when one of them inevitably gets injured but Samsonov isn't going to sign on for that. Getting someone like Martin Jones or Matt Murray if he's healthy makes more sense for that sort of role.

Yeah I forgot San Jose had Vanacek, he serves that same "lottery ticket reclamation project" role.
 

Voight

#winning
Feb 8, 2012
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Mulberry Street
Jarry has a career goals saved above average of 23.5. Korpisalo has a career goals saved above average of -62.5.

Jarry is a mid-tier starting goalie, Korpisalo is liquid garbage. It's a massive improvement to go from Korpisalo to Jarry. It's just an even bigger one going from Korpisalo to Ullmark.

Jarry last year - 2.91GAA .903 SV%

Korpisalo - 3.27GAA .890 SV%

Depends on how you define massive improvement.
 

Empoleon8771

Registered User
Aug 25, 2015
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Redmond, WA
Jarry last year - 2.91GAA .903 SV%

Korpisalo - 3.27GAA .890 SV%

Depends on how you define massive improvement.

Going from "horrendous" to "average" is a massive improvement.

Which is both what they were last year (-0.7 GSAA and +2.5 GSAx for Jarry, -20.8 GSAA and -16.1 GSAx) and over most of their careers (+30.7 GSAA and +10.9 GSAx for Jarry in last 4 years, -42.4 GSAA and -13.1 GSAx for Korpisalo in last 4 years). And frankly the only thing saving Korpisalo's numbers from being even worse was his terrific 2022-2023 season, where he had a +18 GSAx.

Or another way to put it: that 0.013 difference in save% between Jarry and Korpisalo is greater than the difference between Shesterkin and Jarry last year. The only starters with a save% greater than that 0.013 difference is Demko and Hellebuyck.
 

bernmeister

Registered User
Jun 11, 2010
28,621
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Da Big Apple
Rs have high end [but not elite] prospect in Garand, not worth dealing as he is unproven at NHL level

IF IF IF signif top $$$$ overpay, can deal Shesty, have Quick start to break this kid in
 

Djp

Registered User
Jul 28, 2012
24,663
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Alexandria, VA
I think...

Buffalo signs a backup for a year or acquired one as part of a bigger trade.

Could be Comrie

Levi generally is in rochester for the season to pl as y 50+ gsmes.

25/26 Levi is on sabres
 

LeafalCrusader

Registered User
Oct 3, 2013
10,262
12,291
Winnipeg
Surprised Lankinen didn't get a spot somewhere yet. He played well for Nashville. Not sure who's still in the market for a backup?
 

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