Prospect Info: 2024 Blues Prospect Poll #10

[STL fan in MN]

Zach Dean with a landslide win at #9. Who will round out the top-10?

1. Dalibor Dvorsky (89.8%)
2. Jimmy Snuggerud (48.8%)
3. Theo Lindstein (73.1%)
4. Adam Jiricek (41.2%)
5. Zack Bolduc (65.2%)
6. Otto Stenberg (94.4%)
7. Juraj Pekarcik (35.5%)
8. Matt Kessel (58.8%)
9. Zach Dean (77.9%)
10. ?

Click to read more...

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

Looking at that Top 9 is so exciting compared to where we were three seasons ago. Army and Tony Feltrin have done a fantastic life breathing life back into our system quickly.

Ten is a coin-flip between Zherenko and Lukas Fischer for me. I went Fischer. Zherenko will be eleven.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

P Fischer and then Stancl for me.

 

[Beauterham]

This was a hard one... I have a hard time with ranking Goalies so went with a skater. I like Lukas Fischers potential upside, so went with him.

 

[SirPaste]

Went Lukas Fischer here, its really a crap shoot at this point anyway and I don't really have any reasoning for thinking he is over other guys other than his bloodlines and being a recent 2nd rounder who I like what I see from. Thought about Zherenko but goalies prospects are weird and he had a bit of a down year last season even though he played behind a crap team.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Going to go Buchinger again

 

[Celtic Note]

I will probably skew with some bias towards prior draftees since I haven’t had time to delve into the new ones. I would expect my prospect list will look vastly different in 6 months

 

[stl76]

This is where it starts to get really interesting…

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

I think the blues would put Zherenko higher on this list. I’m not the best judge of goalies, but he looks like an impressive prospect to me. I wouldn’t be surprised if Ellis isn’t right behind him either as they both will probably see NHL time.

 

[Memento]

Voted Susuyev again. Let's be honest: we're looking at pure potential at this point, and other than Lukas Fischer - maybe, and that's a huge maybe, given how young he is; he could be anything from a dominant top four defenseman to nothing at all - I don't see anyone better than a potential top-six offensive wing.

Then it would be Buchinger for me. Zherenko is not on my list. I cannot, in good conscience, vote for a damn goalie. It would be like voting a kicker or punter in football or a middle reliever in baseball, except maybe worse because goalies are so volatile, year to year, even though they're important to a team.

 

[Majorityof1]

I think the blues would put Zherenko higher on this list. I’m not the best judge of goalies, but he looks like an impressive prospect to me. I wouldn’t be surprised if Ellis isn’t right behind him either as they both will probably see NHL time.

Goalies should always be higher than we rank them. There are enough people who outright refuse to vote for goalies, that they rarely get ranked appropriately. Like if Hofer were still eligible, people would rank a skater we drafted 25 years ago in the 7th round who never played a professional game over Hofer.

 

[Ranksu]

Sound like we are already 'crapshoot' who cares areas. So why not Kaskimäki


Its Kaskimäki not Kaskimaki.

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

Voted Susuyev again. Let's be honest: we're looking at pure potential at this point, and other than Lukas Fischer - maybe, and that's a huge maybe, given how young he is; he could be anything from a dominant top four defenseman to nothing at all - I don't see anyone better than a potential top-six offensive wing.

Then it would be Buchinger for me. Zherenko is not on my list. I cannot, in good conscience, vote for a damn goalie. It would be like voting a kicker or punter in football or a middle reliever in baseball, except maybe worse because goalies are so volatile, year to year, even though they're important to a team.

A kicker or a punter? How about a starting pitcher? The entire game can ebb and flow by how good or bad your goalie plays. I have to admit. I don’t follow them at draft time. Expertise all in itself. Goalies are the anchor.

 

[Quaz]

I went with Stancl. Steen seemed to be pretty high on him and he had a good WJC. He still needs to improve his skating, and I’m looking forward to seeing him in the CHL this season on the smaller rink. Maybe he will grow his skill set playing in Jr’s this year. He should be a lock for the WJC again.

