Speculation: 2024/25 Trade Rumours, Speculation etc Thread

[Flair Hay]

According to money puck the Jets second line has 11 GF this year with one of their Fwds having 0. The other two top 9 lines have 13 GF each.

Yet the player with 5/11 goals is the problem.

Yeah I don't agree that anyone on that line is a big problem. We are a .800 pts % tram right now. We can use some of that good grace to let a young guy play his way out of a slump.

I'm not opposed to Perfetti being a trade chip for a dman. Beats sending our former top ten pick to the press box again.

 

[surixon]

In all honesty the second line has played better the last 10 games then they did the first 13. They are generating a lot more and giving up less. But they have seen a regression towards the mean in terms of their finishing. They were never going to continue to finish on 12% of their shots that they did the first 13. They also aren't going to continue to finish on the 7% of their shots they have the last 10 games either. They will likely trend back up towards 9%.

The third line will start to see a regression in their finishing as well as they were also finishing around 12%.

 

[sipowicz]

Names on pace for 51 points, Perfetti on pace for 55... Names possession numbers are pretty strong - I wouldn't mess with things too much

I still prefer the Nino-Names-Ehlers line but Im also not sure Perfetti is ready to play a shut down role against the opposition top guys

Perfetan is playing a shutdown game against the Jets, the pretend top sixer belongs on the 4th line!

 

[Flair Hay]

In all honesty the second line has played better the last 10 games then they did the first 13. They are generating a lot more and giving up less. But they have seen a regression towards the mean in terms of their finishing. They were never going to continue to finish on 12% of their shots that they did the first 13. They also aren't going to continue to finish on the 7% of their shots they have the last 10 games either. They will likely trend back up towards 9%.

The third line will start to see a regression in their finishing as well as they were also finishing around 12%.

I think it's important to emphasize they aren't hurting us much, even when they are not scoring...

5 goals against in 23 games

This year, and last year combined from moneypuck:
57 games
400 minutes
22 goals
11 goals against

Not expected goals, not advanced stats, not per minute, just how this trio is doing on the scoreboard.

We should start discussing them like they are part of the engine driving this team, not one of the pieces holding it back

 

[WolfHouse]

Perfetan is playing a shutdown game against the Jets, the pretend top sixer belongs on the 4th line!

Still disappointing you never picked up on Confetti as his nickname

 

[Whileee]

One thing to consider for the Jets is that they have a particular style and system, and they need players that can fit in (especially if they are in the bottom-6. Appleton isn't great, but he's fast and smart on the forecheck and he's not expensive. The Jets made the mistake last year of acquiring Monahan and Toffoli and they didn't play the high-pace, high pressure style that had been so effective. I think that they could plug Chibrikov or Lambert into a winger position this season and they would do fine. If they are going to go for a big upgrade, it should be for a big, fast and effective 2C (for Ehlers and Perfetti) or a difference-maker on D (instead of DeMelo, maybe). The only caveat is that it would probably be Miller that would end up in the press box and he's actually been been one of the better D for the Jets. DeMelo has struggled a lot this s season, but will likely not be benched if they acquire another D.

 

[Wpgpage]

I actually think Monahan was a great fit with Ehlers. He was awful in the playoffs as was the rest of the team but in 34 games spent almost entirely with Ehlers he put up 19 even strength points.

Toffoli yeah that didn't work out no.

 

[10Ducky10]

Appleton takes a lot of shit on these boards but he scored more points than Nino or Lowry last season.

 

[voyageur]

I think it's important to emphasize they aren't hurting us much, even when they are not scoring...

5 goals against in 23 games

This year, and last year combined from moneypuck:
57 games
400 minutes
22 goals
11 goals against

Not expected goals, not advanced stats, not per minute, just how this trio is doing on the scoreboard.

