Blue Jays Discussion: 2024-25 Off-season: The free agent watch begins (and sometimes old baseball radio broadcasts)

[Dr.Funk]

MLB.com’s John Denton reports that Arenado would okay a deal to any of the Angels, Dodgers, Padres, Phillies, Mets, or Red Sox.

 

[Larcos_Unal]

What a bunch of BS. Pardon me, but I ain’t getting excited about Gimenez and Yimi. They plan to compete with Kirk as the cleanup hitter. May as well just rebuild at this point. What are we doing here?

If you go into the season with Kirk as your cleanup hitter you may as well waive the white flag

 

[saska sault]

Arenado wouldn't make sense unless St Louis is eating a large chunk of his contract. He's a declining asset on a bloated contract.

 

[Discoverer]

Giménez is a glove-first second baseman, an archetype that we've found has historically been valued significantly lower than a straight $/WAR

What they're saying is that the defense first archetype is overvalued in $/WAR calculation (the point I've been making) - meaning the WAR figure is inflated for this archetype.

This is why they're placing such negative value on his contract. It wouldn't make sense to interpret that statement the way you are suggesting given their drastically negative valuation of the deal compared to the guy's $/WAR, which is extremely favourable at under $4m per WAR.

The fact that teams haven't historically paid for this type of player doesn't mean the WAR is inflated. It means it's not something teams have valued in the past.

You're drawing a conclusion based off of that - that teams have been right all along in not valuing 2B defense. I don't know whether they're right or wrong about it. But, I mean... we just saw the Dodgers give Tommy Edman, with nearly identical career numbers to Gimenez (only 4 years older) $74 million. So maybe it's actually changing.

 

[Dr.Funk]

Arenado wouldn't make sense unless St Louis is eating a large chunk of his contract. He's a declining asset on a bloated contract.

Even then I'm not sure I want to watch another Springer like decline for 3 more years

 

[LaP]

I'll say about the Garcia/Gimenez signing what i said about the IKF signing last year and the Varsho trade the previous year. You should start by signing or trading for the top players you might need and then fill the holes. You shoud keep all your ressources, assets and internal cap left, and dedicate them to this task of acquiring the top players. If you start by acquiring depth then you are doing it wrong imo.

I feel like if there was a possibility to acquire a real closer and middle of the order bat they would have keep the internal cap and dedicate all they could to fill those needs. I think they'll head into next season with Green, Garcia and Swanson as closers and what they have to bat behind Vlad and Bo which obviously wont be enough to make the playoffs. At this point they should have simply stand pat and retool. It's what they should have done last year too. Vlad and Bo were young enough for a quick retool.

 

[saska sault]

Even then I'm not sure I want to watch another Springer like decline for 3 more years

Exactly, Toronto has declining assets in Springer and Bassit to a lesser extent. That's enough salary tied up in those kind of players. These were supposed to be the competitive years when you understood the player isn't worth what your paying him but you already had a run at a championship or 2, and that's the price of business on the back end of those contracts. Unfortunately yet to even get a post season W from those guys.

 

[LaP]

Gimenez would have been 2nd on the team in RBIs and 1st in stolen bases last year. He is actually an upgrade over what we had folks, the rest of the team is the problem...not acquiring a platinum glove middle infielder who doesn't hit for power.

Management still stinks but IMO this improves the team. When was the last time anyone this talented was in the infield? Tulo was pretty cooked by the time he got here, Chapman is a different position but below Gimenez likely.

There's a limited amount of ressources (assets and internal cap) a team can dedicate into acquiring players and a limited amount of spot in the lineup available to field players, There's now less of both to get a middle of the order bat. It's like the signing of IKF last year. Not a bad player but doesn't answer the biggest need of the team. I think Gimenez is better than IKF but unless the Jays gets 2022 Gimenez that wont be enough. He's young so there's a chance he can find his mojo.

 

[saska sault]

There's a limited amount of ressources (assets and internal cap) a team can dedicate into acquiring players and a limited amount of spot in the lineup available to field players, There's now less of both to get a middle of the order bat. It's like the signing of IKF last year. Not a bad player but doesn't answer the biggest need of the team. I think Gimenez is better than IKF but unless the Jays gets 2022 Gimenez that wont be enough. He's young so there's a chance he can find his mojo.

I agree the current make up of the team makes little sense. I'm hoping they made the Gimenez move because Clevland was unloading him one way or another at that moment and not because Toronto was desperate.... wishful thinking possibly.

 

[LaP]

I think the Jays will go after a DH with upside. It probably won't be someone expensive like Joc or Walker, but someone like Jesse Winker or Paul Goldschmidt could make sense if they come in at a good price. They'll probably need to dig in again to find value if we're following last years script.

I don't think they will. The Jays have needed a good DH for a while now and they always resorted to plan Z to fill this need. I expect a 35-40 years old over the hill DH to be signed at the end of winter.