 

[Memento]

A kicker or a punter? How about a starting pitcher? The entire game can ebb and flow by how good or bad your goalie plays. I have to admit. I don’t follow them at draft time. Expertise all in itself. Goalies are the anchor.

Haven't you seen a bad kicker or punter destroy a game or a good one win a game before? Just this Super Bowl, Jake Moody blew an extra point that would've given the 49ers their victory. Against the Jets in a 9-6 victory (I believe 2015 or 2016; I know it was with Jeff Fisher?), Johnny Hekker (who is the greatest modern punter I've ever seen) pinned the Jets deep consistently from range for our defense to stop them in their own zone.

Is a goalie so much different? They are equally volatile. The elite ones, maybe not (much like a Justin Tucker or a Johnny Hekker), but they peak late, you never can rely on most of them from year to year, and you can't rely on hitting them in a draft as much as you hit on a skater.

I do not see Zherenko or Ellis as one of those goalies that deserves a top fifteen vote. Ellis himself was awful before last year. Zherenko had a down year this year, compounded by injuries. Hell, Binnington has had his down years as well; the most talented and productive goalie we've drafted in recent years is Hofer, by far, and we're still not entirely sure what we have in him. And Cranley? No.

I can never justify voting for a goalie because skaters are far more likely to hit and usually just as impactful. Hence why I've voted for Susuyev, who seems to be the best of an increasingly tricky group of players to project. Buchinger would be after him because he's the best offensive defenseman in our system. Then it's a group of Lukas Fischer, Adam Jecho, Aleksanteri Kaskimaki, Simon Robertsson, Arseni Koromyslov, and Paul Fischer. Then - and only then - would I vote for Zherenko.

I just don't find any sense in voting for a specific player that is so up-and-down from year to year.

 

[Celtic Note]

Haven't you seen a bad kicker or punter destroy a game or a good one win a game before? Just this Super Bowl, Jake Moody blew an extra point that would've given the 49ers their victory. Against the Jets in a 9-6 victory (I believe 2015 or 2016; I know it was with Jeff Fisher?), Johnny Hekker (who is the greatest modern punter I've ever seen) pinned the Jets deep consistently from range for our defense to stop them in their own zone.

Is a goalie so much different? They are equally volatile. The elite ones, maybe not (much like a Justin Tucker or a Johnny Hekker), but they peak late, you never can rely on most of them from year to year, and you can't rely on hitting them in a draft as much as you hit on a skater.

I do not see Zherenko or Ellis as one of those goalies that deserves a top fifteen vote. Ellis himself was awful before last year. Zherenko had a down year this year, compounded by injuries. Hell, Binnington has had his down years as well; the most talented and productive goalie we've drafted in recent years is Hofer, by far, and we're still not entirely sure what we have in him. And Cranley? No.

I can never justify voting for a goalie because skaters are far more likely to hit and usually just as impactful. Hence why I've voted for Susuyev, who seems to be the best of an increasingly tricky group of players to project. Buchinger would be after him because he's the best offensive defenseman in our system. Then it's a group of Lukas Fischer, Adam Jecho, Aleksanteri Kaskimaki, Simon Robertsson, Arseni Koromyslov, and Paul Fischer. Then - and only then - would I vote for Zherenko.

I just don't find any sense in voting for a specific player that is so up-and-down from year to year.

Can I pose an alternative perspective?

None of the players we are voting on now currently projects to be impact players. Most of these players are not likely to be NHL players. So not picking a goalie now because of perceived impact or likelihood seems strange to me.

The number of forward and defensive prospects this board thought that would be good NHLers hasn’t been a particularly high degree of accuracy.

If we kept tabs on the average fans success rate in projecting impact NHLers, I don’t think that number would be as high as some think.

For goalies, I personally thought Bishop, Allen, Husso, Binnington and Hofer would be NHLers after their second AHL seasons. Hofer still has to show he has staying power, but I don’t find it unlikely he will fizzle out. I was wrong about Marek Schwarz, but that was before I really had much of an understanding of the goaltending position. I would take that overall success rate over my projections for NHL defenseman for example, if I am being honest with myself.