We should start discussing them like they are part of the engine driving this team, not one of the pieces holding it back

I was looking on Natural Stat Trick for some background. That line has 135 offensive zone faceoffs, 62 neutral zone, and 39 defensive zone. Lowry's line which is outscroing teams a greater pace has taken 52 offensive zone draws, 119 neutral zone draws and 108 defensive zone draws.

So they are without a doubt the drivers of the bus. The 2nd line is getting scored on less that the top line, but they have had the least amount of defensive responsibility of any line of the team. And frankly it's because you can't trust either Perfetti or Ehlers in the defensive zone. The good thing is they can use a fair amount of speed to negate any sustained attack from the primarily o-zone starts.

 

[Flair Hay]

I was looking on Natural Stat Trick for some background. That line has 135 offensive zone faceoffs, 62 neutral zone, and 39 defensive zone. Lowry's line which is outscroing teams a greater pace has taken 52 offensive zone draws, 119 neutral zone draws and 108 defensive zone draws.

So they are without a doubt the drivers of the bus. The 2nd line is getting scored on less that the top line, but they have had the least amount of defensive responsibility of any line of the team. And frankly it's because you can't trust either Perfetti or Ehlers in the defensive zone. The good thing is they can use a fair amount of speed to negate any sustained attack from the primarily o-zone starts.

No argument from me that it is Lowry line that is our best line by fsr this year, and overall both years.

Who I'm comparing them to is Scheifele line.

No reason to me Perfetti and Ehlers can't be trusted in their own end. Especially if it's implied Scheif and Connor can be.

Maybe we could balance out those ozone starts with Scheif's line a bit?

 

[voyageur]

No argument from me that it is Lowry line that is our best line by fsr this year, and overall both years.

Who I'm comparing them to is Scheifele line.

No reason to me Perfetti and Ehlers can't be trusted in their own end. Especially if it's implied Scheif and Connor can be.

Maybe we could balance out those ozone starts with Scheif's line a bit?

I think Scheif and KC are trusted by Arny. Especially KC because you hear the coach talk about his game. Scheif is more the horse he has to ride to have success. Last game won't inspire any more trust in Perfetti and Ehlers as both missed a chance to prevent a goal in a 1 goal game. Details.

Scheif's line has 130 o-zone starts so they are not far behind, but 96/61 NZ and DZ. So there is clearly only one line that is getting the majority of its starts from the o-zone where it is easist to score from. I thought this is relevant because for years people used xGoals, Corsi as a sign that Ehlers was a superior defensive player on this team. Without ever qualifying zone starts.

 

[surixon]

I think Scheif and KC are trusted by Arny. Especially KC because you hear the coach talk about his game. Scheif is more the horse he has to ride to have success. Last game won't inspire any more trust in Perfetti and Ehlers as both missed a chance to prevent a goal in a 1 goal game. Details.

Scheif's line has 130 o-zone starts so they are not far behind, but 96/61 NZ and DZ. So there is clearly only one line that is getting the majority of its starts from the o-zone where it is easist to score from. I thought this is relevant because for years people used xGoals, Corsi as a sign that Ehlers was a superior defensive player on this team. Without ever qualifying zone starts.

I mean they are the highest paid forwards so obviously he's going to trust them. That is no different then any other coach.

There is mountains of film of the KC/Scheife combo failing to prevent goals in tight games, your example of a single goal isn't really relevant when they have only given up 5 total goals on the year.

Imo they see less defensive draws largely due to Namestnikov sucking at faceoffs.

 

[Flair Hay]

I think Scheif and KC are trusted by Arny. Especially KC because you hear the coach talk about his game. Scheif is more the horse he has to ride to have success. Last game won't inspire any more trust in Perfetti and Ehlers as both missed a chance to prevent a goal in a 1 goal game. Details.

Scheif's line has 130 o-zone starts so they are not far behind, but 96/61 NZ and DZ. So there is clearly only one line that is getting the majority of its starts from the o-zone where it is easist to score from. I thought this is relevant because for years people used xGoals, Corsi as a sign that Ehlers was a superior defensive player on this team. Without ever qualifying zone starts.

