Speculation: 2024-25 Roster thread

[robbieboy3686]

Personally, I disagree with a lot of this list. Zegras and Minty are way too low. Killorn and Johnston too high. Helleson hasn't played enough to earn that top ranking. For me:

Stock Way Up: Dostal, Gibson, Zellweger, Leason
Stock Up: Carlsson, Helleson, Zegras, Mintyukov, Lundestrom, Gauthier
Stock Flat: Dumoulin, McGinn, LaCombe, Terry, Harkins
Stock Down: Johnston, Killorn, Vatrano, Fabbri, Storme
Stock Way Down: McTavish, Fowler, Gudas

Helleson simply getting in nhl games is why he’s way up. I didn’t have the dude playing a single game for us this season. Have to agree with Stephen’s on helleson

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Agreed on Terry, he’s been the only consistent forward on the roster. Only a couple of truly off games.

I think Killorn has been two players though. He was horrible until whatever the system change was, then he’s got 7 points in the last 7 games. He also leads the team at +7. He still makes too many mistakes, but his points and goals have been of the useful and intentional, rather than the more pointless and random nature of say McTavish.

Strome is to me what he’s paid to be. A responsible middle 6 player, who comes with middle 6 flaws. If Vatrano had been even typical Vatrano his points totals would be fine.

I wonder if Killorn's effectiveness in scoring is due to the fact we don't "dump & chase" as much b/c he isn't exhausted and can keep up with the play. Gain entry, control play, and Killorn is the recipient of helping to put up points on the scoresheet.

 

[robbieboy3686]

I wonder if Killorn's effectiveness in scoring is due to the fact we don't "dump & chase" as much b/c he isn't exhausted and can keep up with the play. Gain entry, control play, and Killorn is the recipient of helping to put up points on the scoresheet.

Probably, and so far we have 2 seasons of killer starting slow but then turning it around. Other than his broken finger last season, part of his value has been that he’s a healthy player who doesn’t miss many games. If he can stay healthy and somewhat the player he is now. Then just like last season, his pay is totally on par for what a multiple stanley cup winning player brings to a young team

 

[TheDarkWingThatDucks]

Personally, I disagree with a lot of this list. Zegras and Minty are way too low. Killorn and Johnston too high. Helleson hasn't played enough to earn that top ranking. For me:

Stock Way Up: Dostal, Gibson, Zellweger, Leason
Stock Up: Carlsson, Helleson, Zegras, Mintyukov, Lundestrom, Gauthier
Stock Flat: Dumoulin, McGinn, LaCombe, Terry, Harkins
Stock Down: Johnston, Killorn, Vatrano, Fabbri, Storme
Stock Way Down: McTavish, Fowler, Gudas

This is totally nitpicking, but how can Johnston be down, do you just hate him being on our team and can’t objectively look at his season. He has 1 goal and 4 pts in 15 games on pace for 22 pts, and he has already matched his goal and point total from last year where he played 68 games. He is a plus 1 so far this year. While I personally did not want him playing 15 out of 21 games this year, if at all, I just don’t see how you can put his stock down, just screams of a biased list. He also averaged 2.04 hits per game last year and this year is averaging 3.73 hits.

Now I understand pts don’t tell the whole story, hence why I agree with your take on Zegras. But for how awful Johnston was last year, he deserves some flowers for being a competent NHL fourth line plug a most night.

 

[robbieboy3686]

This is totally nitpicking, but how can Johnston be down, do you just hate him being on our team and can’t objectively look at his season. He has 1 goal and 4 pts in 15 games on pace for 22 pts, and he has already matched his goal and point total from last year where he played 68 games. He is a plus 1 so far this year. While I personally did not want him playing 15 out of 21 games this year, if at all, I just don’t see how you can put his stock down, just screams of a biased list. He also averaged 2.04 hits per game last year and this year is averaging 3.73 hits.