 

[Kurtz]

Are we sure Shi and BNS actually have sources in the FO? Not saying this because they aren’t reporting what I want to hear. But it seems like they are always last

They get their news from the FO whereas guys like Passan get their news from the Agents. Passan's career is based on being first to break news so agents are more eager to reach out to him quickly to keep a mutually beneficial relationship going (Passan can then pump a free agent's tires to return the favour).

This FO doesn't really have this same concern so they're not in much of a hurry to reach out to SHI & BNS, so what likely happens is those guys see someone like Passan break the news and then they make calls to the FO to get the details.

 

[Suntouchable13]

I don't think they will. The Jays have needed a good DH for a while now and they always resorted to plan Z to fill this need. I expect a 35-40 years old over the hill DH to be signed at the end of winter.

Carlos Santana is the guy then.

 

[GoonieFace]

If you go into the season with Kirk as your cleanup hitter you may as well waive the white flag

He is a heavy hitter, which is what you want in the cleanup spot

 

[Suntouchable13]

If they don't trust Vladdy, why didn't they trade him then? Now they are going to let him walk for free?

 

[landy92mack29]

The fact that teams haven't historically paid for this type of player doesn't mean the WAR is inflated. It means it's not something teams have valued in the past.

You're drawing a conclusion based off of that - that teams have been right all along in not valuing 2B defense. I don't know whether they're right or wrong about it. But, I mean... we just saw the Dodgers give Tommy Edman, with nearly identical career numbers to Gimenez only 4 years old, $74 million. So maybe it's actually changing.

It's the same thing in hockey where OFD get paid more than DFD but I'd much rather have a DFD. I'm sure the same people would rather have a Ben Revere type than Matt Chapman...

Management deserves blame for walking the 2 home grown stars to FA instead of signing them long term years ago but this was a good trade.

 

[red devil]

 

[Puckstuff]

I don't think they will. The Jays have needed a good DH for a while now and they always resorted to plan Z to fill this need. I expect a 35-40 years old over the hill DH to be signed at the end of winter.

Well, I think a good DH would be someone like Joc Pederson. I'm setting my expectations super low with someone like Jesse Winker or a 37-year-old Goldschmidt. If we can't meet that standard, yikes.

I'll say about the Garcia/Gimenez signing what i said about the IKF signing last year and the Varsho trade the previous year. You should start by signing or trading for the top players you might need and then fill the holes. You shoud keep all your ressources, assets and internal cap left, and dedicate them to this task of acquiring the top players. If you start by acquiring depth then you are doing it wrong imo.

I feel like if there was a possibility to acquire a real closer and middle of the order bat they would have keep the internal cap and dedicate all they could to fill those needs. I think they'll head into next season with Green, Garcia and Swanson as closers and what they have to bat behind Vlad and Bo which obviously wont be enough to make the playoffs. At this point they should have simply stand pat and retool. It's what they should have done last year too. Vlad and Bo were young enough for a quick retool.

I couldn't agree more.

I actually appreciate players like Giménez and Varsho, who are WAR-heavy, defensive-first types, but only when they’re acquired with surplus value—not when they’re brought in as core pieces to replace players like Teoscar Hernández, rather than complement them.

This management group would likely have no problem paying a 26-year-old Kevin Pillar $20 million in 2025 for his defensive contributions. While a 26 year old Pillar's 5.2 bWAR might compare to an offensive star like Teoscar Hernández, we all know that equating the two is completely absurd.

If it's a choice between the two, I'll prioritize addressing the primary offensive need first and then build out the rest of the team, rather than following an ideological approach that results in overpaying and not filling my most pressing need.

It's still early, but Shi Davidi has speculated that the Jays might limit spending to the first CBT threshold. This would leave only $13 million in flexibility, which doesn’t bode well for 2025 if true.

 

[Discoverer]

It's the same thing in hockey where OFD get paid more than DFD but I'd much rather have a DFD. I'm sure the same people would rather have a Ben Revere type than Matt Chapman...

Management deserves blame for walking the 2 home grown stars to FA instead of signing them long term years ago but this was a good trade.

I don't like this trade at the moment because they subtracted from an area of need to improve the team's greatest strength, which is a super weird direction to go. I'm not gonna say I'm pissed off about it yet because Gimenez is a really good player, but they way I'll ultimately look at the trade is heavily based on what they do the rest of the offseason. I felt the same way last year after the Kiermaier/IKF/Turner deals, and we know what they did with the rest of that offseason.

 

[LaP]

Well, I think a good DH would be someone like Joc Pederson. I'm setting my expectations super low with someone like Jesse Winker or a 37-year-old Goldschmidt. If we can't meet that standard, yikes.

I couldn't agree more.