That's definitely a good find, thank you for bringing that up. The zone starts definitely do matter.

Ozone-Nzone-Dzone
135-60-40
57% Ozone, 17% Dzone, 66% of goals
130-95-60
45% Ozone, 21% Dzone, 50% of goals

I don't get why Perfetti and Ehlers are trusted a lot less defensively when they give up half as much per minute as Scheif line. That's a real big discrepancy for zone starts and some sheltered minutes to make up.

You are saying Connor and Scheif are trusted defensively more than Perfetti and Ehlers. I agree. That part doesn't seem to make sense to me. A goal on them from the Kings game notwithstanding.

What this does do is increase my concern over Perfetti struggling to score given the factors you mentioned. I'll keep an eye on this a bit more now.

I mean they are the highest paid forwards so obviously he's going to trust them. That is no different then any other coach.

There is mountains of film of the KC/Scheife combo failing to prevent goals in tight games, your example of a single goal isn't really relevant when they have only given up 5 total goals on the year.

Imo they see less defensive draws largely due to Namestnikov sucking at faceoffs.

Yeah all good points

 

[surixon]

That's definitely a good find, thank you for bringing that up. The zone starts definitely do matter.

Ozone-Nzone-Dzone
135-60-40
57% Ozone, 17% Dzone, 66% of goals
130-95-60
45% Ozone, 21% Dzone, 50% of goals

I don't get why Perfetti and Ehlers are trusted a lot less defensively when they give up half as much per minute as Scheif line. That's a real big discrepancy for zone starts and some sheltered minutes to make up.

You are saying Connor and Scheif are trusted defensively more than Perfetti and Ehlers. I agree. That part doesn't seem to make sense to me. A goal on them from the Kings game notwithstanding.

What this does do is increase my concern over Perfetti struggling to score given the factors you mentioned. I'll keep an eye on this a bit more now.


Yeah all good points

Also I find zone starts misleading as most shifts start on the fly anyhow.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I mean they are the highest paid forwards so obviously he's going to trust them. That is no different then any other coach.

There is mountains of film of the KC/Scheife combo failing to prevent goals in tight games, your example of a single goal isn't really relevant when they have only given up 5 total goals on the year.

Imo they see less defensive draws largely due to Namestnikov sucking at faceoffs.

KC isn't getting that much more than Ehlers just a million which in NHL talk isn't much.
Names is much better defensively than Schief so that helps his wingers a lot.

 

[surixon]

KC isn't getting that much more than Ehlers just a million which in NHL talk isn't much.

I mean the org likes him more and imo his next contract will be quite a bit more then what they'd give up to sign fly.

 

[voyageur]

I mean they are the highest paid forwards so obviously he's going to trust them. That is no different then any other coach.

There is mountains of film of the KC/Scheife combo failing to prevent goals in tight games, your example of a single goal isn't really relevant when they have only given up 5 total goals on the year.

Imo they see less defensive draws largely due to Namestnikov sucking at faceoffs.

There's a grain of truth in that statement. Bowness talked about having more slack for stars. Because KC and Scheif can break open a game on the PP. I also think Scheif is severely underrated for getting offensive zone possession or zone entries. But I don't have stats to support that, so it's eyes only.

If they can play a knockoff game against some of the best in the league, every other line wins matchups, and special teams win theirs, and that's where the PK becomes a focus, because have to say PP is working so far, and that seems like the recipe for winning games.

Kupari being able to take draws on the right side knocks Scheif's defensive responsibilities down this year. Lowry on the left side, still struggling, his faceoff rate is similar to Namestnikov's but you know Adam Lowry is going to be solid in every other aspect of the defensive game.