Now I understand pts don’t tell the whole story, hence why I agree with your take on Zegras. But for how awful Johnston was last year, he deserves some flowers for being a competent NHL fourth line plug a most night.

Agree with the Johnston plug by Stephen’s. He’s fought less this season, but as an overall player has improved a lot.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

Sorry if this was covered in the GDT, but Killorn has beaten a goalie 3 times this year, each one on a pass from Zegras behind the net.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

Sorry if this was covered in the GDT, but Killorn has beaten a goalie 3 times this year, each one on a pass from Zegras behind the net.

I think he mentioned that himself in his post game interview with Ally.

 

[TheDarkWingThatDucks]

We praise the team when it's warranted, we criticize the team when warranted. We are all, ultimately, just passionate fans who want to see the team and the players succeed. Putting lipstick on a pig serves no one.



90% of the dog piling you describe is people just joking around.

I agree we should praise and criticize when it is warranted. I just don’t think Cronin and Verbeek deserve as much FIRE them they suck as they get almost everyday on this sub. And I don’t think most people are joking, I wish people were joking when they got mad at Verbeek for not getting Montgomery….. when no one knows if he tried, if he wanted to l get him, if anyone but the Blues had a serious chance.

I am not putting lipstick on a pig, but I can see the vision and the long term plan. We have people on this sub who want to say GC is ruining player development, when every Avalanche fan said once we signed him as our HC that his specialty is player development. The NHL is not supposed to be a development league, alas it’s what we are doing. Do I think Cronin is more or a less a stop gap to instill a hard work ethic, personal accountability, and a hockey is first and foremost a business type attitude, while also being hard on players for making mistakes, and yet allowing them some freedom to make them. (Zelly fumbling that puck leading to the game tying goal and being out there the next faceoff, comes to mind). This is a gradual process, and I think we need a kind of carrot or stick HC currently in our developmental stage.

I hope and pray Cronin leads us to the playoffs, I’m not holding my breath, but that doesn’t mean I don’t think he can serve a very valuable purpose for our rebuild, like Mark Jackson and the warriors.

Then with Verbeek, everyone says he doesn’t make any moves. Well, f***ing duh, we gutted the roster his first season to embrace the true rebuild. Iced an AHL defense his second year to try and get Bedard, and then iced the youngest Defense probably in the league last year, with 3 rookies making the opening night roster (2 of which were 20 or younger) and Zelly making the later in the year. Those are the years to sell at the deadline. He tried to add during FA this year and failed (honestly probably for the better), if we continue to play winning hockey the next couple months, I will be upset if he doesn’t add for a playoff push, but we haven’t been in a playoff push position, so we don’t know what he will do.

All I’m saying is player development isn’t linear, and a lot of the times don’t show up in the box score right away. I am a fan of both Verbeek and Cronin, and hope they can get us into the wagon I could see us becoming. I hope Cronin is along for the ride, but if he’s not, I still think he did job in terms of player development.

 

[ohcomeonref]

,

I agree we should praise and criticize when it is warranted. I just don’t think Cronin and Verbeek deserve as much FIRE them they suck as they get almost everyday on this sub. And I don’t think most people are joking, I wish people were joking when they got mad at Verbeek for not getting Montgomery….. when no one knows if he tried, if he wanted to l get him, if anyone but the Blues had a serious chance.

I am not putting lipstick on a pig, but I can see the vision and the long term plan. We have people on this sub who want to say GC is ruining player development, when every Avalanche fan said once we signed him as our HC that his specialty is player development. The NHL is not supposed to be a development league, alas it’s what we are doing. Do I think Cronin is more or a less a stop gap to instill a hard work ethic, personal accountability, and a hockey is first and foremost a business type attitude, while also being hard on players for making mistakes, and yet allowing them some freedom to make them. (Zelly fumbling that puck leading to the game tying goal and being out there the next faceoff, comes to mind). This is a gradual process, and I think we need a kind of carrot or stick HC currently in our developmental stage.