I actually appreciate players like Giménez and Varsho, who are WAR-heavy, defensive-first types, but only when they’re acquired with surplus value—not when they’re brought in as core pieces to replace players like Teoscar Hernández, rather than complement them.

This management group would likely have no problem paying a 26-year-old Kevin Pillar $20 million in 2025 for his defensive contributions. While a 26 year old Pillar's 5.2 bWAR might compare to an offensive star like Teoscar Hernández, we all know that equating the two is completely absurd.

If it's a choice between the two, I'll prioritize addressing the primary offensive need first and then build out the rest of the team, rather than following an ideological approach that results in overpaying and not filling my most pressing need.

It's still early, but Shi Davidi has speculated that the Jays might limit spending to the first CBT threshold. This would leave only $13 million in flexibility, which doesn’t bode well for 2025 if true.

It's all about needs. I don't think defense is more valuable than offense or that offense is more valuable than defense. It's all about what you need and finding proper balance. I've been very vocal about my disdain for Atkins the past two seasons but i have nothing against the players he acquired they are good players they are just not very good fit.

When it comes to batting the main need has been for the last 2 years a dominant DH able to hit 30 HR and run 100 batters in. Someone pitchers are afraid of. Someone the pitcher will think about 2-3 batters in advance. Obviously it's very hard to find and sometime you have to cut corners but nobody Atkins acquired in the last 2 years come close to filling this need.

There was other needs (speed on base, defense, fastball in the bp, ...) but i think they were less important to fill. I like Bo but he's a career middling 800 OPS guy who is slow on base. He can't be your number 1 or 2 along with Vlad. The only solid 800+ OPS hitter the Jays have atm is Vlad. That's not enough. They need a guy batting either in front or behind vlad that will make the pitchers think about it.

Right now it's easy to face the Jays. If you are ever in trouble when you get to Vlad you can just throw around him since nobody behind can clear the base anyway. What makes it even worse is one of the guy batting behind is slower than my 84 years old mom. If i was a pitcher and i'd look at the Jays lineup i'd be very confident. Just throw around Vlad and you'll be fine most nights.

 

[smitty10]

What a bunch of BS. Pardon me, but I ain’t getting excited about Gimenez and Yimi. They plan to compete with Kirk as the cleanup hitter. May as well just rebuild at this point. What are we doing here?

The off season is just starting. Why not wait and see how else they add to the roster before giving up?

They just added a gold glove 2nd baseman and 2 bullpen arms. These are steps in the right direction to build a very good team.

 

[dredeye]

Are the people complaining about the Giminez contract the same people that always say I don’t care it’s not my money? It’s not great that we got all the expensive years and there wasn’t a kicker in it.

The off season is just starting. Why not wait and see how else they add to the roster before giving up?

They just added a gold glove 2nd baseman and 2 bullpen arms. These are steps in the right direction to build a very good team.

I don’t disagree however history has not proven kind to that line of thinking around here

 

[Suntouchable13]

The off season is just starting. Why not wait and see how else they add to the roster before giving up?

They just added a gold glove 2nd baseman and 2 bullpen arms. These are steps in the right direction to build a very good team.

I don't disagree with you. But, Atkins' arrogance really pisses me off. "Oh, we're gonna fix him" There is no one shred of evidence they can do anything to unlock a hitter's hidden potential. Look at Varsho.

 

[Puckstuff]

I don't like this trade at the moment because they subtracted from an area of need to improve the team's greatest strength, which is a super weird direction to go. I'm not gonna say I'm pissed off about it yet because Gimenez is a really good player, but they way I'll ultimately look at the trade is heavily based on what they do the rest of the offseason. I felt the same way last year after the Kiermaier/IKF/Turner deals, and we know what they did with the rest of that offseason.

I think even if Giménez works out, we still overpaid for him. This should have been a buy-low type of trade, imo.

The BTV model, which has Horwitz (+28) and Giménez (-33.6) in positive/negative surplus trade value, might be a bit extreme. They could be overlooking Giménez's defense, but it still feels like we're giving up a good surplus-value player for a negative one, even if it’s not as extreme as BTV has it.

*BTV has Giménez listed as a negative-value player, while WAR sees him as very valuable which suggests he’s worth the contract.

 

[Discoverer]

It’s not great that we got all the expensive years and there wasn’t a kicker in it.

The contract situation is reminiscent of Reyes/Buehrle, where the signing team got a cheap year out of them then flipped them to Toronto as the contracts started to escalate.

 

[TheTotalPackage]

If they don't trust Vladdy, why didn't they trade him then? Now they are going to let him walk for free?

Where is this notion that management doesn't trust Vladdy coming from.

Not pinpointing you, as I've seen it suggested a few times now in the last few pages. Is this speculation, or something that was said?

I cannot fathom management running the risk of playing such a high stakes game now with their franchise player. Losing Vladdy will result in a lot of lost trust amongst fans (rightfully so).