Here is my harsh take. I think if people didn’t use goalies are hard as a cop out and instead took the time to understand them, then it wouldn’t be as hard as people make it out to be. I also think if people were honest with themselves about their success rates with predicting skaters, their presumptions about goalies wouldn’t seem so bad.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Voted Susuyev again. Let's be honest: we're looking at pure potential at this point, and other than Lukas Fischer - maybe, and that's a huge maybe, given how young he is; he could be anything from a dominant top four defenseman to nothing at all - I don't see anyone better than a potential top-six offensive wing.

Then it would be Buchinger for me. Zherenko is not on my list. I cannot, in good conscience, vote for a damn goalie. It would be like voting a kicker or punter in football or a middle reliever in baseball, except maybe worse because goalies are so volatile, year to year, even though they're important to a team.

Fischer, Fischer, Ralph & Burns. Sounds like a law or accounting firm, but all 4 have top 4 upside. I'd value each higher than the highly skilled Susyev. I agree that he's a potential top 6 winger, but if he's not then he is of basically no utility. Each of those 4 d could well be solid 3rd pairing guys even if they don't hit their full upside.

 

[Memento]

Can I pose an alternative perspective?

None of the players we are voting on now currently projects to be impact players. Most of these players are not likely to be NHL players. So not picking a goalie now because of perceived impact or likelihood seems strange to me.

The number of forward and defensive prospects this board thought that would be good NHLers hasn’t been a particularly high degree of accuracy.

If we kept tabs on the average fans success rate in projecting impact NHLers, I don’t think that number would be as high as some think.

For goalies, I personally thought Bishop, Allen, Husso, Binnington and Hofer would be NHLers after their second AHL seasons. Hofer still has to show he has staying power, but I don’t find it unlikely he will fizzle out. I was wrong about Marek Schwarz, but that was before I really had much of an understanding of the goaltending position. I would take that overall success rate over my projections for NHL defenseman for example, if I am being honest with myself.

Here is my harsh take. I think if people didn’t use goalies are hard as a cop out and instead took the time to understand them, then it wouldn’t be as hard as people make it out to be. I also think if people were honest with themselves about their success rates with predicting skaters, their presumptions about goalies wouldn’t seem so bad.

Of course I'm not an expert. I don't ever claim to be an expert because I'm not on an NHL team's scouting staff and never will be. And I agree with your harsh take that goalies are tricky for me personally. But I watch prospects myself, I keep tabs on the prospects, and I look at all of the goalies who have been so volatile at the next level or - quite frankly - have fizzled out completely (Evan Fitzpatrick, Niklas Lundstrom, Francois Tremblay, Luke Opilka, and that's just our team in the past fifteen years - and there's no guarantee that Zherenko, Ellis, or Cranley make it either.) that I do not feel that they belong on the same page as the skaters that I feel actually stand a chance at making it somewhere in the NHL. Because I judge on a mix of if I feel they'll make it, potential, and closeness to the NHL. Zherenko is close, I'll admit that, but he needs to bounce back from last year. I am loathe to trust Ellis after having multiple bad seasons in a row (let's not forget Fitzpatrick had a great season in the ECHL at one point as well before completely fizzling out). Cranley isn't even on my radar, and if he makes it, I'll be shocked.

Fischer, Fischer, Ralph & Burns. Sounds like a law or accounting firm, but all 4 have top 4 upside. I'd value each higher than the highly skilled Susyev. I agree that he's a potential top 6 winger, but if he's not then he is of basically no utility. Each of those 4 d could well be solid 3rd pairing guys even if they don't hit their full upside.

I highly, highly doubt that Ralph ever makes it. The success rate for kids his age who aren't even in the USHL is extremely low. He is the very picture of a boom-bust candidate, and I truly think he busts. Quinton Burns is another boom-bust candidate. Talented, but a penalty machine. He'll need a strong year in the OHL for me to consider him. Paul Fischer strikes me as a bottom pairing defenseman. Lukas Fischer could easily leap over Susuyev if he has a breakout year, but he's too young right now for me to take over Susuyev, who has already played against men and held his own, even if it's only a little bit.

At this point, I look for potential because none of these players are locks to make it at the next level. Susuyev strikes me as having the biggest potential of all.