I hope and pray Cronin leads us to the playoffs, I’m not holding my breath, but that doesn’t mean I don’t think he can serve a very valuable purpose for our rebuild, like Mark Jackson and the warriors.

Then with Verbeek, everyone says he doesn’t make any moves. Well, f***ing duh, we gutted the roster his first season to embrace the true rebuild. Iced an AHL defense his second year to try and get Bedard, and then iced the youngest Defense probably in the league last year, with 3 rookies making the opening night roster (2 of which were 20 or younger) and Zelly making the later in the year. Those are the years to sell at the deadline. He tried to add during FA this year and failed (honestly probably for the better), if we continue to play winning hockey the next couple months, I will be upset if he doesn’t add for a playoff push, but we haven’t been in a playoff push position, so we don’t know what he will do.

All I’m saying is player development isn’t linear, and a lot of the times don’t show up in the box score right away. I am a fan of both Verbeek and Cronin, and hope they can get us into the wagon I could see us becoming. I hope Cronin is along for the ride, but if he’s not, I still think he did job in terms of player development.

Our opinions on Cronin will be an "agree to disagree" scenario, but I absolutely agree on Verbeek. I think he's been reasonably active, and I think he's made some homerun moves (acquiring Cutter). I also think his less than ideal signings are okay purely because the extra cap we spent won't end up hampering us when our window opens anyways. Plus, it's a well known thing that we have to overpay to bring in UFAs.

 

[TheDarkWingThatDucks]

,

Our opinions on Cronin will be an "agree to disagree" scenario, but I absolutely agree on Verbeek. I think he's been reasonably active, and I think he's made some homerun moves (acquiring Cutter). I also think his less than ideal signings are okay purely because the extra cap we spent won't end up hampering us when our window opens anyways. Plus, it's a well known thing that we have to overpay to bring in UFAs.

Agree to disagree is fine, but can you at least give me this. Whether or not Cronin is doing this is debatable for sure. Just because advanced stats / individual stats / etc are not drastically improving this year, that doesn’t mean that people aren’t developing properly. Like we can agree that some development might not show up on the stat sheet right away.

Now for why I think Cronin is doing well (even though you don’t need to change your mind)…. I’ve said it before in the Ally interview he said something like the hardest thing to do is get NHL game reps at the speed / intensity / strength / etc for these young players going against pros. Basically he said (my example) Kopitar has 1,300 games, he has down probably 800 + faceoffs after icing a puck tired, final minute of a period. (Cronin was mentioning puck battles). But there are 1,000 of little events in a game that kopitar has 1,300 games and if 1 a game 1,300 live NHL reps, where Leo has 70 ish games and 70 live NHL reps.

He specially mentioned he wants the boys to practice like they play to help take some of the unfamiliarity away, and while damn near impossible to replicate, really Cronin’s job is to get the boys the reps and instill the correct work ethic. IMO.

 

[TheDarkWingThatDucks]

And you don't consider this a problem? We were told this year was going to be better because the team would have a year of familiarity with Cronin and his expectations, a minimally changed and fully healthy roster comes out of camp with nothing "close to an identity," and you find this unworthy of any concern or criticism?

Cronin's repeated "I don't know" press conferences, his wanting to bring in a witch doctor to change the team's mindset because he can't do it? Players telling the media they don't know where their linemates are going to be? Changing the system in November? All of that is going according to plan, nothing whatsoever worthy of questioning?


Yeah look at all of us stupid fans here, acting like there's more to analyze about a team's performance (in a rebuilding and development year, even) than just the win/loss record. What a bunch of clueless morons.

This team is dead last in the league in xGA/60, third worst in SA/60, worst HDCA/60 by a wide margin (nearly half a high danger chance per game), bottom two in every single possession differential, and has the sixth best goaltending. (That's all at 5v5, if you include special teams it's actually the fifth-best overall goaltending.) Fancy stats aren't everything but the fancy stats, the counting stats, and the eye test are all pointing to the same conclusion. But no, how stupid and ignorant do we have to be to think the goaltending might be masking some major flaws even when we win?

