There's a very good chance Ovie elevates that record to a new level of untouchable. He has been clear for about a decade that he wants to finish his playing career back home. If Washington puts up a good showing in the playoffs, i bet he comes back for one last kick at the can which probably puts the record at minimum, in the 930s.
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Mostly everyone on this list is approaching retirement and/or have declined as one does with age. The only two guys with a remote shot are Matthews (age 27) and Draisaitl. (Age 29)
Screwing around with the math, Matthews (i feel he probably has the most "realistic" chance) would essentially have to do what Ovechkin did, but better. He would need to average 50 goals up until his age 37 season while avoiding;
- Rapid, usually typical decline once you hit the mid 30s. Ovie and his ol nemesis Crosby are unicorns in this regard.
- Durability: Matthews injury concerns i think are a bit overblown. He's not Ovie level durable (who is though?) but he's also not made of glass. Still, any hope of chasing the record will demand him playing 70+ games for the majority of his career. His problem is more in the fact he seems to rack up smaller, nagging injuries that slow his pace down.
- Weird unforeseen events screwing with the schedule; Ovie lost his true rookie season to a lockout, then another 30 games to a half lockout, then essentially a full season worth of games to COVID. The fact he still got there with potentially time to spare to pad the record is incredible.
I personally don't think anyone catches him in my lifetime (especially if he pads it) and if there is somebody who can, they likely haven't even been born yet.
So glad i got to witness it regardless.