 

[Celtic Note]

Of course I'm not an expert. I don't ever claim to be an expert because I'm not on an NHL team's scouting staff and never will be. And I agree with your harsh take that goalies are tricky for me personally. But I watch prospects myself, I keep tabs on the prospects, and I look at all of the goalies who have been so volatile at the next level or - quite frankly - have fizzled out completely (Evan Fitzpatrick, Niklas Lundstrom, Francois Tremblay, Luke Opilka, and that's just our team in the past fifteen years - and there's no guarantee that Zherenko, Ellis, or Cranley make it either.) that I do not feel that they belong on the same page as the skaters that I feel actually stand a chance at making it somewhere in the NHL. Because I judge on a mix of if I feel they'll make it, potential, and closeness to the NHL. Zherenko is close, I'll admit that, but he needs to bounce back from last year. I am loathe to trust Ellis after having multiple bad seasons in a row (let's not forget Fitzpatrick had a great season in the ECHL at one point as well before completely fizzling out). Cranley isn't even on my radar, and if he makes it, I'll be shocked.



I highly, highly doubt that Ralph ever makes it. The success rate for kids his age who aren't even in the USHL is extremely low. He is the very picture of a boom-bust candidate, and I truly think he busts. Quinton Burns is another boom-bust candidate. Talented, but a penalty machine. He'll need a strong year in the OHL for me to consider him. Paul Fischer strikes me as a bottom pairing defenseman. Lukas Fischer could easily leap over Susuyev if he has a breakout year, but he's too young right now for me to take over Susuyev, who has already played against men and held his own, even if it's only a little bit.

At this point, I look for potential because none of these players are locks to make it at the next level. Susuyev strikes me as having the biggest potential of all.

Of course I'm not an expert. I don't ever claim to be an expert because I'm not on an NHL team's scouting staff and never will be. And I agree with your harsh take that goalies are tricky for me personally. But I watch prospects myself, I keep tabs on the prospects, and I look at all of the goalies who have been so volatile at the next level or - quite frankly - have fizzled out completely (Evan Fitzpatrick, Niklas Lundstrom, Francois Tremblay, Luke Opilka, and that's just our team in the past fifteen years - and there's no guarantee that Zherenko, Ellis, or Cranley make it either.) that I do not feel that they belong on the same page as the skaters that I feel actually stand a chance at making it somewhere in the NHL. Because I judge on a mix of if I feel they'll make it, potential, and closeness to the NHL. Zherenko is close, I'll admit that, but he needs to bounce back from last year. I am loathe to trust Ellis after having multiple bad seasons in a row (let's not forget Fitzpatrick had a great season in the ECHL at one point as well before completely fizzling out). Cranley isn't even on my radar, and if he makes it, I'll be shocked.



I highly, highly doubt that Ralph ever makes it. The success rate for kids his age who aren't even in the USHL is extremely low. He is the very picture of a boom-bust candidate, and I truly think he busts. Quinton Burns is another boom-bust candidate. Talented, but a penalty machine. He'll need a strong year in the OHL for me to consider him. Paul Fischer strikes me as a bottom pairing defenseman. Lukas Fischer could easily leap over Susuyev if he has a breakout year, but he's too young right now for me to take over Susuyev, who has already played against men and held his own, even if it's only a little bit.

At this point, I look for potential because none of these players are locks to make it at the next level. Susuyev strikes me as having the biggest potential of all.

But there is no guarantee that the forwards and defensemen left will make it either.

If we do the same exercise you did with the goalies, take all the forwards that made it vs the forwards that did not, what is the percentage of success? 6:1 fail rate? Of the goalies we mentioned so far we are at 2:1.

I would also contend that the goalies mentioned that failed aside from Schwarz, I don’t think any of them were largely considered very high end prospects.

 

[Memento]

But there is no guarantee that the forwards and defensemen left will make it either.

If we do the same exercise you did with the goalies, take all the forwards that made it vs the forwards that did not, what is the percentage of success? 6:1 fail rate? Of the goalies we mentioned so far we are at 2:1.

I would also contend that the goalies mentioned that failed aside from Schwarz, I don’t think any of them were largely considered very high end prospects.