We lose but looked like the better team? When has that happened, maybe twice? Chicago and Minnesota, both of whom were on the tail end of back to backs at the time? What a bunch of idiots we are for not basing our entire assessment of the team and coaching staff on that!


Man, it sure is a shame all the negativity on this board is upsetting someone as positive and uplifting as you.

For sure, some of the vitriol around here is over the top. I'm as tired as anyone of all the "our owners are too cheap to care about improving the team" stuff, among (several) other things. But there are valid alternatives outside of just playing Pollyanna and pretending everything is just peachy in Orange Country solely because the point share looks better.
There are a lot of flaws. The coaching, especially, has done very little to inspire confidence. Are we not supposed to notice?
A hockey discussion board, believe it or not, is where fans go to discuss hockey. When there's a lot of negative to discuss, a lot of the discussion is going to be negative. You don't like it? Maybe try posting some more positive things to discuss, if you can find anything other than point share. (Which I'm sure you can, there are some things! I believe in you!) Be the change you want to see, instead of this tirade about how everyone but you is a negative idiot loser.

First of all sir ….

Used wall of text ! It was not very effective…. Is the funniest thing I’ve seen. Hahahah.

Okay but really to the points….

Coming in without an identity is truly a valid complaint, my one problem is our top 6 played I believe 5 games last year as a unit, so not having an identity even though it’s a full year is excusable, in my mind…. But it is a fair point. To that point, concern and criticism is fine, the over the top, Verbeek sucks, fire Cronin, this team is doomed, Buffalo of the west…. Is what bothers me. Also although we gave up a shit ton of grade A scoring chances last game, I absolutely loved the physicality of that game. Verbeek said when he took the reins, “obviously, you’re going to need skill and skating ability, but deep down that’s the future I want to build, a hardworking, competitive team.” I believe that physicality we saw, was kind of the dream of how Verbeek wants to play, and I think Cronin is trying to instill the hardworking work ethic.

For the “I don’t know” post games, I understand the frustration, but can I ask do you know any coach or delves into the details, like what are the blackhawks and sharks coach saying, and what would he need to do for you to have confidence. Me personally (and this is just guessing) is a young inexperience coach not knowing how to express his frustration to the media properly. Not to say we need to have blind faith in him, just it’s not really on my top 20 list of worries with the team as a whole.

Yes wins and losses truly don’t matter this year in a developmental year, yes advanced stats matter and like you said aren’t the end all be all. Goaltending is masking a lot of flaws, but I’d argue recently we haven’t been getting outplayed a majority of the periods in a majority of games like we were earlier in the year. I don’t think fans are stupid for having concerns and discussing concerns. It’s more like the people made at Verbeek for not getting Montgomery, or saying he wanted to sign a top 6 RHW and top 4 RHD. He failed and we can discuss why that is, bad team, bad coach, Verbeek sucks. My humble opinion is that it was the first year since without a flat cap space since Covid and all the good teams had cap space to spend and it made it tougher to sign players without overpaying, plus Stamkos and Marsh having a phone call and deciding to team up hurt us too.

The point share isn’t my point to why I’m not upset, my point to why I’m not upset with the direction is because I am being patient. Zelly and Minty are 21 and playing top 4 minutes on this team. Leo is 19 playing an elevated role, we are the youngest team in the league with the minutes and roles we have our young players playing in. The problem is we are arguing a kinda impossible argument. I’m saying development is happening even if it’s not showing up in advanced stats and the stat sheet yet. People are saying it’s not happening and Cronin needs to be fired, which if it was the case I would agree.