The last game didn't count against that line because Scheif was out there, and I don't know if that was an extended shift, or a quick line change in the 2nd, but I think it's a frame of the issue. Ehlers and Perfetti are relied upon for secondary scoring, and they are ok, the San Jose game padded their stats, and they have been streaky. Ehlers has been great on the PP, and that's a big deal. Not a reason to panic when you only 5 losses on the season but something to watch.

 

[DRW204]

Yeah I don't agree that anyone on that line is a big problem. We are a .800 pts % tram right now. We can use some of that good grace to let a young guy play his way out of a slump.

I'm not opposed to Perfetti being a trade chip for a dman. Beats sending our former top ten pick to the press box again.

I doubt the Jets trade him. They seldom move players unless they want out. How many Jets players have been traded outside of that scenario?
He still has cache of a top 10 pick and has talent, so they'll keep on trying to make it work. However he's probably been the most disappointing top 6F. My pushback is moreso on those saying Namestnikov has been this or that and whatnot...hes actually putting the puck in the net on that second line.

 

[Jets 31]

One thing to consider for the Jets is that they have a particular style and system, and they need players that can fit in (especially if they are in the bottom-6. Appleton isn't great, but he's fast and smart on the forecheck and he's not expensive. The Jets made the mistake last year of acquiring Monahan and Toffoli and they didn't play the high-pace, high pressure style that had been so effective. I think that they could plug Chibrikov or Lambert into a winger position this season and they would do fine. If they are going to go for a big upgrade, it should be for a big, fast and effective 2C (for Ehlers and Perfetti) or a difference-maker on D (instead of DeMelo, maybe). The only caveat is that it would probably be Miller that would end up in the press box and he's actually been been one of the better D for the Jets. DeMelo has struggled a lot this s season, but will likely not be benched if they acquire another D.

Agreed, if we had a better second defenseman to play with Morrissey and be able to drop DeMelo to the 3rd pairing that would be great. Easier said than done i know but i think that would really help this team.

 

[Whileee]

Agreed, if we had a better second defenseman to play with Morrissey and be able to drop DeMelo to the 3rd pairing that would be great. Easier said than done i know but i think that would really help this team.

I'm not sure DeMelo is better than Miller at this point (for the 3rd pairing). He's struggled in almost every part of his game. He's getting beat on the rush, losing his coverage in the D zone, and he's been really shaky with the puck. It's been a remarkable drop in performance over the past couple of seasons. Morrissey has kept that pair above water, but unless DeMelo turns his game around I think the Jets will be in trouble when the games get faster and harder down the stretch.

When Pionk's game nose-dived you could tell that some of his struggles were physical as his mobility was limited. With DeMelo it just seems that he's lost his decision-making and sharpness with the puck. So many of his passes are either completely off or off enough to cause Morrissey and others to have to hesitate or stop to corral it. At this point, I'm not convinced that Salomonsson wouldn't be as good as DeMelo with Morrissey.

 

[roccerfeller]

Yeah. Not sure what’s up with DeMelo this year so far. I don’t think overall he’s been bad but he’s not as good as last year (at least so far)

 

[Flair Hay]

Also I find zone starts misleading as most shifts start on the fly anyhow.

They have some value, don't want to dismiss them or look into them too deeply. We see eye to eye on this I think

I doubt the Jets trade him. They seldom move players unless they want out. How many Jets players have been traded outside of that scenario?
He still has cache of a top 10 pick and has talent, so they'll keep on trying to make it work. However he's probably been the most disappointing top 6F. My pushback is moreso on those saying Namestnikov has been this or that and whatnot...hes actually putting the puck in the net on that second line.

Agreed. He seems to be undervalued for what he brings.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Appleton takes a lot of shit on these boards but he scored more points than Nino or Lowry last season.

He's been mostly great in his role this season.

 

[sipowicz]

Appleton takes a lot of shit on these boards but he scored more points than Nino or Lowry last season.

Yes, Appleton the perfect 4th liner!