Fitzpatrick was a second-round pick. Ellis - whom I mentioned - was a third-round pick. Zherenko was a seventh-round pick, by comparison.

Prospects are crapshoots. Goalies are especially crapshoots - and there's a lot more skaters than goalies in the NHL (5:1 ratio), so the success rate is automatically skewed.

 

[Celtic Note]

Fitzpatrick was a second-round pick. Ellis - whom I mentioned - was a third-round pick. Zherenko was a seventh-round pick, by comparison.

Prospects are crapshoots. Goalies are especially crapshoots - and there's a lot more skaters than goalies in the NHL (5:1 ratio), so the success rate is automatically skewed.

The ratio skews things but doesn’t it look worse for forwards? If there are more forward spots open, then they should hit at higher rates, not lower, should they not?

 

[Majorityof1]

Fitzpatrick was a second-round pick. Ellis - whom I mentioned - was a third-round pick. Zherenko was a seventh-round pick, by comparison.

Prospects are crapshoots. Goalies are especially crapshoots - and there's a lot more skaters than goalies in the NHL (5:1 ratio), so the success rate is automatically skewed.

There are a lot more skaters than goalies in the NHL, but also a lot more skaters are drafted. The last draft the were 224 picks (32x7) and 24 goalies taken. So it is roughly 1 goalie for every 8.33 skaters. The NHL has 22 man rosters and 2 of those are goalies. So it is roughly 1 goalie for every 10 skaters. So the "success" ratio is less, but not by a ton based on the past draft.

I'd also argue that more skaters flame out without earning an NHL contract than goalies. Unless goalies just don't come over, they generally will make it to the AHL, or at least the ECHL level. Zherenko may never be a consistent NHLer (I think he will), but he has an NHL contract, plays in the AHL (arguably the 2nd or 3rd best league in the world). The forward taken right before him has never signed an NHL, AHL, ECHL, KHL, SEL, or Liiga contract. He is in the NL in Switzerland which is a 6th best league at best. How valuable was he?

 

[Memento]

The ratio skews things but doesn’t it look worse for forwards? If there are more forward spots open, then they should hit at higher rates, not lower, should they not?

There's only sixty-four goalie slots in the NHL, barring injury, and a ton of them are already filled, barring the occasional injury. Conversely, there's a lot more forward and defense spots. I don't claim to be good at math (I failed high school calculus and middle school geometry, if anyone's curious. No? Then let's move on.), but that automatically skews the ratio. Of course, you'll see more busts drafted from forwards and defense - you will rarely see a goalie go above the second round, so that's thirty-two slots in the first round where a bust is possible that isn't usually a goaltender.

Add in the fact that goalies are only drafted occasionally by some teams (the vast majority of the goalies in all of the junior leagues around the world will never make it to the NHL) compared to skaters (most teams will only take two goalies at the absolute maximum in a draft, while skaters comprise the vast majority), and that skews the ratio further toward skaters not hitting rather than seeing that goalies are just not valued commodities.

To sum it up, because teams draft mostly forward and defense throughout the draft rather than goaltender, the ratio is skewed. So, let's look at goalies drafted in the first two rounds, starting from 2019 (five years from this year where there's time to establish one's self in the NHL and going back ten years:

Spencer Knight (2019, Florida, first)
Pyotr Kochetkov (2019, Carolina, second)
Mads Søgaard (2019, Ottawa, second)
Hunter Jones (2019, Minnesota, second)
Olof Lindbohm (2018, New York Rangers, second)
Olivier Rodrigue (2018, Edmonton, second)
Jake Oettinger (2017, Dallas, first)
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (2017, Buffalo, second)
Carter Hart (2016, Philadelphia, second)
Tyler Parsons (2016, Calgary, second)
Filip Gustavsson (2016, Pittsburgh, second)
Evan Fitzpatrick (2016, St. Louis, second)
Ilya Samsonov (2015, Washington, first)
Mackenzie Blackwood (2015, New Jersey, second)
Mason McDonald (2014, Calgary, second)
Thatcher Demko (2014, Vancouver, second)
Alex Nedeljkovic (2014, Carolina, second)
Vitek Vanecek (2014, Washington, second)
Brandon Halverson (2014, New York Rangers, second)
Zachary Fucale (2013, Montreal, second)
Tristan Jarry (2013, Pittsburgh, second)
Philippe Desrosiers (2013, Dallas, second)
Eric Comrie (2013, Winnepeg, second)
Andrei Vasilevskiy (2012, Tampa Bay, first)
Malcolm Subban (2012, Boston, first)
Oskar Dansk (2012, Columbus, second)
Anthony Stolarz (2012, Philadelphia, second)
Magnus Hellberg (2011, Nashville, second)
John Gibson (2011, Anaheim, second)
Christopher Gibson (2011, Los Angeles, second)
Jack Campbell (2010, Dallas, first)
Mark Visentin (2010, Arizona, first)
Calvin Pickard (2010, Colorado, second)
Kent Simpson (2010, Chicago, second)
Mikko Koskinen (2009, New York Islanders, second)
Robin Lehner (2009, Ottawa, second)

All right. Long list, but here we go. A lot of those names only played for a cup of coffee in the NHL. Subtract Parsons, Fucale, Fitzpatrick, Rodrigue, Lindbohm, Halverson, C. Gibson, Visentin, Simpson, Koskinen, Desroisers, Comrie, Dansk, Jones, McDonald, Subban, Hellberg, Stolarz, Kochetkov, and Søgaard, who either have/had barely played or didn't make it at all. Then subtract goalies like Vanecek, Nedeljkovic, Blackwood, Jarry, J. Gibson, Campbell, Pickard, Knight, and Hart that were either flashes in the pan or played a lot behind bad teams or were/are career backups (backup goalies, mind you, being what Zherenko could be

What are you left with? Not a lot compared to what was there before (although first round goalies seem to hit at a rate higher than first round skaters, it's because there's less compared to skaters): Oettinger, Vasilevskiy, Lehner, Demko, Luuokkonen, Gustavsson, Samsonov. Seven starters out of thirty-six drafted goalies in the first two rounds from 2009 to 2019. The fact that goalies hit at a higher rate is not because it is a better option to take goaltenders with the top two round picks, but because the elite ones tend to go at an earlier rate. If I added in the list of goalies drafted after the first two rounds, much like if you added in the skaters (and please don't do the skaters or make me do the skaters, it was hard enough for me to comb through the list of goalies), the ratio would be even more skewed.

Goalies are absolutely a crapshoot when it comes to getting an elite one; you have to wait a long time to see a payoff, and it's not often when they are young. Sometimes, you go through an entire draft not getting a single good one, even when a lot are picked. Even with skaters, you will usually find an impact player in a draft, even if it's at the very top, even if it's only the first overall pick or a top five pick. Not so much with goalies.

There are a lot more skaters than goalies in the NHL, but also a lot more skaters are drafted. The last draft the were 224 picks (32x7) and 24 goalies taken. So it is roughly 1 goalie for every 8.33 skaters. The NHL has 22 man rosters and 2 of those are goalies. So it is roughly 1 goalie for every 10 skaters. So the "success" ratio is less, but not by a ton based on the past draft.

I'd also argue that more skaters flame out without earning an NHL contract than goalies. Unless goalies just don't come over, they generally will make it to the AHL, or at least the ECHL level. Zherenko may never be a consistent NHLer (I think he will), but he has an NHL contract, plays in the AHL (arguably the 2nd or 3rd best league in the world). The forward taken right before him has never signed an NHL, AHL, ECHL, KHL, SEL, or Liiga contract. He is in the NL in Switzerland which is a 6th best league at best. How valuable was he?

Again, goalies are such a crapshoot and take so long to develop that I don't think that they should be anywhere near a top ten list. Look at Spencer Knight. Drafted in the top fifteen in 2019, and Bobrovsky outplayed him by far. The fact that skaters bust at a high rate is because, like you said, more of them are drafted. That's not to put goalies on a high pedestal. It's simply to say that there's more good skater prospects than good goalie prospects.

Fate, I'm f***ing tired and sleepy from doing all of this research.