And yes I need to be better about the tirade, just handled my frustration poorly as to a lot of negativity on this board. I’m just trying to preach patience with a fanbase that doesn’t seem to want to have any.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

Looks like we have a chance to ruin a Kings goalie prospect's debut

 

[robbieboy3686]

Looks like we have a chance to ruin a Kings goalie prospect's debut

We’re the worst team in the league, and have been since 2014 v backup goalies( but we’re even worse v backup goalies of teams playing back to back games) I guess the fact the kings didn’t play today, maybe our odds improve. Truly just baffling me for a decade this phenomena

 

[Hockey Duckie]

We had a more lunch pail talent down the middle in our last game: Mac, Strome, Lundy, and Harkins.

Two seasons ago, we had a back-to-back game set with St. Louis. In that game, we had Mac centering Strome as our 2nd line with Z as our top centerman. Every line save the 2nd line (Mac-Strome) were physically getting beat down for about two periods. It was Ducks 1, St. Louis 5 in the middle of the 2nd period. Eakins then separated Mac and Strome, putting Strome at 2C and Mac at 3C mid-way through the 2nd. That put Lundy down to 4C. The game settled down for the Ducks and didn't looked abused for the rest of the 2nd and 3rd period. Game 1: Ducks 2, St. Louis 6.

The second game of the back-to-back, Eakins kept the change down the middle and the game was far more respectable. The team lost 3-1, but one of those goals was an empty netter.

We had back-to-back games with Seattle. We blew leads in both games, but the Ducks played differently after giving up the leads between the two games. With Carlsson out of the lineup and Z playing wing, our centermen were very much lunch pail players with speed. Their tenacity worked on Seattle's defense in the Ozone and were were able to gain/retain possession in the Ozone.

Shot Metrics, 5v5
vs Seattle Gm 1

Shot Metrics, 5v5
vs Seattle Gm 2

---

In game 1, Anaheim did have more scoring chances and HD scoring chances. The problem was Anaheim didn't shoot enough to improve their expected goals: Ducks with 37 shots (Corsi), Seattle with 55 shots (Corsi).

In game 2, Anaheim matched with Seattle's shooting: Ducks with 53 shots (Corsi), Seattle with 52 shots (Corsi).

Maybe due to the team being more physical that they were able to not be caved in and able to match shot totals. The lunch pail centermen might fit Cronin's style more than the finesse centers of Z and Leo. Considering that Cronin's been an AHL coach, he doesn't get top-end, finesse forwards to stay long in the AHL.

 

[Kalv]

We have allowed the fewest goals in Pacific.

We have also scored the least by far tho. But that situation IMO is improving

 

[Hockey Duckie]

We have allowed the fewest goals in Pacific.

We have also scored the least by far tho. But that situation IMO is improving

Out of the 9 times we faced teams greater than .500 points record, we have scored 3 goals or more only twice. Scoring against those > .500 teams is Ducks 17 goals to Opponents 34.

After game 16 vs Detroit, we were going to face one >.500 team and the rest were sub-.500 at that time. I predicted we would go 4-1-0 with the lone loss being Dallas. We came away 3-1-1, with the loss against Seattle and an OTL with Buffalo. We blew leads away in both losses and only scored 2 goals in each loss. We're an inconsistent bunch that is highly reliant on our goaltenders.

Our next five games and their points %.

• vs LA (0.587 Pts %)
• vs Ott (0.477 Pts %)
• vs VGK (0,674 Pts %)
• vs Min (0.727 Pts %)
• at Mtl (0.432 Pts %)

We're facing a stronger quintet this time around. If we follow the chart pattern shared above, we could go 2-3-0 (4 pts). Let us see if the Ducks can score 3 or more goals against LA, VGK, and Minn as barometer for where the team is now.

 

[slippingsloth]

Out of the 9 times we faced teams greater than .500 points record, we have scored 3 goals or more only twice. Scoring against those > .500 teams is Ducks 17 goals to Opponents 34.