 

[Majorityof1]

There's only sixty-four goalie slots in the NHL, barring injury, and a ton of them are already filled, barring the occasional injury. Conversely, there's a lot more forward and defense spots. I don't claim to be good at math (I failed high school calculus and middle school geometry, if anyone's curious. No? Then let's move on.), but that automatically skews the ratio. Of course, you'll see more busts drafted from forwards and defense - you will rarely see a goalie go above the second round, so that's thirty-two slots in the first round where a bust is possible that isn't usually a goaltender.

Add in the fact that goalies are only drafted occasionally by some teams (the vast majority of the goalies in all of the junior leagues around the world will never make it to the NHL) compared to skaters (most teams will only take two goalies at the absolute maximum in a draft, while skaters comprise the vast majority), and that skews the ratio further toward skaters not hitting rather than seeing that goalies are just not valued commodities.

To sum it up, because teams draft mostly forward and defense throughout the draft rather than goaltender, the ratio is skewed. So, let's look at goalies drafted in the first two rounds, starting from 2019 (five years from this year where there's time to establish one's self in the NHL and going back ten years:

Spencer Knight (2019, Florida, first)
Pyotr Kochetkov (2019, Carolina, second)
Mads Søgaard (2019, Ottawa, second)
Hunter Jones (2019, Minnesota, second)
Olof Lindbohm (2018, New York Rangers, second)
Olivier Rodrigue (2018, Edmonton, second)
Jake Oettinger (2017, Dallas, first)
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (2017, Buffalo, second)
Carter Hart (2016, Philadelphia, second)
Tyler Parsons (2016, Calgary, second)
Filip Gustavsson (2016, Pittsburgh, second)
Evan Fitzpatrick (2016, St. Louis, second)
Ilya Samsonov (2015, Washington, first)
Mackenzie Blackwood (2015, New Jersey, second)
Mason McDonald (2014, Calgary, second)
Thatcher Demko (2014, Vancouver, second)
Alex Nedeljkovic (2014, Carolina, second)
Vitek Vanecek (2014, Washington, second)
Brandon Halverson (2014, New York Rangers, second)
Zachary Fucale (2013, Montreal, second)
Tristan Jarry (2013, Pittsburgh, second)
Philippe Desrosiers (2013, Dallas, second)
Eric Comrie (2013, Winnepeg, second)
Andrei Vasilevskiy (2012, Tampa Bay, first)
Malcolm Subban (2012, Boston, first)
Oskar Dansk (2012, Columbus, second)
Anthony Stolarz (2012, Philadelphia, second)
Magnus Hellberg (2011, Nashville, second)
John Gibson (2011, Anaheim, second)
Christopher Gibson (2011, Los Angeles, second)
Jack Campbell (2010, Dallas, first)
Mark Visentin (2010, Arizona, first)
Calvin Pickard (2010, Colorado, second)
Kent Simpson (2010, Chicago, second)
Mikko Koskinen (2009, New York Islanders, second)
Robin Lehner (2009, Ottawa, second)

All right. Long list, but here we go. A lot of those names only played for a cup of coffee in the NHL. Subtract Parsons, Fucale, Fitzpatrick, Rodrigue, Lindbohm, Halverson, C. Gibson, Visentin, Simpson, Koskinen, Desroisers, Comrie, Dansk, Jones, McDonald, Subban, Hellberg, Stolarz, Kochetkov, and Søgaard, who either have/had barely played or didn't make it at all. Then subtract goalies like Vanecek, Nedeljkovic, Blackwood, Jarry, J. Gibson, Campbell, Pickard, Knight, and Hart that were either flashes in the pan or played a lot behind bad teams or were/are career backups (backup goalies, mind you, being what Zherenko could be

What are you left with? Not a lot compared to what was there before (although first round goalies seem to hit at a rate higher than first round skaters, it's because there's less compared to skaters): Oettinger, Vasilevskiy, Lehner, Demko, Luuokkonen, Gustavsson, Samsonov. Seven starters out of thirty-six drafted goalies in the first two rounds from 2009 to 2019. The fact that goalies hit at a higher rate is not because it is a better option to take goaltenders with the top two round picks, but because the elite ones tend to go at an earlier rate. If I added in the list of goalies drafted after the first two rounds, much like if you added in the skaters (and please don't do the skaters or make me do the skaters, it was hard enough for me to comb through the list of goalies), the ratio would be even more skewed.

Goalies are absolutely a crapshoot when it comes to getting an elite one; you have to wait a long time to see a payoff, and it's not often when they are young. Sometimes, you go through an entire draft not getting a single good one, even when a lot are picked. Even with skaters, you will usually find an impact player in a draft, even if it's at the very top, even if it's only the first overall pick or a top five pick. Not so much with goalies.



Again, goalies are such a crapshoot and take so long to develop that I don't think that they should be anywhere near a top ten list. Look at Spencer Knight. Drafted in the top fifteen in 2019, and Bobrovsky outplayed him by far. The fact that skaters bust at a high rate is because, like you said, more of them are drafted. That's not to put goalies on a high pedestal. It's simply to say that there's more good skater prospects than good goalie prospects.

Fate, I'm f***ing tired and sleepy from doing all of this research.

I still don't see your point. Just because a lot of goalies picks don't pan out, or there are less goalies, doesn't make them worthless. If we had a young Vasielevsky in our system, are we going to ignore him to vote for Stancl. A future Vezina winner vs a guy who at best will be a 4th liner than can play up in a pinch.

There are Roughly 1 goalie per 10 skaters, so having 1 goalie in your top 10 prospects would make sense. And a goalies effect on the game is far more than a 3rd pairing D playing 10 sheltered minutes. You aren't saying you only pick 1 goalie in 10, you are saying you don't pick goalies. We are not at the top tier of the list, we are at the dregs. Zherenko has a better shot to play meaningful NHL minutes than anyone we have left on this poll.

 

[Memento]

I still don't see your point. Just because a lot of goalies picks don't pan out, or there are less goalies, doesn't make them worthless. If we had a young Vasielevsky in our system, are we going to ignore him to vote for Stancl. A future Vezina winner vs a guy who at best will be a 4th liner than can play up in a pinch.

There are Roughly 1 goalie per 10 skaters, so having 1 goalie in your top 10 prospects would make sense. And a goalies effect on the game is far more than a 3rd pairing D playing 10 sheltered minutes. You aren't saying you only pick 1 goalie in 10, you are saying you don't pick goalies. We are not at the top tier of the list, we are at the dregs. Zherenko has a better shot to play meaningful NHL minutes than anyone we have left on this poll.

Never said Stancl. Quite frankly, Stancl's lower on my list because he's only going to be a fourth liner at best.

I vote for potential. Potential to be great and the ability to get there, which is why the last three - now make it four and counting - votes of mine have been for Susuyev, whom I think could very well be a top six winger if he ever comes over. If we had a young Vasilevskiy, I'd absolutely put him higher on this list because he'd be a first round goalie, and those tend to pan out for the most part. We don't have a young Vasilevskiy or a young Oettinger. We don't even have Hofer.

Zherenko and Ellis do not inspire enough confidence from me to pick them over Susuyev, Buchinger, Lukas Fischer, Jecho, Kaskimaki, Robertsson, Koromyslov, and Paul Fischer. After those guys? Hell yes, I'll vote for Zherenko, but he's way too risky (seventh round goaltender who struggled last year) with not enough payoff in the near future (as, at most, I think he's Hofer's backup after Binnington leaves - if Zherenko doesn't leave first). You could say the same for any of Kaskimaki, Robertsson, Koromyslov and Paul Fischer, but the former two are in the AHL as well and project well on the bottom six with the ability to play up, the lattermost is bound to be a solid defender, and Koromyslov is a wildcard boom-bust pick who will get meaningful minutes in the KHL this year for the first time.

Zherenko struggled last year in the AHL when I thought he could take a giant leap. Injuries and inconsistencies were a huge part of his season last year, which is concerning. Last year was the first good year Ellis has had in the professional leagues; he was an ECHL goalie before then. I want to see him do it another year. Cranley? No.

My point being, I don't feel we have that one can't-miss goalie, and I don't feel we're at the dregs yet.