View attachment 937235​

After game 16 vs Detroit, we were going to face one >.500 team and the rest were sub-.500 at that time. I predicted we would go 4-1-0 with the lone loss being Dallas. We came away 3-1-1, with the loss against Seattle and an OTL with Buffalo. We blew leads away in both losses and only scored 2 goals in each loss. We're an inconsistent bunch that is highly reliant on our goaltenders.

Our next five games and their points %.

• vs LA (0.587 Pts %)
• vs Ott (0.477 Pts %)
• vs VGK (0,674 Pts %)
• vs Min (0.727 Pts %)
• at Mtl (0.432 Pts %)

We're facing a stronger quintet this time around. If we follow the chart pattern shared above, we could go 2-3-0 (4 pts). Let us see if the Ducks can score 3 or more goals against LA, VGK, and Minn as barometer for where the team is now.

View attachment 937236​

Yeah. Agree 3 goals is the bar I measure the offense

500pts percentage for the ducks coming out of this stretch (2-2-1) is my cautious hope but agree 2-3 is more likely. Would be nice to pot a couple points vs another good team(Ala the stars game). Will be at LAK . I am 500 watching live this season.

This has been a weird season to watch. 500 due to goaltending but there are embers starting offensively. Will the offense pickup the slack when our goalies become more average(note the when not if)?

Don’t know but 500 at the end of season would be monstrous improvement yoy

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Yeah. Agree 3 goals is the bar I measure the offense

500pts percentage for the ducks coming out of this stretch (2-2-1) is my cautious hope but agree 2-3 is more likely. Would be nice to pot a couple points vs another good team(Ala the stars game). Will be at LAK . I am 500 watching live this season.

This has been a weird season to watch. 500 due to goaltending but there are embers starting offensively. Will the offense pickup the slack when our goalies become more average(note the when not if)?

Don’t know but 500 at the end of season would be monstrous improvement yoy

The next games will be interesting if we're going with the lunch pail middle group of Mac, Strome, Lundy, and Harkins. We gotta see if it was a fluke or something to build upon. Cronin might have stumbled upon something by injury.

 

[ScarTroy]

The next games will be interesting if we're going with the lunch pail middle group of Mac, Strome, Lundy, and Harkins. We gotta see if it was a fluke or something to build upon. Cronin might have stumbled upon something by injury.

Putting Mac in the lunch pail middle group makes me sad. Thought this was gonna be his breakout season. Lucky he’s still got a decent points pace and can easily improve on that if he can snap out of what is holding him back.

 

[FiveTacos]

Look, there's been signs of progress. Sure, we've gone from historically bad to just "normal" bad but that IS progress.

If you want to be at a point where most games we're at least playing even with opponents or close to it, well unfortunately that ain't gonna happen until multiple young guys take a big step forward to become not just "hey he's looking pretty good for his age," to "he's one of the better players at his position in the entire league." That's just how it is.

And we sure aren't going to become that level of team while icing 4 dmen who are 1st or 2nd year guys. Good teams maybe break in one or two young dmen, not 4, with more on the way.

Tired of the rebuild? Want to get to competence faster? Pick one or two of the young D that you're keeping, trade the rest. Pick 2 Cs to build around, and one winger (either Gauthier or Sennecke) and trade the rest. Package this year's first too. Hell, trade Dostal, keep Gibson. Target older players from teams that were good but are now sliding out of contention and need a rebuilding jumpstart, who would gladly take several highly regarded youngsters in exchange for expensive vets. If you start selling off Dostal, all but one of Minty/Zell/Luneau/Solberg/Smith/Helleson/Lacombe, one of McT/Zegras, one of Sennecke/Gauthier ... you're going to get quite the bounty of good veterans on a return. Instant playoff team, frankly. We'll be capped out, it'll probably fall apart in 2-3 years, but we'll absolutely have fun in the interim. And then we can try to retool on the fly like in the Murray days.